Cristian Javier — OGILVIE

Cristian Javier P Houston Astros

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.01

FIP4.11

K%21.9%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p8130.1%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

SL+0.7 (26%)

SI (1%)

CT (6%)

CU (2%)

CH-0.5 (16%)

FB-3.5 (49%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$0.9M
2027	Ext	$13M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$11M
Totals		$14M		$0.5M	-$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	14	4	42	166	50	9	1	29%	3.0	20.5%	6.8%	13.7%	0.8%	2.13	2.69	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	14	4	42	166	50	9	1	29%	3.0	30.1%	5.4%	24.7%	0.6%	2.13	1.68	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	13	6	51	201	66	18	2	46%	3.9	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	1.4%	2.29	3.40	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	13	6	51	201	66	18	2	46%	3.9	32.8%	9.0%	23.9%	1.0%	2.29	2.08	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	43	172	56	18	3	70%	4.3	23.2%	11.8%	11.4%	2.3%	2.08	3.87	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	7	43	172	56	18	3	70%	4.3	32.6%	10.5%	22.1%	1.7%	2.08	2.66	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	110	448	146	48	9	72%	4.4	24.6%	12.5%	12.1%	2.6%	2.70	4.05	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	110	448	146	48	9	72%	4.4	32.6%	10.7%	21.9%	2.0%	2.70	2.82	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	18	114	456	170	59	7	69%	4.4	29.9%	14.9%	15.0%	1.7%	1.74	3.38	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	18	114	456	170	59	7	69%	4.4	37.3%	12.9%	24.3%	1.5%	1.74	2.47	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	12	10	54	214	54	18	11	83%	4.5	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	5.3%	3.48	4.94	-0.0
2020	23	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	12	10	54	214	54	18	11	83%	4.5	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	5.1%	3.48	4.74	+0.1
2021	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	36	9	101	424	130	52	16	25%	2.8	30.7%	12.3%	18.4%	3.9%	3.55	4.19	+0.4
2021	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	36	9	101	424	130	52	16	25%	2.8	30.7%	12.3%	18.4%	3.8%	3.55	4.13	+0.5
2022	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	30	25	149	585	194	52	17	83%	5.0	33.2%	8.9%	24.3%	3.0%	2.54	3.07	+3.4
2022	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	30	25	149	585	194	52	17	83%	5.0	33.2%	8.9%	24.3%	2.9%	2.54	3.03	+3.5
2023	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	31	162	687	159	62	25	100%	5.2	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	3.7%	4.56	4.34	+1.1
2023	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	31	162	687	159	62	25	100%	5.2	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	3.7%	4.56	4.34	+1.1
2023	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	31	31	162	687	159	62	25	100%	5.2	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	3.6%	4.56	4.29	+1.2
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	38	166	30	21	4	100%	4.8	18.0%	12.7%	5.3%	2.7%	4.26	4.69	+0.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	38	166	30	21	4	100%	4.8	18.0%	12.7%	5.3%	2.7%	4.26	4.69	+0.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	38	166	30	21	4	100%	4.8	18.1%	12.7%	5.4%	2.4%	4.26	4.55	+0.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	13	51	221	49	30	3	100%	3.9	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	2.0%	4.76	3.56	+0.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	13	51	221	49	30	3	100%	3.9	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	2.0%	4.76	3.56	+0.8
2025	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	13	51	221	49	30	3	100%	3.9	22.2%	13.6%	8.6%	1.4%	4.76	3.71	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			139	100	594	2460	653	241	85	72%	4.3	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	3.5%	3.84	3.98	+6.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	20	15	73	315	75	31	11	75%	3.7	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.7%	5.15	4.39	+0.4
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	20	15	73	315	75	31	11	75%	3.7	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.7%	5.15	4.39	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	HOU	1	1	1	6	2	2	0	100%	0.7	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	4.51	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	HOU	4	4	17	66	18	6	2	100%	4.2	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	3.0%	3.18	3.61	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	HOU	15	10	56	243	55	23	9	67%	3.7	22.6%	9.5%	13.2%	3.7%	5.50	4.42	+0.3
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	HOU	15	10	56	243	55	23	9	67%	3.7	22.6%	9.5%	13.2%	3.7%	5.50	4.42	+0.3
ROS	29	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	7	32	7	3	1	100%	7.5	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	3.0%	4.01	4.11	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	HOU	1	1	7	30	6	3	1	100%	7.0	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.9%	3.96	4.06	+0.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	81	347	82	34	12	—	—	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.4%	5.05	4.36	+0.4
FULL	29	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	63	267	82	34	12	—	—	30.7%	12.8%	17.9%	4.5%	6.46	4.58	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	83	352	74	36	12	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.3%	4.70	4.82	+0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	78	328	73	32	12	100%	6.0	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.6%	4.75	4.78	+0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	72	304	65	31	12	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	3.8%	4.92	5.04	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	83	350	74	35	11	100%	5.9	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.3%	4.65	4.77	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	78	329	73	32	11	100%	6.0	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.5%	4.70	4.73	+0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	72	304	65	31	11	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	3.7%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		179	140	834	3475	872	342	120	78%	4.7	25.1%	9.8%	15.3%	3.5%	4.09	4.12	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	34	200	833	209	82	29	78%	4.7	25.1%	9.8%	15.3%	3.5%	4.09	4.12	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		238	164	989	4055	1051	433	119	69%	4.2	25.9%	10.7%	15.2%	2.9%	3.28	3.87	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	33	200	820	213	88	24	69%	4.2	25.9%	10.7%	15.2%	2.9%	3.28	3.87	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristian Javier (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	21.0%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.87	21.6%	11.6%	233	+0.31	—	—	—
Trevor Cahill R 2017 · 5.13 FIP	29	SP-	5.13	22.8%	11.5%	4.5%	.321	4.36	21.3%	11.7%	251	-0.77	3.37	556	73
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	432	70
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	67
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	65
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	64
Mat Latos R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	29	SP	5.66	16.8%	11.2%	4.7%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	244	64
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	64
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	63
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	63
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	63
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	62
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	61
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	61
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	61
James Kaprielian R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	20.4%	10.7%	3.5%	.310	6.82	13.7%	1.1%	49	+2.14	2.80	446	61
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	61
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	61
Tyler Cloyd R 2016 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	17.6%	12.4%	1.3%	.211	4.86	16.9%	9.7%	230	+0.97	3.89	250	60
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	355	60
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	80	21.4%	10.0%	1.31	4.70
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50