Manuel Osorio — OGILVIE

Manuel Osorio P ACL Guardians

Age 20 LHP 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 139

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%18.9%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%2.2%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Red	11	9	38	162	37	23	4	82%	3.5	15.5%	17.7%	-2.2%	1.4%	4.50	4.83	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Red	11	9	38	162	37	23	4	82%	3.5	15.5%	17.7%	-2.2%	1.4%	4.50	4.83	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Red	11	9	38	162	37	23	4	82%	3.5	22.8%	14.2%	8.6%	2.5%	4.50	4.34	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	10	47	185	43	25	0	91%	4.3	15.8%	16.9%	-1.1%	0.0%	1.71	3.90	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	10	47	185	43	25	0	91%	4.3	15.8%	16.9%	-1.1%	0.0%	1.71	3.90	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	10	47	185	43	25	0	91%	4.3	23.2%	13.5%	9.7%	0.0%	1.71	2.87	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	11	6	37	176	38	26	2	55%	3.4	14.7%	18.5%	-3.8%	1.1%	5.11	4.83	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	11	6	37	176	38	26	2	55%	3.4	14.7%	18.5%	-3.8%	1.1%	5.11	4.83	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	11	6	37	176	38	26	2	55%	3.4	21.6%	14.8%	6.8%	1.1%	5.11	3.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	23	3	46	204	57	26	7	13%	2.0	19.4%	15.7%	3.8%	4.7%	4.50	6.02	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	23	3	46	204	57	26	7	13%	2.0	19.4%	15.7%	3.8%	4.7%	4.50	6.02	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	CLE	15	3	35	152	42	18	5	20%	2.4	27.6%	11.8%	15.8%	3.3%	4.33	4.07	—
2026	20	A RAW	CLE	8	0	11	52	15	8	2	0%	1.3	28.8%	15.4%	13.5%	3.8%	5.06	4.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CLE	45	0	47	199	40	29	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	14.4%	5.6%	2.8%	5.26	5.14	-0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	CLE	47	0	50	209	45	26	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.6%	8.7%	2.7%	4.95	4.78	-0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	CLE	49	0	52	217	48	25	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.4%	10.7%	2.7%	4.70	4.55	0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	CLE	50	0	53	223	51	24	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	2.7%	4.51	4.38	+0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	CLE	51	0	54	226	52	23	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	2.7%	4.37	4.28	+0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	CLE	51	0	54	226	53	23	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.1%	13.2%	2.7%	4.30	4.26	+0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	CLE	50	0	53	223	52	23	6	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.30	4.29	+0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	CLE	22	0	23	97	19	14	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	14.4%	5.6%	2.8%	5.26	5.14	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	CLE	34	0	36	152	32	19	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.6%	8.7%	2.7%	4.95	4.78	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	CLE	41	0	43	182	40	21	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.4%	10.7%	2.7%	4.70	4.55	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	CLE	45	0	47	198	45	21	5	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	2.7%	4.51	4.38	+0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	CLE	47	0	49	207	48	21	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	2.7%	4.37	4.28	+0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	CLE	48	0	50	211	49	21	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.1%	13.2%	2.7%	4.30	4.26	+0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	CLE	48	0	50	211	49	21	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.30	4.29	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		285	0	299	1262	284	139	34	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.7%	4.55	4.08	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	93	23	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.7%	4.55	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		56	28	168	727	120	124	14	50%	3.0	16.5%	17.1%	-0.6%	1.9%	3.85	4.93	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	33	200	864	142	148	17	50%	3.0	16.5%	17.1%	-0.6%	1.9%	3.85	4.93	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Osorio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	18.9%	16.7%	2.8%	—	4.81	21.2%	8.4%	148	-0.74	—	—	—
Brayan Restituyo L 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.6%	14.6%	2.5%	.397	4.46	18.4%	6.3%	144	-0.35	3.66	239	82
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	80
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	80
Oriel Castro L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	20	SW	4.95	19.6%	19.0%	2.0%	.390	5.41	16.3%	-0.1%	41	+0.46	4.63	129	79
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	78
Alex Winkelman L 2016 · 4.44 FIP	22	SW	4.44	15.8%	14.7%	1.5%	.344	3.77	18.8%	6.5%	181	-0.67	3.40	246	77
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	76
Jhon Medina L 2023 · 4.79 FIP	17	SW	4.79	12.7%	13.7%	1.9%	.271	5.04	14.7%	-1.5%	132	+0.25	3.31	168	76
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	76
Roberth Fernandez L 2015 · 5.66 FIP	20	SW	5.66	11.4%	16.2%	2.7%	.356	4.92	14.7%	6.3%	60	-0.74	4.92	103	75
Luis Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.75 FIP	20	SW	4.75	14.7%	15.8%	1.6%	.374	4.08	16.2%	7.4%	210	-0.67	3.26	296	75
Carlos Velez L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	20	SW	4.56	16.3%	19.4%	0.7%	.283	3.91	17.8%	2.3%	35	-0.65	3.91	133	75
Riger Fernandez L 2018 · 4.61 FIP	20	SU	4.61	17.2%	19.5%	0.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	164	74
Javier Navas L 2017 · 6.10 FIP	19	SW	6.10	11.1%	19.7%	2.6%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	103	74
Steven Pérez L 2021 · 5.07 FIP	20	SW	5.07	18.3%	11.4%	3.8%	.305	4.81	20.2%	5.6%	116	-0.26	3.71	354	73
Ryan Anderson L 2021 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP-	5.71	14.7%	26.1%	1.0%	.373	3.73	20.3%	11.0%	149	-1.98	2.80	214	72
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	72
Ivan Jean L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	21	SU	4.50	16.8%	18.5%	0.9%	.258	3.77	20.1%	2.6%	121	-0.73	3.63	158	72
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	72
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	48	22.1%	11.6%	1.05	4.67
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22