Manuel Osorio
P
ACL Guardians
Age 20
LHP
5'10" / 170 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 122
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
K%22.0%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Guardians Red | 11 | 9 | 38 | 162 | 37 | 23 | 4 | 82% | 3.5 | 15.5% | 17.7% | -2.2% | 0.9% | 4.50 | 4.54 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Guardians Red | 11 | 9 | 38 | 162 | 37 | 23 | 4 | 82% | 3.5 | 22.8% | 14.2% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 4.50 | 4.34 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Mendoza | 11 | 10 | 47 | 185 | 43 | 25 | 0 | 91% | 4.3 | 15.8% | 16.9% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 1.71 | 3.90 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Mendoza | 11 | 10 | 47 | 185 | 43 | 25 | 0 | 91% | 4.3 | 23.2% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 1.71 | 2.87 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 11 | 6 | 37 | 176 | 38 | 26 | 2 | 55% | 3.4 | 14.7% | 18.5% | -3.8% | 0.9% | 5.11 | 4.69 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 11 | 6 | 37 | 176 | 38 | 26 | 2 | 55% | 3.4 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | 5.11 | 3.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 14 | 2 | 30 | 131 | 36 | 16 | 3 | 14% | 2.2 | 18.7% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.56 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.0% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.52 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 54 | 232 | 58 | 27 | 6 | — | — | 25.1% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 3.98 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 3.98 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 81 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 27 | 153 | 654 | 105 | 112 | 7 | 57% | 3.2 | 16.0% | 17.2% | -1.2% | 1.1% | 3.60 | 4.54 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 35 | 200 | 857 | 137 | 147 | 9 | 57% | 3.2 | 16.0% | 17.2% | -1.2% | 1.1% | 3.60 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Osorio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.0% | 10.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.36 | 22.6% | 12.6% | 25 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.28 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .271 | 5.86 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.58 | 4.28 | 128 | 84 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.89 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.14 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.25 | 3.59 | 294 | 83 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.43 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 82 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.50 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.55 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 177 | -0.95 | 2.94 | 221 | 81 |
| Benony Robles L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .262 | 5.00 | 19.2% | 4.5% | 135 | +1.42 | 3.58 | 271 | 81 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.88 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .347 | 3.97 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.09 | 3.66 | 572 | 81 |
| Steven Pérez L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.56 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .305 | 5.01 | 20.2% | 5.6% | 116 | +0.45 | 3.80 | 329 | 79 |
| Bodi Rascon L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.55 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .271 | 5.56 | 15.7% | 3.9% | 143 | +1.01 | 4.55 | 218 | 79 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .323 | 5.29 | 17.1% | 6.0% | 62 | +1.46 | 3.83 | 119 | 79 |
| Raúl Alcantara L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.46 | 19.6% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .295 | 4.64 | 19.0% | 4.2% | 229 | +0.18 | 3.82 | 396 | 78 |
| Johan Simon L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.42 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.6% | 1.1% | 41 | +1.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 78 |
| Keyshawn Askew L 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.37 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .274 | 3.78 | 20.7% | 5.5% | 196 | +0.41 | 3.37 | 262 | 77 |
| Rafael Marcano L 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.59 | 16.2% | 8.7% | 1.4% | .304 | 4.43 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 117 | +0.84 | 3.38 | 291 | 76 |
| Antonio Jimenez L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 4.34 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 248 | +0.94 | 3.31 | 422 | 76 |
| Francisco Villegas L 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.55 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .256 | 5.57 | 17.9% | 3.1% | 59 | +1.02 | 4.55 | 131 | 76 |
| Jack Patterson L 2028 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.72 | 14.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.08 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 80 | -1.64 | 3.08 | 127 | 76 |
| Conner Menez L 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 16.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .282 | 3.87 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 377 | -0.18 | 2.03 | 503 | 75 |
| Jacob Lopez L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.66 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .302 | 3.58 | 30.4% | 21.6% | 55 | -0.08 | 3.50 | 478 | 75 |
| Franklin Dacosta L 2025 · 3.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.78 | 15.9% | 8.1% | 1.8% | .274 | 3.69 | 21.2% | 13.5% | 118 | -0.09 | 2.83 | 247 | 75 |
| Blake Townsend L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.15 | 3.40 | 263 | 74 |