Kelvin Rosario — OGILVIE

Kelvin Rosario P ACL D-backs

Age 19 LHP 6'2" / 140 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 139

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%19.5%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%3.4%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	16	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	8	32	138	33	17	1	67%	2.7	16.3%	15.4%	0.9%	1.2%	5.01	4.34	—
2023	16	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	8	32	138	33	17	1	67%	2.7	16.3%	15.4%	0.9%	1.2%	5.01	4.34	—
2023	16	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	12	8	32	138	33	17	1	67%	2.7	23.9%	12.3%	11.6%	0.7%	5.01	3.04	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	10	5	39	167	41	15	4	50%	3.9	16.7%	11.2%	5.5%	2.9%	2.97	4.69	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	10	5	39	167	41	15	4	50%	3.9	16.7%	11.2%	5.5%	2.9%	2.97	4.69	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	10	5	39	167	41	15	4	50%	3.9	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	2.4%	2.97	3.48	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	14	1	26	125	26	22	4	7%	1.9	14.1%	22.0%	-7.9%	5.2%	4.10	7.54	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	14	1	26	125	26	22	4	7%	1.9	14.1%	22.0%	-7.9%	5.2%	4.10	7.54	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	14	1	26	125	26	22	4	7%	1.9	20.8%	17.6%	3.2%	3.2%	4.10	5.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	20	0	35	177	44	27	5	0%	1.7	17.6%	15.7%	1.9%	3.9%	7.01	5.76	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	20	0	35	177	44	27	5	0%	1.7	17.6%	15.7%	1.9%	3.9%	7.01	5.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	ARI	16	0	28	143	37	18	4	0%	1.7	25.9%	12.6%	13.3%	2.8%	7.16	4.04	—
2026	19	A RAW	ARI	4	0	7	34	7	9	1	0%	1.8	20.6%	26.5%	-5.9%	2.9%	6.43	6.33	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	ARI	35	0	37	157	32	22	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	3.0%	5.26	5.16	-0.3
2027	20	MLB CTX	ARI	17	0	18	76	16	11	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	3.0%	5.26	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	77	16	11	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	3.0%	5.26	4.78	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	120	22	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	3.0%	5.26	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		56	14	133	607	99	95	20	25%	2.4	16.3%	15.7%	0.6%	3.3%	4.75	5.51	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	21	200	915	149	144	30	25%	2.4	16.3%	15.7%	0.6%	3.3%	4.75	5.51	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kelvin Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	19.5%	16.1%	3.1%	—	5.16	20.5%	6.6%	37	-0.39	—	—	—
Esmerlin Vinicio L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	19	SW	4.71	17.6%	15.7%	2.0%	.365	4.87	17.2%	0.5%	207	+0.16	3.79	382	81
Anfernny Reyes L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	19	SU	4.98	21.6%	13.6%	3.6%	.282	4.34	21.0%	1.8%	99	-0.64	2.89	175	79
Develson Aria L 2019 · 5.19 FIP	18	SU	5.19	15.5%	19.7%	1.6%	.311	4.33	21.7%	3.1%	54	-0.86	4.32	137	78
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	284	77
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	76
Daniel Gonzalez L 2021 · 5.55 FIP	19	SU	5.55	13.6%	19.1%	2.1%	.318	4.98	20.1%	2.0%	100	-0.57	4.34	136	76
Daniel Juarez L 2019 · 4.45 FIP	18	SU	4.45	24.9%	14.7%	2.9%	.389	4.24	26.5%	9.0%	68	-0.21	3.68	221	76
Yordy Herrera L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	18	SU	4.98	20.6%	23.1%	1.3%	.283	4.88	21.2%	1.8%	117	-0.10	3.87	163	75
Jeremy Peguero L 2021 · 4.63 FIP	19	SW	4.63	17.3%	17.2%	1.5%	.345	4.08	20.1%	0.6%	87	-0.55	3.52	126	75
Harold Melenge L 2021 · 4.55 FIP	19	SU	4.55	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.297	3.44	16.4%	10.2%	89	-1.11	2.69	238	74
Zhiorman Imbriano L 2022 · 5.72 FIP	19	SU	5.72	12.3%	21.1%	1.8%	.283	4.79	13.2%	-5.0%	65	-0.93	3.82	100	74
Edgardo Ibarra L 2022 · 5.37 FIP	19	SW	5.37	16.2%	16.6%	2.8%	.250	5.26	14.4%	-5.7%	63	-0.11	5.26	142	74
Zach Matson L 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	14.4%	10.9%	2.0%	.319	4.72	25.2%	10.0%	68	+0.33	4.39	187	74
Jordi Martinez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	19	SW	4.73	17.7%	12.5%	2.8%	.258	4.17	16.6%	7.5%	104	-0.56	3.15	205	74
Ivan Jean L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	21	SU	4.50	16.8%	18.5%	0.9%	.258	3.77	20.1%	2.6%	121	-0.73	3.63	158	74
Ignacio Briceno L 2021 · 5.16 FIP	20	SU	5.16	12.7%	12.9%	2.7%	.230	3.33	17.0%	7.2%	82	-1.83	2.39	156	74
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	73
Gabriel Cotto L 2019 · 5.98 FIP	19	SW	5.98	11.3%	18.4%	2.8%	.309	5.15	18.5%	2.4%	113	-0.83	5.02	236	73
Nate Bertness L 2015 · 4.53 FIP	19	SW	4.53	13.9%	11.4%	2.1%	.396	4.65	14.2%	2.8%	291	+0.12	3.78	382	73
Andre Davis L 2015 · 6.34 FIP	21	SU	6.34	13.6%	16.7%	4.2%	.384	4.43	17.5%	9.9%	127	-1.91	4.14	154	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	20.2%	14.6%	1.17	5.36
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84