Luis Moreno
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
Age 27
RHP
5'8" / 170 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135125vR 116
ERA5.13
FIP5.13
K%17.4%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%5.5%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 13 | 10 | 43 | 192 | 45 | 24 | 0 | 77% | 3.3 | 15.9% | 15.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 4.43 | 3.73 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 13 | 10 | 43 | 192 | 45 | 24 | 0 | 77% | 3.3 | 23.4% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 4.43 | 2.68 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 21 | 12 | 73 | 339 | 64 | 56 | 9 | 57% | 3.5 | 14.0% | 19.5% | -5.5% | 3.5% | 5.42 | 6.33 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 21 | 12 | 73 | 339 | 64 | 56 | 9 | 57% | 3.5 | 18.9% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.42 | 5.25 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 117 | 485 | 107 | 43 | 8 | 68% | 4.7 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 2.84 | 4.32 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 117 | 485 | 107 | 43 | 8 | 68% | 4.7 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 1.6% | 2.84 | 3.26 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 123 | 544 | 122 | 63 | 12 | 85% | 4.7 | 18.0% | 12.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.91 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 123 | 544 | 122 | 63 | 12 | 85% | 4.7 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 4.92 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 109 | 492 | 114 | 48 | 12 | 75% | 3.9 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 4.77 | 5.33 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 109 | 492 | 114 | 48 | 12 | 75% | 3.9 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 2.4% | 4.77 | 3.76 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 7 | 80 | 353 | 77 | 39 | 6 | 18% | 2.0 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 6.3% | 1.7% | 5.38 | 4.03 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 7 | 80 | 353 | 77 | 39 | 6 | 18% | 2.0 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 1.7% | 5.38 | 3.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 15 | 10 | 56 | 251 | 39 | 25 | 10 | 67% | 3.8 | 12.6% | 11.0% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 5.43 | 6.05 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 51 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.4% | 11.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 11.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 5.13 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 126 | 547 | 90 | 60 | 19 | — | — | 16.5% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.26 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.4% | 11.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 10 | 10 | 65 | 274 | 49 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 5.14 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 46 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.0% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 5.13 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 5.14 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 31 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.0% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 5.33 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 17 | 17 | 104 | 441 | 79 | 52 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 5.17 | 4.85 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 32 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 100 | 27 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 5.17 | 4.85 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 168 | 99 | 602 | 2656 | 446 | 331 | 82 | 59% | 3.6 | 16.8% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.97 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 33 | 200 | 883 | 148 | 110 | 27 | 59% | 3.6 | 16.8% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Moreno (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.13 | 17.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | — | 5.22 | 18.0% | 6.1% | 194 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 82 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 82 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 82 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 81 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 81 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 80 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 80 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 80 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 80 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 79 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 78 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 78 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 77 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 76 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 76 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 76 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.30 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .285 | 5.87 | 16.1% | 5.4% | 99 | +1.57 | 3.92 | 233 | 76 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 76 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 75 |
| Chris Jensen R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.29 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 488 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 1.21 | 5.15 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |