Raúl Alcantara

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 167 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	A+SEA	24	23	108	6.35	3.43	28.2%	13.3%	—	K 21.7% · BB 15.3% · FIP 4.43
2024	23	AASEA	37	2	71	3.44	3.69	21.0%	12.9%	—	K 17.0% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.50
2025	24	MIX2 levels	32	5	51	7.19	4.17	19.3%	16.6%	—	K 16.1% · BB 16.5% · FIP 4.29
2026	25	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	26	MLBBAL	1	0	1	5.21	5.21	18.0%	14.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBBAL	12	0	13	5.15	5.16	18.5%	14.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBBAL	16	0	17	5.14	5.18	18.8%	13.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsMatt Thornton (age 27) · Kyle Hunter (age 26) · Matt Purke (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%18.0%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%3.5%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	18	0	18	92	16	17	0	0%	1.0	11.8%	23.1%	-11.3%	0.0%	6.87	5.03	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	18	0	18	92	16	17	0	0%	1.0	17.4%	18.5%	-1.1%	0.0%	6.87	4.14	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	15	8	51	237	25	15	1	53%	3.4	7.2%	7.9%	-0.7%	0.6%	5.33	3.82	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	15	8	51	237	25	15	1	53%	3.4	10.5%	6.3%	4.2%	0.4%	5.33	3.26	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	6	47	213	60	23	3	46%	3.6	19.6%	12.8%	6.8%	2.3%	3.61	4.31	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	6	47	213	60	23	3	46%	3.6	28.2%	10.8%	17.4%	1.4%	3.61	2.85	—
2022	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	35	0	51	234	51	29	3	0%	1.4	16.1%	14.6%	1.5%	1.9%	4.09	4.66	—
2022	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	35	0	51	234	51	29	3	0%	1.4	21.8%	12.4%	9.4%	1.3%	4.09	3.57	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	24	23	108	496	140	66	9	96%	4.5	21.7%	15.3%	6.4%	2.2%	6.35	4.43	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	24	23	108	496	140	66	9	96%	4.5	28.2%	13.3%	14.9%	1.8%	6.35	3.43	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	37	2	71	310	65	40	4	5%	1.9	17.0%	14.2%	2.8%	1.9%	3.44	4.50	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	37	2	71	310	65	40	4	5%	1.9	17.0%	14.2%	2.8%	1.9%	3.44	4.50	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	37	2	71	310	65	40	4	5%	1.9	21.0%	12.9%	8.1%	1.3%	3.44	3.69	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	5	51	259	50	43	2	16%	1.6	16.1%	16.5%	-0.3%	0.8%	7.19	4.29	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	5	51	259	50	43	2	16%	1.6	16.1%	16.5%	-0.3%	0.8%	7.19	4.29	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	5	51	259	50	43	2	16%	1.6	19.3%	16.6%	2.7%	0.8%	7.19	4.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	18.0%	14.4%	3.5%	2.6%	5.21	5.21	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	32	0	33	141	26	20	4	0%	1.0	18.5%	14.0%	4.5%	2.7%	5.15	5.16	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	27	0	28	119	22	16	3	0%	1.0	18.8%	13.8%	5.0%	2.8%	5.14	5.18	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	12	0	13	55	10	8	1	0%	1.1	18.5%	14.0%	4.5%	2.7%	5.15	5.16	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	16	0	17	72	13	10	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.8%	5.0%	2.8%	5.14	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	0	29	124	23	17	3	0%	1.0	18.7%	13.9%	4.8%	2.8%	5.14	4.79	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	116	20	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.9%	4.8%	2.8%	5.14	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		174	44	397	1841	310	264	30	25%	2.3	16.8%	14.3%	2.5%	1.6%	5.22	4.39	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	22	200	928	156	133	15	25%	2.3	16.8%	14.3%	2.5%	1.6%	5.22	4.39	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 28 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.38 (+0.49)K% 18.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.05%	—	×0.810	14.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.04%	—	×1.100	16.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷1.170	×1.200	0.77%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 24 IPFIP 4.11 → 4.19 (+0.08)K% 20.6% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.63%	—	×0.860	17.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.25%	—	×0.900	16.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.79%	÷0.945	×1.100	0.92%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 4.11 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAArkansas Travelers · 71 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.50 (+0.83)K% 21.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.97%	—	×0.810	16.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×1.100	14.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.29%	÷0.820	×1.200	1.89%

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Everett AquaSox · 108 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.43 (+1.03)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.23%	—	×0.770	21.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.31%	—	×1.150	15.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷1.012	×1.250	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AModesto Nuts · 51 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.66 (+1.13)K% 21.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.79%	—	×0.740	16.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.39%	—	×1.180	14.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷0.855	×1.300	1.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Mariners · 46 IPFIP 2.77 → 4.31 (+1.54)K% 28.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.78%	—	×0.680	19.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.24%	—	×1.250	12.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.46%	÷0.904	×1.400	2.27%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 2.77 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Mariners · 51 IPFIP 3.24 → 3.82 (+0.58)K% 10.5% → 7.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.55%	—	×0.680	7.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.33%	—	×1.250	7.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.42%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.59%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKDSL Mariners · 18 IPFIP 3.97 → 5.03 (+1.06)K% 17.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.680	11.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.48%	—	×1.250	23.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.97 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Raúl Alcantara (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	18.0%	14.4%	2.6%	—	5.17	18.6%	4.7%	62	-0.04	—	—	—
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	79
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	78
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	78
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	77
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	77
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	77
Anderson Polanco L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	18.9%	16.3%	2.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	77
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	76
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	75
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	75
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	75
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	74
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	74
Ben Onyshko L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	16.1%	10.2%	2.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	74
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	74
Evan Shawver L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	24	SW	4.08	19.4%	15.3%	1.2%	.258	4.05	18.2%	9.0%	115	-0.03	3.79	281	74
Phil Pfeifer L 2018 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.4%	15.7%	1.0%	.279	4.06	21.4%	11.5%	161	-0.09	3.61	307	74
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	74
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	74
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	34	18.4%	14.1%	1.04	5.17
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
David Purcey ('13)	1.0	41	18.8%	12.8%	0.96	4.98
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*