Melkis Hernández

Melkis Hernández P Lake County Captains

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.8 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117125vR 133

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%17.1%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%3.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Blue	12	11	33	166	33	38	1	92%	2.8	13.5%	28.6%	-15.1%	0.7%	5.94	5.99	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Blue	12	11	33	166	33	38	1	92%	2.8	19.9%	22.9%	-3.0%	0.6%	5.94	4.93	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	10	10	44	182	44	19	2	100%	4.4	16.4%	13.0%	3.4%	1.5%	3.71	4.18	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	10	10	44	182	44	19	2	100%	4.4	16.4%	13.0%	3.4%	1.5%	3.71	4.18	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Blue	10	10	44	182	44	19	2	100%	4.4	24.2%	10.4%	13.7%	1.1%	3.71	2.99	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	60	266	68	27	2	44%	3.4	17.8%	12.3%	5.6%	1.2%	4.18	3.78	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	60	266	68	27	2	44%	3.4	17.8%	12.3%	5.6%	1.2%	4.18	3.78	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	8	60	266	68	27	2	44%	3.4	25.6%	10.2%	15.4%	0.8%	4.18	2.62	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	21	114	472	116	51	7	84%	4.5	18.2%	12.8%	5.4%	1.6%	3.64	4.07	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	21	114	472	116	51	7	84%	4.5	18.2%	12.8%	5.4%	1.6%	3.64	4.07	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	21	114	472	116	51	7	84%	4.5	24.6%	10.8%	13.8%	1.5%	3.64	3.21	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	30	6	83	412	103	75	4	20%	2.8	19.2%	20.9%	-1.7%	1.2%	4.54	4.79	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	30	6	83	412	103	75	4	20%	2.8	19.2%	20.9%	-1.7%	1.2%	4.54	4.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	CLE	30	6	83	412	103	75	4	20%	2.8	25.0%	18.2%	6.8%	1.0%	4.54	3.83	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	CLE	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	17.1%	14.1%	3.1%	2.7%	5.28	5.28	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	89	437	107	78	5	—	—	24.6%	18.0%	6.6%	1.1%	4.58	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	107	453	84	56	12	100%	6.7	18.6%	12.4%	6.2%	2.6%	5.03	4.93	-0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	111	470	92	53	12	100%	6.6	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	2.6%	4.81	4.70	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	114	482	97	52	13	100%	6.7	20.2%	10.8%	9.5%	2.6%	4.66	4.56	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	116	488	101	51	13	100%	6.8	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	2.6%	4.55	4.48	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	116	488	102	51	13	100%	6.8	20.8%	10.4%	10.5%	2.6%	4.50	4.46	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	114	481	100	50	13	100%	6.7	20.8%	10.5%	10.4%	2.6%	4.50	4.50	+0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	110	467	97	50	13	100%	6.9	20.7%	10.6%	10.1%	2.8%	4.55	4.58	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	106	445	91	48	13	100%	6.6	20.5%	10.8%	9.6%	2.9%	4.65	4.72	+0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	99	419	84	47	13	100%	6.6	20.1%	11.1%	9.0%	3.1%	4.80	4.89	+0.0
2036	31	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	92	391	77	45	13	100%	6.6	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	3.3%	4.98	5.10	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	53	224	42	28	6	100%	6.6	18.6%	12.4%	6.2%	2.6%	5.03	4.93	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	81	342	67	39	9	100%	6.8	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	2.6%	4.81	4.70	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	95	401	81	43	10	100%	6.8	20.2%	10.8%	9.5%	2.6%	4.66	4.56	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	102	431	89	45	11	100%	6.8	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	2.6%	4.55	4.48	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	106	448	93	46	12	100%	6.6	20.8%	10.4%	10.5%	2.6%	4.50	4.46	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	106	448	93	47	12	100%	6.6	20.8%	10.5%	10.4%	2.6%	4.50	4.50	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	103	435	90	46	12	100%	6.9	20.7%	10.6%	10.1%	2.7%	4.55	4.58	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	100	422	86	46	12	100%	6.7	20.5%	10.8%	9.6%	2.9%	4.65	4.72	+0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	94	397	80	44	12	100%	6.7	20.1%	11.1%	9.0%	3.1%	4.80	4.89	+0.0
2036	31	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	88	372	73	43	12	100%	6.8	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	3.3%	4.98	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		138	138	928	3919	795	427	109	100%	6.7	20.3%	10.9%	9.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.29	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	171	92	23	100%	6.7	20.3%	10.9%	9.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		95	56	334	1498	265	250	20	59%	3.5	17.7%	16.7%	1.0%	1.3%	4.20	4.45	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	33	200	896	158	150	12	59%	3.5	17.7%	16.7%	1.0%	1.3%	4.20	4.45	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melkis Hernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	17.1%	14.1%	2.7%	—	4.73	19.5%	8.0%	333	-0.55	—	—	—
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	92
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	91
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	85
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	83
Sam Clay L 2015 · 4.18 FIP	22	SW	4.18	15.9%	14.1%	1.1%	.330	3.69	17.9%	3.0%	232	-0.49	2.50	514	83
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	82
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	82
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	81
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	81
Travis Seabrooke L 2017 · 4.85 FIP	21	SP-	4.85	12.0%	14.1%	1.8%	.309	4.77	14.7%	3.7%	97	-0.08	3.99	198	81
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	81
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	80
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	80
Austin Davis L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SW	4.83	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.259	2.97	23.3%	15.8%	151	-1.86	2.19	486	80
Ramon Perez L 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	14.6%	12.3%	1.3%	.315	4.33	23.0%	6.2%	92	+0.18	3.08	199	79
Alex Winkelman L 2016 · 4.44 FIP	22	SW	4.44	15.8%	14.7%	1.5%	.344	3.77	18.8%	6.5%	181	-0.67	3.40	246	79
Rolando Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	12.8%	10.9%	2.2%	.286	3.80	16.2%	-0.1%	18	-0.79	3.53	113	78
Brandon Finnegan L 2015 · 4.48 FIP	22	SW	4.48	21.3%	12.8%	2.8%	.287	5.01	18.5%	6.5%	273	+0.53	3.86	489	78
Luis De Paula L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	23	SW	4.35	14.8%	14.2%	1.3%	.285	5.37	16.4%	0.2%	47	+1.02	4.35	125	78
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	106	20.0%	11.2%	1.07	4.73
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25