Player 834294 P FCL Nationals
Age — —HP ROK peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 29 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINST108
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
K%23.3%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
K: +1.9 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+2KBB: +0.9 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+1BBCONTACT: +3.6 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+4CONTACTSTAM: +4.8 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+5STAMTotal WAR: +1.17 (71 IP)+1.2WAR
0.10.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career (MLE) + Projections

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026ROKDSL Nationals1211421714412092%3.517.5%8.8%8.7%0.0%2.572.73+0.9
ROSMLBWSH552912429114100%5.923.3%9.2%14.1%3.0%4.314.31+0.1
2026 TotalMLBWSH712957323424.7%7.9%16.8%1.3%3.293.38+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202725MLBWSH553012630114100%6.023.7%8.9%14.7%3.0%4.274.24+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career1211421713015092%3.517.5%8.8%8.7%0.0%2.572.73+0.9
/ 200 IP575220081414371092%3.517.5%8.8%8.7%0.0%2.572.73+6.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Player 834294 (OGILVIE) 4.31 23.3%9.2%3.0%
Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.18 FIP 24 SP 3.18 22.5%6.7%2.1%.289 3.78 20.9%13.1%225 +0.60 3.18 256 86
Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP 25 SP 4.39 23.0%10.5%3.5%.335 4.65 21.4%11.7%382 +0.26 3.67 509 79
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP 25 SP 3.98 26.8%8.1%3.9%.325 3.63 209 78
Peter Van Loon R 2026 · 3.14 FIP 25 SP 3.14 25.5%11.9%1.2%.303 4.30 21.1%10.5%53 +1.16 2.47 256 77
Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP 24 SP- 4.80 25.7%12.4%4.2%.296 3.43 18.7%10.3%40 -1.37 2.78 181 74
Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP 26 SP- 3.92 24.5%9.5%3.1%.232 5.11 17.5%6.2%190 +1.19 3.92 233 73
Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP 25 SP- 4.42 23.3%10.7%3.5%.225 4.42 102 73
Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP 25 SP 3.55 20.4%10.4%1.6%.286 5.51 25.3%9.1%58 +1.96 3.29 142 72
Brooks Auger R 2025 · 3.81 FIP 24 SP 3.81 26.3%11.9%2.6%.340 3.81 138 71
Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP 27 SP 3.60 18.8%11.2%1.2%.328 3.63 20.6%11.3%170 +0.03 3.22 254 71
Sauryn Lao R 2026 · 3.48 FIP 25 SP- 3.48 21.7%7.3%2.4%.297 3.19 182 70
Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP 25 SP- 3.81 19.2%5.7%2.9%.311 6.73 17.6%-0.7%51 +2.92 3.81 106 70
River Ryan R 2026 · 3.34 FIP 25 SP 3.34 23.6%10.4%1.7%.280 2.13 23.9%18.6%36 -1.21 2.13 218 70
Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP 24 SP 5.06 23.6%10.4%4.8%.259 3.77 258 70
Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP 27 SP 3.94 19.5%12.6%1.6%.234 4.41 22.2%10.5%192 +0.47 3.39 382 70
Aidan Foeller R 2025 · 4.45 FIP 24 SP 4.45 23.4%10.6%3.6%.218 4.45 149 70
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.64 FIP 25 SP 4.64 20.4%12.2%3.1%.283 4.15 18.9%11.0%79 -0.49 3.87 247 70
Jackson Finley R 2026 · 3.85 FIP 25 SP 3.85 20.7%9.3%2.4%.346 3.85 132 70
Logan Tabeling R 2025 · 3.16 FIP 24 SP 3.16 24.6%11.5%1.2%.263 3.16 113 70
Sean Mooney R 2025 · 4.82 FIP 24 SP- 4.82 24.7%13.5%3.8%.277 3.45 102 70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION23023.5%9.1%1.154.29
Noé Ramirez ('22)55224.8%9.0%1.334.19
Randall Delgado ('17)37022.2%9.2%0.903.78
David Hernandez ('19)55425.0%7.9%1.144.10
Zach McAllister ('18)45724.8%7.9%1.143.63
Santiago Casilla ('18)45223.5%9.6%0.963.49
Carlos Torres ('17)37120.1%9.0%0.973.77