Alan Busenitz
P
Louisville Bats
Age 35
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 120
ERA5.33
FIP5.30
K%18.9%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6195.3
Whiff%
p6026.9%
K%
p3920.6%
xwOBA vs
p100.389
FB (44%)
SI (23%)
CU (12%)
SL-0.5 (17%)
CH-1.1 (7%)
CT-1.9 (20%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 8 | 100 | 446 | 82 | 32 | 9 | 22% | 2.7 | 14.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 5.15 | 4.28 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 8 | 100 | 446 | 82 | 32 | 9 | 22% | 2.7 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 2.0% | 5.15 | 3.59 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 255 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.0% | 5.5% | 12.5% | 1.1% | 3.54 | 2.86 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 255 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.6% | 5.1% | 16.5% | 1.2% | 3.54 | 2.58 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 67 | 253 | 62 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 14.9% | 1.6% | 1.88 | 3.02 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 67 | 253 | 62 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.5% | 7.5% | 17.0% | 1.6% | 1.88 | 2.88 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 65 | 283 | 71 | 21 | 11 | 2% | 1.3 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 15.6% | 4.3% | 4.55 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 65 | 283 | 71 | 21 | 11 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.1% | 7.4% | 17.7% | 3.9% | 4.55 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 58 | 257 | 55 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 58 | 257 | 55 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.01 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 2 | 70 | 299 | 63 | 21 | 7 | 4% | 1.4 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 4.61 | 3.57 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 2 | 70 | 299 | 63 | 21 | 7 | 4% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 4.61 | 3.50 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 34 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 18 | 0 | 25 | 112 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 6.75 | 8.70 | — |
| 2025 | 34 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 18 | 0 | 25 | 112 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.8% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 6.75 | 7.01 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 41 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 5.33 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 36 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 5.43 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 30 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.66 | 5.87 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 5.43 | 5.57 | — |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.6% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.66 | 5.87 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 68 | 299 | 57 | 23 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 4.4% | 4.90 | 4.86 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 177 | 0 | 200 | 873 | 167 | 67 | 38 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 4.4% | 4.90 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 307 | 11 | 447 | 1905 | 358 | 151 | 56 | 4% | 1.5 | 18.8% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.14 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 5 | 200 | 853 | 160 | 68 | 25 | 4% | 1.5 | 18.8% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.14 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alan Busenitz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.30 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 4.1% | — | 5.71 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 86 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 82 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 81 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 81 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 80 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 80 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 78 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 78 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 77 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 77 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 76 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 35 | SU | 6.00 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 6.1% | .385 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 150 | 74 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 5.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.83 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 4.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 170 | 73 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 72 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 72 |
| Casey Fien R 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.11 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 136 | 70 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.44 | 19.2% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 239 | 70 |
| Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.83 | 13.1% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.23 | 173 | 69 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.83 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | .333 | 4.28 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 60 | -1.55 | 3.15 | 244 | 67 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 1.70 | 5.46 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |