Kenyer Penaloza — OGILVIE

Kenyer Penaloza P DSL Royals Ventura

Age 17 RHP 5'11" / 172 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%20.3%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	21	101	19	9	0	0%	1.9	12.8%	11.1%	1.7%	0.0%	5.91	3.43	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	21	101	19	9	0	0%	1.9	12.8%	11.1%	1.7%	0.0%	5.91	3.43	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	21	101	19	9	0	0%	1.9	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	0.0%	5.91	2.58	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	11	37	148	23	12	1	100%	3.4	10.6%	10.1%	0.4%	0.9%	3.16	4.01	—
YTD	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	11	37	148	23	12	1	100%	3.4	10.6%	10.1%	0.4%	0.9%	3.16	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	17	ROK RAW	KC	11	11	37	148	23	12	1	100%	3.4	15.5%	8.1%	7.4%	0.7%	3.16	3.19	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	18	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	38	160	34	16	5	100%	4.8	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	2.9%	4.57	4.52	+0.2
2027	18	MLB CTX	KC	4	4	19	80	17	8	2	100%	4.8	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	2.9%	4.57	4.52	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	19	79	17	8	2	100%	4.7	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	2.9%	4.57	4.14	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	42	200	844	182	86	21	100%	4.7	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	2.9%	4.57	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		22	11	58	249	29	26	1	50%	2.7	11.5%	10.5%	0.9%	0.6%	4.17	3.78	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	38	200	854	98	90	5	50%	2.7	11.5%	10.5%	0.9%	0.6%	4.17	3.78	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kenyer Penaloza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	20.3%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.52	21.1%	11.3%	38	-0.17	—	—	—
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	84
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	84
Jose Cedeno R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	17	SP-	4.66	15.3%	9.7%	3.0%	.271	3.39	21.5%	12.9%	88	-1.27	2.80	123	83
Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	18	SW	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.08	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.23	3.32	274	82
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	82
Bryan Perez R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	17	SP-	4.32	18.2%	9.5%	2.8%	.289	4.60	16.6%	5.2%	160	+0.28	4.14	211	82
Heisell Baro R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	17	SP-	4.37	19.0%	11.9%	2.5%	.196	5.91	15.8%	-1.4%	61	+1.54	4.25	105	81
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	80
Moisés Chace R 2021 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP-	3.77	20.5%	13.0%	1.4%	.387	4.55	24.2%	6.9%	208	+0.78	3.77	247	80
Luis Araujo R 2015 · 3.80 FIP	18	SP-	3.80	16.1%	11.0%	1.2%	.342	3.37	15.7%	7.5%	62	-0.43	2.85	135	80
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	78
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	78
Jose Espada R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	18	SP-	4.42	15.5%	7.4%	3.1%	.234	5.09	9.6%	3.5%	53	+0.67	4.09	355	78
Robert Colina R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	17	SP-	3.82	17.4%	7.8%	2.2%	.305	3.82	16.6%	7.6%	107	-0.00	3.25	266	78
Bryan Rivera R 2022 · 5.22 FIP	17	SP-	5.22	16.2%	12.6%	3.5%	.333	4.63	18.3%	2.8%	199	-0.59	4.13	238	77
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	77
Wilmy Sanchez R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	18	SW	3.87	23.0%	12.9%	1.9%	.316	4.24	21.5%	3.8%	148	+0.37	3.31	218	77
Michell Miliano R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	17	SP-	4.45	16.5%	13.5%	1.9%	.340	5.90	18.8%	-3.7%	49	+1.45	4.42	205	77
Eric Prado R 2023 · 4.15 FIP	17	SP-	4.15	16.6%	11.5%	1.8%	.222	7.05	14.8%	-0.5%	90	+2.90	4.15	131	77
Dahian Santos R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP-	4.91	24.2%	10.1%	4.7%	.316	4.72	25.1%	10.2%	161	-0.19	4.57	197	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	20.9%	10.0%	1.11	4.60
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64