Alan Busenitz — OGILVIE

Alan Busenitz P Louisville Bats

Age 35 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.21

FIP5.18

K%18.2%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p6026.9%

p3920.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.389

FB (44%)

SI (23%)

CU (12%)

SL-0.5 (17%)

CH-1.1 (7%)

CT-1.9 (20%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	8	100	446	82	32	9	22%	2.7	14.5%	8.1%	6.4%	2.5%	5.15	4.25	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	8	100	446	82	32	9	22%	2.7	18.4%	7.2%	11.2%	2.0%	5.15	3.59	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	61	255	55	13	3	0%	1.4	18.0%	5.5%	12.5%	1.2%	3.54	2.92	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	61	255	55	13	3	0%	1.4	21.6%	5.1%	16.5%	1.2%	3.54	2.58	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	67	253	62	19	4	0%	1.3	22.7%	7.7%	14.9%	1.6%	1.88	3.03	+1.2
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	67	253	62	19	4	0%	1.3	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	1.6%	1.88	2.88	+1.3
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	65	283	71	21	11	2%	1.3	23.2%	7.5%	15.6%	4.1%	4.55	4.37	+0.1
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	65	283	71	21	11	2%	1.3	25.1%	7.4%	17.7%	3.9%	4.55	4.08	+0.4
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	58	257	55	24	7	0%	1.1	18.2%	9.5%	8.7%	3.2%	4.66	4.52	+0.0
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	58	257	55	24	7	0%	1.1	18.2%	9.5%	8.7%	3.2%	4.66	4.52	+0.0
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	58	257	55	24	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	2.7%	4.66	4.01	+0.4
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	2	70	299	63	21	7	4%	1.4	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	2.1%	4.61	3.62	+0.8
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	2	70	299	63	21	7	4%	1.4	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	2.1%	4.61	3.62	+0.8
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	2	70	299	63	21	7	4%	1.4	21.1%	7.0%	14.0%	2.3%	4.61	3.50	+0.9
2025	34	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	18	0	25	112	21	8	9	0%	1.4	15.6%	6.4%	9.1%	9.8%	6.75	7.98	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	18	0	25	112	21	8	9	0%	1.4	15.6%	6.4%	9.1%	9.8%	6.75	7.98	—
2025	34	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	18	0	25	112	21	8	9	0%	1.4	18.8%	7.1%	11.6%	8.0%	6.75	7.01	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			60	0	68	297	57	23	13	0%	1.1	19.2%	7.7%	11.4%	4.4%	4.90	4.92	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	CIN	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	18.2%	8.0%	10.2%	4.0%	5.21	5.18	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	CIN	44	0	46	193	34	17	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	8.7%	9.0%	4.3%	5.32	5.46	-0.5
2028	37	MLB MLE	CIN	38	0	40	169	29	16	8	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.4%	7.6%	4.6%	5.56	5.77	-0.5
2027	36	MLB CTX	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.7%	8.7%	9.0%	4.3%	5.32	5.46	—
2028	37	MLB CTX	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.0%	9.4%	7.6%	4.6%	5.56	5.77	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	68	299	57	23	13	0%	1.1	19.2%	7.8%	11.4%	4.4%	4.90	4.86	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		177	0	200	873	167	67	38	0%	1.1	19.2%	7.8%	11.4%	4.4%	4.90	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		307	11	447	1905	351	143	55	4%	1.5	18.4%	7.5%	10.9%	2.9%	4.29	4.09	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	5	200	853	157	64	25	4%	1.5	18.4%	7.5%	10.9%	2.9%	4.29	4.09	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alan Busenitz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	18.2%	8.0%	4.0%	—	5.60	17.4%	8.3%	86	+0.42	—	—	—
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	81
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	81
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	81
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	80
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	79
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	79
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	79
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	79
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	79
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	76
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	75
Felipe Paulino R 2019 · 5.82 FIP	35	SU	5.82	19.2%	9.4%	5.7%	.385	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	150	74
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	33	SU	5.42	14.3%	10.4%	4.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	148	74
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	73
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	71
Casey Fien R 2017 · 5.10 FIP	33	SU	5.10	15.8%	4.0%	5.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	136	71
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	71
Jason Motte R 2017 · 5.16 FIP	35	SU	5.16	16.3%	11.4%	3.6%	.193	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	113	70
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.38 FIP	35	SU	4.38	18.3%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	17.7%	8.6%	1.66	5.35
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41