Melvin Robles

P DSL Royals Fortuna

Age 19 LHP 5'11" / 150 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Royals Fo…	11	5	27	4.33	1.73	25.2%	6.1%	—	K 17.1% · BB 7.6% · FIP 2.62
2026	18	ROKDSL Royals Fo…	11	11	36	3.53	2.20	24.0%	9.1%	—	K 16.3% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.16
2027PROJ	19	MLB—	4	4	20	4.61	4.61	20.3%	10.1%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLB—	3	3	17	4.50	4.44	21.1%	9.6%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJordan Woods (age 20) · Johan Simon (age 20) · Brock Selvidge (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%20.3%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	5	27	115	29	7	0	45%	2.5	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	0.0%	4.33	2.62	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	5	27	115	29	7	0	45%	2.5	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	0.0%	4.33	2.62	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	5	27	115	29	7	0	45%	2.5	25.2%	6.1%	19.1%	0.0%	4.33	1.73	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	11	36	154	37	14	0	100%	3.2	16.3%	11.4%	5.0%	0.0%	3.53	3.16	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	11	36	154	37	14	0	100%	3.2	16.3%	11.4%	5.0%	0.0%	3.53	3.16	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	11	36	154	37	14	0	100%	3.2	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	0.0%	3.53	2.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	—	4	4	20	84	17	9	2	100%	5.0	20.3%	10.1%	10.1%	2.8%	4.61	4.61	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	6	6	34	142	30	14	4	100%	5.6	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	2.8%	4.50	4.44	+0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	3	3	17	72	15	7	2	100%	5.7	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	2.8%	4.50	4.44	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	17	70	15	7	2	100%	4.1	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	2.8%	4.50	4.06	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	181	85	24	100%	4.6	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	2.8%	4.50	4.06	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		22	16	63	269	45	26	0	73%	2.8	16.7%	9.8%	6.9%	0.0%	3.88	2.93	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	51	200	859	143	84	0	73%	2.8	16.7%	9.8%	6.9%	0.0%	3.88	2.93	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melvin Robles (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	20.3%	10.1%	2.8%	—	4.44	21.1%	11.5%	34	-0.17	—	—	—
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	89
Johan Simon L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	20	SP-	3.51	19.8%	10.2%	1.4%	.302	4.50	17.6%	1.1%	41	+0.99	3.45	178	87
Brock Selvidge L 2022 · 3.70 FIP	19	SP-	3.70	19.9%	11.7%	1.5%	.321	3.79	17.8%	7.6%	287	+0.09	3.07	330	80
Ethan Lindow L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	18	SP	4.33	19.1%	12.4%	2.3%	.329	2.95	19.8%	14.0%	111	-1.38	2.95	435	80
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	79
Yereny Teus L 2023 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.2%	12.0%	0.8%	.284	3.42	24.1%	11.1%	142	-0.04	2.63	185	79
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	4.98	17.7%	3.9%	349	+0.73	4.25	374	79
James Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	18	SP-	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	489	79
Dalton Lehnen L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	21	SP	3.95	19.8%	7.6%	2.8%	.398	4.49	15.8%	2.9%	189	+0.54	3.95	222	79
Sterling Patick L 2024 · 3.47 FIP	19	SP	3.47	16.0%	9.8%	0.9%	.295	4.55	19.2%	7.1%	188	+1.08	3.47	220	78
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	78
Ryan Rolison L 2018 · 3.88 FIP	21	SP	3.88	21.2%	9.2%	2.6%	.200	4.41	19.1%	11.5%	191	+0.53	3.81	390	78
Felipe De La Cruz L 2021 · 3.44 FIP	20	SP	3.44	16.1%	10.3%	0.7%	.282	3.77	20.3%	8.5%	245	+0.33	3.11	397	77
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	76
Elier Morillo L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	17	SP-	4.12	18.1%	12.7%	1.7%	.418	4.31	28.7%	8.3%	89	+0.19	2.67	115	76
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	76
Brady Aiken L 2016 · 3.79 FIP	19	SP	3.79	20.0%	13.7%	1.2%	.443	5.96	11.0%	-8.9%	132	+2.17	3.79	156	75
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	75
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	75
Rolando Gutierrez L 2022 · 3.53 FIP	20	SP-	3.53	14.9%	10.1%	0.8%	.248	4.39	13.7%	1.4%	70	+0.86	3.53	113	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	20.8%	9.8%	1.08	4.54
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*