Jose Colmenares — OGILVIE

Jose ColmenaresC Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs A+ HR -9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2030

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .296 / .340

PA88

HR2

K%25

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

49↗54

PWR

33↗38

SPD

43↗48

EYE

46↗51

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.2	$12M	+$10M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.0	$10M	+$7M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.7	$4M	+$0.7M
Totals		$11M		$66M	+$55M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	16	ROK	DSL Nationals	50	43	5	0	0	0	1	7	4	0	1	.116	.208	.116	.325	.000	.132	14	2	.155	-23	-7	-0	+0	+1	+1	-0.5
2021	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	156	138	24	6	0	1	9	28	4	1	1	.174	.245	.239	.484	.065	.204	18	6	.224	30	-12	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.6
2022	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	37	34	7	2	0	2	2	9	0	0	0	.206	.250	.441	.691	.235	.208	24	5	.269	64	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2023	20	ROK	2 teams	79	69	12	3	0	2	5	21	3	0	1	.174	.260	.304	.564	.130	.213	27	6	.256	54	-4	-0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2024	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	248	217	42	4	0	2	18	56	10	1	0	.194	.286	.240	.525	.046	.247	23	7	.237	40	-17	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.5
2025	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	35	31	5	0	0	0	4	8	0	0	0	.161	.257	.161	.418	.000	.217	23	11	.218	25	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	WSH	88	80	17	3	0	2	7	22	1	1	0	.212	.284	.325	.609	.113	.286	25	8	.290	80	-2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 10%	WSH	159	143	32	6	1	3	13	39	2	3	1	.224	.297	.343	.640	.119	.288	25	8	.298	86	-3	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2028	25	MLB 25%	WSH	261	233	54	10	1	6	22	63	4	5	1	.232	.309	.361	.669	.129	.289	24	8	.303	90	-3	+1	+0	+5	+7	1.0
2029	26	MLB 43%	WSH	332	295	69	12	2	8	29	80	5	6	1	.234	.313	.369	.683	.136	.290	24	9	.306	92	-3	+1	+0	+6	+9	1.3
2030	27	MLB 58%	WSH	371	330	77	14	2	9	33	90	5	6	1	.233	.312	.370	.682	.136	.290	24	9	.306	93	-3	+1	+0	+7	+11	1.5
2031	28	MLB 68%	WSH	393	349	81	15	2	9	35	96	6	6	1	.232	.313	.364	.677	.132	.290	24	9	.305	92	-4	+1	-1	+7	+11	1.5
2032	29	MLB 77%	WSH	400	355	82	15	2	9	36	99	6	6	1	.231	.312	.361	.673	.130	.289	25	9	.303	90	-4	+1	-1	+7	+11	1.4
2033	30	MLB 84%	WSH	402	357	82	15	2	9	36	100	6	6	1	.230	.311	.359	.669	.129	.288	25	9	.300	88	-5	+1	-2	+7	+11	1.2
2034	31	MLB 91%	WSH	381	339	76	14	2	8	34	97	5	5	0	.224	.304	.348	.652	.124	.287	25	9	.297	85	-6	+1	-3	+7	+11	1.0
2035	32	MLB	WSH	356	316	71	12	2	8	32	92	5	4	0	.225	.306	.351	.657	.127	.285	26	9	.292	82	-7	+1	-4	+6	+10	0.7
2036	33	MLB	WSH	320	285	61	11	1	6	28	85	4	4	0	.214	.293	.323	.616	.109	.284	27	9	.287	78	-8	+1	-4	+6	+9	0.3
2037	34	MLB	WSH	273	243	52	9	1	5	24	75	4	3	0	.214	.295	.321	.616	.107	.283	27	9	.281	73	-8	+1	-5	+5	+8	-0.0
2038	35	MLB	WSH	219	195	41	7	1	4	19	62	3	3	0	.210	.290	.318	.608	.108	.281	28	9	.274	67	-8	+1	-6	+4	+6	-0.3
2039	36	MLB	WSH	165	148	31	5	1	3	14	49	2	2	0	.209	.287	.318	.604	.108	.279	30	8	.265	61	-7	+0	-6	+3	+5	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4725	4200	921	163	20	96	401	1178	79	62	10	.219	.299	.336	.636	.117	.279	25	8	.287	78	-117	+8	-31	+84	+134	7.9
/ 162G	—			650	578	126	22	3	13	55	162	11	9	1	.218	.298	.334	.632	.116	.278	25	8	.287	78	-16	+1	-4	+12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	16	ROK	DSL Nationals	50	42	6	0	0	0	2	5	4	0	1	.143	.250	.143	.393	.000	.154	10	4	.195	8	-5	-0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2021	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	156	132	31	9	1	1	15	19	4	1	1	.235	.331	.341	.672	.106	.259	12	10	.300	88	-2	-0	—	—	+4	0.2
2022	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	37	33	8	2	0	2	3	6	0	0	0	.242	.306	.485	.790	.242	.231	16	8	.336	116	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	20	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	34	27	3	0	0	0	4	7	2	0	1	.111	.273	.111	.384	.000	.150	21	12	.205	15	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	20	ROK	FCL Nationals	45	39	12	4	0	3	4	8	1	0	0	.308	.386	.641	1.027	.333	.310	18	9	.432	189	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	248	206	45	4	0	2	29	41	10	1	0	.218	.343	.267	.610	.049	.259	17	12	.291	81	-5	+0	—	—	+7	0.2
2025	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	35	28	6	0	0	0	7	6	0	0	0	.214	.371	.214	.586	.000	.273	17	20	.295	84	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Colmenares (OGILVIE)	23	49→54	33→38	43→48	51	.222/.296/.340	.118	.286	2	1	25%	8%	80	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Eduardo Valencia 2023 · A	23	44→54	42→50	49→30	45	.215/.282/.315	.100	.276	10	5	25%	7%	67	-0.5	.222/.280/.345	.123	.283	14	4	26%	7%	73	-0.1	.250/.305/.416	.166	.304	22	0	25%	6%	100	+1.0
✕Eric Fryer 2009 · A	23	51→59	44→45	51→50	43	.246/.297/.369	.123	.309	11	10	24%	6%	86	+0.8	.238/.302/.351	.113	.306	9	10	24%	7%	84	+0.6	.235/.309/.346	.111	.303	9	10	24%	8%	82	+0.3
✕Justin Miller 2012 · A	23	50→53	40→45	50	44	.237/.297/.334	.097	.312	7	8	25%	7%	77	+0.1	.241/.299/.348	.107	.320	11	14	26%	7%	82	+0.5	.241/.302/.344	.103	.319	11	16	26%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Austin Martin 2022 · AA	23	50	40	51→60	51	.232/.340/.330	.098	.317	7	14	26%	10%	96	+1.5	.224/.319/.308	.084	.281	6	25	21%	9%	82	+0.5	.251/.338/.332	.081	.305	5	25	18%	10%	92	+0.6
✕Steve Tolleson 2007 · A	23	46→53	42→45	45→50	52	.225/.301/.333	.108	.270	9	9	20%	9%	79	+0.3	.242/.311/.344	.102	.308	8	14	22%	9%	85	+0.7	.254/.312/.373	.119	.302	10	12	19%	7%	90	+0.8
✕Paul Vasquez 2008 · A	23	47	43→45	52→30	39	.231/.271/.342	.111	.307	10	9	28%	5%	68	-0.5	.234/.273/.339	.105	.293	8	5	22%	3%	68	-0.5	.235/.269/.339	.104	.292	8	2	22%	2%	63	-0.3
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	47→49	40→45	48→45	51	.222/.330/.318	.096	.290	7	9	24%	9%	90	+1.0	.229/.317/.341	.112	.289	10	7	23%	7%	89	+1.0	.230/.322/.343	.112	.289	11	5	22%	7%	88	+0.5
✕Zelous Wheeler 2010 · A	23	46→52	42→50	46→45	46	.225/.292/.332	.107	.286	9	8	24%	7%	76	+0.0	.238/.310/.361	.123	.288	11	8	20%	8%	91	+1.1	.242/.315/.375	.133	.285	14	7	19%	8%	93	+1.0
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→46	47→45	48→50	48	.209/.291/.351	.142	.259	14	9	25%	8%	81	+0.4	.205/.282/.337	.132	.267	13	9	27%	7%	73	-0.1	.223/.298/.355	.132	.277	12	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Brad Emaus 2009 · A	23	52→54	45	48→50	52	.253/.313/.384	.131	.284	11	9	16%	8%	97	+1.5	.237/.302/.360	.123	.270	12	9	16%	8%	86	+0.8	.230/.300/.354	.124	.261	13	9	17%	8%	82	+0.4
✕Brett Harris 2022 · A	24	45→50	45	49→50	43	.220/.290/.339	.119	.296	12	11	29%	7%	76	+0.1	.239/.311/.381	.142	.289	16	10	22%	8%	96	+1.5	.236/.316/.369	.133	.284	15	9	22%	8%	91	+0.9
✕P.J. Higgins 2016 · A	23	44→54	41→45	54→40	42	.215/.265/.321	.106	.286	8	8	27%	6%	59	-1.1	.230/.300/.300	.070	.287	3	4	19%	8%	69	-0.4	.241/.304/.366	.126	.307	13	3	24%	8%	87	+0.5
✕Curt Casali 2012 · A	23	45	45→50	49→30	51	.222/.289/.350	.128	.256	12	7	18%	8%	79	+0.3	.237/.308/.369	.132	.282	13	3	20%	8%	92	+1.2	.237/.317/.360	.123	.292	12	1	22%	9%	89	+0.6
✕Bryson Smith 2012 · A	23	50→59	46→45	48→50	45	.247/.318/.380	.133	.302	13	8	22%	6%	99	+1.7	.254/.306/.354	.100	.305	8	8	19%	4%	86	+0.8	.254/.307/.342	.088	.304	7	7	18%	4%	81	+0.2
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	42	44→50	49→40	49	.210/.296/.330	.120	.268	12	7	25%	9%	78	+0.2	.225/.309/.364	.139	.303	15	5	29%	8%	92	+1.2	.233/.304/.378	.146	.278	16	1	22%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Joel Capote 2013 · A	23	51	41→45	45→50	50	.242/.310/.350	.108	.290	7	9	19%	8%	87	+0.8	.213/.273/.291	.078	.272	4	10	22%	6%	56	-1.3	.189/.247/.247	.058	.245	2	12	22%	5%	30	-1.8
●Tyler Stephenson 2020 · AA	23	46→54	42→50	46→30	46	.223/.293/.329	.106	.288	10	3	25%	8%	76	+0.0	.247/.320/.374	.127	.312	13	3	24%	8%	98	+1.6	.253/.327/.399	.146	.323	16	1	25%	9%	102	+1.3
✕Joey Ortiz 2022 · AA	24	45→55	44→50	53→50	44	.219/.285/.340	.121	.291	11	11	28%	7%	74	-0.1	.246/.301/.390	.144	.301	13	10	22%	7%	93	+1.3	.250/.313/.398	.148	.304	13	11	21%	7%	97	+1.3
●Jeremy Peña 2021 · A	23	48→58	41→50	48→50	44	.231/.295/.328	.097	.305	8	13	26%	7%	75	-0.0	.242/.293/.390	.148	.305	17	13	26%	5%	91	+1.1	.274/.329/.411	.137	.319	14	17	18%	6%	107	+2.3
✕Michael Garciaparra 2006 · A	23	52	41→40	45	45	.248/.315/.347	.099	.313	8	10	23%	7%	89	+0.9	.248/.315/.329	.081	.317	7	9	22%	7%	84	+0.6	.253/.319/.323	.070	.324	6	8	22%	7%	81	+0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)