Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Indians | 8 | 4 | 18 | 82 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 50% | 2.2 | 14.9% | 16.8% | -1.8% | 1.7% | 2.04 | 4.90 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Indians | 8 | 4 | 18 | 82 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 50% | 2.2 | 22.0% | 13.4% | 8.5% | 1.2% | 2.04 | 3.67 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Indians | 14 | 14 | 58 | 241 | 48 | 23 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 13.5% | 11.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.97 | 4.11 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Indians | 14 | 14 | 58 | 241 | 48 | 23 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 0.8% | 2.97 | 3.08 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Indians | 13 | 6 | 39 | 175 | 47 | 16 | 7 | 46% | 3.0 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 6.52 | 4.56 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Indians | 13 | 6 | 39 | 175 | 47 | 16 | 7 | 46% | 3.0 | 26.9% | 9.1% | 17.7% | 4.0% | 6.52 | 4.26 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 16 | 1 | 30 | 145 | 32 | 16 | 1 | 6% | 1.9 | 15.0% | 13.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 5.04 | 4.22 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 16 | 1 | 30 | 145 | 32 | 16 | 1 | 6% | 1.9 | 22.1% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 0.7% | 5.04 | 3.00 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 17 | 0 | 30 | 144 | 42 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.8% | 17.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 3.56 | 4.25 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 17 | 0 | 30 | 144 | 42 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 29.2% | 13.9% | 15.3% | 1.4% | 3.56 | 3.17 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 56 | 225 | 70 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.2% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 2.59 | 5.85 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 56 | 225 | 70 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 31.1% | 11.6% | 19.6% | 3.1% | 2.59 | 3.62 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 69 | 266 | 70 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 1.83 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 69 | 266 | 70 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 26.3% | 7.5% | 18.8% | 1.9% | 1.83 | 2.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 29 | 0 | 29 | 139 | 32 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 18.9% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 6.14 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CLE | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 63 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CLE | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 99 | 435 | 95 | 53 | 13 | — | — | 21.9% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 21.4% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.16 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 64 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 64 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 82 | 0 | 86 | 365 | 80 | 35 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.13 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 81 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 173 | 25 | 329 | 1417 | 263 | 186 | 36 | 14% | 1.9 | 18.6% | 13.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 3.56 | 4.59 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 15 | 200 | 862 | 160 | 113 | 22 | 14% | 1.9 | 18.6% | 13.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 3.56 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Steven Pérez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.51 | 21.9% | 12.3% | 139 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 87 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 87 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 87 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 86 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 85 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.65 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .301 | 7.84 | 8.3% | -4.8% | 10 | +4.19 | 2.87 | 186 | 85 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.84 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.14 | 3.54 | 364 | 84 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 83 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.22 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 96 | +0.29 | 3.65 | 308 | 83 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 201 | 83 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 83 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.38 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .304 | 4.49 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 276 | +1.11 | 3.38 | 353 | 82 |
| Hayden Howard L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.77 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 200 | 82 |
| Brian Clark L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.85 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 248 | 82 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 82 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 82 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .382 | 3.44 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.48 | 2.84 | 206 | 82 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2029 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 81 |
| Braulio Lara L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 81 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |