Cristian Javier — OGILVIE

Cristian Javier P Houston Astros

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs MLB peak 1.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117107vR 98

ERA4.21

FIP4.29

K%20.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p1015.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.395

SL+0.7 (24%)

SI (4%)

CU (4%)

CH-0.5 (15%)

FB-3.5 (57%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	14	4	42	166	50	9	1	29%	3.0	20.5%	6.8%	13.7%	0.8%	2.13	2.69	—
2015	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	14	4	42	166	50	9	1	29%	3.0	30.1%	5.4%	24.7%	0.6%	2.13	1.68	—
2016	19	ROK	Greeneville Astros	13	6	51	201	66	18	2	46%	3.9	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	1.4%	2.29	3.40	—
2016	19	ROK	Greeneville Astros	13	6	51	201	66	18	2	46%	3.9	32.8%	9.0%	23.9%	1.0%	2.29	2.08	—
2017	20	MIX	2 levels	10	7	43	172	56	18	3	70%	4.3	23.2%	11.8%	11.4%	2.0%	2.08	3.73	—
2017	20	MIX	2 levels	10	7	43	172	56	18	3	70%	4.3	32.6%	10.5%	22.1%	1.7%	2.08	2.66	—
2018	21	MIX	2 levels	25	18	110	448	146	48	9	72%	4.4	24.6%	12.5%	12.1%	2.7%	2.70	4.11	—
2018	21	MIX	2 levels	25	18	110	448	146	48	9	72%	4.4	32.6%	10.7%	21.9%	2.0%	2.70	2.82	—
2019	22	MIX	3 levels	26	18	114	456	170	59	7	69%	4.4	29.9%	14.9%	15.0%	1.6%	1.74	3.34	—
2019	22	MIX	3 levels	26	18	114	456	170	59	7	69%	4.4	37.3%	12.9%	24.3%	1.5%	1.74	2.47	—
2020	23	MLB	Houston Astros	12	10	54	214	54	18	11	83%	4.5	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	4.8%	3.48	4.70	-0.1
2020	23	MLB	Houston Astros	12	10	54	214	54	18	11	83%	4.5	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	5.1%	3.48	4.74	-0.1
2021	24	MLB	Houston Astros	36	9	101	424	130	52	16	25%	2.8	30.7%	12.3%	18.4%	3.6%	3.55	4.02	+1.6
2021	24	MLB	Houston Astros	36	9	101	424	130	52	16	25%	2.8	30.7%	12.3%	18.4%	3.8%	3.55	4.13	+1.5
2022	25	MLB	Houston Astros	30	25	149	585	194	52	17	83%	5.0	33.2%	8.9%	24.3%	2.7%	2.54	2.93	+4.3
2022	25	MLB	Houston Astros	30	25	149	585	194	52	17	83%	5.0	33.2%	8.9%	24.3%	2.9%	2.54	3.03	+4.1
2023	26	MLB	Houston Astros	31	31	162	687	159	62	25	100%	5.2	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	3.4%	4.56	4.17	+2.3
2023	26	MLB	Houston Astros	31	31	162	687	159	62	25	100%	5.2	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	3.6%	4.56	4.29	+2.1
2024	27	MIX	2 levels	8	8	38	166	30	21	4	100%	4.8	18.0%	12.7%	5.3%	2.5%	4.26	4.57	-0.0
2024	27	MIX	2 levels	8	8	38	166	30	21	4	100%	4.8	18.1%	12.7%	5.4%	2.4%	4.26	4.55	+0.0
2025	28	MIX	4 levels	13	13	51	221	49	30	3	100%	3.9	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	1.8%	4.76	3.47	+0.6
2025	28	MIX	4 levels	13	13	51	221	49	30	3	100%	3.9	22.2%	13.6%	8.6%	1.4%	4.76	3.71	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	Houston Astros	11	9	33	151	32	23	5	82%	3.0	19.2%	14.7%	4.5%	3.6%	6.82	5.31	-0.3
ROS	29	MLB	HOU	11	11	65	274	56	29	8	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.8%	9.8%	2.8%	4.21	4.29	+0.3
ROS	29	MLB	HOU	11	11	65	274	56	30	8	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.8%	9.8%	2.8%	4.21	4.29	+0.3
2026 TOT	29	MLB	HOU	—	—	98	425	88	52	13	—	—	20.8%	12.4%	8.4%	3.0%	5.09	4.63	+0.8
2026 FULL	29	MLB	HOU	—	—	80	338	88	52	13	—	—	26.1%	15.5%	10.6%	3.8%	6.21	4.94	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	HOU	14	14	83	352	67	42	11	100%	6.0	19.1%	12.0%	7.1%	3.1%	4.97	5.09	-0.0
2028	31	MLB	HOU	13	13	78	328	67	38	11	100%	6.0	20.3%	11.6%	8.8%	3.3%	5.02	5.05	-0.1
2029	32	MLB	HOU	12	12	72	304	59	36	11	100%	6.0	19.6%	11.9%	7.6%	3.6%	5.19	5.30	-0.4
2030	33	MLB	HOU	11	11	66	279	52	35	11	100%	6.0	18.7%	12.4%	6.3%	3.8%	5.42	5.58	-0.7
2027	30	MLB	HOU	14	14	83	350	67	42	11	100%	5.9	19.1%	12.0%	7.1%	3.1%	4.97	5.09	-0.0
2028	31	MLB	HOU	13	13	78	329	67	38	11	100%	6.0	20.3%	11.6%	8.8%	3.3%	5.02	5.05	-0.1
2029	32	MLB	HOU	12	12	72	304	59	36	11	100%	6.0	19.6%	11.9%	7.6%	3.6%	5.19	5.30	-0.4
2030	33	MLB	HOU	11	11	66	279	52	35	11	100%	6.0	18.7%	12.4%	6.3%	3.8%	5.42	5.58	-0.7
