Jose Espada
P
Norfolk Tides
Age 29
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 39 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%26.9%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%14.7%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL (21%)
FB (48%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 10 | 7 | 34 | 136 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 70% | 3.4 | 15.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 3.41 | 4.42 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 10 | 7 | 34 | 136 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 70% | 3.4 | 22.8% | 5.9% | 16.9% | 2.2% | 3.41 | 3.13 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 12 | 10 | 53 | 227 | 32 | 11 | 6 | 83% | 4.4 | 9.6% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 5.09 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 12 | 10 | 53 | 227 | 32 | 11 | 6 | 83% | 4.4 | 14.1% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 3.99 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 20% | 1.2 | 28.9% | 6.7% | 22.2% | 4.4% | 3.09 | 3.94 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 20% | 1.2 | 28.9% | 6.7% | 22.2% | 4.4% | 3.09 | 3.87 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 28 | 2 | 44 | 179 | 53 | 16 | 9 | 7% | 1.6 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 8.0% | 3.09 | 6.88 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 28 | 2 | 44 | 179 | 53 | 16 | 9 | 7% | 1.6 | 29.6% | 8.9% | 20.7% | 5.0% | 3.09 | 4.45 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 11 | 7 | 40 | 171 | 58 | 18 | 7 | 64% | 3.6 | 26.1% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 6.1% | 4.05 | 5.77 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 11 | 7 | 40 | 171 | 58 | 18 | 7 | 64% | 3.6 | 33.9% | 10.5% | 23.4% | 4.1% | 4.05 | 3.83 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 9 | 84 | 355 | 112 | 46 | 7 | 25% | 2.3 | 26.0% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 2.77 | 4.42 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 9 | 84 | 355 | 112 | 46 | 7 | 25% | 2.3 | 31.5% | 13.0% | 18.6% | 2.0% | 2.77 | 3.16 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 57 | 233 | 87 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.5% | 14.2% | 17.2% | 3.9% | 3.95 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 57 | 233 | 87 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 37.3% | 12.9% | 24.5% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 3.22 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 25 | 0 | 33 | 146 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.6% | 14.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.24 | 5.18 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BAL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 164 | 44 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BAL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 72 | 310 | 72 | 39 | 10 | — | — | 23.2% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 3.97 | 4.86 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 40 | 168 | 72 | 39 | 10 | — | — | 42.8% | 23.1% | 19.7% | 6.2% | 7.18 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 158 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 31 | 0 | 32 | 137 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 4.97 | 5.10 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 4.97 | 5.10 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 0 | 144 | 603 | 158 | 74 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.36 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 220 | 103 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 178 | 37 | 357 | 1492 | 332 | 168 | 65 | 21% | 2.0 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 4.3% | 3.58 | 5.03 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 21 | 200 | 835 | 186 | 94 | 36 | 21% | 2.0 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 4.3% | 3.58 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Espada (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 26.9% | 12.2% | 3.3% | — | 4.91 | 25.6% | 13.3% | 105 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 78 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 75 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 264 | 73 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.54 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.28 | 4.26 | 258 | 73 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 73 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 72 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 71 |
| Erik Goeddel R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.59 | 28.4% | 11.0% | 2.7% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.01 | 193 | 71 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 70 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 70 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.22 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .281 | 7.59 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 70 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 70 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 70 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 70 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 70 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.97 | 27.4% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.04 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 22 | +0.07 | 3.97 | 281 | 69 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 69 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .328 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.16 | 2.32 | 676 | 69 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 36 | 25.9% | 12.3% | 1.39 | 4.75 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Michael Feliz ('21) | 5 | 47 | 30.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 | 5.05 |