Juan Sanchez — OGILVIE

Juan Sanchez P Sacramento River Cats

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%21.0%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	13	13	61	262	63	12	5	100%	4.7	16.4%	5.7%	10.6%	2.7%	3.39	3.91	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	13	13	61	262	63	12	5	100%	4.7	24.0%	4.6%	19.5%	1.9%	3.39	2.69	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	14	8	57	254	53	27	3	57%	4.1	14.2%	13.3%	0.9%	1.7%	3.77	4.49	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	14	8	57	254	53	27	3	57%	4.1	20.9%	10.6%	10.2%	1.2%	3.77	3.34	—
2021	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	31	0	51	214	66	13	3	0%	1.6	22.8%	7.2%	15.7%	1.8%	4.97	3.07	—
2021	20	A RAW	San Jose Giants	31	0	51	214	66	13	3	0%	1.6	30.8%	6.1%	24.8%	1.4%	4.97	2.03	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	40	0	53	224	75	29	3	0%	1.3	25.8%	14.9%	10.9%	1.5%	3.76	3.63	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	40	0	53	224	75	29	3	0%	1.3	33.5%	12.9%	20.5%	1.3%	3.76	2.64	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	74	303	80	30	5	0%	1.6	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	2.0%	3.03	3.66	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	74	303	80	30	5	0%	1.6	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	2.0%	3.03	3.66	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	74	303	80	30	5	0%	1.6	26.4%	9.9%	16.5%	1.7%	3.03	3.03	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	23	0	34	149	35	28	2	0%	1.5	19.5%	16.9%	2.6%	1.5%	3.93	4.40	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	23	0	34	149	35	28	2	0%	1.5	19.5%	16.9%	2.6%	1.5%	3.93	4.40	—
2024	23	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	23	0	34	149	35	28	2	0%	1.5	23.5%	18.8%	4.7%	1.3%	3.93	4.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	21	0	14	82	16	21	4	0%	0.7	16.2%	23.0%	-6.9%	5.4%	8.16	7.60	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	21	0	14	82	16	21	4	0%	0.7	16.2%	23.0%	-6.9%	5.4%	8.16	7.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	SF	21	0	14	82	16	21	4	0%	0.7	19.5%	25.6%	-6.1%	4.9%	8.16	7.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	29	0	31	130	28	16	4	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.77	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	14	0	15	63	14	8	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	13	8	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.39	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	107	27	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		188	21	345	1488	293	172	31	11%	1.8	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	2.1%	3.92	4.05	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	12	200	863	170	100	18	11%	1.8	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	2.1%	3.92	4.05	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	21.0%	12.8%	2.7%	—	4.77	21.4%	9.0%	31	-0.07	—	—	—
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	87
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	84
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	84
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	84
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	83
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	83
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	83
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	83
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	82
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	82
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	82
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	81
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	80
Hunter Schryver L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	19.2%	11.2%	1.6%	.335	4.47	19.5%	6.0%	80	+0.71	3.58	206	80
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.27	22.8%	8.8%	171	+0.08	3.22	198	80
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	80
Chazz Martinez L 2023 · 3.76 FIP	23	SU	3.76	22.2%	12.7%	1.7%	.361	3.43	20.5%	7.7%	135	-0.33	3.09	199	80
Matt Trowbridge L 2018 · 4.07 FIP	25	SU	4.07	19.2%	11.8%	2.0%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	106	79
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	20.7%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.62	21.8%	11.1%	110	+0.65	3.96	265	79
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.2%	12.6%	1.07	4.81
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10