Truman Pauley

P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTFG #920

ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ANYM	3	3	4	2.08	4.48	17.6%	23.5%	—	K 17.6% · BB 23.5% · FIP 4.59
2026	22	ACWS	25	24	104	5.30	4.88	25.4%	14.4%	—	K 18.8% · BB 17.0% · FIP 6.23
2027PROJ	23	MLBCWS	23	23	124	5.88	5.88	19.3%	17.2%	-1.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCWS	10	10	54	5.56	5.46	20.4%	14.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCWS	15	15	85	5.31	5.20	21.0%	13.5%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command40FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%

CompsMax Bain (age 23) · Will Schomberg (age 23) · Michael YaSenka (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%19.3%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP124

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	3	3	4	17	3	4	0	100%	1.4	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	2.08	4.59	—
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	3	3	4	17	3	4	0	100%	1.4	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	2.08	4.59	—
2025	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	3	3	4	17	3	4	0	100%	1.4	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	2.08	4.48	—
2026	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	25	24	104	472	120	68	17	96%	4.1	18.8%	17.0%	1.8%	4.7%	5.30	6.23	—
2026	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	25	24	104	472	120	68	17	96%	4.1	18.8%	17.0%	1.8%	4.7%	5.30	6.23	—
2026	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	25	24	104	472	120	68	17	96%	4.1	25.4%	14.4%	11.0%	3.6%	5.30	4.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CWS	23	23	124	524	101	90	18	100%	5.4	19.3%	17.2%	2.1%	3.4%	5.88	5.88	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	127	535	109	80	18	100%	5.5	20.4%	14.9%	5.4%	3.3%	5.56	5.46	-0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	128	542	114	73	18	100%	5.8	21.0%	13.5%	7.5%	3.3%	5.31	5.20	-0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	128	542	115	71	18	100%	6.1	21.2%	13.2%	8.1%	3.2%	5.19	5.13	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	126	534	113	70	18	100%	6.0	21.2%	13.1%	8.1%	3.3%	5.16	5.15	-0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	123	518	109	69	18	100%	6.1	21.1%	13.2%	7.9%	3.4%	5.20	5.23	-0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	117	495	103	67	17	100%	5.9	20.9%	13.5%	7.4%	3.5%	5.30	5.36	-0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	110	465	95	64	17	100%	6.1	20.5%	13.8%	6.8%	3.7%	5.44	5.54	-0.8
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	54	228	46	34	8	100%	5.4	20.4%	14.9%	5.4%	3.3%	5.56	5.46	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	85	359	75	48	12	100%	5.7	21.0%	13.5%	7.5%	3.3%	5.31	5.20	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	102	431	91	57	14	100%	6.0	21.2%	13.2%	8.1%	3.2%	5.19	5.13	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	108	456	97	60	15	100%	6.0	21.2%	13.1%	8.1%	3.3%	5.16	5.15	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	109	460	97	61	16	100%	6.1	21.1%	13.2%	7.9%	3.4%	5.20	5.23	-0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	107	452	94	61	16	100%	5.9	20.9%	13.5%	7.4%	3.5%	5.30	5.36	-0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	102	431	88	59	16	100%	6.0	20.5%	13.8%	6.8%	3.7%	5.44	5.54	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	112	666	2812	589	379	96	100%	5.9	20.9%	13.5%	7.5%	3.4%	5.29	4.91	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	177	114	29	100%	5.9	20.9%	13.5%	7.5%	3.4%	5.29	4.91	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		28	27	108	489	92	84	22	96%	3.9	18.8%	17.2%	1.5%	4.5%	5.17	6.18	-3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	50	200	906	170	156	41	96%	3.9	18.8%	17.2%	1.5%	4.5%	5.17	6.18	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Truman Pauley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	19.3%	17.2%	3.4%	—	5.26	20.9%	7.0%	384	-0.62	—	—	—
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	86
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	85
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	84
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	83
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
M.D. Johnson R 2021 · 5.30 FIP	24	SP	5.30	19.1%	17.3%	2.9%	.201	4.63	17.9%	7.9%	293	-0.67	3.52	395	80
Zach Messinger R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.91	18.3%	8.6%	289	-1.35	3.70	470	80
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	79
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	79
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	79
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	79
Matthew Thompson R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP	5.29	17.7%	16.9%	2.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	411	78
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	78
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	78
Zach McCambley R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP	4.97	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.26	24.8%	12.8%	123	-1.71	2.50	392	78
Josh Staumont R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	23	SP	5.40	20.7%	18.1%	3.2%	.280	3.79	27.7%	12.3%	171	-1.61	3.18	618	78
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	78
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	123	20.7%	14.0%	1.31	5.38
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Daniel Cabrera ('09)	4.5	149	16.7%	12.9%	0.93	5.10