Juan Alonso — OGILVIE

Juan AlonsoOF Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 180 lbs A HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.178 / .268 / .293

PA196

HR4

K%40

BB%9

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20↗25

PWR

35↗40

SPD

45↗50

EYE

54↗59

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.0peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$-14M	-$17M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	133	122	20	4	0	1	8	44	3	6	6	.164	.233	.221	.454	.057	.247	33	6	.205	15	-13	-1	+0	-1	+4	-1.1
2022	18	ROK	2 teams	214	174	33	8	1	2	29	90	9	13	3	.190	.335	.282	.617	.092	.369	42	14	.284	76	-6	+1	+0	-1	+6	0.0
2023	19	A	2 teams	172	149	22	4	2	0	15	89	7	2	4	.148	.257	.201	.459	.054	.361	52	9	.211	19	-16	-1	+0	-1	+5	-1.3
2024	20	A	2 teams	405	345	54	11	3	4	39	191	15	4	4	.157	.271	.241	.511	.084	.321	47	10	.237	40	-28	-1	+0	-2	+11	-2.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	LAA	196	172	31	6	1	4	18	79	4	3	1	.180	.273	.297	.570	.116	.292	40	9	.260	57	-10	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 11%	LAA	207	182	34	6	1	5	19	78	4	4	1	.187	.278	.313	.591	.126	.293	38	9	.272	66	-8	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.3
2028	24	MLB 26%	LAA	334	293	57	11	2	8	32	122	6	6	2	.195	.287	.328	.615	.133	.293	37	10	.280	72	-10	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.3
2029	25	MLB 43%	LAA	417	367	73	14	2	11	40	148	7	8	2	.199	.290	.338	.628	.139	.294	35	10	.285	77	-11	+1	+0	-3	+12	-0.1
2030	26	MLB 58%	LAA	469	412	82	15	2	13	46	165	8	9	3	.199	.292	.340	.632	.141	.295	35	10	.288	79	-11	+1	+0	-3	+13	-0.0
2031	27	MLB 76%	LAA	498	437	86	16	2	13	49	176	9	9	3	.197	.291	.332	.623	.135	.295	35	10	.288	79	-12	+1	+0	-3	+14	-0.0
2032	28	MLB 84%	LAA	512	447	89	17	2	14	51	182	9	9	2	.199	.294	.340	.634	.141	.294	36	10	.287	78	-13	+1	-1	-3	+15	-0.1
2033	29	MLB 90%	LAA	515	449	88	17	2	13	52	184	9	8	2	.196	.292	.330	.622	.134	.293	36	10	.285	76	-14	+1	-1	-3	+15	-0.3
2034	30	MLB	LAA	512	446	87	16	2	13	52	185	9	8	2	.195	.292	.327	.619	.132	.292	36	10	.282	74	-15	+1	-2	-3	+15	-0.5
2035	31	MLB	LAA	503	438	84	16	2	12	51	184	9	7	1	.192	.289	.320	.609	.128	.290	37	10	.278	71	-17	+1	-3	-3	+14	-0.7
2036	32	MLB	LAA	488	428	81	15	2	12	49	181	8	6	1	.189	.285	.318	.602	.129	.288	37	10	.273	67	-18	+1	-4	-3	+14	-1.0
2037	33	MLB	LAA	460	403	74	14	2	10	46	174	8	5	0	.184	.280	.303	.583	.119	.286	38	10	.268	63	-19	+1	-4	-3	+13	-1.2
2038	34	MLB	LAA	416	365	66	12	2	9	41	161	7	5	0	.181	.276	.299	.575	.118	.284	39	10	.262	58	-20	+1	-5	-2	+12	-1.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6451	5629	1061	202	30	144	637	2433	131	112	37	.188	.286	.312	.598	.123	.297	38	10	.273	67	-239	+8	-20	-39	+183	-11.0
/ 162G	—			650	567	107	20	3	15	64	245	13	11	4	.189	.286	.314	.600	.125	.296	38	10	.273	67	-24	+1	-2	-4	+18	-1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	133	117	28	6	0	1	13	32	3	6	6	.239	.331	.316	.647	.077	.321	24	10	.301	89	-2	-1	—	—	+4	0.1
2022	18	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	40	34	8	3	0	1	4	15	2	1	1	.235	.350	.412	.762	.176	.389	38	10	.345	122	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	18	ROK	ACL Dodgers	174	125	36	7	1	2	40	47	7	12	2	.288	.483	.408	.891	.120	.436	27	23	.410	172	+14	+2	—	—	+5	2.1
2023	19	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	155	129	26	4	2	0	20	60	5	2	3	.202	.331	.264	.595	.062	.371	39	13	.284	76	-4	-1	—	—	+4	-0.1
2023	19	ROK	ACL Dodgers	17	15	5	2	1	0	0	5	2	0	1	.333	.412	.600	1.012	.267	.500	29	0	.439	194	+2	-0	—	—	+0	0.2
2024	20	A+	Great Lakes Loons	58	52	12	2	0	0	4	26	2	1	0	.231	.310	.269	.580	.038	.462	45	7	.274	68	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2024	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	347	280	64	14	4	6	48	114	13	3	4	.229	.367	.371	.738	.143	.349	33	14	.335	114	+6	-1	—	—	+10	1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Alonso (OGILVIE)	22	20→25	35→40	45→50	59	.178/.268/.293	.115	.292	4	3	40%	9%	57	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	43→50	51→45	35	.183/.259/.287	.104	.311	11	11	42%	6%	51	-1.7	.198/.263/.310	.112	.287	13	7	34%	6%	58	-1.2	.185/.242/.280	.095	.261	13	5	33%	5%	38	-1.0
