Ezequiel Martinez

Ezequiel Martinez P DSL Tampa Bay

Age 19 RHP 6'3" / 219 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%22.2%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	9	1	12	53	13	5	0	11%	1.3	16.7%	11.8%	4.9%	0.0%	3.09	3.19	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	9	1	12	53	13	5	0	11%	1.3	16.7%	11.8%	4.9%	0.0%	3.09	3.19	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	9	1	12	53	13	5	0	11%	1.3	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	0.0%	3.09	2.16	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	9	46	201	36	18	2	75%	3.8	12.2%	11.2%	1.0%	1.4%	3.13	4.25	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	9	46	201	36	18	2	75%	3.8	12.2%	11.2%	1.0%	1.4%	3.13	4.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	TB	12	9	46	201	36	18	2	75%	3.8	17.9%	9.0%	9.0%	1.0%	3.13	3.27	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	47	199	45	20	6	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	2.9%	4.46	4.40	+0.3
2028	21	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	50	209	49	20	6	100%	5.5	23.2%	9.4%	13.8%	2.8%	4.35	4.28	+0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	52	220	53	19	6	100%	5.8	24.1%	8.8%	15.3%	2.8%	4.20	4.10	+0.5
2030	23	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	54	228	57	19	6	100%	5.4	24.8%	8.5%	16.3%	2.8%	4.06	3.97	+0.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	56	234	59	19	6	100%	5.5	25.4%	8.2%	17.1%	2.7%	3.95	3.88	+0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	56	237	61	19	6	100%	5.6	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	2.7%	3.87	3.82	+0.7
2033	26	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	56	237	62	19	6	100%	6.2	25.9%	8.1%	17.8%	2.7%	3.83	3.80	+0.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	55	234	61	19	6	100%	6.2	25.9%	8.2%	17.8%	2.8%	3.84	3.84	+0.7
2027	20	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	23	97	22	10	3	100%	5.8	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	3.0%	4.51	4.45	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	36	152	35	14	4	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.4%	13.8%	2.9%	4.40	4.33	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	44	186	45	16	5	100%	5.5	24.1%	8.8%	15.3%	2.9%	4.25	4.15	+0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	49	207	51	18	6	100%	5.4	24.8%	8.5%	16.3%	2.8%	4.11	4.02	+0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	51	215	55	18	6	100%	5.7	25.4%	8.2%	17.1%	2.8%	3.99	3.92	+0.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	53	224	58	18	6	100%	5.9	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	2.8%	3.91	3.86	+0.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	53	224	58	18	6	100%	5.9	25.9%	8.1%	17.8%	2.8%	3.87	3.84	+0.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	53	224	58	18	6	100%	5.9	25.9%	8.2%	17.8%	2.8%	3.89	3.89	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	362	1527	381	130	43	100%	5.7	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	2.8%	4.07	3.63	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	211	72	24	100%	5.7	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	2.8%	4.07	3.63	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		21	10	58	254	33	29	3	48%	2.7	13.1%	11.3%	1.8%	1.1%	3.12	4.03	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	35	200	881	116	100	10	48%	2.7	13.1%	11.3%	1.8%	1.1%	3.12	4.03	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ezequiel Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	22.2%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.26	23.4%	14.0%	149	-0.30	—	—	—
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	505	83
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	82
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	82
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	81
Jose Morban R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	18.7%	11.2%	2.7%	.333	3.98	16.9%	5.8%	61	-0.44	3.98	178	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	81
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	81
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	80
Alexander Cornielle R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	19	SW	4.01	24.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.329	4.37	19.2%	7.6%	312	+0.36	3.88	548	79
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	79
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	79
Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	18	SW	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.08	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.23	3.32	274	78
Domingo Pena R 2017 · 4.99 FIP	19	SP-	4.99	20.4%	8.3%	4.7%	.250	5.87	11.9%	2.8%	43	+0.88	3.34	165	78
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	77
Reynardo Cruz R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP-	3.96	22.5%	14.8%	1.6%	.264	5.44	16.1%	-2.1%	40	+1.48	3.96	216	77
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	77
Miguel Díaz R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP-	3.40	19.3%	7.7%	1.7%	.365	4.40	19.4%	8.2%	233	+1.00	2.18	573	76
Henson Leal R 2023 · 5.16 FIP	19	SP-	5.16	17.6%	10.0%	4.2%	.408	4.05	17.7%	7.8%	146	-1.11	3.49	193	76
Cristian Javier R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	19	SW	3.40	22.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.278	3.75	26.6%	13.2%	250	+0.35	2.69	954	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	48	24.7%	8.6%	1.07	4.06
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06