Luis Moreno — OGILVIE

Luis Moreno P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

+0.4 WAR

Age 27 RHP 5'8" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2026

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.0%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.1%

IP91

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2026

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	20	ROK	DSL Mets 2	13	10	43	192	45	24	0	15.9%	15.6%	0.0%	4.43	3.73	+0.6
2021	22	A	St. Lucie Mets	21	12	73	339	64	56	9	14.0%	19.5%	3.5%	5.42	6.31	-1.0
2022	23	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	25	17	117	485	107	43	8	16.8%	10.3%	2.3%	2.84	4.23	+1.4
2023	24	AAA	Syracuse Mets	26	22	123	544	122	63	12	18.0%	12.3%	3.0%	4.92	4.77	+0.7
2024	25	AAA	Syracuse Mets	28	21	109	492	114	48	12	18.9%	9.8%	3.8%	4.77	4.83	+0.6
2025	26	AAA	Syracuse Mets	40	7	80	353	77	39	6	18.2%	11.9%	1.8%	5.38	4.09	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	NYM	17	17	91	385	77	42	11	20.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.72	4.72	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	NYM	17	17	92	387	78	41	11	20.1%	10.7%	2.9%	4.69	4.70	+0.5
2028	29	MLB	NYM	16	16	90	378	76	40	11	20.2%	10.5%	2.9%	4.69	4.71	+0.5
2029	30	MLB	NYM	16	16	87	367	74	38	11	20.0%	10.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.75	+0.4
2030	31	MLB	NYM	15	15	84	354	70	37	11	19.9%	10.5%	3.1%	4.77	4.81	+0.3
2031	32	MLB	NYM	15	15	80	340	67	36	11	19.6%	10.7%	3.1%	4.85	4.90	+0.2
2032	33	MLB	NYM	14	14	77	325	69	33	10	21.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.78	4.73	+0.3
2033	34	MLB	NYM	13	13	73	309	65	32	10	20.9%	10.2%	3.3%	4.82	4.84	+0.2
2034	35	MLB	NYM	13	13	69	291	60	30	10	20.5%	10.5%	3.4%	4.90	4.96	+0.1
2035	36	MLB	NYM	12	12	64	272	55	29	10	20.1%	10.7%	3.6%	5.02	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			153	89	545	2405	414	304	64	17.2%	12.6%	2.7%	4.54	4.71	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—			56	33	200	882	152	111	23	17.2%	12.6%	2.7%	4.54	4.71	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Moreno (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	20.0%	10.9%	2.8%	—	4.72	20.1%	9.6%	268	-0.00	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP-	3.98	18.4%	8.9%	2.4%	.315	5.24	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.26	3.98	115	90
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.72	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.12	3.22	221	87
Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP-	4.38	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	250	86
Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	27	SP-	3.80	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.62	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.82	3.80	500	85
Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP	26	SP-	4.43	17.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.393	4.26	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.17	4.26	166	85
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	28	SP-	4.06	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.65	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.59	4.06	203	84
Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	27	SP-	4.43	14.9%	8.8%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	340	84
Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP-	4.23	16.1%	8.3%	2.6%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.91	3.32	252	84
Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	84
Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	27	SP-	4.81	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.20	3.03	401	83
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP-	4.46	16.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	195	83
André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP-	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.01	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.21	3.54	200	83
Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	83
Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP	26	SP-	4.72	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	175	83
Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP	26	SP-	4.98	13.5%	11.0%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	157	83
Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	5.02	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.60	4.42	200	82
Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.86	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.13	3.73	399	82
Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	16.9%	9.2%	3.7%	.231	3.67	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.19	3.65	424	82
Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	27	SP-	4.05	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.368	4.33	21.5%	10.4%	79	+0.28	2.95	492	81
Kanekoa Texeira R 2028 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.09	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.04	4.09	165	81

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-3	$0.2M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.7M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.7M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.4M
Totals		$4M		$9M	+$4M