Hendrick Caña — OGILVIE

Hendrick Caña P FCL Cardinals

Age 18 LHP 6'0" / 181 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%20.4%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	11	4	37	159	37	20	3	36%	3.4	15.8%	15.7%	0.1%	2.5%	2.43	5.14	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	11	4	37	159	37	20	3	36%	3.4	15.8%	15.7%	0.1%	2.5%	2.43	5.14	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	11	4	37	159	37	20	3	36%	3.4	23.3%	12.6%	10.7%	1.9%	2.43	3.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	9	7	29	136	40	13	0	78%	3.3	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	0.0%	4.60	2.58	—
YTD	18	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	9	7	29	136	40	13	0	78%	3.3	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	0.0%	4.60	2.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	STL	8	7	27	123	36	9	0	88%	3.3	29.3%	7.3%	22.0%	0.0%	4.72	1.56	—
2026	18	A RAW	STL	1	0	3	13	4	4	0	0%	2.7	30.8%	30.8%	0.0%	0.0%	3.38	4.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	STL	6	6	35	148	31	19	4	100%	5.8	21.2%	12.6%	8.6%	2.9%	4.97	4.89	+0.0
2027	19	MLB CTX	STL	3	3	17	72	15	9	2	100%	5.7	21.2%	12.6%	8.6%	2.9%	4.97	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	17	73	15	9	2	100%	5.7	21.2%	12.6%	8.6%	2.9%	4.97	4.51	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	174	105	23	100%	5.6	21.2%	12.6%	8.6%	2.9%	4.97	4.51	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		20	11	66	295	52	37	4	55%	3.3	17.7%	12.7%	5.0%	1.4%	3.39	3.96	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	33	200	889	157	113	12	55%	3.3	17.7%	12.7%	5.0%	1.4%	3.39	3.96	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hendrick Caña (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	20.4%	14.2%	3.0%	—	4.89	21.2%	8.6%	35	-0.30	—	—	—
Brayan Mendoza L 2022 · 5.29 FIP	18	SP-	5.29	17.9%	15.0%	3.3%	.273	3.89	17.1%	6.3%	221	-1.40	3.59	398	88
Javier Chacon L 2022 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	22.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.295	4.63	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.98	4.56	202	80
Elier Morillo L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	17	SP-	4.12	18.1%	12.7%	1.7%	.418	4.31	28.7%	8.3%	89	+0.19	2.67	115	80
Gabriel Agostini L 2022 · 4.84 FIP	18	SP-	4.84	14.6%	15.0%	1.9%	.311	5.24	12.7%	-2.7%	55	+0.40	1.97	122	79
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	78
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	78
Kelvin Rosario L 2023 · 4.34 FIP	16	SP-	4.34	16.3%	15.4%	1.2%	.287	5.81	16.2%	0.7%	93	+1.47	4.34	126	77
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	75
Francisco Villegas L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	18	SP-	4.66	13.5%	14.8%	1.5%	.288	5.41	17.6%	5.1%	90	+0.75	4.55	131	74
Yeury Gervacio L 2018 · 4.88 FIP	19	SW	4.88	13.9%	13.8%	2.2%	.376	4.70	17.8%	4.2%	65	-0.18	4.10	184	74
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	74
Juan Sanchez L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	18	SP-	4.49	14.2%	13.3%	1.7%	.333	3.36	24.3%	13.2%	103	-1.13	3.07	345	73
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	73
Yordan Nodal L 2019 · 5.24 FIP	17	SW	5.24	15.8%	20.7%	1.6%	.280	4.97	16.5%	1.3%	77	-0.27	4.94	193	72
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	71
Sam Hentges L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP-	4.34	18.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.333	3.99	18.9%	7.4%	192	-0.35	2.22	609	71
Braham Rosario L 2018 · 4.92 FIP	18	SW	4.92	13.7%	11.3%	2.8%	.248	2.97	16.7%	6.7%	59	-1.95	2.97	107	71
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	71
Jhon Medina L 2023 · 4.79 FIP	17	SW	4.79	12.7%	13.7%	1.9%	.271	5.04	14.7%	-1.5%	132	+0.25	3.31	168	70
Manuel Osorio L 2023 · 4.83 FIP	17	SP-	4.83	15.5%	17.7%	1.4%	.276	4.91	16.8%	-0.2%	130	+0.08	3.90	168	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	20.9%	13.2%	1.14	5.05
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99