Samuel Ortiz

P DSL Phillies

Age 18 LHP ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	17	ROKPHI	11	11	37	2.68	3.64	23.6%	11.5%	—	K 16.1% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.12
2027PROJ	18	MLBPHI	4	4	22	5.04	5.04	20.7%	13.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	19	MLBPHI	3	3	17	4.85	4.78	21.4%	11.8%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsEthan Lindow (age 18) · Jeremy Gonzalez (age 18) · Jordan Woods (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%20.7%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies	11	11	37	148	35	17	3	100%	3.4	16.1%	14.4%	1.7%	2.8%	2.68	5.12	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies	11	11	37	148	35	17	3	100%	3.4	16.1%	14.4%	1.7%	2.8%	2.68	5.12	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies	11	11	37	148	35	17	3	100%	3.4	23.6%	11.5%	12.2%	2.0%	2.68	3.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	18	MLB	PHI	4	4	22	93	19	12	3	100%	5.5	20.7%	13.1%	7.6%	3.0%	5.04	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	PHI	6	6	35	148	32	17	4	100%	5.8	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	2.9%	4.85	4.78	+0.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	17	72	15	8	2	100%	5.7	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	2.9%	4.85	4.78	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	17	73	16	9	2	100%	4.3	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	2.9%	4.85	4.40	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	186	105	23	100%	4.3	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	2.9%	4.85	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		11	11	37	148	24	21	4	100%	3.4	16.1%	14.4%	1.7%	2.8%	2.68	5.12	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	59	200	800	129	115	23	100%	3.4	16.1%	14.4%	1.7%	2.8%	2.68	5.12	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Ortiz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	20.7%	13.1%	3.0%	—	4.78	21.4%	9.6%	35	-0.26	—	—	—
Ethan Lindow L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	18	SP	4.33	19.1%	12.4%	2.3%	.329	2.95	19.8%	14.0%	111	-1.38	2.95	435	91
Jeremy Gonzalez L 2023 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	19.6%	10.6%	2.2%	.290	4.53	14.4%	-1.1%	83	+0.51	3.39	148	87
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	83
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	83
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	82
Robinson Ortiz L 2018 · 3.85 FIP	18	SP-	3.85	21.0%	11.0%	2.1%	.312	5.36	15.2%	0.6%	98	+1.51	2.29	276	82
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	82
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	4.98	17.7%	3.9%	349	+0.73	4.25	374	82
Jesus Gomez L 2019 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP	5.12	19.3%	12.4%	3.8%	.275	4.40	24.3%	9.8%	23	-0.72	4.22	121	81
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	80
Miguel Flores L 2024 · 4.30 FIP	19	SP	4.30	21.2%	16.5%	1.6%	.294	4.90	17.4%	-0.3%	127	+0.60	4.30	173	78
Dax Fulton L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	18.6%	13.2%	2.3%	.311	3.78	22.8%	12.3%	151	-0.70	3.52	421	77
Cleiverth Perez L 2018 · 3.94 FIP	18	SP	3.94	15.8%	11.7%	1.2%	.315	3.93	10.0%	3.6%	41	-0.01	3.81	256	76
Roberto Medina L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	18	SP	4.85	21.6%	21.7%	1.5%	.313	5.67	16.4%	-2.1%	73	+0.82	3.87	109	76
Eduar Gonzalez L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	18	SP	3.89	16.6%	10.8%	1.5%	.333	4.60	12.9%	1.7%	40	+0.71	3.89	124	75
Kris Bubic L 2018 · 3.97 FIP	20	SP	3.97	21.0%	13.8%	1.6%	.367	3.99	22.5%	13.0%	329	+0.02	2.13	755	75
Melkis Hernández L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	18	SP	4.18	16.4%	13.0%	1.5%	.291	4.24	18.5%	3.2%	257	+0.06	3.78	334	75
Wander Cabrera L 2016 · 3.98 FIP	18	SP	3.98	16.9%	12.7%	1.3%	.281	6.97	11.9%	-4.8%	41	+2.99	3.64	135	75
Ryan Rolison L 2018 · 3.88 FIP	21	SP	3.88	21.2%	9.2%	2.6%	.200	4.41	19.1%	11.5%	191	+0.53	3.81	390	75
Luis De Avila L 2018 · 4.50 FIP	17	SP	4.50	13.6%	11.1%	2.1%	.309	3.51	17.9%	10.2%	52	-0.99	3.51	434	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	21.1%	12.3%	1.14	4.92
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76