Yordy Herrera
P
Palm Beach Cardinals
+0.2
WAR
Age 21
LHP
6'2" / 150 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2030
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%10.5%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2030
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 13 | 1 | 17 | 88 | 27 | 20 | 0 | 20.9% | 28.4% | 0.0% | 4.32 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 17 | 0 | 29 | 119 | 36 | 22 | 1 | 20.6% | 23.1% | 1.3% | 3.68 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 18 | 0 | 34 | 148 | 62 | 23 | 2 | 29.9% | 16.8% | 2.2% | 3.15 | 3.90 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 33 | 0 | 57 | 269 | 68 | 41 | 4 | 18.7% | 18.0% | 2.0% | 5.65 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | STL | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 44 | 24 | 6 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | STL | — | — | 50 | 212 | 48 | 27 | 6 | 22.8% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | STL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 48 | 22 | 6 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | STL | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 24.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | STL | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 54 | 21 | 6 | 24.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | STL | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 56 | 20 | 6 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | STL | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 56 | 20 | 6 | 25.2% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.01 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | STL | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 56 | 20 | 6 | 25.2% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 4.02 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | STL | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 55 | 20 | 6 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | STL | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 53 | 20 | 6 | 25.0% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | STL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | STL | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 24.6% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | STL | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 24.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | STL | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | STL | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 85 | 1 | 141 | 638 | 141 | 129 | 10 | 22.2% | 20.2% | 1.6% | 4.35 | 4.66 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 1 | 200 | 907 | 200 | 183 | 14 | 22.2% | 20.2% | 1.6% | 4.35 | 4.66 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yordy Herrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.23 | 24.1% | 14.1% | 152 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.57 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.46 | 3.46 | 265 | 88 |
| Destin Dotson L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .288 | 5.76 | 23.0% | 3.1% | 48 | +1.87 | 2.90 | 113 | 87 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.97 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .347 | 4.00 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.03 | 3.74 | 572 | 85 |
| Seth Clark L 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.22 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.0% | .287 | 5.22 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +1.00 | 4.22 | 128 | 85 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 85 |
| Brian Marconi L 2029 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 85 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 84 |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 5.04 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.57 | 3.47 | 212 | 84 |
| Manuel Medina L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 4.4% | .319 | 2.81 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 78 | -2.23 | 1.26 | 157 | 83 |
| Abdallah Aris L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 109 | 83 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 294 | 83 |
| Andrew Walling L 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 95 | -0.54 | 3.14 | 151 | 82 |
| Hogan Harris L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 82 |
| Brendan Nail L 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.87 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .305 | 3.85 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -1.02 | 3.49 | 165 | 82 |
| Yenfri Sosa L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.45 | 21.7% | 14.3% | 2.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 128 | 82 |
| Wesley Moore L 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.66 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .254 | 4.19 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.53 | 3.66 | 111 | 82 |
| Brent Killam L 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 29.1% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .284 | 6.72 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 80 | +2.41 | 4.31 | 121 | 82 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .294 | 2.75 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.81 | 2.15 | 310 | 82 |
| Fernando Sanchez L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.91 | 24.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.94 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 213 | +0.03 | 3.08 | 266 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $13M | +$8M | ||