Jose Espada
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 29
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP2.01
SIERA1.00
K%26.9%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%14.7%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
K†6060
SL (21%)
FB (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 10 | 7 | 34 | 136 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 15.5% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 3.41 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 12 | 10 | 53 | 227 | 32 | 11 | 6 | 9.6% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 10 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 13 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.09 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 28 | 2 | 44 | 179 | 53 | 16 | 9 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 3.09 | 6.46 | -0.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 11 | 7 | 40 | 171 | 58 | 18 | 7 | 26.1% | 12.1% | 5.6% | 4.05 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 36 | 9 | 84 | 355 | 112 | 46 | 7 | 26.0% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 2.77 | 4.06 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 46 | 0 | 57 | 233 | 87 | 30 | 7 | 31.5% | 14.2% | 3.7% | 3.95 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 7 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 7 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.59 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BAL | 23 | — | 23 | 96 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 26.9% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 32 | 139 | 33 | 19 | 4 | 23.6% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 3.18 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 61 | 28 | 8 | 26.3% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 58 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 55 | 26 | 7 | 25.4% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 52 | 25 | 7 | 25.1% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 49 | 24 | 7 | 24.7% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 45 | 23 | 7 | 24.3% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 41 | 22 | 7 | 23.9% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 160 | 37 | 334 | 1389 | 314 | 155 | 56 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 3.67 | 4.81 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 22 | 200 | 833 | 188 | 93 | 34 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 3.67 | 4.81 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Espada (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 26.9% | 12.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.63 | 25.9% | 14.0% | 160 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 84 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.40 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 79 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 77 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 76 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 74 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 74 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 74 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 74 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 264 | 74 |
| Erik Goeddel R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.43 | 28.4% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 193 | 74 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 27.4% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.25 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 22 | +0.21 | 3.95 | 281 | 73 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 73 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 72 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.10 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .281 | 7.47 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 72 |
| Art Warren R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.62 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 7.07 | 18.6% | 1.7% | 27 | +2.45 | 1.40 | 322 | 72 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 71 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 71 |
| Jake Cousins R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.50 | 27.9% | 13.3% | 3.8% | .379 | 3.49 | 34.2% | 21.9% | 38 | -1.01 | 1.11 | 160 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.