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2017 · A	22	35	46→50	45→40	40	.185/.251/.313	.128	.265	15	5	35%	7%	53	-1.5	.209/.268/.329	.120	.279	13	4	28%	7%	65	-0.7	.211/.271/.321	.110	.275	12	2	27%	7%	61	-0.4
✕Jamari Baylor 2023 · A	22	40	42→45	50→55	41	.172/.280/.276	.105	.337	10	18	46%	10%	58	-1.2	.187/.287/.297	.110	.339	11	16	43%	10%	66	-0.6	.170/.275/.273	.103	.306	12	18	43%	10%	53	-0.5
✕Jacob Heyward 2018 · A	22	40	44→50	45→50	40	.197/.265/.313	.116	.295	12	8	36%	7%	59	-1.1	.197/.279/.317	.120	.298	13	10	35%	9%	67	-0.5	.181/.276/.317	.136	.268	16	9	36%	10%	63	-0.5
✕Yusuf Carter 2007 · A	22	37→34	46→50	45→50	35	.194/.240/.317	.122	.287	15	6	37%	5%	49	-1.8	.202/.239/.339	.137	.300	16	10	37%	5%	54	-1.4	.219/.264/.370	.151	.296	19	10	32%	5%	70	-0.2
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2010 · A	21	33	41→45	41→50	41	.168/.252/.259	.091	.262	9	8	37%	8%	41	-2.3	.197/.275/.307	.110	.307	11	5	36%	9%	63	-0.9	.204/.303/.338	.134	.292	14	2	32%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Joe DeCarlo 2016 · A	22	38	43→50	43→30	44	.184/.274/.291	.106	.280	10	3	35%	9%	59	-1.1	.196/.279/.333	.137	.278	16	2	33%	8%	71	-0.3	.192/.273/.343	.151	.263	18	1	33%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Carlos Dominguez 2022 · A	22	39→27	47→45	49→50	32	.191/.265/.326	.135	.316	15	11	42%	5%	64	-0.8	.165/.239/.283	.118	.350	15	12	53%	6%	42	-2.3	.131/.212/.238	.107	.287	15	14	56%	6%	16	-2.1
✕Payton Henry 2019 · A	22	41→31	42→45	41→30	38	.192/.261/.298	.106	.318	10	3	40%	7%	54	-1.4	.192/.255/.296	.104	.317	11	3	41%	5%	50	-1.7	.246/.293/.382	.135	.322	19	1	29%	4%	83	+0.2
✕Carson Blair 2012 · A	22	37	42→50	46→30	35	.178/.236/.279	.101	.318	10	4	45%	7%	38	-2.6	.189/.256/.311	.122	.305	11	5	39%	8%	55	-1.4	.192/.271/.336	.144	.315	14	1	40%	9%	65	-0.3
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	39	44→45	51→55	40	.195/.268/.308	.113	.290	12	13	35%	7%	59	-1.1	.200/.270/.300	.100	.307	9	12	35%	8%	58	-1.2	.166/.253/.240	.073	.276	4	11	37%	10%	33	-0.6
✕Taylor Brennan 2014 · A	22	37→42	45	48→45	43	.177/.265/.302	.125	.304	13	7	43%	10%	57	-1.2	.186/.269/.291	.105	.299	10	7	37%	10%	56	-1.3	.176/.263/.268	.092	.285	8	7	38%	10%	46	-1.3
✕Kevin Padlo 2018 · A	22	36→40	45→55	44→50	48	.184/.270/.312	.128	.257	13	8	32%	10%	62	-0.9	.195/.278/.343	.148	.287	15	8	35%	9%	73	-0.1	.191/.263/.361	.170	.260	21	12	35%	8%	69	-0.3
✕Kadon Morton 2023 · A	22	39→35	42→45	51→55	37	.179/.254/.283	.104	.332	10	12	46%	8%	47	-1.9	.170/.234/.260	.090	.333	9	15	48%	7%	33	-2.9	.112/.173/.171	.059	.236	6	22	52%	6%	-19	-3.1
✕Yeicok Calderon 2014 · A	22	35	46→45	45	33	.180/.227/.303	.123	.290	14	5	42%	6%	40	-2.4	.206/.250/.323	.117	.324	12	6	38%	5%	54	-1.4	.210/.245/.331	.121	.324	12	5	38%	4%	52	-0.6
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	40	.188/.259/.305	.117	.281	12	9	36%	7%	55	-1.4	.194/.278/.291	.097	.346	7	8	42%	9%	59	-1.1	.146/.273/.221	.075	.359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
✕Ignacio Valdez 2017 · A	22	32	45	45→50	37	.169/.233/.291	.121	.258	13	5	38%	6%	40	-2.4	.177/.238/.289	.112	.315	12	4	45%	7%	42	-2.3	.137/.165/.201	.064	.247	4	0	45%	3%	-17	-1.2
✕Vicente Lupo 2016 · A	22	39	46→45	47→45	33	.177/.247/.304	.127	.344	14	8	49%	7%	50	-1.8	.188/.253/.296	.108	.352	10	6	46%	7%	50	-1.8	.166/.236/.259	.093	.313	7	3	46%	7%	30	-1.6
✕Jase Bowen 2023 · A	22	39→40	44→45	54→55	35	.194/.253/.305	.111	.299	13	14	38%	6%	52	-1.6	.200/.252/.326	.126	.285	15	18	34%	5%	57	-1.2	.198/.249/.325	.127	.276	15	22	33%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Chuckie Jones 2014 · A	22	37→40	43→45	44→50	35	.183/.239/.290	.106	.297	11	8	40%	6%	42	-2.3	.202/.255/.322	.120	.297	14	9	35%	6%	57	-1.2	.199/.253/.321	.122	.279	15	10	33%	6%	53	-0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)