Bryan Rivera — OGILVIE

Bryan Rivera P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%17.3%

BB%18.2%

K-BB%-0.9%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	7	5	24	109	26	11	3	71%	3.4	16.2%	12.6%	3.6%	3.5%	5.62	5.22	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	7	5	24	109	26	11	3	71%	3.4	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	2.8%	5.62	3.93	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	12	12	53	213	63	24	5	100%	4.4	20.1%	14.1%	6.0%	1.7%	3.57	4.13	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	12	12	53	213	63	24	5	100%	4.4	20.1%	14.1%	6.0%	1.7%	3.57	4.13	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	12	12	53	213	63	24	5	100%	4.4	29.6%	11.3%	18.3%	2.3%	3.57	3.31	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	73	329	80	40	4	67%	4.1	17.0%	14.9%	2.2%	1.8%	5.28	4.53	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	73	329	80	40	4	67%	4.1	17.0%	14.9%	2.2%	1.8%	5.28	4.53	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	12	73	329	80	40	4	67%	4.1	24.3%	12.2%	12.2%	1.2%	5.28	3.26	—
2025	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	25	3	73	339	84	49	8	12%	2.9	18.3%	17.1%	1.3%	2.5%	5.82	5.10	—
2025	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	25	3	73	339	84	49	8	12%	2.9	18.3%	17.1%	1.3%	2.5%	5.82	5.10	—
2025	20	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	25	3	73	339	84	49	8	12%	2.9	24.8%	14.5%	10.3%	2.4%	5.82	4.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	9	0	15	81	11	13	3	0%	1.7	10.5%	18.5%	-8.0%	4.6%	9.39	7.10	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	9	0	15	81	11	13	3	0%	1.7	10.5%	18.5%	-8.0%	4.6%	9.39	7.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	MIL	9	0	15	81	11	13	3	0%	1.7	13.6%	16.0%	-2.5%	3.7%	9.39	6.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIL	66	0	69	293	55	46	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	15.7%	3.1%	2.8%	5.54	5.41	-0.6
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIL	68	0	72	304	60	43	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.1%	5.8%	2.8%	5.25	5.10	-0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIL	70	0	74	311	64	41	9	0%	1.1	20.6%	13.1%	7.5%	2.7%	5.03	4.90	-0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIL	71	0	75	315	66	39	9	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.5%	8.6%	2.7%	4.88	4.78	-0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIL	71	0	75	315	67	39	9	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.4%	8.8%	2.7%	4.81	4.76	-0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIL	70	0	74	310	66	39	9	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.5%	8.8%	2.8%	4.80	4.80	-0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIL	68	0	71	301	64	38	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.7%	8.5%	2.9%	4.85	4.88	-0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIL	65	0	68	288	60	37	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	3.0%	4.95	5.01	-0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIL	61	0	64	270	56	36	9	0%	1.0	20.5%	13.2%	7.4%	3.2%	5.09	5.19	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIL	32	0	34	144	27	23	4	0%	1.1	18.8%	15.7%	3.1%	2.8%	5.54	5.41	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIL	50	0	52	220	44	31	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	14.1%	5.8%	2.8%	5.25	5.10	-0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIL	58	0	61	258	53	34	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	13.1%	7.5%	2.7%	5.03	4.90	-0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIL	63	0	66	279	59	35	8	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.5%	8.6%	2.7%	4.88	4.78	-0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIL	65	0	68	287	61	36	8	0%	1.0	21.3%	12.4%	8.8%	2.7%	4.81	4.76	-0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIL	65	0	68	287	61	36	8	0%	1.0	21.3%	12.5%	8.8%	2.8%	4.80	4.80	-0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIL	64	0	67	283	60	36	8	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.7%	8.5%	2.9%	4.85	4.88	-0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIL	62	0	65	274	57	35	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	3.0%	4.95	5.01	-0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIL	58	0	61	258	53	34	8	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.2%	7.4%	3.2%	5.09	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		516	0	542	2290	475	299	65	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.1%	7.7%	2.9%	4.98	4.57	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	110	24	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.1%	7.7%	2.9%	4.98	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		71	32	238	1071	187	165	26	45%	3.4	17.5%	15.4%	2.0%	2.4%	5.36	4.90	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	27	200	899	157	139	22	45%	3.4	17.5%	15.4%	2.0%	2.4%	5.36	4.90	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	17.3%	18.2%	2.8%	—	5.13	19.8%	5.5%	215	-0.75	—	—	—
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	86
Ryan Cardona R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	22	SW	5.07	20.9%	17.7%	2.7%	.274	4.27	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.80	3.62	367	85
Dominic Hambley R 2023 · 5.81 FIP	20	SW	5.81	16.4%	20.4%	2.8%	.318	4.66	17.9%	-4.3%	73	-1.15	4.44	131	85
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	84
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	83
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	83
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	82
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	82
Brayner Sánchez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SW	4.94	16.5%	16.4%	2.1%	.339	3.79	19.9%	4.6%	31	-1.15	2.84	128	81
Yeriel Santos R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	19	SW	5.89	17.4%	22.9%	2.5%	.239	5.80	16.0%	-0.9%	276	-0.09	4.44	351	81
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	80
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	80
Leudy Martinez R 2019 · 5.99 FIP	19	SW	5.99	15.2%	22.0%	2.5%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	116	80
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.62	298	80
Yeiber Cartaya R 2023 · 5.38 FIP	20	SW	5.38	16.4%	21.2%	1.8%	.307	4.38	20.4%	3.8%	235	-1.00	4.12	283	80
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	80
Geison Urbaez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	14.1%	18.2%	1.5%	.322	4.71	15.5%	4.7%	112	-0.32	4.04	241	80
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	80
Alejandro Hidalgo R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	20	SW	6.05	16.0%	21.7%	2.8%	.283	6.53	21.9%	9.4%	148	+0.48	4.03	272	79
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	69	20.4%	13.6%	1.10	5.08
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77