Raúl Alcantara — OGILVIE

Raúl Alcantara P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 25 LHP 6'0" / 167 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%17.5%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%2.5%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	18	0	18	92	16	17	0	0%	1.0	11.8%	23.1%	-11.3%	0.0%	6.87	5.03	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	18	0	18	92	16	17	0	0%	1.0	17.4%	18.5%	-1.1%	0.0%	6.87	4.14	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	15	8	51	237	25	15	1	53%	3.4	7.2%	7.9%	-0.7%	0.6%	5.33	3.82	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	15	8	51	237	25	15	1	53%	3.4	10.5%	6.3%	4.2%	0.4%	5.33	3.26	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	6	47	213	60	23	3	46%	3.6	19.6%	12.8%	6.8%	2.3%	3.61	4.31	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	6	47	213	60	23	3	46%	3.6	28.2%	10.8%	17.4%	1.4%	3.61	2.85	—
2022	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	35	0	51	234	51	29	3	0%	1.4	16.1%	14.6%	1.5%	1.9%	4.09	4.66	—
2022	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	35	0	51	234	51	29	3	0%	1.4	21.8%	12.4%	9.4%	1.3%	4.09	3.57	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	24	23	108	496	140	66	9	96%	4.5	21.7%	15.3%	6.4%	2.2%	6.35	4.43	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	24	23	108	496	140	66	9	96%	4.5	21.7%	15.3%	6.4%	2.2%	6.35	4.43	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	24	23	108	496	140	66	9	96%	4.5	28.2%	13.3%	14.9%	1.8%	6.35	3.43	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	37	2	71	310	65	40	4	5%	1.9	17.0%	14.2%	2.8%	1.9%	3.44	4.50	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	37	2	71	310	65	40	4	5%	1.9	17.0%	14.2%	2.8%	1.9%	3.44	4.50	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	37	2	71	310	65	40	4	5%	1.9	21.0%	12.9%	8.1%	1.3%	3.44	3.69	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	5	51	259	50	43	2	16%	1.6	15.8%	16.5%	-0.6%	0.8%	7.19	4.31	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	5	51	259	50	43	2	16%	1.6	15.8%	16.5%	-0.6%	0.8%	7.19	4.31	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	5	51	259	50	43	2	16%	1.6	19.3%	16.6%	2.7%	0.8%	7.19	4.17	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	BAL	4	0	4	17	3	3	0	0%	1.0	17.5%	15.0%	2.5%	2.3%	5.17	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BAL	61	0	64	269	51	39	6	0%	1.0	18.8%	14.4%	4.4%	2.4%	5.04	5.01	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	60	0	63	264	51	37	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	14.1%	5.1%	2.5%	5.00	5.00	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	BAL	27	0	28	118	22	17	3	0%	1.0	18.8%	14.4%	4.4%	2.4%	5.04	5.01	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	38	0	40	169	32	24	4	0%	1.1	19.2%	14.1%	5.1%	2.5%	5.00	5.00	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	68	285	54	41	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	14.2%	4.8%	2.4%	5.02	4.63	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	121	21	0%	1.1	19.0%	14.2%	4.8%	2.4%	5.02	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		174	44	397	1841	309	264	30	25%	2.3	16.8%	14.3%	2.4%	1.6%	5.22	4.39	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	22	200	928	156	133	15	25%	2.3	16.8%	14.3%	2.4%	1.6%	5.22	4.39	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Raúl Alcantara (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	17.5%	15.0%	2.3%	—	5.01	19.0%	4.8%	126	-0.16	—	—	—
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	88
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	80
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	79
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	78
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	78
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	78
Anderson Polanco L 2018 · 5.95 FIP	25	SW	5.95	19.9%	20.9%	3.4%	.298	5.09	18.9%	2.6%	47	-0.86	4.10	316	78
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	78
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	77
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	76
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	76
Joey DeNato L 2017 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.3%	15.1%	1.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	167	76
Luis Ysla L 2017 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	15.7%	15.9%	1.0%	.326	5.35	18.5%	4.3%	180	+0.98	3.75	378	76
Fred Schlichtholz L 2021 · 4.63 FIP	25	SU	4.63	15.5%	13.4%	2.1%	.343	3.49	22.3%	16.4%	35	-1.14	3.49	175	75
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	75
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.83	14.4%	3.1%	142	-0.91	3.41	239	75
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	75
Ismael Guillón L 2017 · 4.35 FIP	25	SU	4.35	19.8%	14.8%	1.9%	.342	4.62	20.7%	8.4%	30	+0.27	4.35	193	75
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	74
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	18.6%	14.4%	0.93	5.06
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10