Jose Colmenares
C Wilmington Blue Rocks| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | A/ROKWSH | 79 | .227/.338/.424 | 3 | 0 | 53 | — | .170/.247/.295 |
| 2024 | 21 | AWSH | 248 | .218/.343/.267 | 2 | 1 | 46 | — | .194/.290/.241 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+WSH | 35 | .214/.371/.214 | 0 | 0 | 34 | — | .161/.257/.161 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBWSH | 200 | .215/.283/.319 | 3 | 3 | 71 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBWSH | 25 | .218/.286/.327 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBWSH | 65 | .220/.288/.334 | 1 | 1 | 77 | 0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 16 | ROK | DSL Nationals | — | 50 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 143 | 250 | 143 | 393 | 154 | 10 | 4 | 195 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | — | 156 | 132 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 331 | 341 | 672 | 106 | 259 | 12 | 10 | 300 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 37 | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 306 | 485 | 790 | 242 | 231 | 16 | 8 | 336 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 34 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 111 | 273 | 111 | 384 | 150 | 21 | 12 | 205 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 45 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 386 | 641 | 1.027 | 333 | 310 | 18 | 9 | 432 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 248 | 206 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 343 | 267 | 610 | 49 | 259 | 17 | 12 | 291 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 35 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 371 | 214 | 586 | 273 | 17 | 20 | 295 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 50 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 93 | 188 | 93 | 281 | 107 | 12 | 2 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 156 | 137 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 153 | 232 | 226 | 458 | 73 | 165 | 15 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 37 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 382 | 605 | 206 | 179 | 24 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 34 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 103 | 212 | 103 | 316 | 138 | 29 | 6 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 45 | 41 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 273 | 439 | 712 | 220 | 237 | 24 | 4 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 248 | 216 | 42 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 290 | 241 | 531 | 46 | 233 | 22 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 35 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 257 | 161 | 418 | 236 | 23 | 11 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 50 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 93 | 188 | 93 | 281 | 103 | 12 | 2 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 16 | ROK RAW | DSL Nationals | — | 50 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 143 | 250 | 143 | 393 | 154 | 10 | 4 | 195 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 156 | 137 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 153 | 232 | 226 | 458 | 73 | 172 | 15 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Nationals | — | 156 | 132 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 331 | 341 | 672 | 106 | 259 | 12 | 10 | 300 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 37 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 382 | 605 | 206 | 167 | 24 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Nationals | — | 37 | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 306 | 485 | 790 | 242 | 231 | 16 | 8 | 336 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 79 | 69 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 174 | 260 | 304 | 564 | 130 | 213 | 27 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 79 | 66 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 227 | 338 | 424 | 762 | 197 | 245 | 19 | 10 | 334 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 248 | 216 | 42 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 290 | 241 | 531 | 46 | 245 | 22 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 248 | 206 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 343 | 267 | 610 | 49 | 259 | 17 | 12 | 291 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 35 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 257 | 161 | 418 | 217 | 23 | 11 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 35 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 371 | 214 | 586 | 273 | 17 | 20 | 295 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 50 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 89 | 188 | 89 | 276 | 107 | 12 | 2 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 156 | 141 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 149 | 232 | 220 | 452 | 71 | 165 | 15 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 37 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 222 | 371 | 594 | 200 | 179 | 24 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 79 | 71 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 169 | 260 | 296 | 556 | 127 | 194 | 27 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 248 | 217 | 42 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 290 | 240 | 529 | 46 | 233 | 22 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 35 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 257 | 161 | 418 | 236 | 23 | 11 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 248 | 217 | 42 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 290 | 240 | 529 | 46 | 233 | 22 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 35 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 257 | 161 | 418 | 236 | 23 | 11 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | WSH | 0% | 200 | 180 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 53 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 215 | 283 | 319 | 602 | 103 | 281 | 26 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | WSH | 30% | 81 | 74 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 286 | 329 | 615 | 110 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 44% | 146 | 132 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 289 | 336 | 625 | 116 | 282 | 26 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 49% | 190 | 172 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 289 | 337 | 626 | 116 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | WSH | 30% | 25 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 286 | 327 | 613 | 109 | 281 | 28 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 44% | 65 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 288 | 334 | 622 | 114 | 282 | 26 | 8 | 281 | 77 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 49% | 93 | 85 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 289 | 335 | 624 | 115 | 282 | 26 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 183 | 167 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 210 | 279 | 299 | 578 | 90 | 276 | 26 | 8 | 281 | 53 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 124 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 170 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 209 | 278 | 300 | 579 | 91 | 274 | 26 | 8 | 281 | 53 | -18 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | 0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1069 | 951 | 183 | 29 | 3 | 17 | 75 | 242 | 27 | 8 | 5 | 192 | 271 | 283 | 554 | 90 | 235 | 23 | 7 | 247 | 53 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +10 | 0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 111 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 147 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 192 | 270 | 282 | 552 | 90 | 235 | 23 | 7 | 247 | 53 | -19 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 35 PAwOBA .289 → .218 (−71)K% 17.1% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.14% | ÷0.960 | ×1.310 | — | — | 23.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 12.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 23.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .289 → .218; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .273 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 248 PAwOBA .288 → .236 (−52)K% 16.5% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.53% | ÷1.038 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.69% | ÷1.044 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.03% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.64% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | — | 21.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.42% | ÷0.907 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | — | 2.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.21% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.90% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .288 → .236; ISO .049 → .040; BABIP .259 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Nationals · 45 PAwOBA .429 → .315 (−114)K% 17.8% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.78% | ÷1.011 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.89% | ÷1.013 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.13% | ÷0.983 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 13.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.90% | ÷0.971 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 9.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.034 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 7.44% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 107, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .429 → .315; ISO .333 → .248; BABIP .310 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 34 PAwOBA .201 → .156 (−45)K% 20.6% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.59% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.126 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 4.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 13.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.917 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .201 → .156; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .150 → .138. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Nationals · 37 PAwOBA .336 → .258 (−78)K% 16.2% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.22% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.11% | ÷0.960 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 5.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.81% | ÷1.019 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 11.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷0.953 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷0.911 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 6.31% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 104, 2B 91, 3B 100, K 101, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .336 → .258; ISO .242 → .197; BABIP .231 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Nationals · 156 PAwOBA .300 → .201 (−99)K% 12.2% → 15.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.18% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.62% | ÷1.005 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 6.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.70% | ÷0.971 | ×0.680 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 12.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.96% | ÷1.034 | ×0.600 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 4.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.88% | ÷0.862 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.48% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 94, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .300 → .201; ISO .106 → .062; BABIP .259 → .165. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 DSLDSL Nationals · 50 PAwOBA .199 → .146 (−53)K% 10.0% → 12.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 5.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.022 | 11.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .199 → .146; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .154 → .107. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).