Melkis Hernández

Melkis Hernández P Lake County Captains

+0.6 WAR

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.8 · 2030

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.0%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.1%

IP114

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.8peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL CLE Blue	12	11	33	166	33	38	1	13.5%	28.6%	0.7%	5.94	5.95	-0.4
2023	18	ROK	DSL Guardians Blue	10	10	44	182	44	19	2	16.4%	13.0%	1.5%	3.71	4.16	+0.4
2024	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	18	8	60	266	68	27	2	17.8%	12.3%	1.2%	4.18	3.81	+0.8
2025	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	21	114	472	116	51	7	18.2%	12.8%	1.7%	3.64	4.09	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Lake County Captains	3	0	11	55	9	12	1	12.6%	25.1%	2.3%	3.27	6.46	-0.2
ROS	21	MLB	CLE	21	21	114	480	101	52	13	21.0%	10.9%	2.7%	4.55	4.55	+1.0
2026 Total	21	MLB	CLE	—	—	125	535	110	64	14	20.5%	12.0%	2.6%	4.44	4.72	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	CLE	26	26	141	597	131	59	16	22.0%	9.8%	2.6%	4.39	4.31	+1.6
2028	23	MLB	CLE	30	30	167	704	160	64	18	22.7%	9.1%	2.6%	4.25	4.16	+2.2
2029	24	MLB	CLE	34	34	187	789	183	69	21	23.2%	8.7%	2.6%	4.14	4.06	+2.6
2030	25	MLB	CLE	34	34	189	799	188	68	21	23.6%	8.6%	2.6%	4.06	4.00	+2.8
2031	26	MLB	CLE	34	34	189	799	190	68	21	23.8%	8.5%	2.6%	4.01	3.98	+2.8
2032	27	MLB	CLE	34	34	188	793	189	68	21	23.8%	8.5%	2.6%	4.00	3.99	+2.8
2033	28	MLB	CLE	34	34	185	781	186	67	21	23.8%	8.6%	2.7%	4.01	4.02	+2.7
2034	29	MLB	CLE	33	33	181	763	180	66	21	23.6%	8.7%	2.7%	4.04	4.06	+2.5
2035	30	MLB	CLE	32	32	175	741	174	65	20	23.4%	8.8%	2.8%	4.09	4.12	+2.3
2036	31	MLB	CLE	31	31	169	715	166	63	20	23.2%	8.9%	2.8%	4.15	4.20	+2.1
2037	32	MLB	CLE	30	30	162	686	157	62	20	22.9%	9.0%	2.9%	4.23	4.28	+1.9
2038	33	MLB	CLE	28	28	155	655	148	60	20	22.6%	9.2%	3.0%	4.32	4.38	+1.6
2039	34	MLB	CLE	27	27	147	622	139	59	19	22.3%	9.4%	3.1%	4.42	4.49	+1.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			68	50	262	1141	193	178	16	16.9%	15.6%	1.4%	4.05	4.42	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—			52	38	200	871	147	136	12	16.9%	15.6%	1.4%	4.05	4.42	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melkis Hernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	21.0%	10.9%	2.7%	—	4.17	22.7%	13.5%	495	-0.38	—	—	—
Keegan Akin L 2027 · 4.63 FIP	22	SP-	4.63	20.2%	12.5%	3.0%	.303	4.26	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.37	2.56	718	93
Dylan Carmouche L 2027 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP-	4.37	19.0%	11.6%	2.6%	.332	4.38	17.4%	9.6%	70	+0.01	4.37	192	92
Brett Adcock L 2026 · 4.06 FIP	21	SP-	4.06	19.7%	10.0%	2.5%	.294	4.61	17.2%	2.8%	193	+0.55	4.02	301	91
Connor O'Halloran L 2026 · 5.08 FIP	21	SP-	5.08	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	5.08	104	90
Andrew Faulkner L 2027 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP-	4.76	18.0%	12.8%	2.9%	.290	4.07	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.69	3.72	252	90
Brandon Finnegan L 2027 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	21.3%	12.8%	2.9%	.287	5.02	18.5%	6.5%	273	+0.52	3.85	489	90
Jackson Ferris L 2026 · 4.21 FIP	21	SP-	4.21	19.6%	13.0%	2.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	309	89
Luis Rico L 2026 · 4.51 FIP	21	SP-	4.51	17.2%	13.0%	2.2%	.303	4.99	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.48	4.26	199	89
Max Fried L 2027 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.73	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.12	2.46	1,369	89
Travis Ott L 2027 · 3.80 FIP	22	SP-	3.80	20.9%	12.3%	1.7%	.253	3.67	24.7%	14.4%	70	-0.13	3.67	188	89
Luis Lugo L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	16.7%	10.9%	2.2%	.322	5.06	14.2%	3.7%	294	+0.78	4.28	622	89
Rylan Kaufman L 2027 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	19.3%	12.1%	3.0%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.08	4.01	212	89
Joe Whitman L 2027 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP-	3.91	18.6%	9.9%	2.1%	.303	3.79	20.4%	10.8%	131	-0.12	3.78	234	88
Damon Jones L 2028 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.83	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.29	3.69	269	88
Drew Dowd L 2027 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP-	4.39	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.14	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.25	3.14	166	88
Ixan Henderson L 2027 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP-	3.76	18.1%	11.1%	1.4%	.280	3.27	20.4%	9.9%	132	-0.49	3.27	236	88
Adam Tulloch L 2028 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.5%	.313	4.46	17.7%	2.8%	117	-0.05	4.21	212	88
Greg Farone L 2028 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	20.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.301	3.20	24.3%	17.7%	12	-1.10	3.20	117	88
Sam Garcia L 2028 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP-	5.14	18.5%	12.7%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	5.14	101	87
Seth Lonsway L 2028 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.18	16.0%	4.2%	319	-0.22	3.35	414	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.8	$25M	+$24M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.8	$26M	+$25M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.8	$27M	+$26M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.7	$27M	+$22M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+2.5	$25M	+$19M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+2.3	$24M	+$15M
Totals		$23M		$154M	+$131M