Bryan Rivera
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148139vR 130
ERA5.76
FIP5.76
K%17.3%
BB%17.5%
K-BB%-0.2%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 109 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 71% | 3.4 | 16.2% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.62 | 5.05 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 109 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 71% | 3.4 | 23.9% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 5.62 | 3.93 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 12 | 12 | 53 | 213 | 63 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 4.4 | 20.1% | 14.1% | 6.0% | 1.2% | 3.57 | 3.83 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 12 | 12 | 53 | 213 | 63 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 4.4 | 29.6% | 11.3% | 18.3% | 2.3% | 3.57 | 3.31 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 12 | 73 | 329 | 80 | 40 | 4 | 67% | 4.1 | 17.0% | 14.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 5.28 | 4.59 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 12 | 73 | 329 | 80 | 40 | 4 | 67% | 4.1 | 24.3% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 1.2% | 5.28 | 3.26 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 25 | 3 | 73 | 339 | 84 | 49 | 8 | 12% | 2.9 | 18.3% | 17.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 5.82 | 4.89 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 25 | 3 | 73 | 339 | 84 | 49 | 8 | 12% | 2.9 | 24.8% | 14.5% | 10.3% | 2.4% | 5.82 | 4.24 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 9 | 0 | 15 | 81 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 10.5% | 18.5% | -8.0% | 4.6% | 9.39 | 7.10 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIL | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 36 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 17.5% | -0.2% | 2.8% | 5.76 | 5.76 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.3% | 17.5% | -0.2% | 2.8% | 5.76 | 5.76 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 65 | 290 | 47 | 50 | 9 | — | — | 16.3% | 17.1% | -0.8% | 3.0% | 6.62 | 6.08 | -1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.3% | 17.5% | -0.2% | 2.8% | 5.76 | 5.38 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 41 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 15.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 5.44 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 45 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.16 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 21 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 15.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 5.44 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 33 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.16 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 0 | 65 | 276 | 54 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 14.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 5.27 | 4.77 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 122 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 14.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 5.27 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 32 | 238 | 1071 | 187 | 165 | 23 | 45% | 3.4 | 17.5% | 15.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 5.36 | 4.77 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 27 | 200 | 899 | 157 | 139 | 19 | 45% | 3.4 | 17.5% | 15.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 5.36 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Rivera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.76 | 17.3% | 17.5% | 2.8% | — | 5.17 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 106 | -0.59 | — | — | — |
| Griffin Kilander R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.83 | 15.5% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .264 | 4.24 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.59 | 4.24 | 115 | 88 |
| Reynardo Cruz R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.65 | 16.1% | 18.2% | 2.9% | .252 | 4.79 | 16.3% | -1.2% | 66 | -0.86 | 3.94 | 216 | 86 |
| Juan Perez R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.28 | 15.4% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .321 | 4.63 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 56 | -0.65 | 4.63 | 113 | 86 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2027 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.30 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 3.1% | .274 | 4.20 | 18.5% | 4.3% | 292 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 367 | 85 |
| Justin Militello R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.11 | 16.5% | 17.9% | 2.1% | .284 | 6.03 | 13.5% | -5.2% | 25 | +0.92 | 5.11 | 100 | 85 |
| Yunior Montero R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.82 | 16.9% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .276 | 4.59 | 21.5% | 6.2% | 91 | -0.23 | 3.60 | 127 | 84 |
| Hansel Rosario R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.40 | 19.2% | 22.2% | 2.0% | .306 | 6.91 | 16.3% | -21.0% | 19 | +1.51 | 5.08 | 107 | 84 |
| Nestor Lorant R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.44 | 18.7% | 18.2% | 2.9% | .280 | 3.82 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 243 | -1.62 | 2.69 | 367 | 83 |
| Engel Daniel Peralta R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.11 | 17.7% | 15.0% | 2.9% | .300 | 5.76 | 15.2% | 2.1% | 15 | +0.65 | 3.34 | 111 | 83 |
| Blane Abeyta R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.66 | 21.1% | 18.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 4.73 | 15.6% | 6.4% | 343 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 471 | 82 |
| Lisandro Almonte R 2026 · 5.69 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.69 | 20.4% | 20.7% | 3.1% | .274 | 3.92 | 20.7% | 12.2% | 15 | -1.77 | 3.92 | 128 | 82 |
| Brayner Sánchez R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.93 | 16.5% | 16.4% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.81 | 19.9% | 4.6% | 31 | -1.12 | 2.84 | 128 | 82 |
| Blake Quinn R 2028 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 81 |
| Tanner Cooper R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.75 | 17.1% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .338 | 5.44 | 14.4% | 6.7% | 121 | +0.69 | 4.49 | 148 | 81 |
| Johan Moreno R 2026 · 6.39 FIP | 21 | SW | 6.39 | 13.2% | 16.7% | 4.2% | .325 | 4.18 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 105 | -2.21 | 3.13 | 206 | 81 |
| Alex Santos II R 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.82 | 16.8% | 17.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.77 | 23.0% | 5.9% | 89 | -1.05 | 3.51 | 296 | 80 |
| Drew Conover R 2028 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.30 | 15.6% | 29.8% | 1.4% | .272 | 5.34 | 11.7% | -3.6% | 96 | -0.96 | 4.52 | 135 | 80 |
| Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.7% | 16.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.36 | 17.8% | -0.6% | 163 | -0.05 | 3.51 | 278 | 80 |
| Garrett Nuss R 2027 · 5.91 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.91 | 14.1% | 14.9% | 3.8% | .352 | 4.67 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 92 | -1.24 | 4.56 | 174 | 80 |
| Ignacio Feliz R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.75 | 18.8% | 16.4% | 2.1% | .256 | 4.35 | 25.1% | 10.0% | 166 | -0.40 | 2.62 | 328 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 52 | 18.7% | 15.4% | 1.06 | 5.44 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |