Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 18 | 4 | 40 | 172 | 58 | 32 | 0 | 22% | 2.2 | 22.9% | 23.3% | -0.3% | 0.0% | 2.48 | 4.11 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 18 | 4 | 40 | 172 | 58 | 32 | 0 | 22% | 2.2 | 33.7% | 18.6% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 2.48 | 2.60 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 123 | 580 | 167 | 103 | 5 | 90% | 4.3 | 22.7% | 20.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 4.23 | 4.37 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 123 | 580 | 167 | 103 | 5 | 90% | 4.3 | 28.8% | 17.8% | 11.0% | 0.9% | 4.23 | 3.42 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 125 | 572 | 138 | 97 | 16 | 96% | 4.8 | 20.7% | 18.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.56 | 5.45 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 125 | 572 | 138 | 97 | 16 | 96% | 4.8 | 24.1% | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 5.56 | 4.89 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 41 | 5 | 74 | 329 | 103 | 50 | 4 | 12% | 1.8 | 27.6% | 16.0% | 11.6% | 1.1% | 3.51 | 3.41 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 41 | 5 | 74 | 329 | 103 | 50 | 4 | 12% | 1.8 | 31.3% | 15.2% | 16.1% | 1.2% | 3.51 | 3.05 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 12 | 71 | 309 | 89 | 45 | 8 | 25% | 1.5 | 25.9% | 15.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 3.31 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 12 | 71 | 309 | 89 | 45 | 8 | 25% | 1.5 | 28.8% | 14.6% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 3.31 | 3.96 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 26 | 0 | 26 | 112 | 37 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.0% | 14.3% | 18.8% | 1.9% | 2.45 | 3.17 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 26 | 0 | 26 | 112 | 37 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.0% | 14.3% | 18.8% | 1.8% | 2.45 | 3.10 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 64 | 0 | 66 | 264 | 72 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 2.4% | 2.88 | 3.38 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 64 | 0 | 66 | 264 | 72 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 2.3% | 2.88 | 3.28 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 40 | 184 | 47 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.4% | 16.5% | 8.0% | 1.8% | 6.13 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 40 | 184 | 47 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 9.2% | 1.6% | 6.13 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 1 | 24 | 105 | 31 | 14 | 1 | 4% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 1.2% | 4.50 | 3.33 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 1 | 24 | 105 | 31 | 14 | 1 | 4% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 1.0% | 4.50 | 2.81 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 35 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 14.5% | 6.9% | 0.6% | 4.25 | 3.47 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 35 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 8.4% | 0.6% | 4.25 | 3.35 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 8 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 25% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 1.29 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | CIN | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 57 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 4.67 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 14.6% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 4.67 | 4.76 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 66 | 279 | 68 | 39 | 6 | — | — | 24.5% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | 4.31 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 51 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 15.0% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 38 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 16.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.47 | 5.68 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 15.0% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 16.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.47 | 5.68 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 230 | 1 | 230 | 991 | 243 | 132 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 2.1% | 4.16 | 3.86 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 200 | 1 | 200 | 860 | 211 | 115 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 2.1% | 4.16 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 364 | 75 | 631 | 2812 | 686 | 473 | 52 | 21% | 1.7 | 24.4% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 1.8% | 4.08 | 4.18 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 115 | 24 | 200 | 891 | 218 | 150 | 16 | 21% | 1.7 | 24.4% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 1.8% | 4.08 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Staumont (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 2.5% | — | 5.33 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 147 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 74 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 71 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 70 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 69 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 69 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 68 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2027 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 68 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 67 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 67 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.59 | 2.82 | 284 | 67 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 67 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.5% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.40 | 231 | 66 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 66 |
| Collin McHugh R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.07 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 3.6% | .259 | 2.10 | 28.8% | 24.3% | 133 | -1.97 | 1.79 | 806 | 65 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.26 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 3.5% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 254 | 65 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 65 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.42 | 17.2% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 241 | 65 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 65 |
| Alan Busenitz R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.54 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .299 | 4.99 | 18.3% | 10.5% | 92 | +0.45 | 2.86 | 436 | 65 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.74 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 2.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 21.9% | 15.2% | 1.13 | 5.02 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |