Melkis Hernández

P Lake County Captains

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#631ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	18	8	60	4.18	2.62	25.6%	10.2%	—	K 17.8% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.78
2025	20	ALynchburg Hil…	25	21	114	3.64	3.21	24.6%	10.8%	—	K 18.2% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.07
2026	21	A+CLE	30	6	83	4.54	3.95	25.0%	18.2%	—	K 19.2% · BB 20.9% · FIP 4.79
2027PROJ	22	MLBCLE	—	—	0	5.68	5.68	17.9%	18.7%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCLE	6	6	38	5.36	5.24	19.0%	15.9%	0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCLE	8	8	53	5.08	4.95	19.8%	14.1%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control35Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsBryce Hubbart (age 22) · Colby Langford (age 22) · Victor Payano (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 141

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%17.9%

BB%18.7%

K-BB%-0.8%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Blue	12	11	33	166	33	38	1	92%	2.8	13.5%	28.6%	-15.1%	0.7%	5.94	5.99	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Blue	12	11	33	166	33	38	1	92%	2.8	19.9%	22.9%	-3.0%	0.6%	5.94	4.93	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	10	10	44	182	44	19	2	100%	4.4	16.4%	13.0%	3.4%	1.5%	3.71	4.18	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Blue	10	10	44	182	44	19	2	100%	4.4	24.2%	10.4%	13.7%	1.1%	3.71	2.99	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	60	266	68	27	2	44%	3.4	17.8%	12.3%	5.6%	1.2%	4.18	3.78	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	60	266	68	27	2	44%	3.4	17.8%	12.3%	5.6%	1.2%	4.18	3.78	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	8	60	266	68	27	2	44%	3.4	25.6%	10.2%	15.4%	0.8%	4.18	2.62	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	21	114	472	116	51	7	84%	4.5	18.2%	12.8%	5.4%	1.6%	3.64	4.07	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	21	114	472	116	51	7	84%	4.5	18.2%	12.8%	5.4%	1.6%	3.64	4.07	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	21	114	472	116	51	7	84%	4.5	24.6%	10.8%	13.8%	1.5%	3.64	3.21	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	30	6	83	412	103	75	4	20%	2.8	19.2%	20.9%	-1.7%	1.2%	4.54	4.79	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	30	6	83	412	103	75	4	20%	2.8	19.2%	20.9%	-1.7%	1.2%	4.54	4.79	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	30	6	83	412	103	75	4	20%	2.8	25.0%	18.2%	6.8%	1.0%	4.54	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.9%	18.7%	-0.8%	2.4%	5.68	5.68	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	76	323	61	51	8	100%	6.4	19.0%	15.9%	3.1%	2.5%	5.36	5.24	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	76	323	64	46	8	100%	6.4	19.8%	14.1%	5.7%	2.5%	5.08	4.95	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	68	289	59	38	7	100%	6.8	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	2.5%	4.88	4.77	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	68	287	59	37	7	100%	6.8	20.5%	12.8%	7.7%	2.5%	4.79	4.74	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	66	279	57	36	7	100%	6.6	20.5%	12.9%	7.6%	2.5%	4.78	4.78	+0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	63	266	54	35	7	100%	6.3	20.4%	13.1%	7.3%	2.6%	4.83	4.86	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	59	248	50	33	7	100%	6.5	20.2%	13.3%	6.9%	2.8%	4.93	4.99	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	8	8	54	228	45	31	7	100%	6.7	19.8%	13.6%	6.2%	3.0%	5.07	5.17	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	38	160	31	26	4	100%	6.3	19.0%	15.9%	3.1%	2.4%	5.36	5.24	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	53	224	44	32	6	100%	6.6	19.8%	14.1%	5.7%	2.5%	5.08	4.95	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	56	236	48	31	6	100%	6.2	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	2.5%	4.88	4.77	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	59	249	51	32	6	100%	6.6	20.5%	12.8%	7.7%	2.5%	4.79	4.74	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	60	253	52	33	6	100%	6.7	20.5%	12.9%	7.6%	2.5%	4.78	4.78	+0.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	58	245	50	32	6	100%	6.4	20.4%	13.1%	7.3%	2.6%	4.83	4.86	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	55	232	47	31	6	100%	6.9	20.2%	13.3%	6.9%	2.8%	4.93	4.99	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	50	211	42	29	6	100%	6.2	19.8%	13.6%	6.2%	3.0%	5.07	5.17	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	429	1811	364	244	47	100%	6.6	20.1%	13.5%	6.6%	2.6%	4.94	4.53	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	170	114	22	100%	6.6	20.1%	13.5%	6.6%	2.6%	4.94	4.53	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		95	56	334	1498	265	250	20	59%	3.5	17.7%	16.7%	1.0%	1.3%	4.20	4.45	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	33	200	896	158	150	12	59%	3.5	17.7%	16.7%	1.0%	1.3%	4.20	4.45	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 83 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.79 (+0.96)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.20%	—	×1.150	20.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.97%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 114 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.07 (+0.87)K% 24.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.58%	—	×0.740	18.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×1.180	12.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷1.184	×1.300	1.63%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Guardians · 38 IPFIP 1.45 → 2.47 (+1.02)K% 29.8% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.81%	—	×0.680	20.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.83%	—	×1.250	8.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.984	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 1.45 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALynchburg Hillcats · 22 IPFIP 4.47 → 5.80 (+1.33)K% 19.0% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.740	14.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.24%	—	×1.180	17.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷0.844	×1.300	2.93%

Result: FIP 4.47 → 5.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Guardians Blue · 44 IPFIP 2.98 → 4.18 (+1.20)K% 24.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.18%	—	×0.680	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.44%	—	×1.250	13.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.035	×1.400	1.49%

Result: FIP 2.98 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL CLE Blue · 33 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.99 (+1.34)K% 19.9% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.88%	—	×0.680	13.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.89%	—	×1.250	28.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.60%	÷1.128	×1.400	0.75%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melkis Hernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.68	17.9%	18.7%	2.4%	—	4.99	19.7%	5.3%	221	-0.69	—	—	—
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	87
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	84
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	83
Ryan Lawlor L 2016 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.1%	15.8%	1.4%	.264	2.42	25.5%	15.1%	119	-2.10	2.24	201	81
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	79
Esmerlin Vinicio L 2024 · 4.81 FIP	21	SW	4.81	16.2%	16.8%	1.7%	.261	4.29	19.5%	3.3%	113	-0.52	3.73	383	79
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	78
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	77
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	77
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	77
Marino Santy L 2024 · 4.80 FIP	22	SW	4.80	17.6%	16.1%	2.1%	.322	4.51	20.3%	1.1%	82	-0.29	3.91	270	77
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	75
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	75
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	75
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	75
Ferrol Heredia L 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	13.6%	16.0%	1.1%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	127	75
Javier Atencio L 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP-	5.66	12.9%	18.4%	2.4%	.387	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	74
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	74
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	74
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	66	19.8%	14.2%	1.00	5.05
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*