Luis De Avila
P
Mississippi Braves
+1.0
WAR
Age 25
LHP
5'9" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2028
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.8%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%9.3%
IP107
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 8 | 7 | 31 | 135 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 13.6% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 6.16 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 27 | 0 | 58 | 271 | 64 | 21 | 4 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | 4.99 | 3.55 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Rome Braves | 24 | 24 | 126 | 533 | 129 | 45 | 11 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 3.49 | 4.25 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 22 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 26 | 26 | 127 | 542 | 128 | 65 | 8 | 19.4% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 3.26 | 4.42 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 19 | 19 | 101 | 438 | 79 | 46 | 2 | 14.6% | 11.6% | 0.6% | 3.74 | 3.65 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 107 | 450 | 89 | 47 | 11 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 98 | 49 | 12 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.45 | 4.43 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 21 | 117 | 493 | 101 | 50 | 13 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 102 | 49 | 13 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.44 | 4.45 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 99 | 48 | 13 | 20.5% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 95 | 47 | 13 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.55 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 107 | 452 | 91 | 46 | 13 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 86 | 45 | 13 | 19.8% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 81 | 44 | 12 | 19.5% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 75 | 42 | 12 | 19.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 371 | 69 | 41 | 12 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.04 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 63 | 39 | 11 | 18.3% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 76 | 443 | 1919 | 336 | 208 | 38 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 3.86 | 4.08 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 867 | 152 | 94 | 17 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 3.86 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis De Avila (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 2.5% | — | 4.44 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 347 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 89 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 88 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 87 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 86 |
| Marco Tovar L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 86 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 86 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 86 |
| Matt Lujan L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 85 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 85 |
| Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 85 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 85 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.61 | 16.2% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .266 | 6.15 | 11.5% | -1.2% | 56 | +2.54 | 3.61 | 145 | 84 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 84 |
| Sam Garcia L 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 84 |
| Daniel Camarena L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .338 | 4.72 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 187 | +0.40 | 3.76 | 674 | 84 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 84 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 84 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 236 | 83 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2023 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 83 |
| Jack Choate L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $9M | $33M | +$24M | ||