Yordy Herrera — OGILVIE

Yordy Herrera P FCL Cardinals

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 150 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120129vR 137

ERA5.45

FIP5.45

K%22.2%

BB%18.0%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5560

CMD2540

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	13	1	17	88	27	20	0	8%	1.3	20.9%	28.4%	-7.5%	0.0%	4.32	4.94	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	13	1	17	88	27	20	0	8%	1.3	30.7%	22.7%	8.0%	0.0%	4.32	3.46	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	17	0	29	119	36	22	1	0%	1.7	20.6%	23.1%	-2.5%	1.3%	3.68	4.98	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	17	0	29	119	36	22	1	0%	1.7	20.6%	23.1%	-2.5%	1.3%	3.68	4.98	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	17	0	29	119	36	22	1	0%	1.7	30.3%	18.5%	11.8%	0.8%	3.68	3.34	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	34	148	62	23	2	0%	1.9	29.9%	16.8%	13.1%	2.1%	3.15	3.87	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	34	148	62	23	2	0%	1.9	29.9%	16.8%	13.1%	2.1%	3.15	3.87	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	34	148	62	23	2	0%	1.9	41.9%	15.5%	26.4%	1.4%	3.15	2.26	—
2025	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	33	0	57	269	68	41	4	0%	1.7	18.7%	18.0%	0.7%	2.0%	5.65	4.89	—
2025	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	33	0	57	269	68	41	4	0%	1.7	18.7%	18.0%	0.7%	2.0%	5.65	4.89	—
2025	20	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	33	0	57	269	68	41	4	0%	1.7	25.3%	15.2%	10.0%	1.5%	5.65	3.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	0	28	134	31	28	2	0%	1.2	16.4%	25.2%	-8.9%	2.0%	6.18	6.02	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	0	28	134	31	28	2	0%	1.2	16.4%	25.2%	-8.9%	2.0%	6.18	6.02	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	STL	13	0	17	74	17	11	1	0%	1.3	23.0%	14.9%	8.1%	1.4%	4.24	3.78	—
2026	21	A RAW	STL	11	0	11	60	14	17	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	28.3%	-5.0%	1.7%	9.28	5.63	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	18.0%	4.2%	2.8%	5.45	5.45	-0.1
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	34	159	36	32	3	—	—	23.0%	20.4%	2.5%	1.7%	6.05	5.92	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	STL	90	0	94	399	95	61	11	0%	1.1	23.9%	15.3%	8.5%	2.8%	5.10	4.94	-0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	STL	93	0	98	414	103	56	11	0%	1.1	24.9%	13.6%	11.3%	2.8%	4.79	4.62	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	STL	96	0	100	424	108	53	12	0%	1.0	25.5%	12.5%	13.0%	2.8%	4.56	4.42	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	STL	97	0	102	429	111	51	12	0%	1.0	25.8%	11.8%	14.0%	2.7%	4.40	4.30	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	STL	97	0	102	429	112	51	12	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.8%	14.2%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	STL	95	0	100	423	110	50	12	0%	1.1	26.0%	11.8%	14.2%	2.8%	4.32	4.32	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	STL	93	0	97	410	106	49	12	0%	1.0	25.9%	12.0%	13.9%	2.9%	4.37	4.40	+0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	STL	88	0	93	392	100	48	12	0%	1.1	25.6%	12.2%	13.4%	3.0%	4.47	4.53	+0.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	STL	83	0	87	368	93	46	12	0%	1.1	25.3%	12.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.61	4.71	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	STL	44	0	46	194	46	30	5	0%	1.0	23.9%	15.3%	8.5%	2.8%	5.10	4.94	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	STL	68	0	71	300	75	41	8	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.6%	11.3%	2.8%	4.79	4.62	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	STL	79	0	83	350	89	44	10	0%	1.1	25.5%	12.5%	13.0%	2.8%	4.56	4.42	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	STL	86	0	90	380	98	45	10	0%	1.0	25.8%	11.8%	14.0%	2.7%	4.40	4.30	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	STL	89	0	93	393	102	46	11	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.8%	14.2%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	STL	89	0	93	393	102	46	11	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.8%	14.2%	2.8%	4.32	4.32	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	STL	87	0	91	384	99	46	11	0%	1.0	25.9%	12.0%	13.9%	2.9%	4.37	4.40	+0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	STL	84	0	88	372	95	45	11	0%	1.0	25.6%	12.2%	13.4%	3.0%	4.47	4.53	+0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	STL	79	0	83	350	89	44	11	0%	1.1	25.3%	12.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.61	4.71	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		703	0	739	3119	796	388	89	0%	1.1	25.5%	12.4%	13.1%	2.9%	4.51	4.09	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	216	105	24	0%	1.1	25.5%	12.4%	13.1%	2.9%	4.51	4.09	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		105	1	165	758	159	160	13	1%	1.6	21.0%	21.0%	-0.0%	1.7%	4.74	4.91	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	1	200	917	193	193	15	1%	1.6	21.0%	21.0%	-0.0%	1.7%	4.74	4.91	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yordy Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.45	22.2%	18.0%	2.8%	—	4.65	24.7%	11.0%	293	-0.80	—	—	—
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	81
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	79
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	78
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	78
Nathanael Heredia L 2022 · 4.67 FIP	21	SU	4.67	19.4%	18.2%	1.6%	.289	4.77	17.4%	-0.7%	110	+0.10	3.74	290	77
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	77
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	77
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	76
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	75
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	75
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	75
Yoldin De La Paz L 2023 · 4.38 FIP	21	SU	4.38	17.8%	15.8%	1.4%	.339	4.32	17.7%	10.5%	44	-0.06	3.51	124	74
Sam Selman L 2015 · 4.36 FIP	24	SU	4.36	20.9%	17.3%	1.5%	.346	3.30	26.1%	11.1%	128	-1.06	2.27	353	74
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	74
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	74
Cam Booser L 2015 · 4.38 FIP	23	SU	4.38	23.2%	23.1%	0.6%	.303	6.61	19.8%	-8.2%	25	+2.23	2.96	309	73
Raúl Alcantara L 2022 · 4.66 FIP	21	SU	4.66	16.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.291	4.42	18.9%	3.7%	230	-0.24	3.82	396	73
Carlos Meza L 2022 · 5.03 FIP	21	SU	5.03	20.3%	15.7%	3.0%	.321	4.34	20.8%	4.1%	71	-0.69	3.72	229	72
Brendan Cellucci L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	26.3%	18.6%	2.4%	.398	4.63	23.4%	6.9%	172	+0.06	3.98	288	72
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	96	25.1%	13.1%	1.11	4.63
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48