Jonathan Roof
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 24 | A+/A2 orgs | 344 | .254/.324/.381 | 6 | 5 | 59 | — | .212/.266/.314 |
| 2014 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 438 | .278/.365/.423 | 7 | 3 | 78 | — | .236/.298/.347 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 348 | .223/.294/.301 | 3 | 6 | 43 | — | .205/.256/.274 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 21 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 143 | 125 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 256 | 336 | 288 | 624 | 32 | 286 | 10 | 9 | 287 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | — | 15 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 400 | 429 | 829 | 71 | 455 | 20 | 7 | 373 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 47 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 239 | 233 | 472 | 47 | 235 | 19 | 6 | 215 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 258 | 236 | 65 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 275 | 313 | 364 | 678 | 89 | 323 | 17 | 5 | 294 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA | Tucson Padres | — | 138 | 120 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 348 | 267 | 614 | 17 | 297 | 14 | 11 | 294 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 22 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 364 | 429 | 792 | 95 | 350 | 5 | 5 | 354 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 275 | 248 | 61 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 246 | 312 | 363 | 675 | 117 | 269 | 12 | 9 | 302 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 69 | 59 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 288 | 373 | 458 | 831 | 169 | 294 | 12 | 7 | 362 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 214 | 188 | 48 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 255 | 340 | 383 | 723 | 128 | 324 | 21 | 9 | 325 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 224 | 193 | 58 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 301 | 389 | 461 | 850 | 161 | 338 | 14 | 12 | 374 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 180 | 168 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 254 | 292 | 546 | 77 | 252 | 18 | 4 | 244 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 168 | 141 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 234 | 337 | 312 | 649 | 78 | 260 | 11 | 12 | 294 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 143 | 130 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 246 | 300 | 277 | 577 | 31 | 276 | 13 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 15 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 333 | 357 | 690 | 71 | 358 | 27 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 47 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 174 | 159 | 333 | 23 | 208 | 28 | 4 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 258 | 240 | 55 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 59 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 229 | 257 | 296 | 553 | 67 | 275 | 23 | 3 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA MLE | Tucson Padres | — | 138 | 124 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 234 | 312 | 250 | 562 | 16 | 289 | 18 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 22 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 364 | 429 | 792 | 95 | 312 | 5 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 275 | 255 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 49 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 204 | 254 | 294 | 548 | 90 | 236 | 18 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 69 | 61 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 246 | 313 | 393 | 707 | 148 | 253 | 16 | 4 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 214 | 194 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 58 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 222 | 288 | 320 | 607 | 98 | 296 | 27 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 224 | 204 | 51 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 308 | 373 | 680 | 123 | 295 | 20 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 180 | 170 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 220 | 259 | 479 | 71 | 233 | 23 | 3 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 168 | 148 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 223 | 294 | 291 | 585 | 68 | 245 | 14 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 158 | 144 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 243 | 297 | 271 | 568 | 28 | 289 | 15 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 158 | 139 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 266 | 342 | 302 | 644 | 36 | 301 | 11 | 9 | 295 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 305 | 284 | 61 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 72 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 215 | 244 | 275 | 519 | 60 | 279 | 24 | 3 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 305 | 279 | 73 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 52 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 262 | 302 | 344 | 646 | 82 | 310 | 17 | 5 | 282 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 146 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 306 | 260 | 567 | 21 | 292 | 16 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 160 | 141 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 350 | 291 | 641 | 28 | 306 | 12 | 10 | 302 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 344 | 316 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 212 | 265 | 313 | 579 | 101 | 243 | 17 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 344 | 307 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 254 | 324 | 381 | 706 | 127 | 274 | 12 | 8 | 314 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 398 | 94 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 103 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 236 | 298 | 354 | 652 | 118 | 301 | 24 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 438 | 381 | 106 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 78 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 278 | 365 | 423 | 787 | 144 | 331 | 18 | 11 | 350 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 348 | 318 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 65 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 204 | 256 | 267 | 523 | 63 | 247 | 19 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 348 | 309 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 52 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 223 | 294 | 301 | 595 | 78 | 256 | 15 | 8 | 268 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 158 | 146 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 240 | 297 | 267 | 564 | 27 | 284 | 15 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 305 | 291 | 61 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 72 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 210 | 244 | 268 | 512 | 58 | 265 | 24 | 3 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 145 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 306 | 262 | 568 | 21 | 292 | 16 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 344 | 318 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 211 | 265 | 311 | 577 | 101 | 239 | 17 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 400 | 94 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 103 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 235 | 298 | 352 | 650 | 117 | 295 | 24 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 348 | 323 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 65 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 201 | 256 | 263 | 519 | 62 | 239 | 19 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1753 | 1606 | 357 | 65 | 8 | 14 | 98 | 350 | 18 | 34 | 23 | 222 | 275 | 299 | 574 | 77 | 273 | 20 | 6 | 253 | 57 | -89 | -2 | +0 | +19 | +38 | -3.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 132 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 130 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 222 | 274 | 297 | 572 | 76 | 273 | 20 | 6 | 253 | 57 | -33 | -1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 180 PAwOBA .240 → .210 (−30)K% 18.3% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.33% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.44% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×0.965 | ×1.018 | 18.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.19% | ÷0.867 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×1.018 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.970 | ×0.965 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.48% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 1.25% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 73, 3B 102, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .240 → .210; ISO .077 → .068; BABIP .252 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 168 PAwOBA .291 → .256 (−35)K% 11.3% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.31% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.90% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.31% | ÷0.970 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×0.988 | 20.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.026 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×0.988 | 2.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×0.988 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.994 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.64% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 94, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .291 → .256; ISO .078 → .066; BABIP .260 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Salem Red Sox · 224 PAwOBA .370 → .299 (−70)K% 14.3% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.998 | ×1.420 | — | — | 20.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.05% | ÷1.031 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.98% | ÷1.015 | ×0.940 | ×0.999 | ×0.978 | 20.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.32% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.978 | 7.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.24% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×0.999 | ×0.978 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷1.025 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 2.13% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .370 → .299; ISO .161 → .135; BABIP .338 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 214 PAwOBA .316 → .267 (−50)K% 21.5% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.50% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.88% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.34% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 21.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.75% | ÷1.025 | ×0.860 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 6.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 1.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.11% | ÷0.959 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 103, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .316 → .267; ISO .128 → .107; BABIP .324 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Clearwater Threshers · 275 PAwOBA .296 → .240 (−56)K% 12.4% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.36% | ÷0.980 | ×1.420 | — | — | 17.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.73% | ÷1.045 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 6.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.09% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 17.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.14% | ÷0.978 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.40% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.87% | ÷1.253 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.30% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 98, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .296 → .240; ISO .117 → .093; BABIP .269 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ALakewood BlueClaws · 69 PAwOBA .362 → .312 (−50)K% 11.6% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.59% | ÷1.009 | ×1.340 | — | — | 15.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.25% | ÷1.021 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 4.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 3.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.57% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×0.980 | 19.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.84% | ÷0.988 | ×0.820 | ×0.968 | ×0.980 | 6.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.940 | ×0.968 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.92% | ÷0.801 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 3.93% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 113, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .362 → .312; ISO .169 → .161; BABIP .294 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAATucson Padres · 138 PAwOBA .287 → .257 (−30)K% 13.8% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.77% | ÷0.979 | ×1.290 | — | — | 18.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.87% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 7.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.050 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.72% | ÷1.007 | ×0.900 | ×1.046 | ×1.050 | 27.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.98% | ÷1.013 | ×0.810 | ×1.046 | ×1.050 | 1.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.046 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.050 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .287 → .257; ISO .017 → .014; BABIP .297 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 22 PAwOBA .345 → .298 (−47)K% 4.5% → 6.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.55% | ÷0.993 | ×1.340 | — | — | 6.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷0.979 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 3.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 23.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.998 | 7.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.930 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 95, 2B 107, 3B 99, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .345 → .298; ISO .095 → .075; BABIP .350 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).