Sami Manzueta

IF DSL Astros Orange

Age 18 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1638ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	16	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	195	.224/.416/.392	5	7	59	—	.147/.300/.244
2026	17	ROKDSL Astros Or…	197	.241/.372/.395	5	6	40	—	.153/.265/.229
2027PROJMLE	18	MLBHOU	307	.211/.292/.307	4	4	72	0.0
2028PROJ25% MLB	19	MLBHOU	39	.219/.301/.324	1	1	77	-0.0
2029PROJ38% MLB	20	MLBHOU	102	.223/.305/.334	2	1	81	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

ISO67

Chase%55

Speed49

wOBA48

wRC+43

K%39

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJose Carlos Urena (age 18) · Arnaldo Lantigua (age 18) · Héctor Rodríguez (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 104 proj PA

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .290 / .304

PA104

HR1

K%26

BB%9

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	16	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	143	32	9	0	5	42	36	5	7	5	224	416	392	807	168	252	18	22	365	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	197	162	39	8	1	5	25	46	9	6	3	241	372	395	768	154	304	23	13	350	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	156	23	6	0	3	29	45	5	7	5	147	300	244	544	96	170	23	15	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	197	170	26	5	1	2	17	56	9	6	3	153	265	229	495	76	204	28	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	156	23	6	0	3	29	45	5	7	5	147	300	244	544	96	177	23	15	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	143	32	9	0	5	42	36	5	7	5	224	416	392	807	168	252	18	22	365	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	197	170	26	5	1	2	17	56	9	6	3	153	265	229	495	76	212	28	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	197	162	39	8	1	5	25	46	9	6	3	241	372	395	768	154	304	23	13	350	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	159	23	6	0	3	29	45	5	7	5	145	300	239	539	94	170	23	15	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	197	169	26	5	1	2	17	56	9	6	3	154	265	231	496	77	204	28	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	159	23	6	0	3	29	45	5	7	5	145	300	239	539	94	170	23	15	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	197	169	26	5	1	2	17	56	9	6	3	154	265	231	496	77	204	28	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	307	272	58	11	2	4	27	81	5	4	1	211	292	307	599	95	283	26	9	274	72	-10	+0	+0	+0	+7	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	HOU	25%	155	137	30	6	1	2	14	40	3	2	1	216	298	320	618	104	285	26	9	282	77	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2029	20	MLB MLE	HOU	38%	268	237	53	10	2	4	24	69	5	4	2	220	303	331	633	111	287	26	9	288	81	-6	+0	+0	+0	+6	-0.0
2030	21	MLB MLE	HOU	45%	385	341	76	14	2	7	34	97	7	5	2	223	306	340	645	116	288	25	9	293	84	-7	+0	+0	+0	+8	0.1
2031	22	MLB MLE	HOU	49%	466	414	93	17	3	9	41	116	8	7	3	226	308	347	655	121	289	25	9	296	87	-7	+0	+0	+0	+10	0.3
2032	23	MLB MLE	HOU	51%	520	460	104	19	3	10	46	129	9	7	3	228	310	352	662	124	290	25	9	299	89	-7	+0	+0	+0	+11	0.5
2033	24	MLB MLE	HOU	51%	557	494	112	21	3	11	49	138	9	8	3	229	311	354	664	125	291	25	9	300	89	-7	+0	+0	+0	+12	0.5
2034	25	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	576	510	118	22	4	12	51	142	10	8	3	229	311	354	665	125	291	25	9	300	89	-7	+0	+0	+0	+12	0.6
2035	26	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	589	522	120	22	4	12	52	146	10	8	3	228	311	354	664	125	290	25	9	300	89	-8	+0	+0	+0	+13	0.6
2036	27	MLB MLE	HOU	51%	590	522	118	22	3	12	53	147	10	7	4	227	310	351	660	123	290	25	9	299	88	-8	-0	+0	+0	+13	0.4
2037	28	MLB MLE	HOU	50%	582	516	116	22	3	11	52	146	9	6	4	225	308	346	653	121	289	25	9	296	86	-9	-0	-1	+0	+13	0.2
2038	29	MLB MLE	HOU	49%	565	501	112	21	3	11	50	143	9	6	4	223	305	339	644	117	287	25	9	292	84	-11	-0	-1	+0	+12	-0.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	HOU	25%	39	35	7	1	0	1	3	10	1	1	0	219	301	324	624	105	289	26	8	284	77	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	20	MLB CTX	HOU	38%	102	90	21	4	1	2	9	26	2	1	1	223	305	334	640	112	291	25	9	291	81	-2	-0	+0	+0	+2	-0.0
