Jose Colmenares — OGILVIE

Jose ColmenaresC Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 88 proj PA

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .290 / .316

PA88

HR1

K%25

BB%8

ISO99

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 56 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT56

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$2M	+$1.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$16M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	16	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	50	43	5	0	0	0	1	7	4	0	1	116	208	116	325		132	14	2	155	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	16	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	50	42	6	0	0	0	2	5	4	0	1	143	250	143	393		154	10	4	195	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	156	138	25	6	1	1	9	28	4	1	1	181	252	261	513	80	212	18	6	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	156	132	31	9	1	1	15	19	4	1	1	235	331	341	672	106	259	12	10	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	37	34	7	2	0	2	2	9	0	0	0	206	250	441	691	235	208	24	5	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	37	33	8	2	0	2	3	6	0	0	0	242	306	485	790	242	231	16	8	336	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	2 teams	—	79	70	12	3	0	2	4	22	3	0	1	171	247	300	547	129	213	28	5	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	2 teams	—	79	66	15	4	0	3	8	15	3	0	1	227	338	424	762	197	245	19	10	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	248	218	42	4	0	2	17	54	10	1	0	193	282	239	520	46	242	22	7	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	248	206	45	4	0	2	29	41	10	1	0	218	343	267	610	49	259	17	12	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	35	30	5	0	0	0	5	9	0	0	0	167	286	167	452		238	26	14	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	35	28	6	0	0	0	7	6	0	0	0	214	371	214	586		273	17	20	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	WSH	—	88	80	17	3	0	1	7	22	1	1	0	212	284	287	572	75	286	25	8	278	71	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	WSH	30%	159	143	33	6	1	3	13	39	2	3	1	231	304	350	653	119	288	25	8	286	77	-4	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2028	25	MLB	WSH	44%	261	234	53	10	1	5	21	64	4	4	1	226	301	342	643	115	288	25	8	291	81	-6	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.7
2029	26	MLB	WSH	51%	332	297	67	12	2	6	27	81	5	6	2	226	301	340	641	114	288	24	8	293	82	-7	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.9
2030	27	MLB	WSH	52%	371	333	76	14	2	7	30	91	5	6	2	228	302	345	647	117	288	25	8	294	83	-7	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.1
2031	28	MLB	WSH	53%	393	352	80	14	2	8	32	96	6	7	2	227	303	347	649	119	288	24	8	293	82	-8	+1	-1	+7	+11	1.0
2032	29	MLB	WSH	53%	400	358	81	14	2	8	33	99	6	7	2	226	302	344	646	117	287	25	8	291	81	-9	+1	-1	+7	+11	0.9
2033	30	MLB	WSH	52%	402	359	80	14	2	7	34	100	6	6	2	223	301	331	632	109	286	25	8	288	79	-10	+0	-2	+7	+11	0.7
2027	24	MLB	WSH	30%	48	43	10	2	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	233	312	349	661	116	288	25	8	275	69	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	25	MLB	WSH	44%	115	103	23	4	1	2	9	28	2	2	1	223	298	340	638	117	288	24	8	280	72	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	26	MLB	WSH	51%	169	151	34	6	1	3	14	41	2	3	1	225	299	338	637	113	288	24	8	282	74	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2030	27	MLB	WSH	52%	195	174	40	7	1	4	16	48	3	3	1	230	306	351	656	121	288	25	8	283	75	-6	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2031	28	MLB	WSH	53%	210	188	43	8	1	4	17	52	3	4	1	229	303	346	649	117	288	25	8	282	74	-6	+0	-0	+4	+6	0.4
2032	29	MLB	WSH	53%	210	188	43	8	1	4	17	52	3	3	1	229	303	346	649	117	287	25	8	280	73	-6	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.3
2033	30	MLB	WSH	52%	209	187	41	7	1	4	17	52	3	3	1	219	295	332	626	112	286	25	8	278	71	-7	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1156	1034	234	42	6	22	94	285	17	19	6	226	301	342	644	116	289	25	8	281	73	-35	+1	-2	+21	+33	1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	131	24	3	12	53	160	10	11	3	225	301	339	640	114	289	25	8	281	73	-20	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	3011	2689	583	102	13	52	235	721	56	42	15	217	293	322	616	106	274	24	8	278	71	-98	+2	-4	+54	+85	4.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	126	22	3	11	51	156	12	9	3	217	294	322	616	105	275	24	8	278	71	-21	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	16	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	50	42	6	0	0	0	2	5	4	0	1	143	250	143	393		154	10	4	195	8	-5	-0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2021	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	156	132	31	9	1	1	15	19	4	1	1	235	331	341	672	106	259	12	10	300	88	-2	-0	—	—	+4	0.2
