Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 11 | 7 | 41 | 152 | 37 | 14 | 2 | 64% | 3.7 | 16.6% | 11.5% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 1.54 | 4.12 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 11 | 7 | 41 | 152 | 37 | 14 | 2 | 64% | 3.7 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 15.1% | 1.3% | 1.54 | 2.95 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 6 | 44 | 199 | 38 | 17 | 10 | 46% | 3.4 | 13.6% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 7.36 | 6.95 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 6 | 44 | 199 | 38 | 17 | 10 | 46% | 3.4 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 5.0% | 7.36 | 5.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Wilson Warbirds | 17 | 0 | 35 | 155 | 36 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 2.0 | 17.2% | 18.3% | -1.1% | 5.9% | 5.71 | 7.19 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 103 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.43 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 59 | 258 | 59 | 34 | 10 | — | — | 23.0% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 5.18 | 6.05 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 0 | 26 | 108 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 13 | 53 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 3.93 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 79 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 13 | 120 | 506 | 79 | 66 | 25 | 32% | 2.9 | 15.6% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 4.89 | 6.17 | -1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 22 | 200 | 846 | 132 | 110 | 42 | 32% | 2.9 | 15.6% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 4.89 | 6.17 | -1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eric Prado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.31 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 26 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zurak R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 87 |
| Jake Elliott R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.82 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .353 | 3.81 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 202 | -0.01 | 3.10 | 354 | 82 |
| Carlos Campos R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.43 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .304 | 5.57 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 19 | +1.14 | 4.43 | 134 | 81 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 81 |
| Austin Hutchison R 2028 · 4.05 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.05 | 19.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .340 | 5.20 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 213 | +1.15 | 3.60 | 235 | 81 |
| Huei-Sheng Lin R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.59 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .360 | 5.41 | 16.1% | 3.7% | 88 | +0.82 | 4.59 | 120 | 81 |
| Daniel Bies R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.96 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .339 | 3.22 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.22 | 115 | 81 |
| Clark Beeker R 2029 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 81 |
| Kai Wynyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.41 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .269 | 4.09 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 138 | -0.32 | 3.29 | 240 | 81 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2029 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 80 |
| Addison Russ R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 80 |
| Adrián Martinez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.30 | 18.8% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 4.09 | 17.3% | 7.6% | 92 | -0.21 | 2.02 | 526 | 80 |
| Brendan Collins R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 80 |
| Chris Gau R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 80 |
| David Davalillo R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.24 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 1.5% | .292 | 3.32 | 21.0% | 12.0% | 262 | +0.08 | 2.94 | 279 | 79 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.32 | 19.6% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 5.28 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 92 | +1.96 | 3.32 | 124 | 79 |
| Albert Polanco R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.96 | 24.6% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 135 | 79 |
| Luis Romero R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 79 |
| Osiris German R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.25 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.01 | 3.11 | 187 | 79 |
| Brandon Komar R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.63 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | 5.21 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.58 | 3.00 | 538 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 1.18 | 4.39 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |