Juan Sanchez
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 123
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%22.6%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants | 13 | 13 | 61 | 262 | 63 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.4% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 3.39 | 3.91 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants | 13 | 13 | 61 | 262 | 63 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 24.0% | 4.6% | 19.5% | 1.9% | 3.39 | 2.69 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 14 | 8 | 57 | 254 | 53 | 27 | 3 | 57% | 4.1 | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.77 | 4.49 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 14 | 8 | 57 | 254 | 53 | 27 | 3 | 57% | 4.1 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 1.2% | 3.77 | 3.34 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | San Jose Giants | 31 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 66 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.8% | 7.2% | 15.7% | 1.8% | 4.97 | 3.07 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | San Jose Giants | 31 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 66 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.8% | 6.1% | 24.8% | 1.4% | 4.97 | 2.03 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 40 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 75 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.8% | 14.9% | 10.9% | 1.4% | 3.76 | 3.55 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 40 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 75 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 33.5% | 12.9% | 20.5% | 1.3% | 3.76 | 2.64 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 74 | 303 | 80 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.0% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 2.1% | 3.03 | 3.76 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 74 | 303 | 80 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.4% | 9.9% | 16.5% | 1.7% | 3.03 | 3.03 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 23 | 0 | 34 | 149 | 35 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.7% | 19.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.93 | 4.65 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 23 | 0 | 34 | 149 | 35 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.5% | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 3.93 | 4.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 21 | 0 | 14 | 82 | 16 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 0.7 | 17.2% | 26.9% | -9.7% | 5.4% | 8.16 | 8.00 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 41 | 193 | 41 | 34 | 7 | — | — | 21.3% | 17.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.85 | 5.79 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.6% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.21 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 0 | 15 | 65 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.16 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 104 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 188 | 21 | 345 | 1488 | 297 | 181 | 31 | 11% | 1.8 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 3.92 | 4.10 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 12 | 200 | 863 | 172 | 105 | 18 | 11% | 1.8 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 3.92 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Sanchez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.54 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 26 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 86 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 85 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 5.10 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.65 | 4.28 | 127 | 84 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 83 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 83 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 83 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.22 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 96 | +0.29 | 3.65 | 308 | 83 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 82 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 3.96 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 25 | -0.18 | 3.26 | 128 | 82 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.13 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.78 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.65 | 4.13 | 265 | 82 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 82 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 25.3% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .284 | 5.07 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 42 | +0.50 | 3.33 | 152 | 81 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .338 | 3.46 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.54 | 1.78 | 560 | 81 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 81 |
| Erik Rivera L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 122 | 81 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .341 | 8.96 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.50 | 4.11 | 158 | 81 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 80 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 80 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .382 | 3.44 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.48 | 2.84 | 206 | 80 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 22.8% | 11.7% | 1.07 | 4.57 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |