Dylan Heid

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	32	0	45	2.58	1.71	36.4%	10.7%	—	K 29.4% · BB 12.5% · FIP 2.66
2024	26	AABowie Baysox	41	0	64	1.69	3.23	22.9%	13.0%	—	K 18.5% · BB 14.3% · FIP 3.74
2025	27	MIX3 levels	16	0	20	3.54	4.77	22.0%	17.6%	—	K 22.0% · BB 17.6% · FIP 4.68
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBBAL	1	0	1	4.74	4.74	21.3%	11.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBBAL	10	0	10	4.80	4.87	21.1%	11.7%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJim Miller (age 30) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Dustin Molleken (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%21.3%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	41	191	64	30	3	0%	2.6	21.6%	16.9%	4.8%	2.4%	4.35	4.70	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	0	41	191	64	30	3	0%	2.6	33.5%	15.7%	17.8%	1.6%	4.35	3.12	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	45	187	68	20	1	0%	1.4	29.4%	12.5%	16.9%	0.8%	2.58	2.66	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	45	187	68	20	1	0%	1.4	36.4%	10.7%	25.7%	0.5%	2.58	1.71	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	41	0	64	262	60	34	2	0%	1.6	18.5%	14.3%	4.3%	0.7%	1.69	3.74	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	41	0	64	262	60	34	2	0%	1.6	18.5%	14.3%	4.3%	0.7%	1.69	3.74	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	41	0	64	262	60	34	2	0%	1.6	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	0.8%	1.69	3.23	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	20	91	20	16	2	0%	1.3	22.0%	17.6%	4.4%	2.2%	3.54	4.68	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	20	91	20	16	2	0%	1.3	22.0%	17.6%	4.4%	2.2%	3.54	4.68	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	0	20	91	20	16	2	0%	1.3	22.0%	17.6%	4.4%	2.2%	3.54	4.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	BAL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.6%	9.6%	2.9%	4.74	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	32	0	34	141	30	17	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.87	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.87	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	44	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	95	19	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		105	0	171	731	165	109	10	0%	1.6	22.6%	14.9%	7.6%	1.4%	2.79	3.83	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		123	0	200	855	193	128	12	0%	1.6	22.6%	14.9%	7.6%	1.4%	2.79	3.83	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 10 IPFIP 4.67 → 5.16 (+0.49)K% 20.9% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.93%	—	×0.810	16.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.28%	—	×1.100	17.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.248	×1.200	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 4.67 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 8 IPFIP 4.99 → 5.27 (+0.28)K% 26.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.860	22.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.05%	—	×0.900	18.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.945	×1.100	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 4.99 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 64 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.74 (+0.52)K% 22.9% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.90%	—	×0.810	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.98%	—	×1.100	14.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷1.249	×1.200	0.73%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 39 IPFIP 1.59 → 2.66 (+1.07)K% 38.2% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.18%	—	×0.770	29.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×1.150	12.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷0.912	×1.250	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 1.59 → 2.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 6 IPFIP 2.33 → 2.81 (+0.48)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.810	18.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.208	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.33 → 2.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 32 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.70 (+1.14)K% 29.3% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.25%	—	×0.740	21.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.180	16.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.128	×1.300	2.35%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 126).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 6 IPFIP 1.07 → 2.31 (+1.24)K% 48.0% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.00%	—	×0.770	36.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×1.150	18.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.029	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.07 → 2.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Heid (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	21.3%	11.6%	2.9%	—	4.87	21.1%	9.4%	34	+0.13	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	91
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	88
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	87
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	84
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	83
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	82
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	82
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	80
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	79
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	79
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	79
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	78
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	78
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	78
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	21.2%	11.7%	1.15	4.77
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*