Jhon Medina
P
Fresno Grizzlies
+0.0
WAR
Age 20
LHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2030
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.9%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2030
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 11 | 4 | 36 | 155 | 29 | 17 | 2 | 12.7% | 13.7% | 1.9% | 5.00 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 10 | 8 | 42 | 170 | 38 | 12 | 1 | 15.2% | 8.8% | 0.6% | 2.36 | 3.27 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 12 | 11 | 45 | 187 | 41 | 25 | 2 | 14.9% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 3.83 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 3 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 5 | 10 | 1 | — | — | — | 27.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | COL | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | COL | — | — | 41 | 187 | 39 | 26 | 5 | 20.8% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 7.02 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | COL | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | COL | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | COL | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 43 | 15 | 5 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | COL | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 24.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | COL | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | COL | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | COL | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | COL | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | COL | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 25.2% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | COL | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 42 | 14 | 5 | 25.0% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | COL | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 24.7% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | COL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | COL | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 36 | 23 | 127 | 545 | 78 | 78 | 8 | 14.4% | 14.2% | 1.5% | 4.52 | 4.49 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 36 | 200 | 856 | 123 | 123 | 13 | 14.4% | 14.2% | 1.5% | 4.52 | 4.49 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jhon Medina (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.16 | 23.4% | 14.4% | 120 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Jagger Haynes L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.27 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.33 | 18.5% | 2.8% | 214 | +1.06 | 4.27 | 239 | 94 |
| Raúl Alcantara L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.48 | 19.6% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 4.51 | 19.0% | 4.2% | 229 | +0.03 | 3.82 | 396 | 90 |
| Denny Bentley L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 86 |
| Jay Groome L 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.54 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.53 | 420 | 86 |
| Jorger Petri L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.67 | 19.1% | 15.2% | 2.3% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 147 | 86 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.98 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.77 | 4.21 | 128 | 86 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.57 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.46 | 3.46 | 265 | 86 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 294 | 85 |
| Luis Moncada L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.81 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 1.5% | .278 | 3.88 | 17.6% | 5.7% | 68 | +0.07 | 3.81 | 296 | 85 |
| Daniel Gonzalez L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.42 | 16.3% | 14.0% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 1.7% | 55 | -1.04 | 4.32 | 136 | 84 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 84 |
| Vance Tatum L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .319 | 5.07 | 15.6% | 2.3% | 85 | +0.03 | 4.89 | 116 | 84 |
| Jake Higginbotham L 2028 · 5.15 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.15 | 17.2% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .256 | 4.71 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 59 | -0.44 | 3.37 | 323 | 83 |
| Enrique Perez L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.81 | 16.2% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 133 | 83 |
| Yadiel Batista L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.71 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .318 | 4.25 | 14.0% | 5.6% | 75 | -0.46 | 3.06 | 160 | 83 |
| Seth Clark L 2029 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.22 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.0% | .287 | 5.22 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +1.00 | 4.22 | 128 | 83 |
| Steven Pérez L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.63 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.82 | 20.2% | 5.6% | 116 | +0.19 | 3.69 | 299 | 82 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.64 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .286 | 3.46 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 142 | -1.18 | 2.95 | 186 | 82 |
| Carlos Meza L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.06 | 15.5% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .325 | 4.66 | 20.6% | 4.4% | 138 | -0.40 | 3.72 | 229 | 82 |
| Hogan Harris L 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $12M | +$8M | ||