Luis De Avila
P
Mississippi Braves
Age 25
LHP
5'9" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 74 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104113vR 122
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
K%19.9%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%9.3%
ROS IP75
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 8 | 7 | 31 | 135 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 88% | 3.8 | 13.6% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 6.16 | 4.50 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 8 | 7 | 31 | 135 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 88% | 3.8 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 1.5% | 6.16 | 3.36 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 58 | 271 | 64 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 2.1 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 1.4% | 4.99 | 3.36 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 58 | 271 | 64 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 2.1 | 23.6% | 7.7% | 15.9% | 1.5% | 4.99 | 2.87 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Rome Braves | 24 | 24 | 126 | 533 | 129 | 45 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 4.41 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Rome Braves | 24 | 24 | 126 | 533 | 129 | 45 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.2% | 8.4% | 15.8% | 2.1% | 3.49 | 3.26 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 127 | 542 | 128 | 65 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.4% | 12.9% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 3.26 | 4.81 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 127 | 542 | 128 | 65 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 1.5% | 3.26 | 3.44 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 19 | 19 | 101 | 438 | 79 | 46 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 14.6% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 3.74 | 3.70 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 19 | 19 | 101 | 438 | 79 | 46 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 0.5% | 3.74 | 3.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 75 | 315 | 63 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 75 | 315 | 65 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 74 | 310 | 64 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 41 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 13 | 79 | 335 | 69 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.11 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 88 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 104 | 76 | 443 | 1919 | 336 | 208 | 43 | 73% | 4.3 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 4.22 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 867 | 152 | 94 | 19 | 73% | 4.3 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis De Avila (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 2.5% | — | 4.49 | 20.6% | 10.3% | 148 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 82 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 82 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 81 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 81 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 80 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 80 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.72 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.27 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 345 | +0.55 | 3.72 | 463 | 78 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | 5.90 | 28.8% | 13.9% | 13 | +2.06 | 3.84 | 249 | 78 |
| Zach Thornton L 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 77 |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 77 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .290 | 6.22 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 13 | +1.53 | 3.89 | 176 | 77 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.54 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | 4.08 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 45 | -0.46 | 3.65 | 328 | 77 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.67 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 1.6% | .355 | 5.01 | 14.7% | 3.6% | 93 | +1.34 | 3.10 | 381 | 76 |
| Grant Watson L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 180 | 76 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 75 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 75 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 75 |
| Nick Additon L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.62 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.84 | 3.06 | 217 | 75 |
| Eric Wooten L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 75 |
| Matt Portland L 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 143 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 74 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.01 | 4.51 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |