Yeriel Santos — OGILVIE

Yeriel Santos P Asheville Tourists

+0.0 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 187 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2030

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.0%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%6.0%

IP93

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2030

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	12	7	40	166	41	24	1	16.8%	18.1%	0.9%	2.27	4.44	+0.2
2023	19	ROK	FCL Astros	11	5	35	164	42	30	4	17.4%	22.9%	2.2%	5.35	5.71	-0.3
2024	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	14	101	432	104	54	7	17.8%	14.8%	1.9%	4.11	4.51	+0.9
2025	21	A+	Asheville Tourists	25	15	93	450	85	63	15	14.5%	16.1%	3.1%	8.16	5.59	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	2	1	8	30	5	3	1	—	—	—	3.38	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	HOU	17	17	93	391	74	51	11	19.0%	13.0%	2.9%	5.12	5.12	+0.1
2026 Total	22	MLB	HOU	—	—	101	421	79	54	12	18.8%	12.8%	2.9%	4.98	4.71	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	HOU	21	21	116	491	100	56	14	20.3%	11.4%	2.9%	4.89	4.79	+0.7
2028	24	MLB	HOU	25	25	135	570	120	60	16	21.1%	10.4%	2.9%	4.69	4.59	+1.1
2029	25	MLB	HOU	27	27	149	628	135	62	18	21.5%	9.9%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+1.4
2030	26	MLB	HOU	28	28	156	658	143	64	19	21.7%	9.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.45	+1.5
2031	27	MLB	HOU	29	29	159	670	146	66	19	21.8%	9.8%	2.9%	4.47	4.46	+1.5
2032	28	MLB	HOU	29	29	158	668	145	66	19	21.7%	9.8%	2.9%	4.48	4.49	+1.5
2033	29	MLB	HOU	28	28	155	653	141	65	19	21.6%	9.9%	2.9%	4.51	4.53	+1.3
2034	30	MLB	HOU	27	27	150	633	136	63	19	21.4%	10.0%	3.0%	4.56	4.59	+1.2
2035	31	MLB	HOU	26	26	145	611	129	62	19	21.2%	10.1%	3.1%	4.62	4.67	+1.0
2036	32	MLB	HOU	25	25	139	587	123	60	19	20.9%	10.3%	3.2%	4.70	4.75	+0.9
2037	33	MLB	HOU	24	24	133	560	115	59	18	20.6%	10.5%	3.2%	4.79	4.85	+0.7
2038	34	MLB	HOU	23	23	126	532	108	57	18	20.2%	10.7%	3.3%	4.89	4.96	+0.5
2039	35	MLB	HOU	22	22	119	502	100	55	17	19.8%	10.9%	3.5%	5.01	5.08	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			75	42	276	1242	204	207	28	16.4%	16.6%	2.2%	5.34	5.06	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—			54	30	200	899	148	150	20	16.4%	16.6%	2.2%	5.34	5.06	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yeriel Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	19.0%	13.0%	2.9%	—	4.61	21.0%	10.5%	400	-0.51	—	—	—
Hayden Merda R 2027 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP-	5.20	16.1%	15.3%	2.8%	.325	4.97	21.5%	6.1%	54	-0.23	4.97	150	93
Garrett Cave R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	92
Jacob Meador R 2027 · 5.35 FIP	23	SP-	5.35	15.6%	14.0%	3.3%	.301	6.74	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.35	139	92
J.P. Massey R 2027 · 4.96 FIP	23	SP-	4.96	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.11	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.15	4.70	195	91
Jacob Watters R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	22	SP-	4.93	18.3%	17.1%	2.2%	.319	4.39	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.54	3.86	165	91
Cobi Johnson R 2027 · 5.57 FIP	23	SP-	5.57	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.55	19.9%	1.4%	41	-1.02	4.55	140	91
Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP-	4.79	14.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.275	4.29	16.6%	5.0%	102	-0.50	4.29	199	90
Kyle Johnston R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.08	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.44	3.80	395	90
James McArthur R 2026 · 5.06 FIP	22	SP-	5.06	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.44	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.62	3.54	352	90
Matt Ruppenthal R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	89
Chad Dallas R 2026 · 5.89 FIP	22	SP-	5.89	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.74	20.1%	10.0%	184	-1.15	4.57	272	89
Max Bain R 2027 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	89
Jake Peppers R 2026 · 5.10 FIP	22	SP-	5.10	15.3%	12.2%	3.2%	.293	4.80	15.7%	0.5%	63	-0.30	4.80	160	88
Chase Cohen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.28	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.41	3.54	263	88
Garrett Nuss R 2026 · 5.65 FIP	22	SP-	5.65	14.1%	14.9%	3.4%	.352	4.59	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.06	4.57	174	87
Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	87
Tanner Houck R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	16.5%	13.3%	2.9%	.294	3.10	24.3%	14.8%	215	-1.86	2.28	733	87
Elijah Dale R 2027 · 4.57 FIP	23	SP-	4.57	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.46	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.89	4.57	140	86
Jordan Sheffield R 2026 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.59	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.52	3.87	248	86
Adam Hill R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.14	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.15	4.99	213	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+1.3	$13M	+$12M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.2	$12M	+$10M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+1.0	$10M	+$9M
Totals		$7M		$77M	+$70M