Pablo Guerrero
OF Hickory Crawdads| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | A/ROK2 orgs | 317 | .276/.341/.442 | 8 | 2 | 48 | — | .196/.248/.310 |
| 2025 | 19 | ATEX | 396 | .208/.305/.318 | 7 | 0 | 32 | — | .164/.236/.239 |
| 2026 | 20 | A/ROKTEX | 178 | .342/.461/.568 | 7 | 2 | 127 | — | .271/.365/.426 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBTEX | 336 | .199/.274/.309 | 6 | 3 | 65 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBTEX | 56 | .205/.281/.327 | 1 | 1 | 71 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 155 | 125 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 224 | 366 | 360 | 726 | 136 | 270 | 22 | 15 | 333 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 107 | 97 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 279 | 289 | 568 | 62 | 284 | 23 | 6 | 254 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 210 | 186 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 63 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 301 | 372 | 522 | 893 | 220 | 412 | 30 | 9 | 386 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 396 | 346 | 72 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 45 | 99 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 305 | 318 | 622 | 110 | 269 | 25 | 11 | 286 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 156 | 127 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 331 | 455 | 567 | 1.022 | 236 | 412 | 22 | 17 | 449 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 22 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 421 | 500 | 579 | 1.079 | 158 | 444 | 5 | 9 | 478 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 155 | 132 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 129 | 248 | 197 | 445 | 68 | 169 | 28 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 107 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 231 | 242 | 473 | 51 | 263 | 31 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 210 | 192 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 91 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 198 | 256 | 344 | 600 | 146 | 317 | 43 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 396 | 360 | 59 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 137 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 236 | 239 | 475 | 75 | 242 | 35 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 156 | 135 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 48 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 365 | 430 | 795 | 163 | 379 | 31 | 12 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 22 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 364 | 400 | 764 | 100 | 346 | 5 | 5 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 155 | 132 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 129 | 248 | 197 | 445 | 68 | 169 | 28 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 155 | 125 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 224 | 366 | 360 | 726 | 136 | 270 | 22 | 15 | 333 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 292 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 125 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 244 | 298 | 542 | 103 | 310 | 39 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 317 | 283 | 78 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 88 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 276 | 341 | 442 | 783 | 166 | 363 | 28 | 8 | 341 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 396 | 360 | 59 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 137 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 236 | 239 | 475 | 75 | 245 | 35 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 396 | 346 | 72 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 45 | 99 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 305 | 318 | 622 | 110 | 269 | 25 | 11 | 286 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 178 | 154 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 49 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 279 | 376 | 442 | 818 | 162 | 380 | 28 | 11 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 178 | 146 | 50 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 342 | 461 | 568 | 1.029 | 226 | 417 | 20 | 16 | 452 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 155 | 133 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 128 | 248 | 195 | 444 | 68 | 169 | 28 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 295 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 125 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 193 | 244 | 295 | 539 | 102 | 299 | 39 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 396 | 359 | 59 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 137 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 236 | 240 | 476 | 75 | 242 | 35 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 178 | 152 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 49 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 283 | 376 | 447 | 824 | 164 | 375 | 28 | 11 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 295 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 125 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 193 | 244 | 295 | 539 | 102 | 299 | 39 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 396 | 359 | 59 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 137 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 236 | 240 | 476 | 75 | 242 | 35 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 178 | 152 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 49 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 283 | 376 | 447 | 824 | 164 | 375 | 28 | 11 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | TEX | 0% | 336 | 301 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 98 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 274 | 309 | 582 | 110 | 268 | 29 | 8 | 265 | 65 | -14 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | TEX | 34% | 162 | 145 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 280 | 323 | 602 | 118 | 270 | 28 | 9 | 273 | 71 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | TEX | 34% | 56 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 281 | 327 | 608 | 122 | 269 | 29 | 9 | 275 | 71 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 56 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 286 | 300 | 586 | 100 | 273 | 29 | 9 | 275 | 56 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 116 | 23 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 186 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 200 | 286 | 302 | 588 | 102 | 272 | 29 | 9 | 275 | 56 | -22 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1328 | 1191 | 225 | 46 | 2 | 22 | 106 | 435 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 189 | 266 | 286 | 552 | 97 | 272 | 33 | 8 | 251 | 56 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 111 | 23 | 1 | 11 | 52 | 213 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 190 | 267 | 290 | 557 | 99 | 274 | 33 | 8 | 251 | 56 | -24 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AHickory Crawdads · 156 PAwOBA .437 → .356 (−81)K% 22.4% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.44% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 11.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×1.030 | 27.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.030 | 8.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 6.27% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .437 → .356; ISO .236 → .188; BABIP .412 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Rangers · 22 PAwOBA .465 → .357 (−109)K% 4.5% → 6.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.55% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 6.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 22.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 11.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .465 → .357; ISO .158 → .117; BABIP .444 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AHickory Crawdads · 396 PAwOBA .281 → .216 (−65)K% 25.0% → 34.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.981 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.36% | ÷1.051 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 7.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.43% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.045 | 18.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.88% | ÷1.123 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.045 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.83% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.29% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 108, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .281 → .216; ISO .110 → .079; BABIP .269 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Rangers · 210 PAwOBA .381 → .251 (−130)K% 30.0% → 43.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.993 | ×1.440 | — | — | 43.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 5.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.02% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×0.997 | ×1.022 | 21.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.38% | ÷1.011 | ×0.720 | ×0.997 | ×1.022 | 8.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.997 | ×1.022 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.69% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 4.37% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .381 → .251; ISO .220 → .138; BABIP .412 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 107 PAwOBA .250 → .215 (−35)K% 23.4% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.36% | ÷1.022 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.67% | ÷0.983 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 3.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 23.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 3.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 1.16% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .250 → .215; ISO .062 → .050; BABIP .284 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Rangers Blue · 155 PAwOBA .330 → .210 (−120)K% 21.9% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.94% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.84% | ÷1.024 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 10.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.88% | ÷1.069 | ×0.680 | ×0.980 | ×1.022 | 13.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.49% | ÷0.901 | ×0.600 | ×0.980 | ×1.022 | 3.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.600 | ×0.980 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.40% | ÷1.180 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.79% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 114, 2B 80, 3B 107, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .330 → .210; ISO .136 → .067; BABIP .270 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).