Yeriel Santos — OGILVIE

Yeriel Santos P Asheville Tourists

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 187 lbs A+ peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152144vR 135

ERA6.24

FIP6.24

K%14.0%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%-4.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	12	7	40	166	41	24	1	58%	3.3	16.8%	18.1%	-1.3%	0.9%	2.27	4.44	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	12	7	40	166	41	24	1	58%	3.3	24.7%	14.5%	10.2%	0.6%	2.27	3.18	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	11	5	35	164	42	30	4	45%	3.2	17.4%	22.9%	-5.5%	2.5%	5.35	5.89	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	11	5	35	164	42	30	4	45%	3.2	17.4%	22.9%	-5.5%	2.5%	5.35	5.89	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	11	5	35	164	42	30	4	45%	3.2	25.6%	18.3%	7.3%	2.4%	5.35	4.74	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	14	101	432	104	54	7	56%	4.0	17.8%	14.8%	3.1%	1.9%	4.11	4.50	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	14	101	432	104	54	7	56%	4.0	17.8%	14.8%	3.1%	1.9%	4.11	4.50	—
2024	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	14	101	432	104	54	7	56%	4.0	24.1%	12.5%	11.6%	1.6%	4.11	3.55	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	15	93	450	85	63	15	60%	3.7	14.5%	16.1%	-1.6%	3.2%	8.16	5.67	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	15	93	450	85	63	15	60%	3.7	14.5%	16.1%	-1.6%	3.2%	8.16	5.67	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	25	15	93	450	85	63	15	60%	3.7	18.9%	14.0%	4.9%	3.3%	8.16	5.41	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	21	15	82	390	78	69	18	71%	3.9	15.4%	20.3%	-4.9%	5.8%	7.87	7.54	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	21	15	82	390	78	69	18	71%	3.9	15.4%	20.3%	-4.9%	5.8%	7.87	7.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	HOU	21	15	82	390	78	69	18	71%	3.9	20.0%	17.7%	2.3%	4.6%	7.87	6.19	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	5	23	3	4	1	100%	5.5	14.0%	18.3%	-4.3%	3.0%	6.24	6.24	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	88	413	81	73	19	—	—	19.7%	17.7%	1.9%	4.5%	7.77	7.46	-2.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	94	397	64	63	12	100%	5.9	16.1%	15.9%	0.2%	2.9%	5.86	5.74	-0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	96	407	70	58	12	100%	6.0	17.3%	14.4%	3.0%	2.9%	5.55	5.43	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	98	412	74	55	12	100%	6.1	18.0%	13.4%	4.6%	2.9%	5.34	5.25	-0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	98	412	75	55	12	100%	6.1	18.3%	13.3%	5.1%	2.9%	5.24	5.20	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	96	405	74	54	12	100%	6.0	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	2.9%	5.24	5.24	-0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	93	393	71	53	12	100%	6.2	18.2%	13.5%	4.7%	3.0%	5.29	5.32	-0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	89	375	67	51	12	100%	5.9	17.9%	13.7%	4.2%	3.2%	5.39	5.45	-0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	84	353	62	49	12	100%	6.0	17.6%	14.0%	3.6%	3.4%	5.53	5.63	-0.7
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	46	194	31	31	6	100%	5.8	16.1%	15.9%	0.2%	2.9%	5.86	5.74	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	67	283	49	41	8	100%	6.1	17.3%	14.4%	3.0%	2.9%	5.55	5.43	-0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	79	334	60	45	10	100%	6.1	18.0%	13.4%	4.6%	2.9%	5.34	5.25	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	85	359	66	48	10	100%	6.1	18.3%	13.3%	5.1%	2.9%	5.24	5.20	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	87	367	67	49	11	100%	6.2	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	2.9%	5.24	5.24	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	86	363	66	49	11	100%	6.1	18.2%	13.5%	4.7%	3.0%	5.29	5.32	-0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	83	350	63	48	11	100%	5.9	17.9%	13.7%	4.2%	3.2%	5.39	5.45	-0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	78	329	58	46	11	100%	6.0	17.6%	14.0%	3.6%	3.4%	5.53	5.63	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	101	612	2582	460	356	78	100%	6.1	17.8%	13.8%	4.0%	3.0%	5.40	5.00	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	150	116	26	100%	6.1	17.8%	13.8%	4.0%	3.0%	5.40	5.00	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		94	56	351	1602	259	283	51	60%	3.7	16.2%	17.7%	-1.5%	3.2%	5.98	5.71	-4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	32	200	914	148	161	29	60%	3.7	16.2%	17.7%	-1.5%	3.2%	5.98	5.71	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yeriel Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.24	14.0%	18.3%	3.0%	—	5.47	17.1%	2.6%	288	-0.77	—	—	—
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	85
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	84
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.16	333	84
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	83
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	82
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	81
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	80
Alberto Tirado R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	22	SW	5.69	14.7%	18.5%	2.7%	.294	3.82	16.5%	-0.2%	33	-1.87	3.78	247	80
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	79
Alex Santos II R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	21	SW	6.17	16.8%	17.5%	4.1%	.335	4.57	24.8%	8.5%	106	-1.60	3.51	313	78
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	78
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	78
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	77
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	76
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	76
Edrick Agosto R 2017 · 6.67 FIP	20	SP-	6.67	11.4%	17.1%	4.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	113	76
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	76
Luis Moreno R 2021 · 6.31 FIP	22	SP-	6.31	14.0%	19.5%	3.5%	.290	4.59	17.9%	7.0%	340	-1.72	3.73	626	76
Taylor Hawkins R 2016 · 5.38 FIP	22	SW	5.38	7.7%	19.6%	0.8%	.239	5.98	7.4%	-12.1%	43	+0.60	5.38	112	75
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	90	17.4%	14.3%	1.16	5.49
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32