Alex Santos II — OGILVIE

Alex Santos II P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 208 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%21.4%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	12	7	42	183	48	30	2	58%	3.5	19.4%	19.3%	0.1%	1.2%	3.46	4.57	—
2021	19	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	12	7	42	183	48	30	2	58%	3.5	26.2%	16.4%	9.8%	1.1%	3.46	3.58	—
2022	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	14	83	362	104	37	15	61%	3.6	21.3%	12.1%	9.2%	5.7%	5.99	5.95	—
2022	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	14	83	362	104	37	15	61%	3.6	28.7%	10.2%	18.5%	4.1%	5.99	4.29	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	12	83	421	92	64	17	48%	3.3	16.8%	17.5%	-0.7%	4.1%	6.94	6.17	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	12	83	421	92	64	17	48%	3.3	16.8%	17.5%	-0.7%	4.1%	6.94	6.17	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	25	12	83	421	92	64	17	48%	3.3	21.9%	15.2%	6.7%	4.0%	6.94	5.86	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	6	5	23	111	24	14	5	83%	3.8	17.5%	13.9%	3.6%	5.6%	7.83	6.44	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	6	5	23	111	24	14	5	83%	3.8	17.5%	13.9%	3.6%	5.6%	7.83	6.44	—
2024	22	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	6	5	23	111	24	14	5	83%	3.8	21.6%	12.6%	9.0%	4.5%	7.83	5.67	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	10	7	29	129	38	23	3	70%	2.9	23.9%	19.6%	4.2%	2.6%	4.60	5.02	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	10	7	29	129	38	23	3	70%	2.9	23.9%	19.6%	4.2%	2.6%	4.60	5.02	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	10	7	29	129	38	23	3	70%	2.9	29.5%	17.8%	11.6%	2.3%	4.60	4.19	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	47	0	63	271	98	38	4	0%	1.3	28.4%	15.5%	12.9%	1.5%	2.98	3.51	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	47	0	63	271	98	38	4	0%	1.3	28.4%	15.5%	12.9%	1.5%	2.98	3.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	HOU	39	0	53	234	82	33	3	0%	1.4	35.0%	14.1%	20.9%	1.3%	3.38	2.63	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	HOU	8	0	10	37	16	5	1	0%	1.2	43.2%	13.5%	29.7%	2.7%	0.90	2.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	60	0	63	265	58	38	8	0%	1.0	22.0%	14.3%	7.7%	3.1%	5.23	5.14	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	60	0	63	265	59	37	8	0%	1.0	22.3%	13.9%	8.4%	3.1%	5.10	5.06	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	27	0	28	118	26	17	4	0%	1.0	22.0%	14.3%	7.7%	3.1%	5.23	5.14	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	40	0	42	177	40	25	6	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.9%	8.4%	3.1%	5.10	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	70	294	65	41	9	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.0%	8.2%	3.1%	5.15	4.71	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	118	26	0%	1.0	22.2%	14.0%	8.2%	3.1%	5.15	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		123	45	323	1477	310	235	54	37%	2.6	21.0%	15.9%	5.1%	3.7%	5.32	5.35	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	28	200	915	192	146	33	37%	2.6	21.0%	15.9%	5.1%	3.7%	5.32	5.35	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Santos II (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	21.4%	16.4%	3.1%	—	5.10	22.1%	8.1%	126	-0.38	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	80
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	78
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	78
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	77
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	77
Yoel Espinal R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	21.4%	23.1%	2.1%	.255	4.24	22.9%	10.0%	99	-1.13	3.86	231	76
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	76
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	76
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	76
Richard Guasch R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	24	SW	4.41	22.3%	16.2%	2.1%	.287	3.24	23.8%	11.8%	72	-1.17	2.94	316	76
Dylan Heid R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	21.6%	16.9%	2.4%	.287	3.33	22.6%	9.0%	103	-1.37	2.66	135	76
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	75
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	75
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	75
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.88	23.4%	11.5%	93	-1.19	2.81	153	75
Kasey Ford R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	21.3%	14.7%	3.6%	.302	3.83	22.2%	5.5%	65	-1.29	2.53	114	75
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	75
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	75
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	22.0%	14.4%	1.21	5.21
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22