Ezequiel AparicioC DSL LAD Mega
Age 18 R/R 5'9" / 180 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 45 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .287 / .298
PA45
HR1
K%29
BB%9
BABIP266
ISO99
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -4.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.01.32.60.30.81.31.71.92.02.02.02.11.91.7+$120M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+2.0$10M+$10M
2033Pre-Arb$1.0M+2.0$9M+$9M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+2.0$9M+$8M
2035Arb-1$4M+2.1$8M+$7M
2036Arb-2$6M+1.9$7M+$5M
2037Arb-3$8M+1.7$6M+$3M
Totals $22M $50M +$42M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202517 ROKDSL LAD Bautista 6855 9101 6177 21 164324236560 73216 259 249 49
202517 ROKDSL LAD Bautista 6851 12201 10127 21 235426333760 98289 1815 366 139
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD18 ROKLAD 6858 10101 7223 41 172294241535 69257 3210 263 59 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.0
YTD18 ROKLAD 6854 14202 11153 41 259412407819 148324 2216 377 147 +4 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.7
ROS18 ROKLAD 0% 4540 8101 4131 10 198287298584 99285 299 273 67 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.1
ROS18 MLBLAD 0% 01 0000 000 00 282 250 49 +0 +0
FULL18 ROKLAD 6859 10101 7223 41 169294237531 68250 3210 263 59 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.0
TOT18 ROKLAD 11398 18202 11354 51 183291264556 81261 3110 267 62 -5 +1 +0 +2 +3 0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202719 MLBLAD 34% 159141 31513 13434 31 220304333637 113289 278 284 76 -4 +0 +0 +3 +5 0.3
202820 MLBLAD 48% 304268 601016 25818 51 224309336645 112291 278 291 81 -6 +1 +0 +5 +9 0.8
202921 MLBLAD 54% 417368 821328 3510911 72 223309334643 111292 268 296 85 -7 +1 +0 +7 +12 1.3
203022 MLBLAD 57% 497439 9916211 4212913 82 226312346658 121293 268 299 87 -7 +1 +0 +9 +14 1.7
203123 MLBLAD 58% 520458 10417311 4413413 92 227313349662 122294 268 302 89 -6 +1 +0 +9 +15 1.9
203224 MLBLAD 57% 520458 10617312 4413413 92 231317360677 129295 268 303 90 -6 +1 +0 +9 +15 2.0
203325 MLBLAD 57% 520458 10617312 4413413 92 231317360677 129295 268 304 91 -5 +1 +0 +9 +15 2.0
203426 MLBLAD 57% 520458 10617312 4413413 92 231317360677 129294 268 305 92 -5 +1 +0 +9 +15 2.0
203527 MLBLAD 55% 520457 10517312 4513413 92 230317359675 129294 269 305 92 -5 +1 +0 +9 +15 2.1
203628 MLBLAD 55% 520457 10417212 4513513 82 228315352667 125294 269 304 91 -5 +1 -1 +9 +15 1.9
203729 MLBLAD 53% 520456 10417212 4613613 82 228317353670 125293 269 302 89 -6 +1 -1 +9 +15 1.7
203830 MLBLAD 53% 520456 10216211 4613713 72 224313340653 116292 269 299 87 -8 +1 -2 +9 +15 1.5
203931 MLBLAD 52% 504442 9815211 4413513 61 222311339650 118289 279 295 84 -9 +1 -3 +9 +14 1.2
204032 MLBLAD 52% 489431 9314210 4313212 51 216305327632 111286 279 290 80 -11 +1 -4 +9 +14 0.9
204133 MLBLAD 56% 473417 881329 4113112 41 211300317617 106282 289 283 75 -13 +0 -4 +8 +13 0.5
204234 MLBLAD 52% 430379 781128 3712111 21 206295309604 103276 289 275 69 -15 +0 -5 +8 +12 -0.0
204335 MLBLAD 47% 368325 64916 311079 10 197285286571 89270 298 266 62 -16 +0 -6 +7 +10 -0.4
202719 MLBLAD 34% 5549 11201 5151 10 224309327636 102285 279 262 59 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.0
202820 MLBLAD 48% 147130 29513 12394 31 223308346654 123287 278 269 64 -6 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.1
202921 MLBLAD 54% 226199 43714 19596 41 216304322625 106288 268 274 68 -8 +0 +0 +4 +6 0.3
203022 MLBLAD 57% 281248 55916 24737 51 222308339647 117289 269 277 70 -9 +1 +0 +5 +8 0.4
203123 MLBLAD 58% 299264 591016 25778 51 223310337647 114290 268 279 72 -10 +1 +0 +5 +8 0.5
203224 MLBLAD 57% 296261 58916 25768 51 222310333643 111291 268 281 73 -9 +1 +0 +5 +8 0.5
203325 MLBLAD 57% 295260 58917 25768 51 223311346657 123291 268 282 74 -9 +1 +0 +5 +8 0.6
203426 MLBLAD 57% 294259 58917 25768 51 224312347659 124291 269 282 74 -9 +1 +0 +5 +8 0.6
203527 MLBLAD 55% 289255 57917 25757 51 224310349659 125290 269 282 74 -8 +1 +0 +5 +8 0.6
203628 MLBLAD 55% 286252 56916 25747 51 222310337647 115290 269 281 74 -9 +1 -0 +5 +8 0.5
203729 MLBLAD 53% 278245 55916 24737 41 224312343654 118289 269 280 72 -9 +0 -1 +5 +8 0.4
203830 MLBLAD 53% 274241 53816 24727 41 220309336645 116288 269 277 70 -9 +0 -1 +5 +8 0.3
203931 MLBLAD 52% 263231 50815 23707 31 216307325631 108285 279 273 67 -10 +0 -1 +5 +7 0.1
204032 MLBLAD 52% 254224 47715 22696 21 210298317615 107282 279 268 63 -11 +0 -2 +5 +7 -0.1
204133 MLBLAD 56% 265233 49715 23737 20 210300313614 103278 289 262 58 -12 +0 -2 +5 +8 -0.2
204234 MLBLAD 52% 221195 40614 19625 10 205292308600 103273 289 254 53 -12 +0 -3 +4 +6 -0.4
204335 MLBLAD 47% 173152 30413 15504 10 197287296583 99267 299 245 46 -11 +0 -3 +3 +5 -0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career 41963699 8081271687 3601109107 6013 218306332638 114286 269 274 68 -152 +7 -13 +75 +119 3.6
/ 162G 650573 12520213 5617217 92 218307328635 110287 269 274 68 -24 +1 -2 +12 +18 0.6
Career 79146963 154724336168 6792096205 11227 222310340650 118291 269 295 84 -142 +12 -25 +141 +224 21.4
/ 162G 650572 12720314 5617217 92 222310341651 119290 269 295 84 -12 +1 -2 +12 +18 1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202517 ROKDSL LAD Bautista 6851 12201 10127 21 235426333760 98289 1815 366 139 +3 +0 +2 0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22
career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA
123,381976227312387+60+7722.521.6
/162664191+11.9+15.14.4pk7: 21
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24
career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA
113,088538241318351+55+5716.616.1
/162664112+11.9+12.33.6pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14
career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA
114,0091346234301398+72+716.915.7
/162664221+11.9+1.22.8pk7: 14
#4Brad Ausmuslast yr '10
career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA
114,2963939244319326+39+4312.412.0
/16266466+6.1+6.61.9pk7: 12
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA
72,8326234238305374+28+3311.611.6
/162664158+6.7+7.72.7pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons
104,2629060224307342+70+4012.39.9
/162664149+10.9+6.21.9pk7: 8
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA
72,830452244301351+21+317.27.2
/162664110+4.9+7.21.7pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Ezequiel Aparicio (OGILVIE) 18 183/291/264 81261 25 31% 10% 62 +0.1
Victor Heredia
2018 · A
18 45 38→50 49→30 42 211/275/293 82307 66 31% 7% 57 -1.2 221/268/323 102290 94 26% 5% 62 -0.9 221/264/32610528110125%4%63-0.3
Eddys Leonard
2019 · A
18 41→47 41→55 48→50 48 200/282/301 101267 914 27% 9% 64 -0.8 211/283/328 117302 118 32% 8% 71 -0.3 225/292/37815329318428%6%84+0.6
Michael Arroyo
2023 · A
18 48→42 42→50 44→50 45 227/318/334 107303 87 26% 7% 88 +0.9 214/310/343 129287 128 28% 8% 88 +0.9 219/307/369150281181327%8%90+0.9
Jesus Rodriguez
2021 · A
19 46→55 42→45 49→50 46 224/285/337 113288 99 25% 8% 72 -0.2 235/300/339 104298 612 22% 8% 80 +0.4 254/315/36210830991620%7%88+0.7
Ricardo Cova
2022 · A
18 44 38→50 47→55 44 212/278/287 75273 69 24% 6% 57 -1.2 209/268/294 85323 715 35% 6% 55 -1.4 235/286/365130286142022%5%78+0.1
Ramon Mendoza
2019 · A
18 46→51 41→45 48→45 46 220/292/328 108287 74 25% 7% 74 -0.1 209/280/297 88296 54 29% 7% 61 -1.0 232/306/34711631011327%9%82+0.3
Dilson Herrera
2012 · A
18 46→56 39→50 50 47 218/290/315 98283 413 23% 7% 70 -0.3 228/279/361 133299 1212 27% 6% 77 +0.1 258/308/400143315151323%6%96+1.3
Jorge Mateo
2013 · A
18 44→46 40→50 51→65 48 211/282/302 91281 610 26% 9% 63 -0.9 210/268/306 96286 734 27% 7% 58 -1.2 222/263/355133288134927%5%66-0.2
Ronarsy Ledesma
2011 · A
18 44 44→45 53→50 41 217/277/335 118288 119 28% 6% 69 -0.4 219/286/320 101286 611 24% 6% 69 -0.4 226/280/33711129161123%4%69-0.2
Jett Williams
2023 · A
19 45→46 41→45 56→55 43 214/285/313 99288 714 27% 7% 68 -0.5 203/314/320 117299 923 31% 12% 83 +0.6 201/310/335134289102630%12%81+0.3
Ravel Santana
2010 · A
18 39 42→50 48→55 44 192/269/294 102269 109 31% 8% 56 -1.3 219/288/360 141283 1615 27% 8% 81 +0.4 220/291/383163271202026%8%85+0.3
Aroon Escobar
2023 · A
18 43→46 38→45 47→55 49 203/297/279 76256 612 22% 8% 66 -0.6 211/299/308 97254 916 20% 9% 72 -0.2 216/299/322106259121921%8%75-0.0
Yohan Matos
2015 · A
18 44 43→45 51→45 42 216/276/330 114300 108 30% 7% 68 -0.5 192/252/275 83305 68 36% 7% 43 -2.2 166/241/2316428901139%8%24-0.7
Ronaldo Hernández
2016 · A
18 44 37→55 50→45 43 208/271/281 73270 46 23% 6% 53 -1.5 241/286/357 116275 125 17% 5% 79 +0.3 241/284/37313127416518%5%80+0.2
Jonathan Galvez
2009 · A
18 45→46 39→50 51→55 53 209/310/290 81290 79 27% 11% 73 -0.1 209/281/326 117306 1114 33% 8% 69 -0.4 230/282/341111315101529%6%69-0.3
Jeferson Quero
2022 · A
19 48→42 43→50 47→45 50 230/306/345 115283 910 21% 8% 85 +0.7 221/273/345 124289 148 27% 6% 70 -0.3 225/289/37014526918423%7%82+0.3
Aderlin Rodríguez
2010 · A
18 46→47 39→60 46→30 42 217/277/301 85310 67 31% 7% 60 -1.0 217/253/369 152263 193 26% 4% 69 -0.4 238/283/42718828825127%4%94+0.9
Francisco Herrera
2012 · A
18 46 40→45 47→30 49 220/280/315 95261 78 19% 7% 66 -0.6 225/284/324 99267 95 19% 6% 69 -0.4 225/284/3209526010317%6%67-0.2
Luis Torrens
2014 · A
18 42→47 36→55 49→30 45 196/262/257 61277 35 29% 8% 43 -2.2 204/277/283 79275 65 26% 8% 56 -1.3 231/286/39516429821029%7%87+0.4
Edward Duran
2022 · A
18 49→45 37→40 49→50 46 231/297/312 81291 39 21% 7% 72 -0.2 217/290/287 70281 28 22% 8% 63 -0.9 225/304/305793045825%8%70-0.2