Ethan Walker

P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	18	6	55	3.62	2.84	30.3%	14.8%	—	K 22.6% · BB 17.2% · FIP 4.01
2027PROJ	23	MLBBOS	34	0	36	5.08	5.08	22.9%	15.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBBOS	21	0	22	4.86	4.76	23.5%	13.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBBOS	32	0	34	4.67	4.56	23.8%	12.4%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsMark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Colby Langford (age 22) · Dante Biasi (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113122vR 130

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%22.9%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%7.1%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	6	55	244	74	36	2	33%	3.0	22.6%	17.2%	5.4%	1.2%	3.62	4.01	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	6	55	244	74	36	2	33%	3.0	22.6%	17.2%	5.4%	1.2%	3.62	4.01	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	6	55	244	74	36	2	33%	3.0	30.3%	14.8%	15.6%	0.8%	3.62	2.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BOS	34	0	36	152	35	24	4	0%	1.1	22.9%	15.8%	7.1%	2.8%	5.08	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	48	0	50	213	50	29	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	13.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.86	4.76	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	49	0	51	215	51	27	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	12.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.56	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	49	0	51	215	52	26	6	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.2%	11.8%	2.8%	4.58	4.53	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	21	0	22	93	22	13	3	0%	1.0	23.5%	13.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.86	4.76	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	32	0	34	144	34	18	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.56	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	38	0	40	169	41	21	5	0%	1.1	24.0%	12.2%	11.8%	2.8%	4.58	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	0	96	404	96	51	11	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.6%	11.2%	2.8%	4.67	4.21	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	107	23	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.6%	11.2%	2.8%	4.67	4.21	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		18	6	55	244	55	42	3	33%	3.0	22.6%	17.2%	5.4%	1.2%	3.62	4.01	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	22	200	893	202	154	10	33%	3.0	22.6%	17.2%	5.4%	1.2%	3.62	4.01	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Walker (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	22.9%	15.8%	2.8%	—	4.62	23.8%	11.0%	152	-0.46	—	—	—
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	84
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	82
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	81
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	79
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	79
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	78
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	78
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	78
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	77
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	77
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	76
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	75
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	74
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.26	33.2%	19.8%	102	-1.31	2.95	256	73
Matt Walker L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	16.7%	13.3%	1.5%	.324	4.62	15.5%	4.0%	94	+0.41	4.21	156	73
Marino Santy L 2024 · 4.80 FIP	22	SW	4.80	17.6%	16.1%	2.1%	.322	4.51	20.3%	1.1%	82	-0.29	3.91	270	73
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	73
Luis Ysla L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SW	4.88	19.6%	12.5%	3.4%	.412	4.47	18.3%	4.3%	208	-0.41	3.75	378	73
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	71
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	23.6%	13.4%	1.08	4.77
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35