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			196	160	917	3832	912	413	130	82%	4.7	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	3.4%	4.29	4.32	+11.6
/ 200 IP	—			43	35	200	836	199	90	28	82%	4.7	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	3.4%	4.29	4.32	+2.5
Career	—			229	158	949	3891	1009	426	106	69%	4.1	25.9%	11.0%	15.0%	2.7%	3.25	3.79	+17.9
/ 200 IP	—			48	33	200	820	213	90	22	69%	4.1	25.9%	11.0%	15.0%	2.7%	3.25	3.79	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristian Javier (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	21.0%	10.1%	2.8%	—	5.14	19.7%	7.8%	233	+0.65	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	65
Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP	32	SP	5.00	15.0%	8.3%	3.8%	.314	3.41	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.59	3.41	144	65
Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	17.6%	12.4%	1.3%	.211	4.90	16.9%	9.7%	230	+1.01	3.89	250	65
Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP	29	SP-	5.10	22.8%	11.5%	4.5%	.321	4.41	21.3%	11.7%	251	-0.69	3.33	556	64
Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	30	SP-	4.06	18.2%	10.5%	2.1%	.307	3.76	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.30	3.51	269	64
Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	30	SP	4.86	17.5%	11.8%	3.2%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	133	64
Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP-	4.21	17.6%	8.1%	2.9%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	250	64
Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP	28	SP	3.93	22.5%	12.0%	2.2%	.304	5.94	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.01	3.91	223	63
Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.16	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.39	4.66	261	62
Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP	30	SP-	4.90	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.88	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.02	4.83	294	62
Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	29	SP-	3.31	23.6%	9.1%	1.9%	.356	3.47	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.16	2.93	432	62
Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP	29	SP-	4.76	17.2%	16.0%	2.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	138	61
Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP-	4.12	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.05	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.07	4.05	165	61
Clayton Mortensen R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	15.0%	12.6%	1.6%	.289	4.40	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.10	4.23	221	61
Lucas Harrell R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	31	SP	4.06	15.7%	12.9%	1.2%	.310	3.64	16.2%	5.7%	30	-0.42	3.64	139	59
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	27	SP	4.85	21.5%	10.9%	4.0%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	171	59
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	29	SP-	3.84	17.3%	10.9%	1.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	272	59
Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	17.8%	5.8%	2.9%	.312	5.48	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.53	3.95	133	59
Luke Irvine R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	27	SP-	4.17	13.4%	9.8%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	104	58
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2028 · 4.68 FIP	31	SP-	4.68	8.9%	6.6%	2.7%	.346	4.95	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.27	4.68	104	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5	78	19.8%	11.5%	1.27	4.97
Jorge De La Rosa ('18)	4	98	19.5%	10.3%	1.22	4.52
Adam Conley ('19)	5	83	19.7%	9.5%	1.17	4.82
Roansy Contreras ('24)	3	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Travis Wood ('17)	3	85	20.8%	9.8%	1.34	4.72
José Ruiz ('24)	5	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Trevor Cahill ('21)	7	67	21.3%	10.1%	1.29	4.66