Alex Santos II
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
+0.0
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 208 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA4.94
FIP4.94
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%12.9%
K-BB%9.5%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 12 | 7 | 42 | 183 | 48 | 30 | 2 | 19.4% | 19.3% | 1.0% | 3.46 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 23 | 14 | 83 | 362 | 104 | 37 | 15 | 21.3% | 12.1% | 5.6% | 5.99 | 5.92 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 12 | 83 | 421 | 92 | 64 | 17 | 16.8% | 17.5% | 4.0% | 6.94 | 6.07 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 6 | 5 | 23 | 111 | 24 | 14 | 5 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 5.6% | 7.83 | 6.44 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 10 | 7 | 29 | 129 | 38 | 23 | 3 | 23.9% | 19.6% | 2.5% | 4.60 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 5 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | HOU | 28 | — | 28 | 118 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.94 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 33 | 143 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 5.34 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 81 | 45 | 264 | 1231 | 239 | 195 | 48 | 19.4% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 5.92 | 5.64 | -1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 34 | 200 | 931 | 181 | 148 | 36 | 19.4% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 5.92 | 5.64 | -0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Santos II (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.73 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 28 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 94 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 94 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 91 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.41 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .301 | 4.39 | 26.1% | 10.7% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 143 | 90 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 89 |
| Colin McKee R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.04 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.35 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 97 | -0.69 | 4.16 | 148 | 89 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 89 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 88 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 88 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.7% | .319 | 4.82 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.11 | 4.56 | 132 | 87 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 87 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 20.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .298 | 3.90 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 90 | -0.72 | 3.63 | 186 | 87 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .278 | 6.32 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.63 | 4.27 | 103 | 86 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.36 | 21.4% | 15.3% | 3.9% | .247 | 4.84 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 115 | -0.52 | 4.76 | 183 | 86 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.17 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 3.9% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 154 | 86 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 86 |
| Bryce McGowan R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.12 | 19.8% | 14.3% | 3.4% | .304 | 3.74 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 55 | -1.38 | 3.74 | 178 | 86 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.86 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.29 | 2.95 | 246 | 86 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 85 |
| Adisyn Coffey R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.85 | 20.6% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .311 | 3.93 | 24.3% | 12.8% | 107 | -0.92 | 2.89 | 184 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.