Jose Espada — OGILVIE

Jose Espada P Norfolk Tides

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%28.2%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%15.9%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6565

SL (21%)

FB (48%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	10	7	34	136	31	8	3	70%	3.4	15.5%	7.4%	8.1%	3.1%	3.41	4.42	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	10	7	34	136	31	8	3	70%	3.4	22.8%	5.9%	16.9%	2.2%	3.41	3.13	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	12	10	53	227	32	11	6	83%	4.4	9.6%	6.1%	3.5%	3.7%	4.92	5.09	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	12	10	53	227	32	11	6	83%	4.4	14.1%	4.8%	9.3%	2.6%	4.92	3.99	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	2	12	45	13	3	2	20%	1.2	28.9%	6.7%	22.2%	4.4%	3.09	3.94	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	2	12	45	13	3	2	20%	1.2	28.9%	6.7%	22.2%	4.4%	3.09	3.87	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	28	2	44	179	53	16	9	7%	1.6	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	7.0%	3.09	6.35	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	28	2	44	179	53	16	9	7%	1.6	29.6%	8.9%	20.7%	5.0%	3.09	4.45	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	11	7	40	171	58	18	7	64%	3.6	26.1%	12.1%	14.0%	5.6%	4.05	5.48	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	11	7	40	171	58	18	7	64%	3.6	33.9%	10.5%	23.4%	4.1%	4.05	3.83	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	9	84	355	112	46	7	25%	2.3	25.6%	13.2%	12.4%	2.7%	2.77	4.09	+0.5
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	9	84	355	112	46	7	25%	2.3	25.6%	13.2%	12.4%	2.7%	2.77	4.09	+0.5
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	9	84	355	112	46	7	25%	2.3	31.5%	13.0%	18.6%	2.0%	2.77	3.16	+1.4
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	57	233	87	30	7	0%	1.2	30.4%	12.8%	17.7%	3.7%	3.95	4.17	+0.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	57	233	87	30	7	0%	1.2	30.4%	12.8%	17.7%	3.7%	3.95	4.17	+0.3
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	57	233	87	30	7	0%	1.2	37.3%	12.9%	24.5%	3.0%	3.95	3.22	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	5	18	6	2	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.90	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	41	0	49	217	48	28	7	0%	1.2	18.9%	11.8%	7.1%	3.2%	3.12	4.75	—
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	41	0	49	217	48	28	7	0%	1.2	18.9%	11.8%	7.1%	3.2%	3.12	4.75	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	BAL	1	0	1	7	1	1	1	0%	1.3	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	13.50	11.54	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	BAL	39	0	47	206	47	27	6	0%	1.2	22.8%	13.1%	9.7%	2.9%	2.89	4.43	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	BAL	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	BAL	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	BAL	3	0	3	14	4	2	0	0%	1.1	28.2%	12.3%	15.9%	3.3%	4.44	4.44	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	BAL	3	0	3	13	4	2	0	0%	1.0	28.2%	12.3%	15.9%	3.3%	4.44	4.44	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	52	231	52	30	7	—	—	22.5%	12.9%	9.6%	3.2%	3.21	4.73	-0.1
FULL	29	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	4	18	52	30	7	—	—	282.4%	161.5%	120.8%	40.5%	38.50	21.95	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BAL	36	0	38	158	43	20	5	0%	1.0	27.4%	12.3%	15.1%	3.4%	4.54	4.61	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	BAL	34	0	36	152	42	19	5	0%	1.1	27.4%	12.3%	15.1%	3.4%	4.54	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	44	183	51	22	6	0%	1.1	28.0%	12.2%	15.8%	3.1%	4.02	3.97	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	0	200	830	232	100	27	0%	1.1	28.0%	12.2%	15.8%	3.1%	4.02	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		194	37	373	1563	344	168	62	19%	1.9	22.0%	10.8%	11.3%	4.0%	3.55	4.77	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	20	200	838	185	90	33	19%	1.9	22.0%	10.8%	11.3%	4.0%	3.55	4.77	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Espada (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	28.2%	12.3%	3.3%	—	4.61	27.4%	15.1%	38	+0.17	—	—	—
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	80
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	74
J.J. Hoover R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	27.4%	12.7%	3.5%	.360	6.40	17.2%	8.0%	96	+2.08	4.22	258	73
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	72
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	71
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	71
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	71
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	71
Erik Goeddel R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	29	SU	3.45	28.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	2.01	193	70
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	70
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	70
Brad Deppermann R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	22.7%	9.4%	3.4%	.417	2.87	19.5%	13.2%	71	-1.38	1.94	143	70
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	70
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	70
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	70
Brooks Kriske R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	30.1%	10.0%	4.3%	.379	3.75	28.2%	16.0%	127	-0.45	3.15	246	69
Zack Weiss R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	27.1%	11.5%	3.1%	.287	4.20	25.6%	15.2%	144	+0.21	3.05	368	69
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	69
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	27.8%	12.3%	1.29	4.49
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Michael Feliz ('21)	1.2	47	30.5%	9.8%	1.48	5.05
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41