Cristian Javier
P
Houston Astros
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 1.0 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117107vR 98
ERA4.21
FIP4.29
K%20.6%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p5826.5%
K%
p1015.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.395
SL+0.7 (24%)
SI (4%)
CU (4%)
CH-0.5 (15%)
FB-3.5 (57%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 14 | 4 | 42 | 166 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 29% | 3.0 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 13.7% | 0.8% | 2.13 | 2.69 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 14 | 4 | 42 | 166 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 29% | 3.0 | 30.1% | 5.4% | 24.7% | 0.6% | 2.13 | 1.68 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 13 | 6 | 51 | 201 | 66 | 18 | 2 | 46% | 3.9 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 1.4% | 2.29 | 3.40 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 13 | 6 | 51 | 201 | 66 | 18 | 2 | 46% | 3.9 | 32.8% | 9.0% | 23.9% | 1.0% | 2.29 | 2.08 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 7 | 43 | 172 | 56 | 18 | 3 | 70% | 4.3 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 2.08 | 3.73 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 7 | 43 | 172 | 56 | 18 | 3 | 70% | 4.3 | 32.6% | 10.5% | 22.1% | 1.7% | 2.08 | 2.66 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 110 | 448 | 146 | 48 | 9 | 72% | 4.4 | 24.6% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 2.70 | 4.11 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 110 | 448 | 146 | 48 | 9 | 72% | 4.4 | 32.6% | 10.7% | 21.9% | 2.0% | 2.70 | 2.82 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 18 | 114 | 456 | 170 | 59 | 7 | 69% | 4.4 | 29.9% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 1.6% | 1.74 | 3.34 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 18 | 114 | 456 | 170 | 59 | 7 | 69% | 4.4 | 37.3% | 12.9% | 24.3% | 1.5% | 1.74 | 2.47 | — |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 12 | 10 | 54 | 214 | 54 | 18 | 11 | 83% | 4.5 | 25.2% | 8.4% | 16.8% | 4.8% | 3.48 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 12 | 10 | 54 | 214 | 54 | 18 | 11 | 83% | 4.5 | 25.2% | 8.4% | 16.8% | 5.1% | 3.48 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 36 | 9 | 101 | 424 | 130 | 52 | 16 | 25% | 2.8 | 30.7% | 12.3% | 18.4% | 3.6% | 3.55 | 4.02 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 36 | 9 | 101 | 424 | 130 | 52 | 16 | 25% | 2.8 | 30.7% | 12.3% | 18.4% | 3.8% | 3.55 | 4.13 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 30 | 25 | 149 | 585 | 194 | 52 | 17 | 83% | 5.0 | 33.2% | 8.9% | 24.3% | 2.7% | 2.54 | 2.93 | +4.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 30 | 25 | 149 | 585 | 194 | 52 | 17 | 83% | 5.0 | 33.2% | 8.9% | 24.3% | 2.9% | 2.54 | 3.03 | +4.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 162 | 687 | 159 | 62 | 25 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.17 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 162 | 687 | 159 | 62 | 25 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 4.56 | 4.29 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 8 | 38 | 166 | 30 | 21 | 4 | 100% | 4.8 | 18.0% | 12.7% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 4.26 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 8 | 38 | 166 | 30 | 21 | 4 | 100% | 4.8 | 18.1% | 12.7% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 4.26 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 13 | 51 | 221 | 49 | 30 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 1.8% | 4.76 | 3.47 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 13 | 51 | 221 | 49 | 30 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 8.6% | 1.4% | 4.76 | 3.71 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 11 | 9 | 33 | 151 | 32 | 23 | 5 | 82% | 3.0 | 19.2% | 14.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 6.82 | 5.31 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 98 | 425 | 88 | 52 | 13 | — | — | 20.8% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 5.09 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 80 | 338 | 88 | 52 | 13 | — | — | 26.1% | 15.5% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 6.21 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 83 | 352 | 67 | 42 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.1% | 12.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 78 | 328 | 67 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 59 | 36 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 5.19 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 67 | 42 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.1% | 12.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 67 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 59 | 36 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 5.19 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 185 | 149 | 851 | 3553 | 860 | 379 | 119 | 81% | 4.6 | 24.2% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 4.20 | 4.25 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 35 | 200 | 835 | 202 | 89 | 28 | 81% | 4.6 | 24.2% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 4.20 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 229 | 158 | 949 | 3891 | 1009 | 426 | 106 | 69% | 4.1 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 3.25 | 3.79 | +17.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 33 | 200 | 820 | 213 | 90 | 22 | 69% | 4.1 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 3.25 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cristian Javier (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.8% | — | 5.14 | 19.7% | 7.8% | 233 | +0.65 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 65 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 65 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .211 | 4.90 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.89 | 250 | 65 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 64 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 64 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 64 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 64 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 63 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 62 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 62 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.31 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .356 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.16 | 2.93 | 432 | 62 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 61 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 61 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 61 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.64 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.42 | 3.64 | 139 | 59 |
| Connor Schultz R 2024 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 59 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 59 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 59 |
| Luke Irvine R 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 58 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 80 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 1.22 | 4.88 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |