Wilmy Sanchez
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
+0.0
WAR
Age 22
RHP
5'9" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2029
ERA4.83
FIP4.83
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%8.4%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | 12 | 4 | 34 | 145 | 49 | 15 | 2 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 2.0% | 2.12 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 10 | 2 | 33 | 143 | 34 | 20 | 1 | 16.2% | 17.5% | 0.6% | 2.43 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 32 | 0 | 54 | 242 | 82 | 34 | 1 | 25.4% | 16.5% | 0.5% | 3.50 | 3.31 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 46 | 0 | 61 | 291 | 75 | 50 | 6 | 20.9% | 18.9% | 2.3% | 6.05 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 4 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 53 | 33 | 6 | 22.5% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 4.83 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 62 | 260 | 60 | 36 | 6 | 23.2% | 14.0% | 2.4% | 4.51 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 57 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.64 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 60 | 28 | 7 | 23.9% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 62 | 27 | 7 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 62 | 27 | 7 | 24.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 62 | 27 | 7 | 24.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.22 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 61 | 26 | 7 | 24.4% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 59 | 26 | 7 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 24.0% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 54 | 25 | 7 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 51 | 24 | 6 | 23.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 45 | 23 | 6 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 6 | 188 | 844 | 186 | 142 | 11 | 22.0% | 16.8% | 1.4% | 3.82 | 4.12 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 110 | 6 | 200 | 896 | 198 | 151 | 12 | 22.0% | 16.8% | 1.4% | 3.82 | 4.12 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wilmy Sanchez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 22.5% | 14.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.37 | 23.8% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.46 | — | — | — |
| Luis Ramirez R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 2.8% | .278 | 3.73 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 53 | -0.96 | 3.73 | 104 | 93 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.62 | 24.4% | 16.2% | 2.8% | .328 | 4.58 | 22.6% | 7.5% | 110 | -0.04 | 4.46 | 161 | 92 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.19 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 4.3% | 292 | -0.95 | 3.54 | 367 | 91 |
| Connor Walsh R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.73 | 23.3% | 20.7% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.98 | 21.3% | 6.8% | 151 | -0.75 | 3.37 | 266 | 91 |
| Matt Brill R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.89 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 2.7% | .248 | 3.88 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 60 | -1.01 | 3.74 | 161 | 91 |
| Jonathan Teaney R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.76 | 22.5% | 19.8% | 1.9% | .328 | 5.57 | 16.4% | 0.7% | 55 | +0.81 | 4.76 | 108 | 90 |
| Alex McFarlane R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.91 | 21.9% | 19.2% | 2.2% | .344 | 4.23 | 17.8% | 3.5% | 74 | -0.68 | 4.23 | 125 | 90 |
| Isaac Stebens R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 2.1% | .328 | 4.16 | 21.1% | 5.6% | 50 | +0.02 | 4.14 | 102 | 90 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2028 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 2.7% | .298 | 4.70 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | +0.09 | 4.23 | 222 | 89 |
| Will McAffer R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.71 | 20.4% | 18.1% | 1.9% | .270 | 5.98 | 18.5% | -4.0% | 77 | +1.27 | 4.71 | 133 | 89 |
| Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.46 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.71 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 115 | -0.75 | 3.28 | 169 | 89 |
| Matt Keating R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.37 | 23.3% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.44 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 118 | +0.07 | 3.38 | 184 | 89 |
| James Proctor R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.5% | .277 | 4.39 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.41 | 3.98 | 109 | 88 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.61 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.16 | 4.10 | 174 | 88 |
| Tyler Vogel R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.87 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .305 | 4.25 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 82 | -0.62 | 3.84 | 147 | 88 |
| Alec Barger R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.51 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .289 | 4.17 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.34 | 3.86 | 242 | 88 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.10 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.90 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.80 | 4.10 | 168 | 87 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.48 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.17 | 4.31 | 107 | 87 |
| James Acuna R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.09 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 3.0% | .302 | 4.36 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.73 | 4.36 | 107 | 87 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2027 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.74 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .283 | 4.09 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.65 | 4.09 | 116 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| Totals | $5M | $13M | +$8M | ||