Jan Cabrera
P
FCL Cardinals
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 196 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 22 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%22.5%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 9 | 9 | 37 | 155 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 14.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 0.8% | 3.93 | 3.39 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 9 | 9 | 37 | 155 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 20.6% | 6.5% | 14.2% | 0.6% | 3.93 | 2.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 10 | 6 | 37 | 158 | 39 | 12 | 2 | 60% | 3.7 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 1.8% | 2.43 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | STL | 4 | 4 | 22 | 92 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.5% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.5% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.33 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | STL | — | — | 59 | 250 | 60 | 20 | 5 | — | — | 23.9% | 8.1% | 15.7% | 1.9% | 3.14 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | STL | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | STL | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.77 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 71 | 18 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 19 | 15 | 74 | 313 | 48 | 28 | 4 | 79% | 3.9 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 3.18 | 3.63 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 41 | 200 | 850 | 131 | 75 | 11 | 79% | 3.9 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 3.18 | 3.63 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jan Cabrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 22.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.15 | 23.5% | 14.9% | 23 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 84 |
| Dualvert Gutierrez R 2025 · 3.14 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.14 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .352 | 4.24 | 15.9% | 2.2% | 78 | +1.10 | 3.14 | 130 | 83 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 83 |
| Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 83 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 83 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 81 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 81 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 80 |
| JR Ritchie R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.94 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .260 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 234 | +0.53 | 1.00 | 280 | 80 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 80 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 80 |
| Peyton Remy R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .280 | 4.82 | 16.3% | 5.2% | 140 | +1.25 | 3.57 | 286 | 80 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 80 |
| Alejandro Rivera R 2024 · 3.30 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.30 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 116 | 80 |
| Ricky Castro R 2029 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 79 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.82 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.56 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 243 | -0.26 | 4.30 | 318 | 79 |
| José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 79 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 79 |
| Logan Gragg R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 79 |
| Jared Karros R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 79 |