2030	21	MLB CTX	HOU	45%	175	155	35	7	1	3	15	44	3	2	1	226	308	343	652	117	293	25	9	295	84	-3	+0	+0	+0	+4	0.1
2031	22	MLB CTX	HOU	49%	230	204	46	9	1	4	20	57	4	3	1	228	311	350	661	122	294	25	9	299	87	-4	+0	+0	+0	+5	0.2
2032	23	MLB CTX	HOU	51%	267	236	55	11	2	5	24	66	5	4	2	231	312	356	668	125	295	25	9	302	89	-4	+0	+0	+0	+6	0.2
2033	24	MLB CTX	HOU	51%	287	255	59	11	2	6	25	71	5	4	2	231	313	357	670	126	295	25	9	303	89	-4	+0	+0	+0	+6	0.3
2034	25	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	297	264	61	12	2	6	26	73	5	4	2	231	313	358	671	126	295	25	9	303	89	-4	+0	+0	+0	+6	0.3
2035	26	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	304	269	62	12	2	6	27	75	5	4	2	231	313	357	670	126	295	25	9	303	89	-4	+0	+0	+0	+7	0.3
2036	27	MLB CTX	HOU	51%	299	265	61	12	2	6	27	74	5	4	2	230	312	354	666	124	294	25	9	301	88	-4	+0	+0	+0	+6	0.2
2037	28	MLB CTX	HOU	50%	292	259	59	11	2	6	26	73	5	3	2	228	310	349	659	121	293	25	9	298	86	-5	-0	-0	+0	+6	0.1
2038	29	MLB CTX	HOU	49%	276	246	56	11	2	5	24	70	4	3	2	226	307	343	650	118	292	25	9	295	84	-5	-0	-1	+0	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2568	2278	522	101	17	50	226	639	44	33	17	229	311	354	665	125	295	25	9	299	84	-39	-0	-1	+0	+56	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	133	26	4	13	57	162	11	8	4	231	312	357	669	127	296	25	9	299	84	-10	-0	-0	+0	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5749	5072	1121	211	33	107	521	1441	105	82	40	221	307	339	646	118	285	25	9	292	84	-86	+1	-2	+0	+116	3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	127	24	4	12	59	163	12	9	5	222	307	340	648	119	286	25	9	292	84	-10	+0	-0	+0	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Astros Orange · 197 PAwOBA .342 → .227 (−115)K% 23.4% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.35%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	28.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.18%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.59%
HBP% /PA	4.57%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	3.22%
Singles /BIP	21.55%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.035	×1.008	15.29%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.035	×1.008	4.32%
Triples /BIP	0.86%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.035	×1.008	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	4.31%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	2.04%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .342 → .227; ISO .154 → .084; BABIP .304 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 195 PAwOBA .365 → .255 (−110)K% 18.5% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.46%	÷0.976	×1.220	—	—	23.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.03%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.022	14.67%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.84%
Singles /BIP	16.82%	÷0.996	×0.680	×1.023	×1.022	12.02%
Doubles /BIP	8.41%	÷0.997	×0.600	×1.023	×1.022	5.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.600	×1.023	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.67%	÷0.938	×0.470	—	×1.022	2.39%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 99, 2B 99, 3B 92, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .365 → .255; ISO .168 → .103; BABIP .252 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.0	2,671	51	34	227	305	348	+0	+0	3.3	3.1
/162	664	13	9	+0.0	+0.0	0.8	pk7: 3
#3Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
#4Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
#5Desi Relaford'96-'07 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,347 PA	5.0	3,347	40	81	234*	308*	336*	+18	-13	0.2	1.3
/162	664	8	16	+3.7	-2.6	0.0	pk7: 2
#6Carlos Febles'98-'03 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,892 PA	2.8	1,892	24	68	239*	316*	342*	+6	-4	0.5	0.5
/162	664	8	24	+2.2	-1.5	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sami Manzueta (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	210/290/304	94	283	1	1	26%	9%	72	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Carlos Urena 2013 · A	18	41	40→45	40→30	45	196/271/287	91	270	7	5	28%	8%	60	-1.6	189/249/307	118	284	11	4	35%	6%	57	-1.8	195/254/317	121	294	15	0	37%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Arnaldo Lantigua 2024 · A	18	37→43	42→50	47→40	47	184/259/284	100	247	10	8	28%	9%	55	-1.9	194/272/317	123	257	13	6	28%	9%	68	-1.0	193/275/323	131	258	14	4	29%	9%	68	-0.6
✕Héctor Rodríguez 2022 · A	18	43→52	39→50	43→50	47	207/265/299	91	246	6	9	19%	6%	60	-1.6	235/273/360	125	283	10	13	20%	4%	76	-0.4	243/284/388	145	281	17	9	20%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Allen Córdoba 2014 · A	18	43→51	35→45	46→55	49	201/278/260	59	259	2	8	22%	8%	57	-1.8	214/263/275	61	261	3	13	18%	5%	53	-2.1	250/305/328	79	295	5	15	16%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Rainel Rosario 2007 · A	18	41→51	37→50	46→50	42	192/261/262	70	281	4	8	31%	7%	51	-2.3	178/247/262	84	301	6	8	40%	7%	45	-2.7	246/301/378	133	280	16	6	18%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Ronny Ugarte 2023 · A	18	39	41→45	47→30	46	193/268/298	105	252	7	6	26%	8%	61	-1.5	208/273/298	90	262	5	5	21%	7%	63	-1.4	229/293/323	94	294	8	2	24%	8%	73	-0.3
✕Alfredo Marte 2007 · A	18	42→48	38→50	45	44	201/256/278	77	250	5	5	21%	6%	52	-2.2	211/251/294	83	255	5	4	19%	4%	53	-2.1	232/292/369	137	286	14	6	23%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Juan Alonso 2022 · A	18	40→37	36→40	43→50	42	189/253/255	66	268	3	10	29%	7%	45	-2.7	186/285/263	77	351	4	9	43%	10%	61	-1.5	162/274/240	78	346	5	7	47%	10%	51	-1.0
✕Armando Sierra 2022 · A	18	43	36→40	41→40	45	201/266/265	64	278	3	4	27%	7%	53	-2.1	205/268/291	86	269	7	4	25%	7%	59	-1.6	195/258/287	91	252	9	2	25%	7%	52	-0.5
✕Brandol Mezquita 2019 · A	18	37→47	38→30	45→50	44	177/266/252	75	268	6	8	33%	8%	51	-2.2	191/263/259	68	318	5	11	38%	7%	51	-2.2	210/279/271	62	351	4	13	38%	7%	57	-0.8
✕Cal Mitchell 2018 · A	19	41→51	38→50	42→50	43	196/257/277	81	269	5	5	28%	7%	52	-2.2	214/261/321	107	318	10	3	34%	5%	63	-1.3	236/294/376	140	302	15	12	26%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	41→51	41→50	49→55	45	201/256/299	98	254	8	12	24%	7%	56	-1.9	233/299/372	139	304	15	16	27%	8%	90	+0.6	241/309/383	142	307	16	19	26%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Kristian Robinson 2019 · A	18	43→52	42→45	44→55	38	205/265/304	99	318	10	11	37%	7%	61	-1.5	208/267/328	120	323	13	9	37%	6%	68	-1.0	207/295/327	120	329	12	22	37%	10%	76	-0.3
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2019 · A	18	35→42	42→55	44→45	43	179/260/276	97	237	10	7	28%	7%	55	-2.0	214/270/343	129	278	15	7	28%	5%	73	-0.6	211/264/390	178	270	24	4	31%	5%	82	-0.0
●Austin Dean 2013 · A	19	40→50	39→55	44→45	45	192/263/277	85	266	5	5	28%	8%	55	-2.0	227/283/321	94	295	7	6	24%	7%	72	-0.7	262/308/421	159	310	17	4	21%	5%	101	+1.0
✕Edwin Sanchez 2024 · A	19	37	39→40	47→50	53	179/286/263	84	239	7	8	26%	11%	62	-1.4	187/321/279	92	246	7	9	24%	13%	80	-0.2	153/326/245	92	196	8	11	22%	16%	76	-0.1
✕Pablo Guerrero 2024 · A	18	38	38→45	39→40	48	183/271/262	79	254	6	5	28%	9%	55	-1.9	195/259/292	97	297	9	3	35%	7%	57	-1.8	194/262/297	103	292	11	1	35%	7%	57	-0.9
✕Luis Del Rosario 2009 · A	19	44	37→40	39→55	44	207/269/277	69	291	4	8	29%	8%	56	-1.9	203/258/274	71	317	4	12	35%	7%	51	-2.2	198/242/271	73	311	6	22	36%	5%	40	-1.2
✕Ramón Flores 2010 · A	18	39→49	36→45	46→50	47	186/259/254	68	248	3	8	25%	8%	48	-2.5	227/285/316	89	294	6	9	23%	7%	71	-0.8	255/328/354	99	304	9	8	18%	9%	94	+0.6
✕Jhon Torres 2018 · A	18	39→41	39→45	44→45	48	189/268/274	85	241	6	6	23%	8%	56	-1.9	206/270/307	101	298	10	6	32%	7%	64	-1.3	201/255/308	107	285	11	3	32%	5%	55	-0.8

Sami Manzueta

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps