Arnaldo Lantigua
RF Daytona Tortugas| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL LAD Mega | 193 | .301/.437/.575 | 11 | 6 | 65 | — | .177/.289/.305 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROKCIN | 335 | .265/.335/.490 | 12 | 2 | 53 | — | .187/.246/.332 |
| 2026 | 20 | A/ROKCIN | 476 | .263/.386/.436 | 14 | 4 | 80 | — | .212/.306/.342 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBCIN | 586 | .188/.270/.315 | 13 | 4 | 66 | -0.6 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBCIN | 151 | .198/.280/.348 | 4 | 1 | 74 | -0.5 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBCIN | 235 | .206/.287/.370 | 8 | 2 | 81 | -0.5 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | — | 119 | 99 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 222 | 347 | 475 | 822 | 253 | 224 | 22 | 15 | 361 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | — | 193 | 153 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 34 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 301 | 437 | 575 | 1.012 | 275 | 315 | 18 | 17 | 435 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 129 | 119 | 31 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 261 | 318 | 445 | 763 | 185 | 349 | 26 | 7 | 336 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 206 | 183 | 49 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 268 | 346 | 519 | 865 | 251 | 300 | 21 | 9 | 377 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 415 | 342 | 86 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 63 | 97 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 251 | 376 | 418 | 794 | 167 | 311 | 23 | 15 | 355 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 61 | 50 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 340 | 459 | 560 | 1.019 | 220 | 385 | 15 | 18 | 448 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 119 | 105 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 114 | 212 | 219 | 431 | 105 | 133 | 27 | 10 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 193 | 164 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 42 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 177 | 289 | 305 | 594 | 128 | 190 | 22 | 11 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 129 | 121 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 198 | 248 | 322 | 570 | 124 | 305 | 36 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 206 | 189 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 180 | 244 | 339 | 583 | 159 | 223 | 31 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 415 | 361 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 132 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 205 | 300 | 327 | 627 | 122 | 283 | 32 | 11 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 61 | 54 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 259 | 344 | 444 | 789 | 185 | 295 | 21 | 11 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 119 | 105 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 114 | 212 | 219 | 431 | 105 | 127 | 27 | 10 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL LAD Mega | — | 119 | 99 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 222 | 347 | 475 | 822 | 253 | 224 | 22 | 15 | 361 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 193 | 164 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 42 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 177 | 289 | 305 | 594 | 128 | 200 | 22 | 11 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL LAD Mega | — | 193 | 153 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 34 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 301 | 437 | 575 | 1.012 | 275 | 315 | 18 | 17 | 435 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 310 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 109 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 184 | 243 | 323 | 565 | 139 | 256 | 33 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 335 | 302 | 80 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 78 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 265 | 335 | 490 | 825 | 225 | 319 | 23 | 8 | 361 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 415 | 88 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 51 | 145 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 212 | 306 | 342 | 648 | 130 | 292 | 30 | 11 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 476 | 392 | 103 | 24 | 1 | 14 | 74 | 106 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 263 | 386 | 436 | 823 | 173 | 321 | 22 | 16 | 367 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 119 | 105 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 114 | 212 | 219 | 431 | 105 | 133 | 27 | 10 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 193 | 165 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 42 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 176 | 289 | 303 | 593 | 127 | 190 | 22 | 11 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 308 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 109 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 185 | 243 | 325 | 567 | 140 | 255 | 33 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 417 | 88 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 51 | 145 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 211 | 306 | 341 | 646 | 129 | 285 | 30 | 11 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 193 | 165 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 42 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 176 | 289 | 303 | 593 | 127 | 190 | 22 | 11 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 308 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 109 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 185 | 243 | 325 | 567 | 140 | 255 | 33 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 417 | 88 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 51 | 145 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 211 | 306 | 341 | 646 | 129 | 285 | 30 | 11 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | CIN | 0% | 586 | 522 | 98 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 167 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 188 | 270 | 315 | 584 | 127 | 244 | 28 | 9 | 265 | 66 | -24 | -0 | -7 | -6 | +13 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | CIN | 34% | 438 | 391 | 76 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 122 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 196 | 278 | 339 | 616 | 143 | 248 | 28 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -13 | +0 | -5 | -5 | +9 | -1.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | CIN | 48% | 486 | 433 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 15 | 45 | 133 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 203 | 284 | 359 | 644 | 157 | 252 | 27 | 9 | 289 | 81 | -11 | +0 | -4 | -5 | +11 | -1.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | CIN | 53% | 541 | 481 | 100 | 21 | 2 | 18 | 50 | 146 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 208 | 290 | 374 | 664 | 166 | 255 | 27 | 9 | 296 | 87 | -9 | -0 | -3 | -6 | +12 | -0.6 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | CIN | 55% | 578 | 514 | 109 | 23 | 2 | 20 | 53 | 154 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 212 | 293 | 383 | 676 | 171 | 257 | 27 | 9 | 301 | 90 | -7 | -0 | -3 | -6 | +13 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | CIN | 56% | 590 | 525 | 112 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 54 | 156 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 215 | 295 | 389 | 684 | 174 | 259 | 26 | 9 | 304 | 92 | -5 | -0 | -4 | -6 | +13 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | CIN | 55% | 590 | 525 | 112 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 54 | 157 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 214 | 294 | 386 | 681 | 173 | 259 | 27 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -6 | -0 | -4 | -6 | +13 | -0.4 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | CIN | 55% | 582 | 518 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 20 | 54 | 156 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 212 | 292 | 382 | 674 | 170 | 257 | 27 | 9 | 300 | 89 | -7 | -1 | -4 | -6 | +13 | -0.6 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | CIN | 53% | 565 | 503 | 105 | 22 | 2 | 19 | 52 | 153 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 209 | 289 | 375 | 665 | 166 | 256 | 27 | 9 | 297 | 87 | -9 | -1 | -5 | -6 | +12 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | CIN | 34% | 151 | 135 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 198 | 280 | 348 | 628 | 150 | 249 | 28 | 9 | 282 | 74 | -5 | -0 | -2 | -2 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | CIN | 48% | 235 | 209 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 64 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 287 | 370 | 657 | 164 | 253 | 27 | 9 | 293 | 81 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +5 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | CIN | 53% | 285 | 254 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 292 | 385 | 678 | 174 | 256 | 27 | 9 | 302 | 87 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | CIN | 55% | 316 | 281 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 84 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 215 | 296 | 395 | 691 | 180 | 259 | 27 | 9 | 307 | 90 | -4 | -0 | -2 | -3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | CIN | 56% | 328 | 292 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 30 | 87 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 218 | 298 | 401 | 699 | 183 | 260 | 27 | 9 | 310 | 92 | -3 | -0 | -2 | -4 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | CIN | 55% | 325 | 289 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 30 | 86 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 217 | 297 | 398 | 696 | 182 | 260 | 26 | 9 | 309 | 91 | -3 | -0 | -2 | -3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | CIN | 55% | 318 | 283 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 295 | 393 | 688 | 179 | 259 | 27 | 9 | 306 | 89 | -4 | -0 | -2 | -3 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | CIN | 53% | 301 | 267 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 82 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 212 | 292 | 387 | 679 | 175 | 257 | 27 | 9 | 302 | 87 | -5 | -0 | -3 | -3 | +7 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2259 | 2010 | 426 | 87 | 8 | 83 | 208 | 607 | 21 | 13 | 11 | 212 | 293 | 387 | 680 | 175 | 257 | 27 | 9 | 303 | 81 | -33 | -2 | -16 | -24 | +49 | -2.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 122 | 25 | 2 | 24 | 60 | 175 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 211 | 292 | 386 | 678 | 175 | 256 | 27 | 9 | 303 | 81 | -10 | -1 | -5 | -7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5703 | 5071 | 1034 | 222 | 20 | 177 | 525 | 1565 | 59 | 46 | 33 | 204 | 286 | 360 | 646 | 156 | 255 | 27 | 9 | 289 | 81 | -76 | -3 | -34 | -49 | +99 | -6.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 117 | 25 | 2 | 20 | 60 | 178 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 202 | 286 | 356 | 642 | 154 | 253 | 27 | 9 | 289 | 81 | -11 | -0 | -5 | -7 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 415 PAwOBA .351 → .282 (−69)K% 23.4% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.37% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 10.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 20.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 6.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.98% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .351 → .282; ISO .167 → .132; BABIP .311 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Reds · 61 PAwOBA .436 → .317 (−119)K% 14.8% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 11.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 19.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 8.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 3.75% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .436 → .317; ISO .220 → .164; BABIP .385 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Reds · 206 PAwOBA .368 → .244 (−125)K% 21.4% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.36% | ÷1.010 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.74% | ÷0.931 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.27% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | ×0.998 | ×0.995 | 13.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.07% | ÷0.963 | ×0.720 | ×0.998 | ×0.995 | 7.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.998 | ×0.995 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.19% | ÷1.252 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 4.46% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 102, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .368 → .244; ISO .251 → .153; BABIP .300 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 129 PAwOBA .327 → .249 (−79)K% 26.4% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.36% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.98% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×1.030 | 16.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.12% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×1.030 | 10.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.984 | ×1.030 | 2.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.35% | ÷1.032 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.88% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .327 → .249; ISO .185 → .133; BABIP .349 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL LAD Mega · 193 PAwOBA .430 → .264 (−166)K% 17.6% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.62% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.10% | ÷1.030 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 11.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.07% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.69% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 14.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.953 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 3.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.079 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.24% | ÷1.095 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 3.95% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 116, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .430 → .264; ISO .275 → .134; BABIP .315 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL LAD Mega · 119 PAwOBA .354 → .197 (−157)K% 21.8% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.85% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.13% | ÷1.050 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.07% | ÷0.998 | ×0.680 | ×0.951 | ×1.008 | 9.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.48% | ÷0.985 | ×0.600 | ×0.951 | ×1.008 | 3.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.600 | ×0.951 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.59% | ÷1.325 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 3.43% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 165, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 87, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .354 → .197; ISO .253 → .100; BABIP .224 → .133. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).