Pablo Guerrero — OGILVIE

Pablo GuerreroOF ACL Rangers

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 200 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 278 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .257 / .290

PA278

HR4

K%32

BB%6

BABIP280

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	134	19	4	0	2	14	52	5	1	4	142	248	216	465	75	207	34	9	213	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	125	28	5	0	4	23	34	5	1	4	224	366	360	726	136	270	22	15	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	2 teams	—	317	292	55	11	1	5	15	126	4	2	1	188	238	284	522	96	299	40	5	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	2 teams	—	317	283	78	17	3	8	24	88	4	2	1	276	341	442	783	166	363	28	8	341	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	365	55	10	0	5	26	146	3	0	0	151	213	219	432	68	231	37	7	198	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	346	72	17	0	7	45	99	3	0	0	208	305	318	622	110	269	25	11	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	TEX	—	42	37	11	3	0	0	4	9	1	0	0	297	381	378	759	81	393	21	10	340	118	+1	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.2
YTD	20	ROK	TEX	—	42	34	13	4	0	0	7	6	1	0	0	382	500	500	1.000	118	464	14	17	450	202	+5	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.6
ROS	20	ROK	TEX	0%	278	255	50	10	1	4	18	88	3	2	1	196	257	290	547	94	276	32	6	244	45	-17	+0	+0	-2	+8	-1.1
ROS	20	MLB	TEX	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		277	—	—	237	40	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	TEX	—	42	38	11	3	0	0	4	9	1	0	0	289	381	368	749	79	379	21	10	340	118	+1	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.2
TOT	20	ROK	TEX	—	320	292	61	13	1	4	22	97	4	2	1	209	274	301	575	92	297	30	7	256	54	-17	+0	+0	-2	+9	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	TEX	34%	460	420	84	17	1	8	32	139	5	4	2	200	265	302	567	102	277	30	7	259	57	-23	+0	+0	-3	+13	-1.2
2028	22	MLB	TEX	48%	525	476	100	20	1	11	38	153	6	5	2	210	277	326	603	116	279	29	7	270	65	-21	+0	+0	-3	+15	-0.9
2029	23	MLB	TEX	54%	568	515	111	22	2	13	42	162	6	6	3	216	282	342	624	126	280	29	7	276	70	-19	+0	+0	-3	+16	-0.7
2030	24	MLB	TEX	55%	596	540	117	23	2	14	44	167	7	7	3	217	284	344	629	128	281	28	7	280	73	-18	+0	+0	-4	+17	-0.5
2031	25	MLB	TEX	56%	612	554	120	23	2	15	46	171	7	7	3	217	285	347	632	130	281	28	8	282	74	-18	+0	+0	-4	+17	-0.4
2032	26	MLB	TEX	56%	619	560	122	24	2	15	47	173	7	8	3	218	287	348	635	130	281	28	8	283	75	-18	+0	+0	-4	+18	-0.4
2027	21	MLB	TEX	34%	158	144	29	6	0	3	11	48	2	1	1	201	268	306	573	104	278	30	7	253	52	-9	-0	+0	-1	+4	-0.5
2028	22	MLB	TEX	48%	254	231	49	10	1	5	18	74	3	2	1	212	278	329	607	117	281	29	7	263	60	-12	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.6
2029	23	MLB	TEX	54%	308	279	60	12	1	7	23	88	3	3	1	215	282	341	622	125	282	29	7	270	65	-12	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.5
2030	24	MLB	TEX	55%	330	298	65	13	1	8	25	93	4	4	2	218	287	349	636	131	283	28	8	274	68	-12	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.5
2031	25	MLB	TEX	56%	343	310	67	13	1	8	26	96	4	4	2	216	285	342	627	126	283	28	8	276	69	-12	+0	+0	-2	+10	-0.4
2032	26	MLB	TEX	56%	348	315	68	13	1	8	26	97	4	4	2	216	284	340	624	124	283	28	7	276	70	-12	+0	+0	-2	+10	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1741	1578	338	67	5	39	129	496	20	18	9	214	282	337	619	123	284	28	7	271	65	-68	+0	+0	-10	+49	-3.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	127	25	2	15	48	185	7	7	3	216	283	341	624	126	285	28	7	271	65	-26	+0	+0	-4	+18	-1.1
Career	—			—	4526	4111	833	164	12	92	322	1377	53	42	22	203	269	315	585	113	278	30	7	262	59	-212	-0	+0	-27	+128	-11.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	120	24	2	13	46	198	8	6	3	203	270	317	587	114	279	30	7	262	59	-30	+0	+0	-4	+18	-1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	125	28	5	0	4	23	34	5	1	4	224	366	360	726	136	270	22	15	333	113	+2	-1	—	—	+4	0.5
2024	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	107	97	22	3	0	1	6	25	1	1	0	227	279	289	568	62	284	23	6	254	52	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2024	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	210	186	56	14	3	7	18	63	3	1	1	301	372	522	893	220	412	30	9	386	154	+13	-0	—	—	+6	1.9
2025	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	346	72	17	0	7	45	99	3	0	0	208	305	318	622	110	269	25	11	286	77	-10	+0	—	—	+11	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,062	44	21	209	272	326	-12	+0	-3.6	-1.8
	/162	664	14	7	209	272	326	-4.0	+0.0	-1.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Pablo Guerrero (OGILVIE)	20	30	30	40	45	209/274/301	92	297	4	2	30%	7%	54	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Roberto Perez 2009 · A	20	33	38→45	43→30	39	167/229/240	73	245	7	3	34%	6%	25	-3.5	200/268/307	107	263	11	4	27%	7%	59	-1.1	189/266/312	123	228	15	1	24%	8%	60	-0.4
✕Erick Gonzalez 2011 · A	20	38	34→40	43→50	42	182/243/237	55	268	2	7	31%	7%	29	-3.2	210/295/284	74	272	3	10	22%	10%	64	-0.8	214/322/287	73	261	2	14	16%	13%	74	-0.0
✕Anthony Rodriguez 2016 · A	20	37	38→40	39→45	37	182/244/264	82	270	6	3	33%	5%	37	-2.6	171/254/244	73	261	5	5	34%	8%	37	-2.6	138/240/198	60	210	5	4	33%	9%	18	-1.5
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2013 · A	20	37	38→45	43→40	36	183/242/259	77	280	7	4	36%	5%	35	-2.8	207/260/302	95	287	7	4	29%	6%	53	-1.5	214/269/322	109	294	9	2	29%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Cesar Quintas 2023 · A	20	41→36	36→50	41→45	37	192/263/256	64	299	4	5	35%	5%	44	-2.1	208/291/308	100	303	9	5	32%	7%	70	-0.3	202/292/323	121	282	13	6	30%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Edgar Corcino 2012 · A	20	34→44	40→45	44→45	37	171/230/254	83	267	8	6	37%	6%	29	-3.2	198/252/297	99	300	9	6	35%	6%	49	-1.8	229/276/341	113	292	10	4	25%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Alexander Mojica 2023 · A	20	34	41→45	47→40	39	168/245/259	91	281	10	3	41%	8%	37	-2.6	203/283/327	124	326	12	6	38%	9%	71	-0.3	196/292/343	147	309	14	3	37%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Felix G. Santana 2014 · A	19	37	36→40	41→50	38	179/237/243	64	263	3	6	32%	5%	29	-3.2	220/276/302	82	293	5	8	25%	5%	60	-1.0	244/300/327	83	318	5	10	23%	4%	73	-0.0
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2010 · A	21	33	41→45	40→50	41	166/249/256	90	260	9	8	37%	8%	39	-2.5	197/273/307	110	309	10	5	36%	8%	61	-1.0	204/303/338	134	292	14	2	32%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Jose Paniagua 2014 · A	20	34	37→50	42→55	38	168/222/238	70	249	4	6	33%	6%	20	-3.8	194/249/295	101	279	8	10	32%	6%	46	-2.0	195/250/314	119	272	10	13	31%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Francisco Medina 2018 · A	20	40	38→40	45→40	39	194/247/263	69	280	6	5	32%	6%	37	-2.6	179/229/253	74	344	5	6	46%	6%	27	-3.3	135/180/213	77	254	5	6	47%	5%	-6	-1.3
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2007 · A	20	35	37→45	48→45	34	175/223/246	71	263	5	6	34%	4%	23	-3.6	209/264/290	81	278	5	5	25%	5%	52	-1.6	217/275/301	85	280	4	3	23%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Maurizo Buda 2012 · A	20	40	37→40	38→40	42	189/263/261	72	271	5	4	30%	7%	45	-2.1	205/282/282	77	293	5	4	29%	8%	58	-1.2	192/282/254	62	276	4	1	29%	9%	51	-0.7
✕Darwin Rivera 2012 · A	20	40	40	40→30	35	195/235/283	88	285	8	3	34%	4%	37	-2.6	202/248/286	84	285	7	3	30%	5%	44	-2.1	192/240/269	77	263	7	0	28%	5%	34	-0.9
✕Victor Moscote 2014 · A	20	40	37→30	40→45	37	194/243/263	69	285	4	5	32%	5%	36	-2.7	209/262/265	56	278	2	5	24%	6%	44	-2.1	209/266/252	43	268	2	3	21%	6%	40	-0.8
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	39	38→40	47→50	39	189/242/268	78	269	6	5	31%	6%	37	-2.7	186/245/258	72	280	3	6	32%	6%	36	-2.7	147/214/205	58	225	0	6	32%	6%	7	-1.5
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	40	-2.4	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	46	-2.0	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Erick Gabo 2015 · A	20	36	37→45	43→55	30	173/212/242	70	297	4	6	42%	4%	17	-4.0	219/277/307	88	325	4	14	32%	6%	62	-0.9	240/303/343	103	353	3	22	30%	5%	79	+0.1