Kelvin Rosario
P
ACL D-backs
Age 19
LHP
6'2" / 140 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 18 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 123
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
K%22.3%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 12 | 8 | 32 | 138 | 33 | 17 | 1 | 67% | 2.7 | 16.3% | 15.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 5.01 | 4.50 | — |
| 2023 | 16 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 12 | 8 | 32 | 138 | 33 | 17 | 1 | 67% | 2.7 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 0.7% | 5.01 | 3.04 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 10 | 5 | 39 | 167 | 41 | 15 | 4 | 50% | 3.9 | 16.7% | 11.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 2.97 | 4.50 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 10 | 5 | 39 | 167 | 41 | 15 | 4 | 50% | 3.9 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 2.4% | 2.97 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 14 | 1 | 26 | 125 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 7% | 1.9 | 14.1% | 22.0% | -7.9% | 6.2% | 4.10 | 8.09 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 14 | 1 | 26 | 125 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 7% | 1.9 | 20.8% | 17.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 5.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 14 | 0 | 23 | 123 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 17.1% | 16.3% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 8.49 | 6.21 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 0 | 18 | 77 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.60 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 42 | 200 | 48 | 24 | 6 | — | — | 24.1% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 6.78 | 5.50 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.06 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 50 | 14 | 121 | 553 | 89 | 88 | 20 | 28% | 2.4 | 16.1% | 15.8% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 4.82 | 5.69 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 23 | 200 | 912 | 147 | 144 | 32 | 28% | 2.4 | 16.1% | 15.8% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 4.82 | 5.69 | -0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kelvin Rosario (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.44 | 22.8% | 13.1% | 20 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Harry Gustin L 2029 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .331 | 4.42 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 89 | +0.45 | 3.77 | 132 | 81 |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.99 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .250 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.93 | 319 | 80 |
| Francisco Villegas L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.55 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .256 | 5.57 | 17.9% | 3.1% | 59 | +1.02 | 4.55 | 131 | 78 |
| Denny Bentley L 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 78 |
| Fabian Blanco L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.28 | 18.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .368 | 4.04 | 16.9% | 1.3% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.57 | 215 | 78 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.88 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .347 | 3.97 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.09 | 3.66 | 572 | 78 |
| Vance Tatum L 2028 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .319 | 5.18 | 15.6% | 2.3% | 85 | +0.14 | 4.80 | 116 | 77 |
| Connor Curlis L 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.49 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 1.2% | .306 | 6.24 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 172 | +2.75 | 3.49 | 309 | 77 |
| Yokelvin Reyes L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.13 | 20.1% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .293 | 4.11 | 15.6% | 3.6% | 140 | -0.02 | 3.50 | 194 | 77 |
| Daniel Juarez L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.45 | 24.9% | 14.7% | 2.9% | .389 | 4.29 | 26.5% | 9.0% | 68 | -0.16 | 3.79 | 221 | 77 |
| Adam Macko L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.88 | 22.4% | 14.6% | 1.5% | .353 | 3.57 | 27.2% | 12.4% | 72 | -0.31 | 3.51 | 382 | 77 |
| Kenny Rosenberg L 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.65 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .313 | 4.79 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 361 | +1.14 | 3.34 | 755 | 76 |
| Anfernny Reyes L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 19 | SU | 5.24 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 4.1% | .282 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 1.8% | 99 | -0.95 | 2.89 | 175 | 76 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.09 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .208 | 4.77 | 16.8% | 7.4% | 223 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 76 |
| Chase Watkins L 2029 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.81 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.8% | .346 | 4.29 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.48 | 3.27 | 232 | 76 |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2029 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 4.85 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.38 | 3.47 | 212 | 76 |
| Drew Harrington L 2028 · 4.18 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.18 | 15.7% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .295 | 4.11 | 12.5% | 5.4% | 175 | -0.07 | 3.19 | 190 | 75 |
| Zach Morris L 2029 · 3.59 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.59 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 1.4% | .286 | 4.59 | 13.9% | 2.4% | 84 | +1.00 | 3.40 | 109 | 74 |
| Jake Higginbotham L 2029 · 5.15 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.15 | 17.2% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .256 | 5.13 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 59 | -0.02 | 3.39 | 335 | 74 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2029 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.31 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .341 | 3.53 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.78 | 3.41 | 265 | 73 |