Pablo Guerrero — OGILVIE

Pablo GuerreroOF Hickory Crawdads

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 200 lbs A HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION178 act + 24 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .250 / .227

PA24

HR0

K%29

BB%8

BABIP297

ISO45

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	125	28	5	0	4	23	34	5	1	4	224	366	360	726	136	270	22	15	333	112	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.4
2024	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	107	97	22	3	0	1	6	25	1	1	0	227	279	289	568	62	284	23	6	254	58	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	210	186	56	14	3	7	18	63	3	1	1	301	372	522	893	220	412	30	9	386	148	+12	-0	—	—	+5	1.7
2025	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	346	72	17	0	7	45	99	3	0	0	208	305	318	622	110	269	25	11	286	80	-9	+0	—	—	+9	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	134	21	4	0	3	14	51	5	1	4	157	261	254	515	97	201	33	9	222	36	-12	-1	—	—	+3	-1.0
2024	18	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	107	100	19	2	0	1	3	35	1	1	0	190	221	240	461	50	255	33	3	205	25	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	210	192	36	8	2	4	12	91	3	1	1	188	246	312	559	125	310	43	6	246	53	-12	-0	—	—	+5	-0.8
2025	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	364	57	11	0	5	27	143	3	0	0	157	221	228	449	71	236	36	7	206	26	-35	+0	—	—	+9	-2.7
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	134	21	4	0	3	14	51	5	1	4	157	261	254	515	97	220	33	9	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	125	28	5	0	4	23	34	5	1	4	224	366	360	726	136	270	22	15	333	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	317	292	56	11	2	5	15	126	4	2	1	192	241	295	536	103	305	40	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	317	283	78	17	3	8	24	88	4	2	1	276	341	442	783	166	363	28	8	341	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	364	57	11	0	5	27	143	3	0	0	157	221	228	449	71	239	36	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	346	72	17	0	7	45	99	3	0	0	208	305	318	622	110	269	25	11	286	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	135	21	4	0	3	14	51	5	1	4	156	261	252	513	96	201	33	9	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	317	295	56	11	2	5	15	126	4	2	1	190	241	292	533	102	291	40	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	363	57	11	0	5	27	143	3	0	0	157	221	229	449	72	236	36	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	135	21	4	0	3	14	51	5	1	4	156	261	252	513	96	201	33	9	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	317	295	56	11	2	5	15	126	4	2	1	190	241	292	533	102	291	40	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	363	57	11	0	5	27	143	3	0	0	157	221	229	449	72	236	36	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	TEX	—	178	156	43	9	0	6	18	51	4	2	0	276	365	449	814	173	374	29	10	352	124	+5	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	TEX	—	22	19	8	3	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	421	500	579	1.079	158	444	5	9	478	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A RAW	TEX	—	156	127	42	9	0	7	26	35	3	2	0	331	455	567	1.022	236	412	22	17	449	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	TEX	0%	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	182	250	227	477	45	295	29	8	277	74	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	TEX	—	202	178	47	10	0	6	20	58	4	2	0	264	351	421	773	157	360	29	10	343	118	+4	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	454	410	89	18	1	10	35	138	6	4	1	217	288	339	627	122	295	30	8	283	77	-12	+0	+0	-3	+10	-0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	TEX	48%	490	442	98	20	1	12	39	143	6	5	1	222	294	353	647	131	296	29	8	292	83	-10	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	TEX	54%	529	474	107	21	1	14	43	151	7	5	2	226	300	363	662	137	296	29	8	297	87	-8	+0	+0	-3	+11	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	571	512	117	23	1	16	47	160	7	6	2	229	302	371	673	143	297	28	8	301	90	-7	+0	+0	-3	+12	0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	612	548	126	25	2	17	51	171	8	7	2	230	305	376	681	146	297	28	8	303	91	-6	+1	+0	-4	+13	0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	619	554	128	25	2	18	52	173	8	7	2	231	306	381	687	150	297	28	8	304	92	-6	+1	+0	-4	+13	0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	618	553	126	25	1	18	52	173	8	8	2	228	303	374	678	146	297	28	8	304	92	-6	+1	+0	-4	+13	0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	614	549	125	25	1	17	52	173	8	7	2	228	304	370	674	142	296	28	8	303	91	-6	+1	-1	-4	+13	0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	TEX	58%	604	539	122	24	1	17	52	171	8	7	2	226	304	369	673	143	295	28	9	301	90	-7	+1	-1	-4	+13	0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	TEX	60%	593	529	118	23	1	16	51	170	8	7	2	223	301	361	662	138	294	29	9	298	88	-8	+1	-2	-4	+13	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	156	141	31	6	0	4	12	47	2	1	0	220	290	348	638	128	298	30	8	278	77	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TEX	48%	237	213	49	10	1	6	19	69	3	2	1	230	302	371	673	141	298	29	8	287	83	-5	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	TEX	54%	287	258	59	12	1	8	23	82	4	3	1	229	302	376	678	147	299	29	8	293	87	-4	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	316	283	66	13	1	9	26	89	4	4	1	233	307	382	688	148	299	28	8	297	90	-4	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	343	308	71	14	1	10	28	96	4	4	1	231	303	380	683	149	300	28	8	299	91	-4	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	348	311	73	14	1	11	29	97	5	4	1	235	310	392	702	158	299	28	8	300	92	-3	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	342	305	71	14	1	10	29	96	5	4	1	233	310	384	693	151	299	28	8	300	92	-3	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	337	301	70	14	1	10	29	95	4	4	1	233	308	385	694	153	299	28	9	299	91	-4	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	TEX	58%	350	312	72	14	1	10	30	99	5	4	1	231	308	378	687	147	298	28	9	297	90	-4	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	TEX	60%	357	318	72	14	1	10	31	102	5	4	1	226	305	371	676	145	296	29	9	294	88	-5	+0	-1	-2	+8	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3073	2750	634	125	9	88	256	872	41	34	9	231	306	379	684	148	302	28	8	296	81	-40	+3	-2	-18	+67	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	134	26	2	19	54	184	9	7	2	230	306	380	686	149	300	28	8	296	81	-8	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	6596	5922	1294	256	14	168	532	1950	86	66	23	219	292	352	644	133	293	30	8	289	81	-78	+5	-4	-34	+124	1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	127	25	1	17	52	192	8	7	2	217	290	351	641	134	290	30	8	289	81	-9	+1	-0	-4	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Nomar Mazaralast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,690 PA	4.1	2,690	85	7	256	315	414	-29	-21	3.7	3.7
/162	664	21	2	-7.1	-5.3	0.9	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	5.1	3,394	89	37	223	294	361	-20	+0	1.9	2.3
/162	664	17	7	-4.0	+0.0	0.4	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Pablo Guerrero (OGILVIE)	20	30	30	40	45	211/282/326	115	295	7	3	31%	8%	74	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Felix G. Santana 2014 · A	19	37	36→40	41→50	38	179/237/243	64	263	3	6	32%	5%	37	-3.3	220/276/302	82	293	5	8	25%	5%	65	-1.2	244/300/327	83	318	5	10	23%	4%	76	-0.1
