Luis De Avila — OGILVIE

Luis De Avila P Mississippi Braves

Age 25 LHP 5'9" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%17.1%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%5.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	8	7	31	135	27	12	2	88%	3.8	13.6%	11.1%	2.5%	2.1%	6.16	4.50	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	8	7	31	135	27	12	2	88%	3.8	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	1.5%	6.16	3.36	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	58	271	64	21	4	0%	2.1	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	1.7%	4.99	3.51	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	58	271	64	21	4	0%	2.1	23.6%	7.7%	15.9%	1.5%	4.99	2.87	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	24	24	126	533	129	45	11	100%	5.3	18.6%	9.7%	8.9%	2.8%	3.49	4.28	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	24	24	126	533	129	45	11	100%	5.3	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	2.1%	3.49	3.26	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	127	542	128	65	8	100%	4.9	19.4%	12.9%	6.6%	2.3%	3.26	4.37	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	127	542	128	65	8	100%	4.9	19.4%	12.9%	6.6%	2.3%	3.26	4.37	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	127	542	128	65	8	100%	4.9	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	1.5%	3.26	3.44	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	19	19	101	438	79	46	2	100%	5.3	14.6%	11.6%	3.1%	0.6%	3.74	3.66	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	19	19	101	438	79	46	2	100%	5.3	14.6%	11.6%	3.1%	0.6%	3.74	3.66	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	19	19	101	438	79	46	2	100%	5.3	18.0%	10.5%	7.5%	0.5%	3.74	3.16	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	ATL	1	1	6	25	4	3	1	100%	6.0	17.1%	11.6%	5.6%	2.5%	4.85	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	91	384	71	43	10	100%	6.1	18.4%	11.1%	7.3%	2.5%	4.75	4.72	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	90	378	71	41	10	100%	6.0	18.7%	10.9%	7.7%	2.6%	4.71	4.72	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	87	366	69	40	10	100%	6.2	18.7%	10.9%	7.8%	2.7%	4.74	4.78	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	83	350	65	39	10	100%	5.9	18.6%	11.1%	7.5%	2.9%	4.83	4.90	0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	78	329	66	35	10	100%	6.0	20.2%	10.6%	9.6%	3.1%	4.81	4.80	+0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	73	307	61	34	10	100%	6.0	19.8%	10.9%	8.9%	3.3%	4.93	5.01	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	40	169	31	19	4	100%	5.7	18.4%	11.1%	7.3%	2.5%	4.75	4.72	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	57	241	45	26	6	100%	5.7	18.7%	10.9%	7.7%	2.6%	4.71	4.72	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	66	279	52	30	8	100%	6.0	18.7%	10.9%	7.8%	2.7%	4.74	4.78	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	68	287	53	32	8	100%	6.2	18.6%	11.1%	7.5%	2.9%	4.83	4.90	0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	67	283	57	30	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	10.6%	9.6%	3.1%	4.81	4.80	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	64	270	54	30	9	100%	5.8	19.8%	10.9%	8.9%	3.3%	4.93	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	361	1525	292	167	44	100%	6.0	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	2.9%	4.80	4.45	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	92	24	100%	6.0	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	2.9%	4.80	4.45	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		104	76	443	1919	336	208	38	73%	4.3	17.5%	10.8%	6.6%	2.0%	3.86	4.07	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	34	200	867	152	94	17	73%	4.3	17.5%	10.8%	6.6%	2.0%	3.86	4.07	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis De Avila (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	17.1%	11.6%	2.5%	—	4.74	18.6%	7.6%	267	-0.11	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	87
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	85
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	85
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	84
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	83
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	83
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	83
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	82
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	82
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	81
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	81
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	80
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	80
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	80
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	79
Pat Peterson L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	13.5%	10.6%	1.6%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	108	78
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	77
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	77
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	76
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	82	18.8%	11.0%	1.08	4.80
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78