Michell Miliano
P
Greensboro Grasshoppers
+0.4
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%12.8%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Padres | 7 | 5 | 15 | 74 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 16.5% | 13.5% | 1.9% | 6.60 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 11 | 11 | 28 | 142 | 34 | 19 | 2 | 16.3% | 16.7% | 2.0% | 9.21 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 18 | 0 | 21 | 107 | 35 | 26 | 3 | 22.2% | 30.4% | 3.9% | 5.14 | 7.22 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 38 | 0 | 50 | 244 | 82 | 51 | 4 | 25.2% | 24.3% | 2.5% | 4.68 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 25 | 0 | 31 | 150 | 43 | 30 | 3 | 22.4% | 25.4% | 2.2% | 6.39 | 5.63 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 40 | 0 | 65 | 289 | 73 | 44 | 4 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 1.5% | 4.04 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 63 | 28 | 8 | 22.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 62 | 27 | 8 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 61 | 27 | 8 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.45 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 60 | 26 | 8 | 22.9% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 57 | 26 | 8 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 55 | 25 | 8 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 56 | — | 56 | 234 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 49 | 24 | 7 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 42 | 22 | 7 | 21.1% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 39 | 21 | 7 | 20.7% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 16 | 210 | 1006 | 211 | 213 | 22 | 21.0% | 21.2% | 2.2% | 5.53 | 5.22 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 15 | 200 | 958 | 201 | 203 | 21 | 21.0% | 21.2% | 2.2% | 5.53 | 5.22 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michell Miliano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.46 | 22.9% | 12.9% | 189 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 92 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 91 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 91 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 89 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 89 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 89 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 88 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 88 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 88 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 88 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 87 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 86 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2028 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 86 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 86 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .300 | 3.68 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.92 | 3.09 | 377 | 86 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .274 | 6.70 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.77 | 4.76 | 183 | 86 |
| Madison Younginer IV R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .370 | 4.72 | 14.0% | -5.3% | 27 | +0.50 | 3.08 | 219 | 86 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 5.86 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 49 | +2.00 | 3.86 | 157 | 85 |
| Tyler Myrick R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .307 | 5.33 | 13.0% | 4.1% | 59 | +1.59 | 3.36 | 204 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $5M | -$6M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.