Alan Busenitz
P
Louisville Bats
+0.0
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AAA
ERA4.95
FIP4.95
xFIP4.31
SIERA4.00
K%20.3%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%11.7%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†5050
FB Velo
p6195.3
Whiff%
p6026.9%
K%
p3920.6%
xwOBA vs
p100.389
FB (44%)
SI (23%)
CU (12%)
SL-0.5 (17%)
CH-1.1 (7%)
CT-1.9 (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 37 | 8 | 100 | 446 | 82 | 32 | 9 | 14.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 5.15 | 4.24 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 45 | 0 | 61 | 255 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 18.0% | 5.5% | 1.1% | 3.54 | 2.91 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 52 | 0 | 67 | 253 | 62 | 19 | 4 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 1.88 | 2.96 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 50 | 1 | 65 | 283 | 71 | 21 | 11 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.14 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 53 | 0 | 58 | 257 | 55 | 24 | 7 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 52 | 2 | 70 | 299 | 63 | 21 | 7 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 2.1% | 4.61 | 3.66 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 34 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 18 | 0 | 25 | 112 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 16.5% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 6.75 | 8.06 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 26 | 12 | 5 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 5.12 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 28 | — | 28 | 117 | 24 | 11 | 5 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 5.12 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 307 | 11 | 447 | 1905 | 358 | 151 | 54 | 18.8% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.07 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 5 | 200 | 853 | 160 | 68 | 24 | 18.8% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.07 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alan Busenitz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 4.0% | — | 5.17 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 28 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 82 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 79 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 79 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 78 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 78 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.83 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 5.8% | .385 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 150 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 76 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 75 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 75 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 75 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 74 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 74 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 74 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 74 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2024 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 148 | 73 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 6.11 FIP | 34 | SU | 6.11 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 5.0% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 170 | 72 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.24 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 113 | 71 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.14 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 212 | 71 |
| Casey Fien R 2024 · 4.87 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.87 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 136 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.