Bryan Rivera — OGILVIE

Bryan Rivera P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

+0.0 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2032

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.3%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%9.2%

IP71

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2032

K†5065

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	7	5	24	109	26	11	3	16.2%	12.6%	3.4%	5.62	5.20	-0.1
2023	18	ROK	DSL Brewers 2	12	12	53	213	63	24	5	20.1%	14.1%	1.3%	3.57	3.90	+0.6
2024	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	18	12	73	329	80	40	4	17.0%	14.9%	1.9%	5.28	4.57	+0.4
2025	20	A	Carolina Mudcats	25	3	73	339	84	49	8	18.3%	17.1%	2.6%	5.82	5.14	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	3	0	3	17	2	4	0	—	—	—	20.25	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	MIL	13	13	71	299	64	36	9	21.3%	12.1%	2.8%	4.77	4.77	+0.2
2026 Total	21	MLB	MIL	—	—	74	316	66	40	9	20.8%	12.7%	2.7%	5.33	4.60	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	MIL	14	14	74	314	71	34	9	22.4%	10.8%	2.8%	4.59	4.49	+0.5
2028	23	MLB	MIL	14	14	77	326	76	33	9	23.2%	10.0%	2.8%	4.42	4.31	+0.7
2029	24	MLB	MIL	14	14	79	334	80	32	9	23.8%	9.5%	2.8%	4.28	4.18	+0.8
2030	25	MLB	MIL	15	15	80	338	82	31	9	24.2%	9.2%	2.7%	4.18	4.11	+0.9
2031	26	MLB	MIL	16	16	87	368	90	34	10	24.4%	9.1%	2.7%	4.12	4.08	+1.1
2032	27	MLB	MIL	16	16	90	382	93	35	11	24.4%	9.2%	2.8%	4.10	4.09	+1.2
2033	28	MLB	MIL	17	17	91	384	94	35	11	24.3%	9.2%	2.8%	4.11	4.12	+1.1
2034	29	MLB	MIL	16	16	89	376	91	35	11	24.2%	9.3%	2.8%	4.14	4.16	+1.1
2035	30	MLB	MIL	16	16	86	364	88	34	11	24.0%	9.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.23	+0.9
2036	31	MLB	MIL	15	15	83	352	84	33	10	23.8%	9.5%	3.0%	4.26	4.30	+0.8
2037	32	MLB	MIL	15	15	80	338	86	30	10	25.5%	8.9%	3.0%	4.17	4.12	+0.9
2038	33	MLB	MIL	14	14	76	323	88	27	10	27.2%	8.2%	3.1%	4.04	3.95	+1.0
2039	34	MLB	MIL	13	13	73	307	82	26	10	26.8%	8.4%	3.2%	4.05	4.06	+0.8
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			65	32	226	1007	181	154	21	17.9%	15.3%	2.1%	5.26	4.70	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—			58	28	200	892	160	136	19	17.9%	15.3%	2.1%	5.26	4.70	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	21.3%	12.1%	2.8%	—	4.32	23.2%	13.1%	231	-0.45	—	—	—
Jake Lyons R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	91
Kohl Franklin R 2027 · 5.27 FIP	22	SW	5.27	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.64	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.37	5.27	174	91
Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	90
Jhonny Polanco R 2028 · 4.74 FIP	23	SW	4.74	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.09	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.65	4.09	116	90
Luis Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	21	SW	4.31	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.59	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.72	3.45	535	90
Khristian Curtis R 2027 · 5.50 FIP	22	SW	5.50	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.57	19.5%	8.6%	122	-0.93	4.45	198	90
Nick Garcia R 2027 · 4.54 FIP	22	SW	4.54	18.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.274	5.03	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.49	4.28	355	90
Aaron Hernandez R 2027 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.77	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.05	4.61	194	89
Frank German R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	21	SW	4.99	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.60	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.39	3.09	218	89
Josh White R 2027 · 5.09 FIP	22	SW	5.09	17.7%	13.9%	3.1%	.244	2.57	29.9%	19.6%	126	-2.52	1.89	191	89
Alec Barger R 2028 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	89
Jared Lyons R 2027 · 4.46 FIP	22	SW	4.46	20.1%	15.3%	2.0%	.345	3.71	19.8%	9.0%	115	-0.75	3.28	169	88
Tyler Vogel R 2027 · 4.87 FIP	22	SW	4.87	23.4%	14.3%	3.5%	.305	4.25	18.8%	7.4%	82	-0.62	3.84	147	88
Beck Way R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	21	SW	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.77	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.24	2.40	395	88
Juan Mota R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	21	SW	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.07	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.79	3.89	279	88
Ryan Cardona R 2027 · 5.19 FIP	22	SW	5.19	20.9%	17.7%	2.9%	.274	4.24	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.95	3.54	367	88
Mario Alcantara R 2027 · 4.84 FIP	22	SW	4.84	16.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.292	4.63	17.0%	0.9%	97	-0.21	4.32	171	88
Matt Keating R 2027 · 4.37 FIP	22	SW	4.37	23.3%	14.8%	2.5%	.346	4.44	22.2%	8.8%	118	+0.07	3.38	184	87
William Kempner R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	87
Nolberto Henriquez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	21	SW	4.85	16.0%	13.4%	2.6%	.305	5.51	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.66	4.85	108	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.2	$11M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.1	$11M	+$9M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.0	$10M	+$8M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.9	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$10M		$51M	+$42M