Rainer Nunez
1B Buffalo Bisons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 542 | .244/.302/.373 | 14 | 1 | 55 | — | .216/.261/.313 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 552 | .264/.352/.386 | 13 | 2 | 85 | — | .252/.309/.353 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 325 | .250/.320/.370 | 7 | 2 | 66 | — | .224/.281/.321 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 26 | MLBTOR | 16 | .227/.286/.336 | 0 | 0 | 75 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 27 | MLBTOR | 65 | .227/.286/.336 | 1 | 1 | 75 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | — | 272 | 247 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 247 | 303 | 328 | 631 | 81 | 268 | 11 | 6 | 283 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 153 | 133 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 173 | 257 | 286 | 542 | 113 | 194 | 21 | 8 | 243 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 23 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 391 | 421 | 812 | 158 | 286 | 17 | 13 | 371 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | — | 146 | 124 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 274 | 375 | 484 | 859 | 210 | 293 | 15 | 14 | 375 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 116 | 106 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 321 | 379 | 491 | 870 | 170 | 400 | 23 | 9 | 386 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 384 | 361 | 108 | 19 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 82 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 299 | 332 | 482 | 814 | 183 | 346 | 21 | 4 | 354 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | INTL | Estrellas Orientales | — | 145 | 137 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 303 | 445 | 749 | 182 | 282 | 19 | 6 | 330 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 326 | 304 | 68 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 274 | 352 | 626 | 128 | 280 | 27 | 6 | 280 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 159 | 139 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 309 | 392 | 446 | 838 | 137 | 374 | 19 | 10 | 375 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | INTL | Estrellas Orientales | — | 57 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 211 | 304 | 514 | 107 | 227 | 19 | 2 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 433 | 385 | 106 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 87 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 275 | 351 | 416 | 767 | 140 | 325 | 20 | 10 | 342 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | INTL | Estrellas Orientales | — | 119 | 99 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 222 | 353 | 273 | 626 | 51 | 288 | 21 | 14 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 300 | 270 | 68 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 72 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 252 | 324 | 374 | 698 | 122 | 318 | 24 | 8 | 316 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL | Estrellas Orientales | — | 25 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 227 | 261 | 318 | 579 | 91 | 294 | 24 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 272 | 252 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 159 | 206 | 206 | 412 | 48 | 172 | 14 | 4 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 153 | 138 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 123 | 182 | 196 | 378 | 72 | 146 | 30 | 5 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 23 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 348 | 400 | 748 | 150 | 274 | 22 | 9 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 146 | 132 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 356 | 627 | 152 | 224 | 22 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 116 | 110 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 310 | 391 | 701 | 118 | 379 | 31 | 5 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 384 | 367 | 90 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 110 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 269 | 390 | 659 | 144 | 304 | 29 | 2 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 326 | 311 | 61 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 231 | 289 | 520 | 93 | 277 | 34 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 159 | 144 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 323 | 361 | 684 | 104 | 328 | 25 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 433 | 397 | 100 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 107 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 309 | 353 | 662 | 101 | 318 | 25 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 300 | 277 | 62 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 88 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 281 | 321 | 602 | 97 | 305 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 272 | 252 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 159 | 206 | 206 | 412 | 48 | 178 | 14 | 4 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Blue Jays | — | 272 | 247 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 247 | 303 | 328 | 631 | 81 | 268 | 11 | 6 | 283 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 153 | 138 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 123 | 182 | 196 | 378 | 72 | 158 | 30 | 5 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Blue Jays | — | 153 | 133 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 173 | 257 | 286 | 542 | 113 | 194 | 21 | 8 | 243 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 169 | 152 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 275 | 355 | 631 | 151 | 232 | 22 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 169 | 143 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 377 | 476 | 853 | 203 | 292 | 15 | 14 | 375 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 645 | 617 | 154 | 24 | 1 | 20 | 19 | 189 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 277 | 389 | 666 | 139 | 324 | 29 | 3 | 290 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 645 | 604 | 178 | 29 | 1 | 26 | 32 | 136 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 295 | 334 | 475 | 810 | 180 | 340 | 21 | 5 | 354 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 542 | 510 | 110 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 168 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 259 | 316 | 575 | 100 | 297 | 31 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 542 | 499 | 122 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 129 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 302 | 373 | 675 | 128 | 302 | 24 | 7 | 302 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 552 | 505 | 127 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 136 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 251 | 311 | 349 | 660 | 97 | 323 | 25 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 552 | 484 | 128 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 61 | 112 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 264 | 352 | 386 | 738 | 122 | 318 | 20 | 11 | 334 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 325 | 298 | 67 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 95 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 283 | 319 | 601 | 94 | 307 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 325 | 292 | 73 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 78 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 250 | 320 | 370 | 690 | 120 | 316 | 24 | 8 | 310 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 272 | 255 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 157 | 206 | 204 | 410 | 47 | 172 | 14 | 4 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 153 | 142 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 120 | 182 | 190 | 373 | 70 | 146 | 30 | 5 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 169 | 152 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 275 | 355 | 631 | 151 | 231 | 22 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 645 | 617 | 154 | 24 | 1 | 20 | 19 | 189 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 277 | 389 | 666 | 139 | 321 | 29 | 3 | 290 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 542 | 507 | 110 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 168 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 259 | 318 | 577 | 101 | 294 | 31 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 552 | 503 | 127 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 136 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 252 | 311 | 350 | 661 | 97 | 318 | 25 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 325 | 298 | 67 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 95 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 283 | 319 | 601 | 94 | 305 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 552 | 503 | 127 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 136 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 252 | 311 | 350 | 661 | 97 | 318 | 25 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 325 | 298 | 67 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 95 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 283 | 319 | 601 | 94 | 305 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | TOR | 10% | 350 | 320 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 97 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 285 | 335 | 620 | 108 | 299 | 28 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -10 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | TOR | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 286 | 336 | 621 | 108 | 301 | 25 | 6 | 280 | 75 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | TOR | 31% | 209 | 191 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 58 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 286 | 335 | 621 | 109 | 298 | 28 | 7 | 280 | 75 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +5 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | TOR | 31% | 65 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 286 | 336 | 623 | 109 | 299 | 28 | 6 | 280 | 75 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 65 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 277 | 300 | 577 | 83 | 293 | 28 | 6 | 280 | 64 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 130 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 180 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 217 | 277 | 300 | 577 | 83 | 293 | 28 | 6 | 280 | 64 | -19 | +2 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3022 | 2805 | 620 | 96 | 6 | 62 | 161 | 809 | 28 | 10 | 11 | 221 | 270 | 326 | 596 | 105 | 285 | 27 | 5 | 263 | 64 | -11 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +8 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 133 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 174 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 221 | 270 | 323 | 594 | 103 | 284 | 27 | 5 | 263 | 64 | -19 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 300 PAwOBA .309 → .269 (−40)K% 24.0% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.00% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.75% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 24.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.098 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 4.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.54% | ÷0.847 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.02% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .309 → .269; ISO .122 → .099; BABIP .318 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 433 PAwOBA .336 → .291 (−45)K% 20.1% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.09% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.16% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.17% | ÷1.015 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 26.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.70% | ÷1.051 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 4.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.03% | ÷1.145 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.78% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .336 → .291; ISO .140 → .104; BABIP .325 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 326 PAwOBA .273 → .230 (−43)K% 27.0% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.99% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.44% | ÷1.105 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.69% | ÷1.023 | ×0.970 | ×1.036 | ×1.027 | 22.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.963 | ×0.860 | ×1.036 | ×1.027 | 3.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.950 | ×1.036 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.71% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 93, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .273 → .230; ISO .128 → .100; BABIP .280 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 159 PAwOBA .365 → .297 (−68)K% 18.9% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.87% | ÷1.028 | ×1.350 | — | — | 24.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷0.992 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.44% | ÷1.006 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 25.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.34% | ÷0.949 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 6.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.92% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.75% | ÷1.253 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 1.82% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 106, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .365 → .297; ISO .137 → .103; BABIP .374 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 384 PAwOBA .348 → .284 (−64)K% 21.4% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.35% | ÷1.017 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.39% | ÷1.050 | ×0.690 | — | — | 2.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.16% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | — | 23.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.81% | ÷0.983 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | — | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.983 | — | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.38% | ÷0.916 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.69% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .348 → .284; ISO .183 → .149; BABIP .346 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Vancouver Canadians · 116 PAwOBA .372 → .311 (−62)K% 23.3% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.28% | ÷1.003 | ×1.350 | — | — | 31.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.76% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.38% | ÷0.950 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 30.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷1.254 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.06% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 4.47% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 90, 2B 151, 3B 80, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .372 → .311; ISO .170 → .130; BABIP .400 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 146 PAwOBA .371 → .269 (−102)K% 15.1% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.07% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 8.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.003 | ×0.985 | 14.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.003 | ×0.985 | 7.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.003 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 3.77% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .371 → .269; ISO .210 → .156; BABIP .293 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADunedin Blue Jays · 23 PAwOBA .362 → .308 (−53)K% 17.4% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.39% | ÷1.057 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷0.941 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.959 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 25.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 5.36% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 92, 2B 103, 3B 104, K 111, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .362 → .308; ISO .158 → .125; BABIP .286 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .