Marlin Willis — OGILVIE

Marlin Willis P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.52

FIP5.52

K%18.5%

BB%16.5%

K-BB%2.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	8	3	21	92	13	5	0	38%	2.7	9.6%	6.8%	2.8%	0.0%	3.80	3.15	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	8	3	21	92	13	5	0	38%	2.7	14.1%	5.4%	8.7%	0.0%	3.80	2.58	—
2018	20	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	11	3	39	204	32	34	5	27%	3.5	10.7%	20.8%	-10.2%	3.4%	8.38	6.72	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Burlington Royals	11	3	39	204	32	34	5	27%	3.5	15.7%	16.7%	-1.0%	2.5%	8.38	5.76	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	41	204	62	38	1	0%	1.6	23.4%	24.3%	-0.8%	0.6%	6.15	4.51	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	41	204	62	38	1	0%	1.6	30.4%	18.6%	11.8%	0.5%	6.15	3.17	—
2022	24	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	27	0	42	206	63	39	3	0%	1.6	22.6%	22.3%	0.3%	1.7%	4.93	4.93	—
2022	24	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	27	0	42	206	63	39	3	0%	1.6	30.6%	18.9%	11.7%	1.5%	4.93	3.81	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	29	0	31	159	47	44	0	0%	1.1	22.8%	31.8%	-9.1%	0.0%	7.84	5.21	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	29	0	31	159	47	44	0	0%	1.1	22.8%	31.8%	-9.1%	0.0%	7.84	5.21	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	29	0	31	159	47	44	0	0%	1.1	29.6%	27.7%	1.9%	0.0%	7.84	4.33	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	38	170	41	22	2	0%	1.5	15.4%	16.1%	-0.6%	1.5%	4.93	4.68	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	38	170	41	22	2	0%	1.5	15.4%	16.1%	-0.6%	1.5%	4.93	4.68	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	38	170	41	22	2	0%	1.5	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	1.2%	4.93	3.36	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	KC	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.5%	16.5%	2.0%	2.8%	5.52	5.52	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	KC	19	0	20	84	16	13	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	16.0%	2.8%	2.9%	5.48	5.53	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	KC	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	18.8%	16.0%	2.8%	2.9%	5.48	5.53	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	4	1	0%	1.0	18.8%	16.0%	2.8%	2.9%	5.48	5.15	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	128	32	0%	1.1	18.8%	16.0%	2.8%	2.9%	5.48	5.15	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		127	6	212	1035	187	222	14	5%	1.7	18.1%	21.5%	-3.4%	1.4%	6.10	5.04	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	6	200	975	177	209	13	5%	1.7	18.1%	21.5%	-3.4%	1.4%	6.10	5.04	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marlin Willis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.52	18.5%	16.5%	2.8%	—	5.53	18.8%	2.8%	20	+0.01	—	—	—
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	80
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	77
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	77
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	75
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	75
Travis Bergen L 2022 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	19.3%	20.5%	1.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	143	74
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	74
Jake Rice L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	23.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.305	4.90	18.7%	4.0%	103	+0.49	3.16	199	74
R.C. Orlan L 2019 · 6.15 FIP	28	SU	6.15	13.8%	19.5%	3.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	1.71	206	74
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	74
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	74
Jack Leathersich L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	21.7%	19.8%	1.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	101	72
Joey Marciano L 2023 · 4.96 FIP	28	SU	4.96	19.3%	17.3%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	330	71
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	71
Kirby Bellow L 2018 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	13.6%	14.0%	1.3%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	108	70
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	70
Cam Booser L 2022 · 6.54 FIP	30	SU	6.54	20.8%	20.7%	4.7%	.350	4.52	24.3%	14.8%	157	-2.02	2.96	309	70
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	70
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	70
Evan Lee L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	26	SU	5.38	17.2%	25.3%	0.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	129	70