Jan Cabrera — OGILVIE

Jan Cabrera P FCL Cardinals

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 196 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%19.8%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	9	37	155	32	10	1	100%	4.1	14.0%	8.1%	6.0%	0.9%	3.93	3.41	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	9	37	155	32	10	1	100%	4.1	14.0%	8.1%	6.0%	0.9%	3.93	3.41	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	9	9	37	155	32	10	1	100%	4.1	20.6%	6.5%	14.2%	0.6%	3.93	2.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	17	9	61	276	62	24	7	53%	3.6	15.6%	10.6%	5.0%	3.4%	4.28	5.02	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	17	9	61	276	62	24	7	53%	3.6	15.6%	10.6%	5.0%	3.4%	4.28	5.02	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	STL	12	6	43	186	46	15	4	50%	3.6	24.7%	8.1%	16.7%	2.2%	2.95	3.21	—
2026	21	A RAW	STL	5	3	18	90	16	9	3	60%	3.7	17.8%	10.0%	7.8%	3.3%	7.36	4.70	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	63	265	56	21	8	100%	5.7	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	2.9%	4.34	4.27	+0.5
2028	23	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	65	275	61	21	8	100%	5.9	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	2.8%	4.23	4.15	+0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	67	282	64	22	8	100%	5.6	22.7%	7.6%	15.1%	2.8%	4.14	4.07	+0.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	68	285	66	22	8	100%	5.6	23.1%	7.6%	15.6%	2.8%	4.07	4.02	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	68	285	66	21	8	100%	6.1	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	2.8%	4.03	4.00	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	66	281	65	21	8	100%	6.0	23.3%	7.6%	15.7%	2.8%	4.03	4.03	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	64	272	63	21	8	100%	5.9	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	2.9%	4.08	4.12	+0.6
2027	22	MLB CTX	STL	5	5	31	131	28	10	3	100%	6.2	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	2.7%	4.23	4.16	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	47	198	44	15	5	100%	5.9	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	2.6%	4.12	4.04	+0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	55	232	53	18	6	100%	5.5	22.7%	7.6%	15.1%	2.6%	4.03	3.96	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	60	253	59	19	7	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.6%	15.6%	2.6%	3.96	3.91	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	62	262	61	20	7	100%	6.2	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	2.6%	3.92	3.89	+0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	62	262	61	20	7	100%	6.2	23.3%	7.6%	15.7%	2.6%	3.92	3.92	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	60	253	59	20	7	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	2.7%	3.97	4.01	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	377	1591	364	122	42	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.7%	15.2%	2.6%	4.00	3.59	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	193	65	22	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.7%	15.2%	2.6%	4.00	3.59	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		26	18	98	431	65	42	11	69%	3.8	15.1%	9.7%	5.3%	2.5%	4.15	4.44	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	37	200	883	133	86	22	69%	3.8	15.1%	9.7%	5.3%	2.5%	4.15	4.44	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jan Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	19.8%	8.3%	2.9%	—	4.16	22.0%	14.2%	194	-0.30	—	—	—
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	85
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	83
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	83
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	83
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	83
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	82
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	587	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
Jesus Camargo R 2018 · 3.44 FIP	22	SP-	3.44	16.2%	6.4%	1.6%	.290	3.93	17.3%	8.5%	73	+0.49	2.78	164	80
Miguel Rodriguez R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	20	SP-	3.30	19.5%	10.1%	1.0%	.329	5.64	19.9%	7.7%	108	+2.34	2.60	272	80
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	79
David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP-	4.01	20.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.267	4.79	17.4%	7.1%	184	+0.78	3.38	269	79
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	79
Francys Peguero R 2016 · 3.38 FIP	20	SP-	3.38	17.0%	4.6%	2.1%	.305	4.93	15.6%	9.0%	116	+1.55	2.85	293	79
Garrett Hill R 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	19.2%	7.7%	1.7%	.390	3.16	21.6%	11.0%	200	-0.23	3.02	539	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	60	22.6%	7.7%	1.10	4.14
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19