Jhon Medina — OGILVIE

Jhon Medina P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 20 LHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 145

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%14.9%

BB%16.6%

K-BB%-1.7%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	4	36	155	29	17	2	36%	3.3	12.7%	13.7%	-1.0%	1.9%	5.00	4.79	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	4	36	155	29	17	2	36%	3.3	12.7%	13.7%	-1.0%	1.9%	5.00	4.79	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	4	36	155	29	17	2	36%	3.3	18.7%	11.0%	7.7%	1.3%	5.00	3.63	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	10	8	42	170	38	12	1	80%	4.2	15.2%	8.8%	6.4%	0.7%	2.36	3.31	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	10	8	42	170	38	12	1	80%	4.2	15.2%	8.8%	6.4%	0.7%	2.36	3.31	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	10	8	42	170	38	12	1	80%	4.2	22.4%	7.1%	15.3%	0.6%	2.36	2.46	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	12	11	45	187	41	25	2	92%	3.7	14.9%	16.7%	-1.8%	1.5%	3.83	4.80	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	12	11	45	187	41	25	2	92%	3.7	14.9%	16.7%	-1.8%	1.5%	3.83	4.80	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	12	11	45	187	41	25	2	92%	3.7	21.9%	13.4%	8.6%	1.1%	3.83	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	23	1	46	236	45	45	7	4%	2.0	14.1%	22.5%	-8.4%	3.9%	10.45	6.87	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	23	1	46	236	45	45	7	4%	2.0	14.1%	22.5%	-8.4%	3.9%	10.45	6.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	COL	23	1	46	236	45	45	7	4%	2.0	19.1%	19.1%	0.0%	3.0%	10.45	5.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	COL	45	0	47	198	33	30	6	0%	1.0	16.6%	14.9%	1.7%	2.8%	5.61	5.52	-0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	COL	47	0	49	208	38	28	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.5%	4.6%	2.8%	5.32	5.19	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	COL	22	0	23	97	16	14	3	0%	1.0	16.6%	14.9%	1.7%	2.8%	5.61	5.52	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	COL	34	0	36	152	28	21	4	0%	1.1	18.1%	13.5%	4.6%	2.8%	5.32	5.19	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	44	35	7	0%	1.1	17.5%	14.1%	3.5%	2.8%	5.43	4.94	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	119	24	0%	1.1	17.5%	14.1%	3.5%	2.8%	5.43	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		56	24	168	748	107	121	16	43%	3.0	14.3%	16.1%	-1.9%	2.1%	5.51	5.12	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	29	200	889	127	143	19	43%	3.0	14.3%	16.1%	-1.9%	2.1%	5.51	5.12	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhon Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	14.9%	16.6%	2.9%	—	5.35	17.4%	3.2%	96	-0.55	—	—	—
Roberth Fernandez L 2015 · 5.66 FIP	20	SW	5.66	11.4%	16.2%	2.7%	.356	4.92	14.7%	6.3%	60	-0.74	4.92	103	85
Javier Navas L 2017 · 6.10 FIP	19	SW	6.10	11.1%	19.7%	2.6%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	103	84
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	82
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	81
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	80
Brayan Restituyo L 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.6%	14.6%	2.5%	.397	4.46	18.4%	6.3%	144	-0.35	3.66	239	79
Luis Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.75 FIP	20	SW	4.75	14.7%	15.8%	1.6%	.374	4.08	16.2%	7.4%	210	-0.67	3.26	296	78
Gabriel Cotto L 2019 · 5.98 FIP	19	SW	5.98	11.3%	18.4%	2.8%	.309	5.15	18.5%	2.4%	113	-0.83	5.02	236	78
Salvador Montano L 2015 · 5.23 FIP	21	SP-	5.23	11.5%	15.9%	2.0%	.301	4.65	21.3%	-0.0%	71	-0.58	4.44	116	77
Oriel Castro L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	20	SW	4.95	19.6%	19.0%	2.0%	.390	5.41	16.3%	-0.1%	41	+0.46	4.63	129	77
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	76
Scott Squier L 2015 · 5.28 FIP	22	SW	5.28	12.2%	11.2%	3.3%	.362	4.06	13.9%	7.9%	234	-1.22	3.29	276	76
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	75
Gregory Reinoso L 2016 · 5.11 FIP	20	SP-	5.11	12.3%	15.6%	1.9%	.299	6.70	11.3%	-7.8%	29	+1.59	4.18	105	75
Oscar Armenta L 2015 · 5.35 FIP	21	SW	5.35	11.8%	10.8%	3.4%	.318	4.84	9.8%	-5.0%	59	-0.51	3.84	118	75
Ryan Anderson L 2021 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP-	5.71	14.7%	26.1%	1.0%	.373	3.73	20.3%	11.0%	149	-1.98	2.80	214	75
McKenzie Mills L 2015 · 7.06 FIP	19	SP-	7.06	9.8%	21.4%	3.8%	.288	4.17	18.2%	11.0%	227	-2.89	4.12	334	74
Jaret Hellinger L 2017 · 4.79 FIP	20	SW	4.79	11.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.275	3.93	14.4%	7.4%	46	-0.86	3.08	209	74
Marlin Willis L 2018 · 6.72 FIP	20	SW	6.72	10.7%	20.8%	3.4%	.331	4.51	23.4%	-0.9%	36	-2.21	3.15	201	74
Edwin Escobar L 2015 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	9.6%	11.9%	3.9%	.268	4.28	13.7%	4.9%	122	-1.68	4.28	218	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	41	16.8%	14.7%	1.09	5.56
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78