Noah Edders — OGILVIE

Noah Edders P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 232 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%22.1%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	3	0	5	18	9	2	0	0%	1.7	50.0%	11.1%	38.9%	0.0%	1.80	0.29	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	3	0	5	18	9	2	0	0%	1.7	50.0%	11.1%	38.9%	0.0%	1.80	0.29	—
2025	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	3	0	5	18	9	2	0	0%	1.7	50.0%	11.1%	38.9%	0.0%	1.80	0.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	21	15	70	305	76	29	6	71%	3.3	18.6%	10.6%	8.0%	2.4%	4.78	4.22	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	21	15	70	305	76	29	6	71%	3.3	18.6%	10.6%	8.0%	2.4%	4.78	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	CHC	18	15	62	266	67	24	5	83%	3.5	25.2%	9.0%	16.2%	1.9%	3.75	3.15	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CHC	3	0	7	39	9	5	1	0%	2.4	23.1%	12.8%	10.3%	2.6%	13.50	4.18	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	70	295	67	28	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	9.4%	13.5%	3.0%	4.41	4.36	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	71	299	70	27	9	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.1%	14.2%	2.9%	4.33	4.28	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	71	299	70	27	9	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.0%	14.4%	2.9%	4.29	4.26	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	70	294	69	27	9	100%	5.8	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.30	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	68	285	67	26	9	100%	6.1	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	3.1%	4.35	4.39	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	65	273	63	26	9	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	3.2%	4.45	4.52	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	30	127	29	12	4	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.4%	13.5%	2.8%	4.35	4.30	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	47	198	46	18	6	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.1%	14.2%	2.8%	4.27	4.22	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	56	236	55	21	7	100%	6.2	23.5%	9.0%	14.4%	2.8%	4.23	4.20	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	59	249	58	23	7	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	2.9%	4.24	4.24	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	60	253	59	23	8	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	3.0%	4.29	4.33	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	59	249	57	24	8	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	3.1%	4.38	4.45	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	311	1314	306	121	39	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.2%	14.0%	2.9%	4.29	3.91	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	197	78	25	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.2%	14.0%	2.9%	4.29	3.91	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		24	15	75	323	66	34	7	62%	3.1	20.4%	10.7%	9.7%	2.3%	4.58	4.00	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	40	200	865	176	92	20	62%	3.1	20.4%	10.7%	9.7%	2.3%	4.58	4.00	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Edders (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	22.1%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.30	23.2%	14.0%	212	-0.20	—	—	—
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	88
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	87
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	86
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	85
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	85
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	82
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	81
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	80
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	80
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	587	80
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	80
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	79
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	79
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	78
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	78
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	63	23.2%	9.3%	1.17	4.36
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93