Kailen Hamson — OGILVIE

Kailen Hamson P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 188 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 138

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%20.8%

BB%17.0%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP33

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	31	4	67	349	72	69	6	13%	2.2	15.3%	23.3%	-8.1%	2.2%	6.82	5.99	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	31	4	67	349	72	69	6	13%	2.2	15.3%	23.3%	-8.1%	2.2%	6.82	5.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	BAL	31	4	67	349	72	69	6	13%	2.2	20.6%	19.8%	0.9%	1.7%	6.82	4.81	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BAL	64	0	67	282	60	41	8	0%	1.0	21.4%	14.7%	6.8%	3.0%	5.25	5.15	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	64	0	67	282	61	40	8	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.2%	7.6%	3.0%	5.12	5.07	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	63	0	66	277	61	39	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	14.1%	7.8%	3.0%	5.07	5.07	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	61	0	64	269	59	38	8	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.1%	7.7%	3.1%	5.10	5.14	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	BAL	28	0	29	122	26	18	4	0%	1.0	21.4%	14.7%	6.8%	3.0%	5.25	5.15	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	42	0	44	186	40	26	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.2%	7.6%	3.0%	5.12	5.07	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	49	0	51	215	47	30	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	14.1%	7.8%	3.0%	5.07	5.07	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	51	0	54	228	50	32	7	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.1%	7.7%	3.1%	5.10	5.14	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	747	163	106	23	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.2%	7.6%	3.0%	5.12	4.72	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	120	26	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.2%	7.6%	3.0%	5.12	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		31	4	67	349	53	81	8	13%	2.2	15.3%	23.3%	-8.1%	2.2%	6.82	5.99	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	12	200	1037	158	242	23	13%	2.2	15.3%	23.3%	-8.1%	2.2%	6.82	5.99	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kailen Hamson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	20.8%	17.0%	3.0%	—	5.10	21.7%	7.4%	199	-0.40	—	—	—
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	83
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	83
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	82
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	81
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	80
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	80
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	80
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	79
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	79
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	79
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	79
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	79
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	78
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	78
Randy Labaut L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	23.2%	14.0%	3.7%	.240	4.68	19.1%	5.7%	190	-0.27	1.91	302	78
Caleb Frare L 2017 · 5.45 FIP	24	SU	5.45	22.6%	21.3%	2.9%	.307	3.14	28.0%	15.6%	80	-2.31	2.27	237	77
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	77
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	77
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	76
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	21.6%	14.6%	1.17	5.18
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22