2022	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	37	33	8	2	0	2	3	6	0	0	0	242	306	485	790	242	231	16	8	336	116	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	20	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	34	27	3	0	0	0	4	7	2	0	1	111	273	111	384		150	21	12	205	15	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	20	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	45	39	12	4	0	3	4	8	1	0	0	308	386	641	1.027	333	310	18	9	432	189	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	248	206	45	4	0	2	29	41	10	1	0	218	343	267	610	49	259	17	12	291	81	-5	+0	—	—	+7	0.2
2025	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	35	28	6	0	0	0	7	6	0	0	0	214	371	214	586		273	17	20	295	84	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,156	22	19	227	299	344	+21	+12	3.0	3.0
	/162	664	13	11	227	299	344	+11.9	+6.9	1.7	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Colmenares (OGILVIE)	23	51→56	32→37	43→48	50	218/290/316	98	286	1	1	25%	8%	71	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler Smith 2014 · A	23	49→54	39→40	50	44	230/289/323	93	288	5	11	21%	6%	71	-0.3	238/302/328	90	309	6	9	23%	8%	78	+0.2	241/302/328	87	309	6	8	23%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Marco Hernandez 2021 · A	23	46	39→40	49→45	47	220/285/308	87	282	6	8	23%	7%	66	-0.6	203/292/299	96	283	8	4	29%	9%	68	-0.5	162/268/244	82	214	10	0	27%	10%	41	-0.6
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A	23	43	38→30	48→40	51	205/292/282	77	270	6	7	25%	10%	63	-0.8	226/312/290	64	313	3	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1	233/324/284	51	328	2	2	26%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Andy Paz 2017 · AA	24	49	38→40	51→45	45	233/286/312	80	303	6	7	24%	7%	66	-0.6	214/262/283	69	291	5	9	26%	6%	48	-1.9	174/216/193	19	246	0	7	28%	5%	3	-1.6
✕P.J. Higgins 2016 · A	23	44→54	42→45	54→40	42	215/263/322	108	284	8	8	27%	6%	59	-1.1	228/299/300	72	289	3	4	20%	8%	69	-0.4	239/302/362	123	304	13	3	24%	8%	85	+0.5
✕Dixon Machado 2015 · AA	23	48→55	39→45	47→55	50	228/290/321	93	273	5	10	18%	8%	71	-0.3	239/289/314	75	287	5	12	18%	6%	68	-0.5	228/310/338	110	275	11	4	20%	9%	81	+0.3
✕Freddy Zamora 2022 · A	23	50→51	40	46→50	49	237/311/326	90	314	7	9	26%	9%	82	+0.5	219/289/306	87	305	7	13	28%	8%	67	-0.5	216/292/293	76	294	6	16	26%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Carter Jurica 2012 · A	23	44→54	42→40	48→45	47	211/291/317	106	283	9	11	27%	8%	72	-0.2	233/293/319	86	310	6	6	25%	7%	72	-0.2	238/298/316	77	315	5	4	24%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Paco Figueroa 2006 · A	23	53→56	37→40	49→55	50	246/319/325	79	310	3	11	20%	8%	84	+0.6	250/306/327	77	304	4	16	18%	6%	79	+0.3	258/316/340	82	311	3	19	17%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Wilver Perez 2007 · A	23	48	40→45	45	44	229/290/325	95	310	8	9	27%	7%	72	-0.2	219/274/319	100	317	7	14	31%	6%	63	-0.8	210/261/319	108	313	7	21	33%	6%	56	-0.3
✕Roy Morales 2018 · A	23	50	37→30	49→45	50	234/300/300	66	275	4	8	16%	7%	70	-0.3	228/291/302	74	282	4	10	19%	7%	66	-0.6	271/335/332	61	323	4	8	16%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Chris Denove 2006 · A	23	44	40	46→40	46	211/286/303	92	280	7	5	26%	8%	66	-0.6	199/259/270	71	270	4	4	26%	6%	44	-2.1	244/302/337	93	298	7	3	19%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Aaron McKeithan 2023 · A	23	45	41→40	45→40	44	215/291/309	94	292	8	4	28%	7%	69	-0.4	213/291/294	81	270	8	4	23%	7%	66	-0.6	205/291/269	63	262	7	0	23%	8%	57	-0.3
✕Shane Justis 2006 · A	23	45→52	40	46→50	43	216/274/315	99	270	7	7	22%	5%	63	-0.8	241/305/347	106	285	10	8	18%	7%	84	+0.6	250/315/348	98	292	8	10	17%	7%	86	+0.4
●Jake Elmore 2010 · A	23	47→57	38→40	46→55	51	223/294/310	87	271	5	10	19%	8%	70	-0.3	247/317/321	74	300	3	18	17%	9%	82	+0.5	261/334/334	72	315	2	23	16%	9%	91	+0.9
✕Mike Dowd 2013 · A	23	52	38→40	45→40	44	247/291/331	84	291	5	6	17%	5%	73	-0.1	207/251/281	74	259	5	4	22%	4%	43	-2.2	183/221/242	59	230	5	1	22%	2%	17	-1.5
✕Yoel Campusano 2010 · A	23	52→55	38→40	49→50	45	247/293/327	80	293	5	9	18%	5%	72	-0.2	224/276/319	95	288	8	9	24%	6%	64	-0.8	180/244/267	87	234	9	5	26%	8%	35	-0.7
✕Michael Garciaparra 2006 · A	23	52	41→40	45	45	249/316/348	99	315	8	10	23%	7%	89	+1.0	247/313/328	81	316	7	9	22%	7%	82	+0.5	252/318/322	70	323	6	8	22%	6%	80	+0.1
✕Gunnar Troutwine 2019 · A	23	48	39→45	48→30	48	230/291/315	84	294	6	4	23%	8%	69	-0.4	204/270/293	89	337	7	4	38%	8%	56	-1.3	187/259/279	92	318	9	1	41%	8%	44	-0.8
✕A.J. Jimenez 2013 · AA	23	51→57	41→45	48→50	42	246/287/348	102	303	7	11	21%	5%	76	+0.0	232/269/326	94	287	6	6	21%	5%	63	-0.9	228/262/316	88	282	5	3	20%	4%	55	-0.6