Luis Moreno — OGILVIE

Luis Moreno P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 27 RHP 5'8" / 170 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%17.1%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%5.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	13	10	43	192	45	24	0	77%	3.3	15.9%	15.6%	0.3%	0.0%	4.43	3.73	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	13	10	43	192	45	24	0	77%	3.3	23.4%	12.5%	10.9%	0.0%	4.43	2.68	—
2021	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	21	12	73	339	64	56	9	57%	3.5	14.0%	19.5%	-5.5%	3.5%	5.42	6.31	—
2021	22	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	21	12	73	339	64	56	9	57%	3.5	18.9%	16.5%	2.4%	2.7%	5.42	5.25	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	117	485	107	43	8	68%	4.7	16.8%	10.3%	6.4%	2.2%	2.84	4.22	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	117	485	107	43	8	68%	4.7	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	1.6%	2.84	3.26	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	123	544	122	63	12	85%	4.7	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.0%	4.92	4.77	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	123	544	122	63	12	85%	4.7	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.0%	4.92	4.77	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	123	544	122	63	12	85%	4.7	22.4%	11.6%	10.8%	2.2%	4.92	3.92	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	109	492	114	48	12	75%	3.9	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	3.8%	4.77	4.81	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	109	492	114	48	12	75%	3.9	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	3.8%	4.77	4.81	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	21	109	492	114	48	12	75%	3.9	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.4%	4.77	3.76	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	80	353	77	39	6	18%	2.0	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	1.8%	5.38	4.01	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	80	353	77	39	6	18%	2.0	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	1.8%	5.38	4.01	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	7	80	353	77	39	6	18%	2.0	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	1.7%	5.38	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	25	16	90	422	61	51	15	64%	3.6	11.7%	13.3%	-1.6%	4.3%	7.07	6.14	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	25	16	90	422	61	51	15	64%	3.6	11.7%	13.3%	-1.6%	4.3%	7.07	6.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	MIA	25	16	90	422	61	51	15	64%	3.6	14.5%	12.1%	2.4%	3.6%	7.07	5.36	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	6	25	4	3	1	100%	5.9	17.1%	11.2%	5.9%	2.8%	4.99	4.99	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	96	447	65	54	16	—	—	14.6%	12.0%	2.6%	3.5%	6.95	6.07	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	68	287	50	32	8	100%	6.2	17.6%	11.1%	6.5%	2.9%	4.98	5.01	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	65	274	49	31	8	100%	6.5	17.8%	11.2%	6.6%	3.1%	5.02	5.09	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	26	110	19	12	3	100%	6.5	17.6%	11.1%	6.5%	2.9%	4.98	5.01	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	36	152	27	17	5	100%	6.0	17.8%	11.2%	6.6%	3.1%	5.02	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	62	261	46	29	8	100%	6.2	17.7%	11.2%	6.6%	3.0%	5.00	4.68	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	149	94	26	100%	6.2	17.7%	11.2%	6.6%	3.0%	5.00	4.68	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		178	105	636	2827	462	357	82	59%	3.6	16.4%	12.6%	3.7%	2.9%	4.90	4.91	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	33	200	889	146	112	26	59%	3.6	16.4%	12.6%	3.7%	2.9%	4.90	4.91	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Moreno (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	17.1%	11.2%	2.8%	—	5.05	17.7%	6.5%	133	+0.06	—	—	—
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	83
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	82
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	82
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	82
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	82
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	81
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	81
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	80
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	80
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	80
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	79
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	79
Stolmy Pimentel R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	26	SP-	3.87	13.6%	10.5%	1.1%	.379	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	143	77
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	77
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	77
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	77
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	76
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	76
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	17.5%	11.2%	1.14	5.00
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38