Jan Cabrera

P FCL Cardinals

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 196 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2031

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#896ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKSTL	9	9	37	3.93	2.53	20.6%	6.5%	—	K 14.0% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.41
2026	21	MIX2 levels	17	9	61	4.28	3.74	22.5%	8.7%	—	K 15.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.02
2027PROJ	22	MLBSTL	—	—	0	4.89	4.89	17.9%	10.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSTL	4	4	24	4.60	4.52	19.7%	9.3%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSTL	6	6	34	4.46	4.37	20.7%	8.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsTanner Hall (age 22) · Noah Skirrow (age 23) · Dustin McGowan (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%17.9%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	9	37	155	32	10	1	100%	4.1	14.0%	8.1%	6.0%	0.9%	3.93	3.41	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	9	37	155	32	10	1	100%	4.1	14.0%	8.1%	6.0%	0.9%	3.93	3.41	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	9	9	37	155	32	10	1	100%	4.1	20.6%	6.5%	14.2%	0.6%	3.93	2.53	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	9	61	276	62	24	7	53%	3.6	15.6%	10.6%	5.0%	3.4%	4.28	5.02	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	9	61	276	62	24	7	53%	3.6	15.6%	10.6%	5.0%	3.4%	4.28	5.02	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	9	61	276	62	24	7	53%	3.6	22.5%	8.7%	13.8%	2.5%	4.28	3.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.9%	10.0%	8.0%	3.0%	4.89	4.89	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	48	204	40	19	6	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.3%	10.3%	3.0%	4.71	4.63	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	48	204	42	18	6	100%	6.0	20.7%	8.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.57	4.48	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	45	190	40	17	6	100%	5.6	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	2.9%	4.47	4.41	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	45	191	41	17	6	100%	5.7	21.5%	8.7%	12.8%	2.9%	4.41	4.38	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	44	186	40	16	6	100%	6.3	21.5%	8.8%	12.7%	3.0%	4.42	4.42	+0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	STL	4	4	24	101	20	9	3	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.3%	10.3%	2.8%	4.60	4.52	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	34	144	30	13	4	100%	5.7	20.7%	8.9%	11.7%	2.7%	4.46	4.37	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	37	156	33	14	4	100%	6.2	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	2.7%	4.36	4.30	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	40	169	36	15	5	100%	5.7	21.5%	8.7%	12.8%	2.7%	4.30	4.27	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	40	169	36	15	5	100%	5.7	21.5%	8.8%	12.7%	2.8%	4.31	4.31	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	173	732	154	65	20	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	2.7%	4.38	3.96	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	178	75	23	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	2.7%	4.38	3.96	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		26	18	98	431	65	42	11	69%	3.8	15.1%	9.7%	5.3%	2.5%	4.15	4.44	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	37	200	883	133	86	22	69%	3.8	15.1%	9.7%	5.3%	2.5%	4.15	4.44	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Cardinals · 43 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.61 (+1.40)K% 24.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.73%	—	×0.680	16.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.06%	—	×1.250	10.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.01%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 18 IPFIP 4.70 → 5.86 (+1.17)K% 17.8% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.78%	—	×0.740	13.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.33%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.70 → 5.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Cardinals · 37 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.41 (+0.88)K% 20.6% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.65%	—	×0.680	14.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.250	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷1.047	×1.400	0.86%

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jan Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	17.9%	10.0%	3.0%	—	4.51	20.5%	11.5%	142	-0.38	—	—	—
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	89
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	89
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	89
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	88
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	86
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	85
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	84
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	84
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	83
Luke Prokopec R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP-	4.49	13.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.262	5.44	14.2%	7.6%	210	+0.95	4.49	231	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	83
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	83
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.5%	7.8%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	82
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	82
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	82
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	82
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	82
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	82
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	45	20.5%	9.1%	1.15	4.57
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*