Yeriel Santos
P
Asheville Tourists
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 187 lbs
A+
peak 0.8 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 155146vR 137
ERA6.09
FIP6.09
K%14.0%
BB%17.8%
K-BB%-3.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | 12 | 7 | 40 | 166 | 41 | 24 | 1 | 58% | 3.3 | 16.8% | 18.1% | -1.3% | 0.9% | 2.27 | 4.44 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | 12 | 7 | 40 | 166 | 41 | 24 | 1 | 58% | 3.3 | 24.7% | 14.5% | 10.2% | 0.6% | 2.27 | 3.18 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 11 | 5 | 35 | 164 | 42 | 30 | 4 | 45% | 3.2 | 17.4% | 22.9% | -5.5% | 1.9% | 5.35 | 5.59 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 11 | 5 | 35 | 164 | 42 | 30 | 4 | 45% | 3.2 | 25.6% | 18.3% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 5.35 | 4.74 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 25 | 14 | 101 | 432 | 104 | 54 | 7 | 56% | 4.0 | 17.8% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 4.11 | 4.40 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 25 | 14 | 101 | 432 | 104 | 54 | 7 | 56% | 4.0 | 24.1% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 1.6% | 4.11 | 3.55 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 15 | 93 | 450 | 85 | 63 | 15 | 60% | 3.7 | 14.5% | 16.1% | -1.6% | 2.6% | 8.16 | 5.35 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 15 | 93 | 450 | 85 | 63 | 15 | 60% | 3.7 | 18.9% | 14.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 8.16 | 5.41 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 14 | 12 | 56 | 262 | 47 | 40 | 14 | 86% | 4.0 | 13.8% | 17.6% | -3.7% | 6.7% | 7.92 | 7.82 | -2.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 65 | 274 | 38 | 49 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 14.0% | 17.8% | -3.8% | 2.8% | 6.09 | 6.09 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.0% | 17.8% | -3.8% | 2.8% | 6.09 | 6.09 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 120 | 536 | 85 | 89 | 22 | — | — | 15.9% | 16.6% | -0.7% | 4.0% | 6.94 | 6.89 | -2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.0% | 17.8% | -3.8% | 2.8% | 6.09 | 5.71 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 46 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 16.2% | 15.6% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 5.73 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 51 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.45 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 70 | 295 | 54 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.2% | 13.4% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.25 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 70 | 295 | 55 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.5% | 13.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 54 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.5% | 13.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.15 | 5.15 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 23 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.2% | 15.6% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 5.73 | 5.61 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.45 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 44 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.2% | 13.4% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.25 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 48 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 13.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 49 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.5% | 13.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.15 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 44 | 44 | 262 | 1106 | 199 | 153 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 13.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.30 | 4.85 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 152 | 117 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.0% | 13.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.30 | 4.85 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 87 | 53 | 324 | 1474 | 235 | 250 | 41 | 61% | 3.7 | 15.9% | 16.9% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 5.83 | 5.44 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 33 | 200 | 910 | 145 | 154 | 25 | 61% | 3.7 | 15.9% | 16.9% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 5.83 | 5.44 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yeriel Santos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.09 | 14.0% | 17.8% | 2.8% | — | 5.36 | 17.3% | 2.9% | 206 | -0.73 | — | — | — |
| Trey Riley R 2025 · 6.03 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.03 | 10.6% | 19.0% | 2.6% | .344 | 6.14 | 17.4% | 5.2% | 74 | +0.11 | 4.48 | 227 | 87 |
| Jacob Cravey R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.20 | 14.4% | 18.0% | 1.9% | .333 | 5.70 | 14.6% | 0.7% | 120 | +0.50 | 5.13 | 204 | 87 |
| Kevin Gowdy R 2025 · 5.62 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.62 | 11.1% | 17.0% | 2.4% | .321 | 5.82 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 130 | +0.20 | 3.31 | 333 | 86 |
| Ryan Degges R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 86 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 86 |
| Ike Buxton R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 83 |
| Mason Pelio R 2027 · 6.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.26 | 13.3% | 17.4% | 3.8% | .255 | 5.74 | 9.0% | -12.8% | 26 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 122 | 83 |
| Jacob Meador R 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 82 |
| Wills Montgomerie R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.03 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 105 | -0.48 | 4.55 | 153 | 81 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 81 |
| Matt Ager R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.81 | 10.4% | 15.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 70 | -0.81 | 5.00 | 146 | 81 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 80 |
| Alberto Tirado R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.62 | 14.7% | 18.5% | 2.6% | .294 | 3.82 | 16.5% | -0.2% | 33 | -1.80 | 3.82 | 247 | 79 |
| Will Childers R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.30 | 11.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.22 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 143 | -1.08 | 3.50 | 202 | 78 |
| Ramsey David R 2028 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 78 |
| Juan Martinez R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.28 | 11.1% | 15.8% | 2.0% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 202 | 78 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 16.8% | 2.2% | .329 | 6.34 | 11.8% | -3.6% | 79 | +1.24 | 4.85 | 226 | 77 |
| Jol Concepcion R 2026 · 6.53 FIP | 22 | SW | 6.53 | 12.2% | 20.0% | 3.5% | .272 | 4.65 | 23.9% | 3.9% | 50 | -1.88 | 4.65 | 154 | 76 |
| Boone Whiting R 2029 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 76 |
| Kevin Valdez R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.91 | 16.6% | 17.9% | 1.7% | .188 | 4.72 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 150 | -0.19 | 3.46 | 223 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 68 | 17.2% | 14.6% | 1.07 | 5.46 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |