Raúl Alcantara
P
Biloxi Shuckers
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 167 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111120vR 129
ERA4.89
FIP4.89
K%19.6%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%5.7%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 18 | 0 | 18 | 92 | 16 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.8% | 23.1% | -11.3% | 0.0% | 6.87 | 5.03 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 18 | 0 | 18 | 92 | 16 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 18.5% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 6.87 | 4.14 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 15 | 8 | 51 | 237 | 25 | 15 | 1 | 53% | 3.4 | 7.2% | 7.9% | -0.7% | 0.6% | 5.33 | 3.82 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 15 | 8 | 51 | 237 | 25 | 15 | 1 | 53% | 3.4 | 10.5% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 0.4% | 5.33 | 3.26 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 6 | 47 | 213 | 60 | 23 | 3 | 46% | 3.6 | 19.6% | 12.8% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 3.61 | 4.46 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 6 | 47 | 213 | 60 | 23 | 3 | 46% | 3.6 | 28.2% | 10.8% | 17.4% | 1.4% | 3.61 | 2.85 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 35 | 0 | 51 | 234 | 51 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.1% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.09 | 4.88 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 35 | 0 | 51 | 234 | 51 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.8% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 1.3% | 4.09 | 3.57 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 24 | 23 | 108 | 496 | 140 | 66 | 9 | 96% | 4.5 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 6.35 | 4.42 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 24 | 23 | 108 | 496 | 140 | 66 | 9 | 96% | 4.5 | 28.2% | 13.3% | 14.9% | 1.8% | 6.35 | 3.43 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 37 | 2 | 71 | 310 | 65 | 40 | 4 | 5% | 1.9 | 17.0% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 4.79 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 37 | 2 | 71 | 310 | 65 | 40 | 4 | 5% | 1.9 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 3.44 | 3.69 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 5 | 51 | 259 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 16% | 1.6 | 16.3% | 17.8% | -1.5% | 0.8% | 7.19 | 4.43 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 5 | 51 | 259 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 16% | 1.6 | 19.3% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 7.19 | 4.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 36 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 14.0% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 4.89 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 38 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 4.81 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 4.81 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 0 | 19 | 81 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 4.81 | 4.41 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 114 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 4.81 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 174 | 44 | 397 | 1841 | 310 | 268 | 33 | 25% | 2.3 | 16.8% | 14.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 5.22 | 4.50 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 22 | 200 | 928 | 156 | 135 | 17 | 25% | 2.3 | 16.8% | 14.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 5.22 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Raúl Alcantara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 19.6% | 14.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.79 | 20.4% | 7.0% | 44 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 80 |
| Russell Smith L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 1.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 175 | 79 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.79 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 2.1% | .284 | 5.74 | 18.7% | -4.6% | 22 | +0.95 | 4.12 | 234 | 79 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 78 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 3.96 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 25 | -0.18 | 3.26 | 128 | 77 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 77 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 17.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .308 | 5.43 | 13.9% | 1.8% | 49 | +1.11 | 4.08 | 212 | 76 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .338 | 3.46 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.54 | 1.78 | 560 | 76 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.44 | 12.5% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .258 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 4.6% | 144 | +0.04 | 4.44 | 188 | 76 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.84 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.08 | 4.84 | 137 | 75 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 25.3% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .284 | 5.07 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 42 | +0.50 | 3.33 | 152 | 75 |
| Trent Szkutnik L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.35 | 18.4% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 429 | 75 |
| Braulio Lara L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 75 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.31 | 19.8% | 14.8% | 1.8% | .342 | 4.77 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 30 | +0.46 | 4.28 | 193 | 75 |
| Brian Moran L 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 75 |
| John Kilichowski L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 17.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 115 | 75 |
| Bryan Warzek L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.98 | 22.1% | 15.0% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 138 | 75 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.02 | 19.9% | 20.9% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.41 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 47 | -0.61 | 4.00 | 316 | 75 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 75 |
| Michael Heesch L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 14.0% | 10.3% | 1.2% | .284 | 4.59 | 11.1% | 2.8% | 44 | +0.72 | 3.87 | 109 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 44 | 20.0% | 13.7% | 0.93 | 4.85 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |