Zack Weiss

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	31	MIX2 levels	46	0	55	4.88	4.62	29.1%	13.1%	-0.0	K 25.9% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.84
2024	32	MIX3 levels	21	1	29	4.66	3.44	25.4%	9.7%	—	K 22.9% · BB 8.2% · FIP 3.66
2025	33	AAASTL	43	0	66	5.43	5.69	26.7%	12.2%	—	K 23.0% · BB 10.9% · FIP 6.65
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	35	MLBSTL	6	0	6	4.95	4.94	24.9%	10.8%	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBSTL	—	—	0	5.10	5.25	23.8%	11.2%	—
2029PROJMLE	37	MLBSTL	—	—	0	5.36	5.58	22.7%	11.7%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

K%70

FB Velo44

xwOBA vs34

CompsMark Serrano (age 33) · Brendan Donnelly (age 35) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.94

K%24.9%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p6227.2%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	64	240	90	14	5	0%	1.2	27.1%	7.0%	20.1%	2.8%	1.98	3.27	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	64	240	90	14	5	0%	1.2	37.5%	5.8%	31.7%	2.1%	1.98	1.95	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	41	167	56	13	3	0%	1.2	25.2%	10.2%	15.0%	1.4%	2.63	3.05	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	41	167	56	13	3	0%	1.2	33.5%	7.8%	25.7%	1.8%	2.63	2.27	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	2	25	122	26	21	5	9%	1.1	15.6%	25.4%	-9.8%	5.4%	6.84	7.96	-1.0
2018	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	2	25	122	26	21	5	9%	1.1	21.3%	17.2%	4.1%	4.1%	6.84	6.14	-0.5
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	27	129	30	13	5	0%	1.7	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	4.6%	7.24	5.36	—
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	27	129	30	13	5	0%	1.7	23.3%	10.1%	13.2%	3.9%	7.24	4.71	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	30	1	40	182	56	20	5	3%	1.3	27.1%	11.5%	15.5%	3.1%	4.31	3.99	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	30	1	40	182	56	20	5	3%	1.3	30.8%	11.0%	19.8%	2.7%	4.31	3.43	—
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	63	275	83	26	8	0%	1.2	27.3%	9.8%	17.5%	3.2%	4.26	3.78	+0.6
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	63	275	83	26	8	0%	1.2	30.2%	9.5%	20.7%	2.9%	4.26	3.35	+0.9
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	55	244	71	32	10	0%	1.2	25.9%	12.0%	13.8%	4.4%	4.88	4.84	-0.2
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	55	244	71	32	10	0%	1.2	29.1%	13.1%	16.0%	4.1%	4.88	4.62	-0.0
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	29	134	34	13	3	5%	1.4	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	2.6%	4.66	3.66	—
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	29	134	34	13	3	5%	1.4	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	2.6%	4.66	3.66	—
2024	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	1	29	134	34	13	3	5%	1.4	25.4%	9.7%	15.7%	2.2%	4.66	3.44	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	43	0	66	288	77	35	17	0%	1.5	23.0%	10.9%	12.1%	7.5%	5.43	6.65	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	43	0	66	288	77	35	17	0%	1.5	23.0%	10.9%	12.1%	7.5%	5.43	6.65	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	43	0	66	288	77	35	17	0%	1.5	26.7%	12.2%	14.6%	5.9%	5.43	5.69	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	0	27	118	33	13	8	0%	1.1	28.0%	11.0%	16.9%	6.8%	4.61	5.92	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	STL	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.9%	10.8%	14.2%	4.0%	4.95	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	STL	42	0	44	184	44	21	8	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.2%	12.5%	4.3%	5.10	5.25	-0.3
2029	37	MLB MLE	STL	30	0	32	135	31	16	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	11.7%	10.9%	4.6%	5.36	5.58	-0.4
2030	38	MLB MLE	STL	23	0	24	102	22	13	5	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.3%	9.2%	5.0%	5.69	5.95	-0.4
2028	36	MLB CTX	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.8%	11.2%	12.5%	4.3%	5.10	5.25	—
2029	37	MLB CTX	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.7%	11.7%	10.9%	4.6%	5.36	5.58	—
2030	38	MLB CTX	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	12.3%	9.2%	5.0%	5.69	5.95	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	0	28	120	33	13	8	0%	1.1	27.9%	11.0%	16.9%	6.7%	4.62	5.84	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	0	200	863	238	94	58	0%	1.1	27.9%	11.0%	16.9%	6.7%	4.62	5.84	-3.0
Career	—	MLE		321	4	411	1781	436	199	72	1%	1.3	24.5%	11.2%	13.3%	4.0%	4.41	4.66	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	2	200	867	212	97	35	1%	1.3	24.5%	11.2%	13.3%	4.0%	4.41	4.66	-2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 66 IPFIP 5.62 → 6.65 (+1.03)K% 26.7% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.74%	—	×0.860	22.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.15%	—	×0.900	10.94%
HR / BF /BF	5.90%	÷0.869	×1.100	7.48%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 5.62 → 6.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 25 IPFIP 3.38 → 3.66 (+0.28)K% 26.7% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.860	22.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.17%	—	×0.900	8.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.039	×1.100	2.65%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 41 IPFIP 4.10 → 4.44 (+0.34)K% 30.1% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.11%	—	×0.860	25.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.98%	—	×0.900	12.58%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.008	×1.100	3.52%

Result: FIP 4.10 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 50 IPFIP 3.31 → 3.86 (+0.55)K% 29.7% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.68%	—	×0.880	26.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.050	10.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷0.978	×1.100	3.08%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 40 IPFIP 3.40 → 3.99 (+0.58)K% 30.8% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.880	27.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.99%	—	×1.050	11.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷0.970	×1.100	3.12%

Result: FIP 3.40 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 17 IPFIP 4.73 → 5.77 (+1.04)K% 26.7% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.810	21.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.100	14.67%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.73 → 5.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARochester Red Wings · 11 IPFIP 4.27 → 4.80 (+0.53)K% 18.5% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.52%	—	×0.880	16.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.050	5.83%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷0.958	×1.100	4.25%

Result: FIP 4.27 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALouisville Bats · 11 IPFIP 7.32 → 7.96 (+0.64)K% 17.7% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.74%	—	×0.880	15.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.19%	—	×1.050	25.40%
HR / BF /BF	4.84%	÷0.988	×1.100	5.39%

Result: FIP 7.32 → 7.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Weiss (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	24.9%	10.8%	4.0%	—	5.53	22.9%	11.2%	100	+0.59	—	—	—
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	79
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	72
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	72
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	71
Toby Borland R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	35	SU	4.28	20.9%	8.1%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	248	70
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	70
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2019 · 6.14 FIP	34	SU	6.14	17.9%	14.2%	5.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	170	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	69
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	68
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	67
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	66
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	66
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	65
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	65
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	65
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	65
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	65
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	34	SU	4.50	21.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	212	62
Chris Nichting R 2001 · 4.11 FIP	35	SU	4.11	21.2%	3.7%	4.2%	.351	4.67	16.6%	13.3%	36	+0.56	4.11	103	60
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	24.4%	11.3%	1.73	4.91
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59
Jeff Jones ('80-'84, -2 WAR*)	1.0	41	22.0%*	12.4%*	1.48*	4.53*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*