Marlin Willis
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 126
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
K%21.3%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%9.1%
ROS IP19
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | AZL Royals | 8 | 3 | 21 | 92 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 38% | 2.7 | 9.6% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 3.80 | 3.15 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | AZL Royals | 8 | 3 | 21 | 92 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 38% | 2.7 | 14.1% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 3.80 | 2.58 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Burlington Royals | 11 | 3 | 39 | 204 | 32 | 34 | 5 | 27% | 3.5 | 10.7% | 20.8% | -10.2% | 3.4% | 8.38 | 6.72 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Burlington Royals | 11 | 3 | 39 | 204 | 32 | 34 | 5 | 27% | 3.5 | 15.7% | 16.7% | -1.0% | 2.5% | 8.38 | 5.76 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 41 | 204 | 62 | 38 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.4% | 24.3% | -0.8% | 0.5% | 6.15 | 4.46 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 41 | 204 | 62 | 38 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.4% | 18.6% | 11.8% | 0.5% | 6.15 | 3.17 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 27 | 0 | 42 | 206 | 63 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.6% | 22.3% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 4.93 | 4.83 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 27 | 0 | 42 | 206 | 63 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.6% | 18.9% | 11.7% | 1.5% | 4.93 | 3.81 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 29 | 0 | 31 | 159 | 47 | 44 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 31.8% | -9.1% | 0.0% | 7.84 | 5.21 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 29 | 0 | 31 | 159 | 47 | 44 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.6% | 27.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 7.84 | 4.33 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 0 | 38 | 170 | 41 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.4% | 16.1% | -0.6% | 1.4% | 4.93 | 4.62 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 0 | 38 | 170 | 41 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 1.2% | 4.93 | 3.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | KC | 18 | 0 | 19 | 79 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.45 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 127 | 6 | 212 | 1035 | 187 | 222 | 13 | 5% | 1.7 | 18.1% | 21.5% | -3.4% | 1.3% | 6.10 | 5.00 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 6 | 200 | 975 | 177 | 209 | 13 | 5% | 1.7 | 18.1% | 21.5% | -3.4% | 1.3% | 6.10 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marlin Willis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.83 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 20 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 82 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 80 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 80 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 79 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 79 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 78 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 78 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 78 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 246 | 77 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 77 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 77 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 76 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 76 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 76 |
| Tristan Garnett L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.13 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 185 | 75 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.71 | 22.3% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 265 | 75 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 75 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 4.73 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.31 | 3.33 | 228 | 74 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 74 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 74 |