Logan Davidson

1B Durham Bulls
Age 29 S/R 6'3" / 185 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2030
Overview
AAAROOKIEArb-1FA 2031
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202426AAA/INTL2 orgs373.288/.365/.51214890—.244/.297/.409
202527AAAHOU423.250/.387/.39510781—.214/.309/.322
202527MLBLAA47.167/.222/.2861036-1.4
202628AAATB422.204/.313/.376151343—.161/.243/.278
2027PROJ10% MLB29MLBTB16.210/.288/.3440079-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB30MLBTB74.208/.285/.3382177-0.2
Last 3 seasons WAR -1.4  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2
2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$0.3M2029Ext$0.4M2030Ext$0.7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
BB%67
Max EV64
Speed64
Chase%21
Z-Con%17
K%16
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%
CompsBrett Carroll (age 29) · Ryan Cordell (age 29) · Brent Clevlen (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†79
AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .288 / .344
PA16
HR0
K%38
BB%6
BABIP307
ISO67
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -2.8 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025
CONTACT45
xAVG
100.138
POWER45
Barrel%
214.5
Avg EV
2887.4
Bat Spd
5772.0
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED50
Sprint
4327.2
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut   2025
Service   2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$0.2M———
2028Arb-2$0.3M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.9M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202123 AAMidland RockHounds — 515448 952217 621551 43 212309312622 100304 3012 286 38 — — — — — —
202123 INTLMesa Solar Sox — 9073 20402 15331 11 274404411815 137462 3717 369 136 — — — — — —
202224 AAMidland RockHounds — 484424 10721114 531343 41 252340406745 153332 2811 333 72 — — — — — —
202325 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 232208 551213 21511 41 264335375710 111335 229 319 60 — — — — — —
202325 AAMidland RockHounds — 206182 541117 22562 22 297379484862 187395 2711 383 81 — — — — — —
202426 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 347310 9323414 271087 72 300369535905 235414 318 392 93 — — — — — —
202426 INTLTigres del Licey — 2620 2100 4132 10 100308150458 50286 5015 248 54 — — — — — —
202527 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 4742 7201 3220 00 167222286508 119316 476 220 36 -4 +0 -3 -8 +1 -1.4
202527 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 423344 8618110 731194 72 250387395783 145350 2817 357 81 — — — — — —
202628 AAADurham Bulls — 422362 7413215 511326 134 204313376688 171272 3112 310 43 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 4742 7201 3220 00 167222286508 119316 476 220 35 -4 +0 -3 -8 +1 -1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202123 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 515468 811916 421931 43 173243256499 83270 378 225 38 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 484439 9317114 381643 41 212279351630 139293 348 275 72 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 232215 49912 14601 41 228278307585 79298 266 257 60 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 206189 44816 15702 22 233296381677 148331 347 288 81 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 347320 7817310 171277 72 244297409706 166359 375 306 93 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 4742 7201 3220 00 167222286508 119316 476 222 36 -4 +0 -3 -8 +1 -1.4
202527 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 423370 791717 471434 72 214309322630 108326 3411 288 81 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 422378 6110210 351586 134 161243278521 116235 378 232 43 — — — — — —
202123 AA MLE2 teams — 605548 952217 502262 54 173245255500 82276 378 225 38 — — — — — —
202123 AA RAW2 teams — 605521 1152619 771882 54 221323326650 106323 3113 298 38 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 484439 9317114 381643 41 212279351630 139298 348 275 72 — — — — — —
202224 AA RAWMidland RockHounds — 484424 10721114 531343 41 252340406745 153332 2811 333 72 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 438404 921728 291303 63 228284339624 111315 307 272 70 — — — — — —
202325 AAA RAW2 teams — 438390 10923210 431073 63 279356426781 146361 2410 349 70 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 373342 8418410 191369 82 246303409712 164372 365 306 93 — — — — — —
202426 AAA RAW2 teams — 373330 9524414 311219 82 288365512877 224409 328 382 93 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 470412 861918 501654 72 209300318618 109324 3511 281 77 — — — — — —
202527 AAA RAW2 teams — 470386 9320111 761414 72 241371383755 142347 3016 343 77 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 422378 6110210 351586 134 161243278521 116241 378 232 43 — — — — — —
202628 AAA RAWDurham Bulls — 422362 7413215 511326 134 204313376688 171272 3112 310 43 — — — — — —
202123 AA MLE2 teams — 605548 952217 502262 54 173245255500 82270 378 225 38 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 484440 9317114 381643 41 211279350629 139293 348 275 72 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 438403 921728 291303 63 228284340624 112314 307 272 70 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 373342 8418410 191369 82 246303409712 164359 365 306 93 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 470413 861918 501654 72 208300317618 109325 3511 281 77 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 422378 6110210 351586 134 161243278521 116235 378 232 43 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 373342 8418410 191369 82 246303409712 164359 365 306 93 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 470413 861918 501654 72 208300317618 109325 3511 281 77 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 422378 6110210 351586 134 161243278521 116235 378 232 43 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLETB 10% 380339 7114210 331325 82 208287345632 137304 359 285 79 -10 +1 -1 -7 +8 -0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXTB 10% 1615 3100 160 00 210288344632 134307 386 285 79 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLETB 27% 272244 511017 23943 41 207284340624 133300 358 281 77 -8 +0 -3 -5 +6 -0.9
202830 MLB CTXTB 27% 7467 14302 6251 10 208285338624 130303 348 281 77 -2 +0 -1 -1 +2 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 121109 21503 9471 10 193261321582 128305 397 258 66 -6 +0 -3 -10 +3 -1.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650586 11327016 482525 50 193260321581 128305 397 258 66 -31 +1 -18 -52 +14 -8.7
Career— MLE — 32192906 5921191368 257112732 5018 204276324600 120303 358 265 66 -15 +1 -6 -16 +10 -2.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650587 12024314 522286 104 204276327603 123304 358 265 66 -21 +1 -8 -22 +14 -3.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 422 PAwOBA .304 → .232 (−72)K% 31.3% → 37.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.28%÷1.000×1.200——37.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.09%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9828.19%
HBP% /PA1.42%—×0.940—×0.9821.31%
Singles /BIP19.13%÷1.000×0.930×0.989×0.98217.29%
Doubles /BIP5.65%÷1.000×0.830×0.989×0.9824.56%
Triples /BIP0.87%÷1.000×0.970×0.989×0.9820.82%
Home runs /BIP6.52%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9824.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .304 → .232; ISO .171 → .121; BABIP .272 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 423 PAwOBA .349 → .288 (−61)K% 28.1% → 33.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.13%÷0.995×1.200——33.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.02%÷1.056×0.690—×0.99211.04%
HBP% /PA0.95%—×0.940—×0.9920.88%
Singles /BIP25.33%÷1.012×0.930×1.029×0.99223.75%
Doubles /BIP8.00%÷0.891×0.830×1.029×0.9927.60%
Triples /BIP0.44%÷0.900×0.970×1.029×0.9920.49%
Home runs /BIP4.44%÷0.961×0.700—×0.9923.21%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .349 → .288; ISO .145 → .121; BABIP .350 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 347 PAwOBA .382 → .306 (−76)K% 31.1% → 36.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.12%÷1.022×1.200——36.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.92%÷0.952×0.690—×1.0035.03%
HBP% /PA2.02%—×0.940—×1.0031.90%
Singles /BIP25.74%÷0.974×0.930×0.991×1.00324.44%
Doubles /BIP11.39%÷1.088×0.830×0.991×1.0038.63%
Triples /BIP1.98%÷1.150×0.970×0.991×1.0031.66%
Home runs /BIP6.93%÷1.001×0.700—×1.0034.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .382 → .306; ISO .235 → .168; BABIP .414 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 232 PAwOBA .312 → .257 (−55)K% 22.0% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.98%÷1.017×1.200——25.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.05%÷1.055×0.690—×1.0186.03%
HBP% /PA0.43%—×0.940—×1.0180.41%
Singles /BIP24.84%÷0.993×0.930×0.986×1.01823.36%
Doubles /BIP7.64%÷1.124×0.830×0.986×1.0185.67%
Triples /BIP0.64%÷1.133×0.970×0.986×1.0180.55%
Home runs /BIP1.91%÷0.996×0.700—×1.0181.37%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 127, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .312 → .257; ISO .111 → .082; BABIP .335 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 206 PAwOBA .372 → .288 (−84)K% 27.2% → 33.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.18%÷0.981×1.220——33.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.68%÷1.031×0.700—×0.9887.16%
HBP% /PA0.97%—×0.870—×0.9880.83%
Singles /BIP27.78%÷1.021×0.920×0.971×0.98824.01%
Doubles /BIP8.73%÷1.011×0.840×0.971×0.9886.96%
Triples /BIP0.79%÷1.150×0.940×0.971×0.9880.62%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷0.957×0.800—×0.9884.59%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .372 → .288; ISO .187 → .145; BABIP .395 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMidland RockHounds · 484 PAwOBA .327 → .275 (−52)K% 27.7% → 33.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.69%÷0.995×1.220——33.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.95%÷0.968×0.700—×0.9987.91%
HBP% /PA0.62%—×0.870—×0.9980.54%
Singles /BIP24.48%÷1.067×0.920×1.031×0.99821.72%
Doubles /BIP7.24%÷1.007×0.840×1.031×0.9986.22%
Triples /BIP0.34%÷0.931×0.940×1.031×0.9980.36%
Home runs /BIP4.83%÷0.793×0.800—×0.9984.86%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 113, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .327 → .275; ISO .153 → .142; BABIP .332 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMidland RockHounds · 515 PAwOBA .281 → .225 (−56)K% 30.1% → 37.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.10%÷0.983×1.220——37.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.04%÷1.027×0.690—×1.0128.19%
HBP% /PA0.19%—×0.850—×1.0120.17%
Singles /BIP22.18%÷1.096×0.940×1.024×1.01219.70%
Doubles /BIP7.51%÷1.018×0.870×1.024×1.0126.64%
Triples /BIP0.34%÷1.127×0.920×1.024×1.0120.29%
Home runs /BIP2.39%÷0.838×0.780—×1.0122.25%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 125, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .281 → .225; ISO .100 → .087; BABIP .304 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .