Raúl Alcantara
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+0.1
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 167 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2028
ERA4.86
FIP4.86
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.6%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%5.7%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 18 | 0 | 18 | 92 | 16 | 17 | 0 | 11.8% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 6.87 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 15 | 8 | 51 | 237 | 25 | 15 | 1 | 7.2% | 7.9% | 0.6% | 5.33 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 13 | 6 | 47 | 213 | 60 | 23 | 3 | 19.6% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 35 | 0 | 51 | 234 | 51 | 29 | 3 | 16.1% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 4.09 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 24 | 23 | 108 | 496 | 140 | 66 | 9 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 6.35 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 37 | 2 | 71 | 310 | 65 | 40 | 4 | 17.0% | 14.2% | 1.9% | 3.44 | 4.53 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 32 | 5 | 51 | 259 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 16.3% | 17.8% | 0.9% | 7.19 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 52 | 37 | 6 | 19.6% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 4.86 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 54 | 36 | 6 | 20.4% | 13.4% | 2.4% | 4.78 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 54 | 35 | 6 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 54 | 34 | 6 | 20.7% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 4.74 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 52 | 33 | 6 | 20.7% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.76 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 50 | 32 | 6 | 20.5% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 48 | 31 | 6 | 20.2% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 46 | 30 | 6 | 20.0% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 43 | 29 | 6 | 19.7% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 40 | 28 | 6 | 19.3% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 5.15 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 37 | 27 | 6 | 18.9% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 5.26 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 34 | 26 | 6 | 18.5% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 5.39 | 5.47 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 174 | 44 | 397 | 1841 | 310 | 268 | 31 | 16.8% | 14.5% | 1.7% | 5.22 | 4.43 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 22 | 200 | 928 | 156 | 135 | 16 | 16.8% | 14.5% | 1.7% | 5.22 | 4.43 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Raúl Alcantara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 19.6% | 14.0% | 2.3% | — | 4.75 | 20.6% | 7.4% | 186 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Russell Smith L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.98 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 1.3% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 175 | 88 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.70 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.22 | 4.70 | 137 | 87 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 87 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.73 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 212 | 86 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.65 | 3.93 | 264 | 86 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.77 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.51 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 206 | 85 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.16 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 25 | +0.17 | 3.29 | 128 | 83 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.39 | 17.4% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .308 | 5.57 | 13.9% | 1.8% | 49 | +1.18 | 4.08 | 212 | 83 |
| Andy Oliver L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.6% | .283 | 4.60 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.45 | 3.97 | 165 | 83 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 83 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 83 |
| Cy Nielson L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.33 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 161 | 83 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 161 | 83 |
| Brian Moran L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 82 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 82 |
| Nick Lee L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.02 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 102 | 82 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 82 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.89 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 146 | 82 |
| Matt Trowbridge L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 1.9% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 106 | 82 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | .322 | 4.68 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.61 | 3.96 | 265 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.