✕Jose Quero 2019 · A	20	38	39→40	44→30	44	188/251/268	79	246	7	3	26%	7%	48	-2.5	205/261/316	111	263	10	6	25%	7%	62	-1.4	196/247/344	148	225	15	4	21%	6%	68	-0.2
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2010 · A	21	33	41→45	40→50	41	166/249/256	90	260	9	8	37%	8%	46	-2.6	199/274/309	110	312	10	5	36%	8%	67	-1.1	204/303/338	134	292	14	2	32%	11%	85	+0.1
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	38	42→40	44→55	39	190/253/289	99	277	10	9	34%	6%	54	-2.0	206/263/300	94	283	6	11	28%	6%	59	-1.6	204/262/298	94	272	5	15	25%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Erick Gonzalez 2011 · A	20	38	34→40	43→50	42	182/243/237	55	268	2	7	31%	7%	37	-3.3	210/295/284	74	272	3	10	22%	10%	68	-1.0	214/322/287	73	261	2	14	16%	13%	77	-0.1
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2013 · A	20	37	38→45	43→40	36	183/242/259	77	280	7	4	36%	5%	42	-2.9	207/259/301	94	287	7	4	29%	6%	58	-1.7	214/269/322	109	294	9	2	29%	6%	63	-0.6
✕Anthony Rodriguez 2016 · A	20	37	38→40	39→45	37	182/244/264	82	270	6	3	33%	5%	45	-2.7	171/254/244	73	261	5	5	34%	8%	45	-2.7	138/240/198	60	210	5	4	33%	9%	28	-1.5
✕Edgar Corcino 2012 · A	20	34→44	40→45	44→45	37	171/230/254	83	267	8	6	37%	6%	37	-3.3	197/252/293	96	298	9	6	35%	6%	53	-2.1	235/281/345	110	297	10	4	23%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Imbewer Alvarez 2007 · A	21	41	39→40	45→55	37	197/251/289	92	304	6	8	36%	6%	53	-2.1	211/275/294	83	302	6	15	30%	6%	63	-1.4	216/288/295	79	292	7	22	26%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	39	38→40	47→50	39	189/242/268	78	269	6	5	31%	6%	44	-2.8	186/245/258	72	280	3	6	32%	6%	43	-2.8	147/214/205	58	225	0	6	32%	6%	18	-1.5
✕Alexander Mojica 2023 · A	20	34	42→45	47→40	40	168/249/264	96	280	10	3	41%	8%	47	-2.5	199/279/320	121	325	12	6	39%	9%	72	-0.7	183/279/320	137	294	13	3	39%	10%	68	-0.4
✕Jaime Trejo 2006 · A	22	36→32	36→40	44→50	33	180/212/238	58	267	5	5	34%	4%	25	-4.1	206/249/291	85	278	7	7	27%	4%	52	-2.2	258/318/352	94	301	9	13	17%	6%	90	+0.3
✕Francisco Medina 2018 · A	20	40	38→40	45→40	39	194/247/263	69	280	6	5	32%	6%	45	-2.7	179/229/253	74	344	5	6	46%	6%	36	-3.4	135/180/213	77	254	5	6	47%	5%	6	-1.3
✕Darwin Rivera 2012 · A	20	40	40	40→30	35	195/235/283	88	285	8	3	34%	4%	45	-2.7	202/248/286	84	285	7	3	30%	5%	51	-2.3	192/240/269	77	263	7	0	28%	5%	42	-1.0
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A	20	35	42→40	47→50	36	182/227/281	99	253	10	6	32%	5%	41	-3.0	211/251/341	130	301	15	8	34%	4%	65	-1.2	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	61	-0.3
✕Maurizo Buda 2012 · A	20	40	37→40	38→40	42	189/263/261	72	271	5	4	30%	7%	51	-2.2	205/282/282	77	293	5	4	29%	8%	63	-1.4	192/282/254	62	276	4	1	29%	9%	57	-0.7
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	35	41→45	47→60	41	179/238/272	93	242	10	13	30%	6%	44	-2.8	221/272/301	80	288	7	19	24%	6%	63	-1.4	235/283/299	64	303	5	24	23%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2007 · A	20	35	37→45	48→45	34	175/223/246	71	263	5	6	34%	4%	32	-3.7	209/264/290	81	278	5	5	25%	5%	57	-1.8	217/275/301	85	280	4	3	23%	5%	63	-0.6
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	40→45	47→45	46	182/270/274	91	279	8	6	35%	10%	57	-1.8	191/265/269	78	298	5	6	34%	9%	53	-2.1	177/255/266	89	258	8	2	32%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	48	-2.5	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	56	-1.9	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	53	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps