Melkis Hernández

Melkis Hernández P Lake County Captains

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.6 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 80 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119128vR 137

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%17.1%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%3.2%

ROS IP80

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$7M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$29M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL CLE Blue	12	11	33	166	33	38	1	92%	2.8	13.5%	28.6%	-15.1%	0.7%	5.94	5.95	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL CLE Blue	12	11	33	166	33	38	1	92%	2.8	19.9%	22.9%	-3.0%	0.6%	5.94	4.93	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Guardians Blue	10	10	44	182	44	19	2	100%	4.4	16.4%	13.0%	3.4%	1.4%	3.71	4.15	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Guardians Blue	10	10	44	182	44	19	2	100%	4.4	24.2%	10.4%	13.7%	1.1%	3.71	2.99	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	18	8	60	266	68	27	2	44%	3.4	17.8%	12.3%	5.6%	1.4%	4.18	3.93	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	18	8	60	266	68	27	2	44%	3.4	25.6%	10.2%	15.4%	0.8%	4.18	2.62	—
2025	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	21	114	472	116	51	7	84%	4.5	18.2%	12.8%	5.4%	1.4%	3.64	3.95	—
2025	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	21	114	472	116	51	7	84%	4.5	24.6%	10.8%	13.8%	1.5%	3.64	3.21	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Lake County Captains	17	6	57	288	60	51	4	35%	3.4	16.0%	20.4%	-4.3%	1.7%	5.68	5.28	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	CLE	76	0	80	336	58	47	9	0%	1.0	17.1%	13.9%	3.2%	2.6%	5.24	5.24	-0.3
ROS	21	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.1%	13.9%	3.2%	2.6%	5.24	5.24	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	CLE	—	—	137	624	118	98	13	—	—	18.8%	15.7%	3.2%	2.1%	5.43	5.26	+0.2
2026 FULL	21	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	2	0	0	0	—	—	17.1%	13.9%	3.2%	2.6%	5.24	4.86	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	CLE	14	14	84	353	66	44	9	100%	6.0	18.7%	12.4%	6.3%	2.6%	5.00	4.91	+0.1
2028	23	MLB	CLE	15	15	87	366	72	42	9	100%	5.8	19.7%	11.4%	8.3%	2.6%	4.79	4.68	+0.4
2029	24	MLB	CLE	15	15	89	375	76	40	10	100%	5.9	20.3%	10.8%	9.6%	2.6%	4.63	4.54	+0.6
2030	25	MLB	CLE	15	15	90	380	79	40	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.4%	10.3%	2.6%	4.53	4.46	+0.8
2031	26	MLB	CLE	15	15	90	380	80	39	10	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.4%	10.6%	2.6%	4.48	4.44	+0.8
2032	27	MLB	CLE	15	15	89	375	78	39	10	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.5%	10.5%	2.6%	4.48	4.48	+0.7
2027	22	MLB	CLE	7	7	41	173	32	22	4	100%	5.9	18.7%	12.4%	6.3%	2.6%	5.00	4.91	-0.2
2028	23	MLB	CLE	11	11	63	266	52	30	7	100%	5.7	19.7%	11.4%	8.3%	2.6%	4.79	4.68	-0.0
2029	24	MLB	CLE	12	12	74	312	64	34	8	100%	6.2	20.3%	10.8%	9.6%	2.6%	4.63	4.54	+0.3
2030	25	MLB	CLE	13	13	80	338	70	35	9	100%	6.2	20.8%	10.4%	10.3%	2.6%	4.53	4.46	+0.5
2031	26	MLB	CLE	14	14	82	346	73	36	9	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.4%	10.6%	2.6%	4.48	4.44	+0.6
2032	27	MLB	CLE	14	14	82	346	72	36	9	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.5%	10.5%	2.6%	4.48	4.48	+0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			71	71	423	1785	364	193	46	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.8%	9.6%	2.6%	4.61	4.17	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	172	91	22	99%	5.9	20.4%	10.8%	9.6%	2.6%	4.61	4.17	+2.9
Career	—			82	56	308	1374	232	223	19	68%	3.8	16.9%	16.2%	0.7%	1.4%	4.38	4.49	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—			53	36	200	892	151	145	12	68%	3.8	16.9%	16.2%	0.7%	1.4%	4.38	4.49	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melkis Hernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	17.1%	13.9%	2.6%	—	4.71	19.6%	8.1%	259	-0.53	—	—	—
Luis Rico L 2026 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	17.2%	13.0%	3.4%	.303	5.16	17.8%	5.9%	105	-0.01	4.43	199	90
Andrew Faulkner L 2027 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	18.0%	12.8%	3.0%	.290	4.18	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.66	3.78	252	87
Sam Garcia L 2028 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP-	4.74	18.5%	12.7%	2.9%	.284	3.62	25.5%	9.2%	24	-1.12	3.62	125	86
Nate Peterson L 2028 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	18.4%	11.4%	2.6%	.284	4.47	17.1%	5.8%	213	+0.07	3.67	288	86
Cole Kirschsieper L 2027 · 5.23 FIP	22	SP-	5.23	15.2%	12.0%	3.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.23	105	85
Dominic Perachi L 2027 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP-	5.25	17.5%	13.9%	3.4%	.324	3.93	17.1%	6.8%	182	-1.32	3.47	273	84
Adam Tulloch L 2028 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.65	17.8%	1.7%	139	+0.16	4.12	234	84
Kyle Twomey L 2027 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP-	4.08	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.89	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.19	3.89	141	84
Travis Seabrooke L 2026 · 5.15 FIP	21	SP-	5.15	12.0%	14.1%	2.3%	.309	4.56	14.7%	3.7%	97	-0.59	3.84	198	83
Gabriel Noguera L 2026 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.34	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.93	4.41	174	82
Pat Peterson L 2027 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP-	4.36	13.5%	10.6%	1.9%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	108	82
Rolando Gutierrez L 2026 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	12.8%	10.9%	2.5%	.286	3.80	16.2%	-0.1%	18	-0.95	3.51	113	81
Joe Kemlage L 2028 · 4.35 FIP	23	SW	4.35	19.4%	13.5%	2.1%	.278	5.53	17.6%	5.9%	65	+1.18	4.35	128	81
Julio Robaina L 2026 · 5.49 FIP	21	SP-	5.49	17.4%	16.9%	3.1%	.347	3.99	18.2%	8.7%	178	-1.50	2.72	431	80
Rylan Kaufman L 2027 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.3%	12.1%	2.4%	.305	4.69	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.34	4.01	212	80
John Beller L 2027 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	19.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.326	4.22	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.37	4.00	170	80
Ramon Perez L 2025 · 4.06 FIP	20	SP-	4.06	14.6%	12.3%	1.2%	.315	4.45	23.0%	6.2%	92	+0.39	3.13	199	79
Andrew Sears L 2026 · 4.18 FIP	21	SP	4.18	19.6%	15.4%	1.4%	.248	4.30	20.7%	11.8%	142	+0.12	3.45	232	79
Riley Cooper L 2027 · 4.27 FIP	22	SW	4.27	16.6%	12.0%	1.9%	.287	4.35	18.6%	8.4%	44	+0.08	4.27	132	79
Jared Beck L 2028 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.22	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.06	4.16	158	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7	87	19.8%	11.3%	1.01	4.72
Steven Brault ('21)	6	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	7	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	8	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jhoulys Chacín ('22)	7	108	19.4%	9.3%	1.13	4.51
Zack Godley ('20)	6	94	22.1%	9.5%	1.13	4.86
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	5	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48