Nathanael Heredia

Nathanael Heredia P Springfield Cardinals

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 141

ERA5.69

FIP5.69

K%20.0%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%1.1%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Cardinals	12	7	49	228	48	35	2	58%	4.1	14.3%	19.2%	-4.9%	1.2%	3.83	5.00	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Cardinals	12	7	49	228	48	35	2	58%	4.1	21.1%	15.4%	5.7%	0.9%	3.83	3.81	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	4	56	271	70	59	1	13%	1.9	19.3%	25.3%	-6.0%	0.4%	5.79	4.92	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	4	56	271	70	59	1	13%	1.9	25.8%	21.8%	4.1%	0.4%	5.79	3.99	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	41	1	74	342	86	54	5	2%	1.8	19.4%	18.2%	1.2%	1.6%	4.12	4.67	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	41	1	74	342	86	54	5	2%	1.8	25.1%	15.8%	9.4%	1.5%	4.12	3.84	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	40	171	28	21	3	0%	1.6	12.3%	14.1%	-1.8%	2.1%	4.24	5.01	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	40	171	28	21	3	0%	1.6	12.3%	14.1%	-1.8%	2.1%	4.24	5.01	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	40	171	28	21	3	0%	1.6	16.4%	12.3%	4.1%	1.8%	4.24	4.24	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	44	197	53	30	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	17.3%	3.9%	0.4%	2.44	3.74	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	44	197	53	30	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	17.3%	3.9%	0.4%	2.44	3.74	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	44	197	53	30	1	0%	1.1	26.9%	15.2%	11.7%	0.5%	2.44	3.03	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	0	28	129	29	29	3	0%	1.1	18.2%	24.7%	-6.5%	2.5%	3.54	6.08	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	0	28	129	29	29	3	0%	1.1	18.2%	24.7%	-6.5%	2.5%	3.54	6.08	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	0	28	129	29	29	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	22.5%	0.0%	2.3%	3.54	5.53	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	STL	2	0	2	8	2	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	18.9%	1.1%	2.7%	5.69	5.69	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	STL	38	0	40	168	35	30	5	0%	1.1	20.7%	17.9%	2.8%	2.8%	5.53	5.52	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	STL	16	0	17	72	15	13	2	0%	1.1	20.7%	17.9%	2.8%	2.8%	5.53	5.52	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	17	74	15	13	2	0%	1.0	20.7%	17.9%	2.8%	2.8%	5.53	5.14	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	149	23	0%	1.1	20.7%	17.9%	2.8%	2.8%	5.53	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		172	12	292	1338	238	265	17	7%	1.7	17.8%	19.8%	-2.0%	1.3%	4.09	4.82	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	8	200	915	163	181	12	7%	1.7	17.8%	19.8%	-2.0%	1.3%	4.09	4.82	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nathanael Heredia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.69	20.0%	18.9%	2.7%	—	5.52	20.7%	2.8%	40	-0.17	—	—	—
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	91
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	86
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	85
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	84
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	84
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	82
Aaron Brown L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	17.6%	1.6%	.348	4.38	19.8%	5.2%	127	-0.58	4.04	269	82
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	81
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	81
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	81
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	81
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	80
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	80
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	80
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	79
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	78
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	78
Juan Pichardo L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	23	SU	4.83	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	77
Cam Booser L 2016 · 6.61 FIP	24	SU	6.61	19.8%	28.0%	3.0%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	309	77
Yoan Aybar L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	20.9%	19.7%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	166	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	20.4%	18.2%	1.06	5.58
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99