Jan Cabrera — OGILVIE

Jan Cabrera P DSL Cardinals

+0.2 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 196 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2028

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.5%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%13.4%

IP31

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2028

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	20	ROK	DSL Cardinals	9	9	37	155	32	10	1	14.0%	8.1%	0.8%	3.93	3.40	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	STL	31	—	31	132	30	12	4	22.5%	9.1%	2.9%	4.33	4.33	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	STL	33	—	33	138	33	12	4	23.5%	8.6%	2.9%	4.22	4.15	+0.3
2028	23	MLB	STL	34	—	34	144	35	12	4	24.2%	8.3%	2.8%	4.11	4.04	+0.4
2029	24	MLB	STL	35	—	35	147	36	12	4	24.7%	8.1%	2.8%	4.02	3.96	+0.4
2030	25	MLB	STL	35	—	35	149	37	12	4	25.1%	8.0%	2.8%	3.96	3.91	+0.4
2031	26	MLB	STL	35	—	35	149	38	12	4	25.3%	8.0%	2.8%	3.92	3.89	+0.4
2032	27	MLB	STL	35	—	35	147	37	12	4	25.3%	8.0%	2.8%	3.91	3.90	+0.4
2033	28	MLB	STL	34	—	34	145	37	12	4	25.2%	8.1%	2.8%	3.92	3.93	+0.4
2034	29	MLB	STL	34	—	34	142	36	12	4	25.1%	8.1%	2.9%	3.95	3.97	+0.4
2035	30	MLB	STL	33	—	33	138	34	11	4	24.9%	8.2%	2.9%	4.00	4.03	+0.3
2036	31	MLB	STL	32	—	32	133	33	11	4	24.7%	8.3%	3.0%	4.06	4.11	+0.3
2037	32	MLB	STL	30	—	30	128	31	11	4	24.4%	8.5%	3.1%	4.14	4.19	+0.3
2038	33	MLB	STL	29	—	29	122	29	11	4	24.1%	8.7%	3.2%	4.23	4.29	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			9	9	37	155	22	12	1	14.0%	8.1%	0.8%	3.93	3.40	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—			49	49	200	845	120	65	5	14.0%	8.1%	0.8%	3.93	3.40	+4.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jan Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	22.5%	9.1%	2.9%	—	4.05	24.2%	15.8%	102	-0.28	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.19	181	93
Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP	22	SU	4.20	21.9%	9.0%	3.3%	.278	5.95	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.75	4.20	104	93
Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	22	SU	3.55	22.2%	7.9%	2.4%	.324	3.08	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.47	3.07	194	92
Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.62	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.22	4.40	140	91
Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	22	SU	3.33	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.80	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.47	3.33	286	90
Kenny Oakley R 2027 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.89	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.39	3.18	144	90
Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.88	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.01	3.00	318	89
Andrew Hoffmann R 2026 · 3.15 FIP	21	SU	3.15	23.6%	8.1%	1.8%	.275	4.89	19.0%	8.7%	311	+1.74	3.15	395	89
Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.96	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.10	3.46	146	89
Jonathan Stiever R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	21	SU	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.29	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.10	4.28	247	89
Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	89
Collin Kober R 2027 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	89
Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.18	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.58	2.98	211	89
Kevin Coulter R 2027 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.54	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.27	3.27	128	88
Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	88
Jimmy Joyce R 2027 · 3.78 FIP	22	SU	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.02	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.24	3.40	259	88
Scott Williams R 2026 · 3.36 FIP	21	SU	3.36	22.0%	8.6%	1.9%	.238	3.68	19.3%	10.5%	76	+0.32	2.89	119	88
Caleb Sampen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	22	SU	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	88
Devon Roedahl R 2027 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.67	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.73	3.94	122	88
Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.3	$2M	+$1.0M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M