Dylan Heid — OGILVIE

Dylan Heid P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%20.8%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	41	191	64	30	3	0%	2.6	21.6%	16.9%	4.8%	2.4%	4.35	4.70	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	0	41	191	64	30	3	0%	2.6	33.5%	15.7%	17.8%	1.6%	4.35	3.12	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	45	187	68	20	1	0%	1.4	29.4%	12.5%	16.9%	0.8%	2.58	2.66	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	45	187	68	20	1	0%	1.4	29.4%	12.5%	16.9%	0.8%	2.58	2.66	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	45	187	68	20	1	0%	1.4	36.4%	10.7%	25.7%	0.5%	2.58	1.71	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	41	0	64	262	60	34	2	0%	1.6	18.5%	14.3%	4.3%	0.7%	1.69	3.74	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	41	0	64	262	60	34	2	0%	1.6	18.5%	14.3%	4.3%	0.7%	1.69	3.74	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	41	0	64	262	60	34	2	0%	1.6	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	0.8%	1.69	3.23	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	20	91	20	16	2	0%	1.3	22.0%	17.6%	4.4%	2.2%	3.54	4.68	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	20	91	20	16	2	0%	1.3	22.0%	17.6%	4.4%	2.2%	3.54	4.68	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	0	20	91	20	16	2	0%	1.3	22.0%	17.6%	4.4%	2.2%	3.54	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	BAL	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	20.8%	12.9%	8.0%	2.6%	4.80	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BAL	36	0	38	162	34	21	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.7%	8.1%	2.8%	4.83	4.88	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	BAL	11	0	12	51	11	6	1	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.7%	8.1%	2.8%	4.83	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	51	11	6	1	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.7%	8.1%	2.8%	4.83	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	100	17	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.7%	8.1%	2.8%	4.83	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		105	0	171	731	165	109	10	0%	1.6	22.6%	14.9%	7.6%	1.4%	2.79	3.83	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		123	0	200	855	193	128	12	0%	1.6	22.6%	14.9%	7.6%	1.4%	2.79	3.83	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Heid (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	20.8%	12.9%	2.6%	—	4.88	20.9%	8.1%	38	+0.08	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	92
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	87
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	86
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	86
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	84
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	83
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	83
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	83
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	83
Erik Davis R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	17.9%	13.5%	1.2%	.363	3.64	21.1%	11.3%	181	-0.31	3.05	227	82
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	81
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	81
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	80
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	80
Gonzalez Germen R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SU	3.88	19.2%	10.9%	1.8%	.292	3.70	15.5%	6.9%	16	-0.18	3.70	146	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	20.8%	12.8%	1.06	4.81
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91