Sami Manzueta — OGILVIE

Sami ManzuetaIF DSL Astros Blue

Age 17 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 71 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .294 / .300

PA71

HR1

K%25

BB%8

BABIP271

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE64

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$9M	+$9M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.9	$9M	+$8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.0	$9M	+$8M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$8M	+$7M
2036	Arb-2	$7M	+2.0	$7M	+$5M
2037	Arb-3	$9M	+1.9	$7M	+$4M
Totals		$23M		$49M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	16	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	161	28	7	0	5	24	55	5	7	5	174	300	311	611	137	217	28	12	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	143	32	9	0	5	42	36	5	7	5	224	416	392	807	168	252	18	22	365	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	17	ROK	HOU	—	107	91	20	4	0	3	9	27	6	4	2	220	330	363	693	143	274	25	8	299	87	-2	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.1
YTD	17	ROK	HOU	—	107	85	24	5	0	4	15	19	6	4	2	282	425	482	907	200	317	18	14	404	167	+8	+0	+0	+0	+3	1.1
ROS	17	ROK	HOU	0%	71	63	13	3	0	1	6	18	2	1	1	205	294	300	594	95	284	25	8	296	85	-1	-0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
ROS	17	MLB	HOU	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		286	—	—	282	74	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	17	ROK	HOU	—	107	92	20	4	0	3	9	27	6	4	2	217	330	359	689	141	270	25	8	299	87	-2	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.1
TOT	17	ROK	HOU	—	178	154	33	7	0	4	15	45	8	5	3	214	316	337	653	123	273	25	8	298	86	-3	-0	+0	+0	+5	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	18	MLB	HOU	25%	251	222	48	9	1	5	22	63	5	4	1	216	301	333	635	117	284	25	9	297	85	-4	+0	+0	+0	+7	0.3
2028	19	MLB	HOU	38%	381	336	77	14	2	9	34	94	8	5	2	229	315	363	678	134	287	25	9	304	91	-4	+0	+0	+0	+11	0.7
2029	20	MLB	HOU	45%	482	426	98	18	2	12	43	118	10	7	2	230	315	366	681	136	289	24	9	309	94	-3	+1	+0	+0	+14	1.1
2030	21	MLB	HOU	49%	557	490	114	21	3	14	50	134	12	7	3	233	319	373	692	141	290	24	9	312	97	-2	+0	+0	+0	+16	1.4
2031	22	MLB	HOU	51%	595	523	123	23	3	15	54	143	13	8	3	235	322	377	699	141	290	24	9	314	99	-1	+0	+0	+0	+17	1.7
2032	23	MLB	HOU	52%	613	539	127	24	3	16	56	146	13	8	3	236	322	380	703	145	291	24	9	316	100	+0	+0	+0	+0	+17	1.8
2033	24	MLB	HOU	52%	626	551	130	24	3	17	57	149	13	8	3	236	322	383	705	147	292	24	9	318	101	+1	+0	+0	+0	+18	1.9
2034	25	MLB	HOU	52%	633	556	132	25	3	17	58	150	14	8	3	237	325	385	710	147	292	24	9	318	102	+1	+0	+0	+0	+18	2.0
2035	26	MLB	HOU	52%	639	561	133	25	3	17	59	151	14	9	3	237	325	383	708	146	292	24	9	318	102	+1	+1	+0	+0	+18	2.0
2036	27	MLB	HOU	51%	637	559	133	25	3	17	59	151	14	8	3	238	326	385	711	147	291	24	9	318	102	+1	+0	+0	+0	+18	2.0
2037	28	MLB	HOU	50%	631	553	130	24	3	17	59	151	14	8	3	235	324	382	706	146	291	24	9	317	101	+1	+0	-1	+0	+18	1.9
2038	29	MLB	HOU	49%	620	543	128	24	3	16	59	149	13	8	3	236	325	379	705	144	290	24	10	316	100	-0	+0	-1	+0	+18	1.7
2039	30	MLB	HOU	48%	609	533	124	23	2	16	58	148	13	7	3	233	323	373	696	141	289	24	10	313	97	-2	+0	-2	+0	+17	1.4
2040	31	MLB	HOU	47%	595	521	119	22	2	15	56	147	13	7	2	228	319	365	683	136	286	25	9	309	94	-4	+1	-3	+0	+17	1.1
2041	32	MLB	HOU	47%	576	505	114	21	2	14	54	144	12	6	2	226	315	358	674	133	283	25	9	303	90	-6	+0	-4	+0	+16	0.7
2042	33	MLB	HOU	47%	547	480	105	19	2	12	51	140	11	6	2	219	308	342	650	123	279	26	9	296	85	-9	+0	-4	+0	+15	0.2
2043	34	MLB	HOU	42%	499	440	94	16	2	11	46	131	10	5	2	214	302	334	637	120	273	26	9	288	78	-12	+0	-5	+0	+14	-0.3
2027	18	MLB	HOU	25%	62	56	11	2	0	1	5	16	1	1	0	196	274	286	560	89	286	26	8	286	77	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.0
2028	19	MLB	HOU	38%	146	129	30	6	1	3	13	36	3	2	1	233	317	364	682	132	289	25	9	292	82	-3	+0	+0	+0	+4	0.1
2029	20	MLB	HOU	45%	219	192	45	9	1	5	20	53	5	3	1	234	323	370	692	135	291	24	9	296	85	-4	+0	+0	+0	+6	0.3
2030	21	MLB	HOU	49%	274	241	57	11	1	7	25	66	6	4	1	237	324	378	701	141	292	24	9	300	87	-4	+0	+0	+0	+8	0.4
2031	22	MLB	HOU	51%	305	267	63	12	1	8	28	73	7	4	1	236	325	378	703	142	293	24	9	302	89	-4	+0	+0	+0	+9	0.5
2032	23	MLB	HOU	52%	321	282	68	13	2	9	29	76	7	4	1	241	327	397	724	156	294	24	9	304	91	-3	+0	+0	+0	+9	0.6
2033	24	MLB	HOU	52%	326	286	69	13	2	9	30	77	7	4	1	241	328	395	723	154	295	24	9	305	92	-3	+0	+0	+0	+9	0.7
2034	25	MLB	HOU	52%	329	289	70	13	2	9	30	78	7	4	1	242	328	394	723	152	295	24	9	306	92	-3	+0	+0	+0	+9	0.7
2035	26	MLB	HOU	52%	331	291	70	13	2	9	30	78	7	4	2	241	326	392	718	151	294	24	9	306	92	-3	+0	+0	+0	+9	0.7
2036	27	MLB	HOU	51%	324	284	68	13	1	9	30	77	7	4	1	239	327	387	714	148	294	24	9	306	92	-3	+0	+0	+0	+9	0.7
2037	28	MLB	HOU	50%	317	277	67	13	1	9	30	76	7	4	1	242	331	394	725	152	294	24	9	305	92	-3	+0	-0	+0	+9	0.6
2038	29	MLB	HOU	49%	303	264	63	12	1	8	29	73	7	4	1	239	330	383	713	144	293	24	10	303	90	-3	+0	-1	+0	+9	0.5
2039	30	MLB	HOU	48%	292	256	60	11	1	8	28	71	6	4	1	234	324	379	703	145	292	24	10	300	88	-4	+0	-1	+0	+8	0.4
2040	31	MLB	HOU	47%	282	247	57	11	1	7	27	70	6	3	1	231	321	368	690	138	289	25	10	296	85	-5	+0	-1	+0	+8	0.2
2041	32	MLB	HOU	47%	270	237	54	10	1	7	25	68	6	3	1	228	317	367	684	139	286	25	9	291	81	-6	+0	-2	+0	+8	0.0
2042	33	MLB	HOU	47%	255	224	50	9	1	6	24	65	5	3	1	223	312	353	665	129	281	25	9	284	75	-7	+0	-2	+0	+7	-0.2
2043	34	MLB	HOU	42%	211	185	40	7	1	5	20	55	4	2	1	216	306	346	652	130	275	26	9	275	69	-7	+0	-2	+0	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4567	4008	942	178	20	119	423	1108	98	57	17	235	323	378	702	143	293	24	9	299	87	-67	+5	-9	+0	+129	6.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	134	25	3	17	60	158	14	8	2	235	322	379	701	144	294	24	9	299	87	-9	+1	-1	+0	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	9757	8562	1970	367	42	246	905	2382	209	127	49	230	319	369	688	139	288	24	9	310	95	-51	+6	-20	+0	+276	21.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	131	24	3	16	60	159	14	8	3	230	318	367	684	137	289	24	9	310	95	-3	+0	-1	+0	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	16	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	143	32	9	0	5	42	36	5	7	5	224	416	392	807	168	252	18	22	365	138	+8	-1	—	—	+6	1.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#2Alex Gonzalezlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,150 PA	6	3,150	86	34	246	304	402	-0	+23	9.7	9.7
	/162	664	18	7	246	304	402	-0.0	+4.9	2.1	pk7: 10
#3Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	9	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
	/162	664	13	8	246	327	370	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,734	119	60	232	317	372	+0	+0	11.1	9.0
	/162	664	17	8	232	317	372	+0.0	+0.0	1.6	pk7: 7
#4Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sami Manzueta (OGILVIE)	17	50	40	40	64	214/316/337	123	273	4	5	25%	8%	86	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	48→42	42→50	44→50	45	227/318/334	107	303	8	7	26%	7%	88	+0.9	214/310/343	129	287	12	8	28%	8%	88	+0.9	219/307/369	150	281	18	13	27%	8%	90	+0.9
✕Edwin Sanchez 2023 · A	18	41	44→45	43→50	46	200/288/314	114	285	12	6	32%	9%	70	-0.3	198/309/305	107	277	9	9	29%	11%	78	+0.2	174/315/284	109	237	10	11	27%	13%	75	+0.0
●Elvis Andrus 2006 · A	17	47→57	39→50	47→60	46	226/288/308	82	287	6	9	23%	7%	66	-0.6	232/281/307	75	309	4	22	25%	6%	63	-0.9	277/330/410	133	307	11	23	13%	7%	107	+2.4
✕Alexander Campos 2018 · A	18	46	37→40	39→45	51	214/291/283	68	279	4	8	23%	9%	62	-0.9	195/266/265	70	306	4	9	34%	8%	46	-2.0	215/312/294	79	295	8	4	27%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Armando Sierra 2023 · A	19	46	41→45	43→40	47	225/288/323	98	278	9	4	22%	7%	71	-0.3	214/269/315	101	304	9	4	31%	6%	60	-1.0	191/241/289	98	292	10	0	37%	6%	39	-0.5
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	46→51	41→45	48→45	46	220/292/328	108	287	7	4	25%	7%	74	-0.1	209/280/297	88	296	5	4	29%	7%	61	-1.0	232/306/347	116	310	11	3	27%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Jesus Morelli 2009 · A	19	49	42→45	48→50	49	234/311/346	112	300	9	12	24%	8%	87	+0.8	220/282/289	69	304	4	10	27%	6%	59	-1.1	219/279/260	41	287	0	14	22%	6%	47	-0.5
✕Francisco Herrera 2012 · A	18	46	40→45	47→30	49	220/280/315	95	261	7	8	19%	7%	66	-0.6	225/284/324	99	267	9	5	19%	6%	69	-0.4	225/284/320	95	260	10	3	17%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Francisco Ventura 2017 · A	18	48	40	41→40	54	228/297/319	92	260	7	6	15%	9%	73	-0.1	221/275/291	70	307	4	5	27%	7%	56	-1.3	222/262/247	25	337	0	0	32%	5%	34	-0.7
●Esteury Ruiz 2017 · A	18	46→56	43→50	47→70	43	225/273/343	119	277	9	12	22%	5%	69	-0.4	209/256/323	114	313	8	25	34%	5%	56	-1.3	268/342/410	142	331	14	74	22%	7%	114	+1.8
✕Ryan Vilade 2018 · A	19	47→51	44→50	45→50	48	226/304/342	117	319	12	8	31%	10%	83	+0.6	221/283/308	87	294	6	12	25%	7%	64	-0.8	227/289/416	189	269	24	16	25%	7%	94	+0.8
✕Luis Alvarez 2009 · A	19	47	43→45	44→45	48	231/306/343	112	272	11	5	19%	7%	85	+0.7	224/289/325	101	280	9	6	22%	6%	72	-0.2	209/262/317	108	250	12	1	21%	4%	55	-0.3
✕Edmundo Sosa 2014 · A	18	48→49	40→55	47→50	50	227/285/322	95	254	7	9	14%	7%	69	-0.4	218/265/304	86	270	6	8	21%	5%	56	-1.3	252/297/422	170	304	19	9	23%	4%	99	+0.8
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	43→46	38→45	47→55	49	203/297/279	76	256	6	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	211/299/308	97	254	9	16	20%	9%	72	-0.2	216/299/322	106	259	12	19	21%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Jeral Perez 2023 · A	18	42→41	47→50	49→45	47	214/282/352	138	263	14	7	24%	8%	76	+0.1	208/286/358	150	281	18	7	31%	9%	80	+0.4	201/277/358	157	269	20	6	32%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Héctor Rodríguez 2022 · A	18	46→50	43→50	43→50	44	224/277/336	112	272	10	9	22%	6%	69	-0.4	228/267/352	124	277	10	13	21%	4%	69	-0.4	238/278/383	145	274	17	10	20%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Alexander Mojica 2021 · A	18	48	46→45	48→40	50	238/313/372	135	299	13	5	24%	9%	95	+1.4	181/258/278	97	292	9	3	38%	8%	48	-1.9	158/243/255	97	257	10	1	40%	9%	34	-1.2
✕Manuel Joseph 2013 · A	19	46	41→45	44→50	45	221/274/319	97	271	8	8	21%	6%	63	-0.8	244/300/352	108	288	9	15	18%	6%	83	+0.6	263/321/381	118	302	10	21	15%	5%	101	+0.8
✕Ronny Ugarte 2023 · A	18	41	43→50	47→40	43	202/274/320	118	277	9	6	29%	7%	65	-0.7	227/287/334	107	295	8	5	24%	7%	73	-0.1	248/308/368	120	321	11	2	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A	19	41	42→45	47→50	43	203/277/306	103	268	9	7	27%	6%	63	-0.9	224/283/326	102	290	5	11	24%	5%	69	-0.4	226/280/337	111	291	6	11	23%	4%	69	-0.2