Cristian Javier
P
Houston Astros
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP8.04
SIERA7.55
K%21.8%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.0%
IP95
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD3535
K†5050
FB Velo
p2792.9
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p4721.7%
xwOBA vs
p770.286
SL+0.7 (25%)
SI (7%)
CU (5%)
CH-0.5 (15%)
FB-3.5 (55%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 14 | 4 | 42 | 166 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 0.8% | 2.13 | 2.69 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 13 | 6 | 51 | 201 | 66 | 18 | 2 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.4% | 2.29 | 3.40 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | 10 | 7 | 43 | 172 | 56 | 18 | 3 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.2% | 2.08 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | 25 | 18 | 110 | 448 | 146 | 48 | 9 | 24.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 2.70 | 4.07 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 22 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 26 | 18 | 114 | 456 | 170 | 59 | 7 | 29.9% | 14.9% | 1.7% | 1.74 | 3.37 | +2.5 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 12 | 10 | 54 | 214 | 54 | 18 | 11 | 25.2% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.48 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 36 | 9 | 101 | 424 | 130 | 52 | 16 | 30.7% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 3.55 | 4.07 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 30 | 25 | 149 | 585 | 194 | 52 | 17 | 33.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 2.54 | 2.98 | +3.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 162 | 687 | 159 | 62 | 25 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 4.56 | 4.43 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 8 | 8 | 38 | 166 | 30 | 21 | 4 | 18.0% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 13 | 13 | 51 | 221 | 49 | 30 | 3 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 4.76 | 3.57 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 3 | 3 | 9 | 48 | 4 | 9 | 2 | — | — | — | 12.54 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 17 | — | 17 | 73 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 27 | 121 | 19 | 16 | 4 | 15.9% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 7.29 | 2.95 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 67 | 34 | 10 | 19.9% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.77 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 59 | 31 | 9 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.88 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 51 | 28 | 9 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 43 | 26 | 8 | 18.0% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 5.05 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 37 | 23 | 7 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 5.18 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 31 | 21 | 7 | 16.6% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 5.32 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 26 | 18 | 6 | 15.8% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.47 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 221 | 152 | 925 | 3788 | 984 | 413 | 108 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 3.22 | 3.86 | +15.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 33 | 200 | 819 | 213 | 89 | 23 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 3.22 | 3.86 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cristian Javier (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.87 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 216 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 74 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 71 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 69 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.49 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 187 | 69 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 68 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.85 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.65 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.20 | 3.23 | 171 | 68 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 68 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.03 | 11.6% | 8.4% | 1.5% | .302 | 4.25 | 15.6% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.22 | 3.73 | 164 | 68 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 68 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 68 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 68 |
| Collin Balester R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.20 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -1.03 | 3.20 | 116 | 68 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.38 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 101 | 68 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 3.68 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.38 | 3.02 | 258 | 68 |
| Jose Casilla R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.65 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 104 | 68 |
| Adrian Garza R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .351 | 5.10 | 9.7% | 4.1% | 113 | +0.66 | 3.95 | 229 | 68 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 67 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 67 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.