Marlin Willis
P Northwest Arkansas Naturals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AKC | 27 | 0 | 42 | 4.93 | 3.81 | 30.6% | 18.9% | — | K 22.6% · BB 22.3% · FIP 4.93 | |
| 2023 | 25 | A+KC | 29 | 0 | 31 | 7.84 | 4.33 | 29.6% | 27.7% | — | K 22.8% · BB 31.8% · FIP 5.21 | |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX3 levels | 26 | 0 | 38 | 4.93 | 3.36 | 24.1% | 12.9% | — | K 15.4% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.68 | |
| 2026 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBKC | — | — | 0 | 5.13 | 5.13 | 19.3% | 13.4% | — | ||
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 30 | MLBKC | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5.16 | 5.23 | 19.4% | 13.2% | -0.0 | ||
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | 8 | 3 | 21 | 92 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 38% | 2.7 | 9.6% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 3.80 | 3.15 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Royals | 8 | 3 | 21 | 92 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 38% | 2.7 | 14.1% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 3.80 | 2.58 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | 11 | 3 | 39 | 204 | 32 | 34 | 5 | 27% | 3.5 | 10.7% | 20.8% | -10.2% | 3.4% | 8.38 | 6.72 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK RAW | Burlington Royals | 11 | 3 | 39 | 204 | 32 | 34 | 5 | 27% | 3.5 | 15.7% | 16.7% | -1.0% | 2.5% | 8.38 | 5.76 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 41 | 204 | 62 | 38 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.4% | 24.3% | -0.8% | 0.6% | 6.15 | 4.51 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 41 | 204 | 62 | 38 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.4% | 18.6% | 11.8% | 0.5% | 6.15 | 3.17 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | 27 | 0 | 42 | 206 | 63 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.6% | 22.3% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 4.93 | 4.93 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | 27 | 0 | 42 | 206 | 63 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.6% | 18.9% | 11.7% | 1.5% | 4.93 | 3.81 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | 29 | 0 | 31 | 159 | 47 | 44 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 31.8% | -9.1% | 0.0% | 7.84 | 5.21 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | 29 | 0 | 31 | 159 | 47 | 44 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.6% | 27.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 7.84 | 4.33 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 26 | 0 | 38 | 170 | 41 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.4% | 16.1% | -0.6% | 1.5% | 4.93 | 4.68 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 26 | 0 | 38 | 170 | 41 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.4% | 16.1% | -0.6% | 1.5% | 4.93 | 4.68 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 26 | 0 | 38 | 170 | 41 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 1.2% | 4.93 | 3.36 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.3% | 13.4% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 5.13 | — |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | KC | 15 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 13.2% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | KC | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 13.2% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 5.23 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 13.2% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 4.85 | -0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 122 | 41 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 13.2% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 4.85 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 127 | 6 | 212 | 1035 | 187 | 222 | 14 | 5% | 1.7 | 18.1% | 21.5% | -3.4% | 1.4% | 6.10 | 5.04 | -0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 120 | 6 | 200 | 975 | 177 | 209 | 13 | 5% | 1.7 | 18.1% | 21.5% | -3.4% | 1.4% | 6.10 | 5.04 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 19 IPFIP 4.74 → 5.44 (+0.70)K% 21.1% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 21.05% | — | ×0.810 | 17.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 17.89% | — | ×1.100 | 19.68% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.11% | ÷1.077 | ×1.200 | 2.35% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).
Result: FIP 4.74 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 13 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.22 (+0.46)K% 16.0% → 12.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 16.00% | — | ×0.770 | 12.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 8.00% | — | ×1.150 | 9.20% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×1.250 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).
Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Royals · 6 IPFIP -0.78 → 0.75 (+1.53)K% 52.0% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 52.00% | — | ×0.680 | 35.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 4.00% | — | ×1.250 | 5.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×1.400 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).
Result: FIP -0.78 → 0.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 31 IPFIP 4.11 → 5.21 (+1.10)K% 29.6% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 29.56% | — | ×0.770 | 22.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 27.67% | — | ×1.150 | 31.82% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.033 | ×1.250 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).
Result: FIP 4.11 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 42 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.93 (+1.22)K% 30.6% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 30.58% | — | ×0.740 | 22.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 18.93% | — | ×1.180 | 22.34% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.46% | ÷1.140 | ×1.300 | 1.66% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).
Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AColumbia Fireflies · 36 IPFIP 3.33 → 4.51 (+1.18)K% 31.7% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 31.67% | — | ×0.740 | 23.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 20.56% | — | ×1.180 | 24.26% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.56% | ÷1.237 | ×1.300 | 0.58% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 147).
Result: FIP 3.33 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Royals Blue · 5 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.56 (+0.69)K% 20.8% → 14.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 20.83% | — | ×0.680 | 14.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 4.17% | — | ×1.250 | 5.21% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.400 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKBurlington Royals · 39 IPFIP 5.23 → 6.72 (+1.49)K% 15.7% → 10.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 15.69% | — | ×0.680 | 10.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 16.67% | — | ×1.250 | 20.83% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.400 | 3.43% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 5.23 → 6.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).