Kevin Made
SS Harrisburg Senators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AA/A+WSH | 386 | .220/.329/.300 | 2 | 13 | 42 | — | .186/.260/.253 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/AWSH | 369 | .232/.304/.293 | 4 | 9 | 51 | — | .217/.273/.265 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/AWSH | 65 | .259/.375/.296 | 0 | 1 | 68 | — | .232/.328/.268 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBWSH | 2 | .203/.268/.264 | 0 | 0 | 52 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBWSH | 47 | .208/.273/.282 | 1 | 1 | 59 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 243 | 235 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 57 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 272 | 296 | 366 | 662 | 94 | 356 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 151 | 130 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 31 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 162 | 268 | 246 | 515 | 85 | 202 | 21 | 13 | 241 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 257 | 222 | 59 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 49 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 266 | 358 | 450 | 809 | 185 | 299 | 19 | 11 | 357 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 383 | 335 | 73 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 72 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 218 | 309 | 319 | 628 | 101 | 267 | 19 | 10 | 287 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 85 | 76 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 158 | 229 | 211 | 439 | 53 | 204 | 26 | 7 | 204 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 301 | 251 | 60 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 74 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 239 | 357 | 327 | 684 | 88 | 330 | 25 | 13 | 316 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 348 | 309 | 67 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 54 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 217 | 290 | 275 | 565 | 58 | 246 | 16 | 8 | 259 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 21 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 474 | 524 | 579 | 1.103 | 105 | 600 | 19 | 10 | 490 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 34 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 364 | 286 | 649 | 36 | 333 | 24 | 15 | 300 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 31 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 269 | 387 | 308 | 695 | 38 | 318 | 13 | 13 | 330 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 243 | 237 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 236 | 255 | 321 | 576 | 84 | 355 | 33 | 2 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 151 | 135 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 141 | 221 | 215 | 436 | 74 | 183 | 26 | 9 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 257 | 230 | 53 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 68 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 230 | 303 | 387 | 690 | 157 | 278 | 26 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 383 | 350 | 67 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 97 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 191 | 253 | 283 | 536 | 91 | 246 | 25 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 85 | 78 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 154 | 205 | 205 | 410 | 51 | 206 | 32 | 5 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 301 | 267 | 52 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 100 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 195 | 276 | 266 | 542 | 71 | 292 | 33 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 348 | 316 | 66 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 66 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 209 | 267 | 256 | 523 | 47 | 242 | 19 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 21 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 350 | 381 | 400 | 781 | 50 | 511 | 29 | 5 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 34 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 241 | 333 | 276 | 609 | 34 | 322 | 29 | 12 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 31 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 222 | 323 | 259 | 582 | 37 | 283 | 16 | 10 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 243 | 237 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 236 | 255 | 321 | 576 | 84 | 355 | 33 | 2 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 243 | 235 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 57 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 272 | 296 | 366 | 662 | 94 | 356 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 408 | 365 | 71 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 107 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 195 | 270 | 312 | 583 | 118 | 248 | 26 | 8 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 408 | 352 | 80 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 46 | 80 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 325 | 375 | 700 | 148 | 263 | 20 | 11 | 314 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 383 | 350 | 67 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 97 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 191 | 253 | 283 | 536 | 91 | 254 | 25 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 383 | 335 | 73 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 72 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 218 | 309 | 319 | 628 | 101 | 267 | 19 | 10 | 287 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 386 | 345 | 64 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 126 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 186 | 261 | 252 | 513 | 67 | 281 | 33 | 7 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 386 | 327 | 72 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 96 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 220 | 329 | 300 | 629 | 80 | 300 | 25 | 12 | 291 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 369 | 335 | 72 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 72 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 215 | 273 | 263 | 536 | 48 | 260 | 20 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 369 | 328 | 76 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 58 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 232 | 304 | 293 | 597 | 61 | 266 | 16 | 8 | 272 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 65 | 57 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 328 | 281 | 609 | 35 | 326 | 23 | 9 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 65 | 54 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 259 | 375 | 296 | 671 | 37 | 326 | 18 | 14 | 314 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 243 | 235 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 255 | 323 | 579 | 85 | 355 | 33 | 2 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 408 | 367 | 71 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 107 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 270 | 311 | 581 | 117 | 243 | 26 | 8 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 383 | 351 | 67 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 97 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 191 | 253 | 282 | 535 | 91 | 246 | 25 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 386 | 348 | 64 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 126 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 184 | 261 | 250 | 511 | 66 | 273 | 33 | 7 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 369 | 339 | 72 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 72 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 212 | 273 | 260 | 533 | 47 | 257 | 20 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 65 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 328 | 276 | 604 | 34 | 303 | 23 | 9 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 386 | 348 | 64 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 126 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 184 | 261 | 250 | 511 | 66 | 273 | 33 | 7 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 369 | 339 | 72 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 72 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 212 | 273 | 260 | 533 | 47 | 257 | 20 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 65 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 328 | 276 | 604 | 34 | 303 | 23 | 9 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | WSH | 2% | 200 | 182 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 46 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 203 | 268 | 264 | 532 | 61 | 261 | 23 | 6 | 245 | 52 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | WSH | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 268 | 264 | 532 | 61 | 261 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 52 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | WSH | 31% | 151 | 138 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 273 | 282 | 556 | 74 | 263 | 23 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | WSH | 31% | 47 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 273 | 282 | 555 | 74 | 263 | 23 | 6 | 255 | 59 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 47 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 277 | 302 | 579 | 93 | 258 | 23 | 6 | 255 | 51 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 125 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 152 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 210 | 277 | 304 | 581 | 94 | 259 | 23 | 6 | 255 | 51 | -32 | +3 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2093 | 1908 | 390 | 79 | 7 | 20 | 132 | 552 | 29 | 37 | 11 | 204 | 266 | 285 | 551 | 80 | 273 | 26 | 6 | 244 | 51 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 121 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 171 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 204 | 266 | 283 | 549 | 79 | 273 | 26 | 6 | 244 | 51 | -34 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 34 PAwOBA .302 → .271 (−32)K% 23.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 10.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 29.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 4.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .302 → .271; ISO .036 → .032; BABIP .333 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 31 PAwOBA .323 → .265 (−58)K% 12.9% → 17.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 8.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 2.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 24.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 3.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .323 → .265; ISO .038 → .031; BABIP .318 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 348 PAwOBA .256 → .236 (−20)K% 15.5% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.52% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.76% | ÷0.967 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.35% | ÷1.009 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×1.027 | 21.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.35% | ÷0.887 | ×0.860 | ×0.996 | ×1.027 | 2.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.950 | ×0.996 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.57% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.30% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .256 → .236; ISO .058 → .052; BABIP .246 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 21 PAwOBA .478 → .371 (−107)K% 19.0% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 46.67% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 40.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 10.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 121, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .478 → .371; ISO .105 → .077; BABIP .600 → .511. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 301 PAwOBA .311 → .243 (−68)K% 24.6% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.58% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.96% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 7.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.16% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 20.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.60% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 8.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.016 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.50% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .311 → .243; ISO .088 → .074; BABIP .330 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 85 PAwOBA .201 → .181 (−21)K% 25.9% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.88% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.06% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 4.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.010 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | ×1.042 | 18.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.964 | ×0.860 | ×1.022 | ×1.042 | 1.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.915 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .201 → .181; ISO .053 → .044; BABIP .204 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 383 PAwOBA .281 → .233 (−48)K% 18.8% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.80% | ÷0.973 | ×1.310 | — | — | 25.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.18% | ÷1.005 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 6.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.87% | ÷0.981 | ×0.870 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 16.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.98% | ÷0.894 | ×0.780 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 7.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷0.913 | ×0.850 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.14% | ÷0.913 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.13% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .281 → .233; ISO .101 → .093; BABIP .267 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 257 PAwOBA .352 → .295 (−57)K% 19.1% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.07% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.51% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.81% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | ×1.030 | 19.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.09% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.030 | 7.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.068 | ×0.910 | ×0.983 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.20% | ÷0.942 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 4.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 89, 3B 114, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .352 → .295; ISO .185 → .156; BABIP .299 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).