Aaron Walton — OGILVIE

Aaron WaltonOF Lake County Captains

Age 22 R/R 6'4" / 218 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION564 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†97

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP297

ISO151

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT43

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$21M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	63	15	5	1	1	7	21	1	6	1	238	324	397	721	159	341	30	10	324	105	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	30	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	298	42	7	226	39	-5	+1	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	30	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	324	42	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	63	15	5	1	1	7	21	1	6	1	238	324	397	721	159	341	30	10	324	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	30	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	298	42	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	30	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	298	42	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	CLE	—	564	485	103	28	2	17	51	193	24	33	3	212	318	384	701	171	309	34	9	304	92	-5	+5	+0	-3	+12	0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	CLE	—	368	302	83	22	1	15	46	98	17	21	3	275	399	503	902	228	358	27	12	398	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA RAW	CLE	—	196	161	41	13	1	7	26	50	7	12	0	255	381	478	860	224	321	26	13	379	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	CLE	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		298	33	11	312	97	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	CLE	—	573	493	104	28	2	17	52	196	24	33	3	211	316	379	696	168	307	34	9	304	92	-6	+5	-0	-3	+12	0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	43%	581	509	112	27	2	17	51	177	16	18	2	220	311	381	692	161	298	30	9	312	97	-2	+3	-0	-3	+13	1.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	58%	609	534	120	28	2	19	54	181	16	18	2	225	315	391	706	167	298	30	9	316	100	+0	+3	-0	-4	+13	1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	627	550	125	29	3	20	56	183	16	17	2	227	317	400	717	173	298	29	9	319	102	+1	+3	-0	-4	+14	1.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	68%	638	560	127	29	3	20	57	185	16	17	2	227	316	396	712	170	298	29	9	320	103	+2	+3	-0	-4	+14	1.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	68%	637	558	126	29	2	20	58	185	16	16	2	226	316	392	709	167	297	29	9	320	103	+2	+2	-0	-4	+14	1.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	68%	629	550	124	29	2	20	58	183	16	15	2	225	317	395	712	169	297	29	9	319	102	+1	+2	-1	-4	+14	1.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	619	541	121	28	2	19	57	182	16	15	2	224	316	388	704	165	296	29	9	317	101	+0	+2	-2	-4	+13	1.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	609	533	118	27	2	19	56	180	15	14	2	221	313	386	699	165	294	30	9	314	99	-1	+2	-2	-4	+13	0.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	598	523	114	26	2	18	55	179	15	13	1	218	310	379	689	161	292	30	9	310	96	-3	+2	-3	-4	+13	0.6
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	587	513	110	25	2	17	54	178	15	12	1	214	308	370	678	156	288	30	9	304	92	-6	+2	-4	-4	+13	0.2
2037	33	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	377	330	68	15	1	10	35	116	9	7	1	206	299	348	648	142	283	31	9	297	87	-6	+1	-4	-2	+8	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	43%	252	221	49	12	1	7	22	77	7	8	1	222	312	380	692	158	297	31	9	290	97	-1	+1	-0	-2	+5	0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	58%	353	310	69	16	1	11	31	105	9	10	1	223	311	387	699	165	298	30	9	296	100	+0	+2	-0	-2	+8	0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	407	357	81	19	1	13	36	119	11	11	1	227	317	395	712	168	297	29	9	299	102	+1	+2	-0	-2	+9	0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	68%	434	381	86	20	1	14	39	126	11	11	1	226	316	394	709	168	297	29	9	300	103	+1	+2	-0	-3	+9	1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	68%	433	380	86	20	1	14	39	126	11	11	1	226	316	395	711	168	297	29	9	300	103	+1	+2	-0	-3	+9	1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	68%	428	375	84	20	1	13	39	125	11	11	1	224	315	387	702	163	296	29	9	299	102	+1	+2	-1	-3	+9	0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	411	360	81	19	1	13	38	121	10	10	1	225	316	392	708	167	295	29	9	297	101	+0	+2	-1	-2	+9	0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	399	349	77	18	1	12	37	118	10	9	1	221	313	381	694	160	294	30	9	295	99	-1	+1	-2	-2	+9	0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	389	340	75	17	1	12	36	116	10	8	1	221	313	382	696	162	291	30	9	291	96	-2	+1	-2	-2	+8	0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	380	333	71	16	1	11	35	115	9	8	1	213	305	366	671	153	288	30	9	285	92	-4	+1	-2	-2	+8	0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	243	213	45	10	1	7	22	75	6	5	1	211	303	366	669	155	283	31	9	278	87	-4	+1	-3	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4129	3619	804	187	11	127	374	1223	105	102	11	222	313	385	698	163	296	30	9	295	98	-6	+16	-11	-25	+89	6.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	126	29	2	20	59	193	17	16	2	221	313	384	697	163	294	30	9	295	98	-1	+3	-2	-4	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	6591	5774	1278	296	24	200	597	1962	167	168	20	221	312	385	697	163	296	30	9	313	98	-10	+25	-18	-39	+141	10.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	126	29	2	20	59	193	16	17	2	221	312	385	697	163	295	30	9	313	98	-1	+2	-2	-4	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	8.0	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
/162	664	24	18	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
#2Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	6.1	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
/162	664	27	6	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#3Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#4Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	6.2	4,130	126	101	224	311	389	-25	+16	9.7	8.8
/162	664	20	16	-4.0	+2.5	1.6	pk7: 8
#5Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#6Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Walton (OGILVIE)	22	30→43	35→47	60	45	215/311/376	161	298	5	7	31%	9%	97	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Phillip Ervin 2014 · A	22	47→51	48→50	54→55	46	237/301/379	142	295	16	14	25%	8%	93	+0.8	207/275/323	116	264	10	20	24%	7%	70	-0.9	235/299/371	136	298	13	21	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45→44	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	211/273/334	123	271	14	11	27%	7%	72	-0.7	224/287/394	170	271	21	14	25%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Aaron Luna 2009 · A	22	42→45	50	51→45	45	210/316/367	157	290	18	7	32%	8%	97	+1.1	216/320/366	150	270	16	7	25%	8%	98	+1.2	214/321/360	146	266	16	7	24%	8%	95	+0.6
●Matt McLain 2022 · A	22	45→55	44→55	53→55	48	220/298/335	115	296	11	20	28%	9%	81	-0.1	235/317/411	176	321	19	22	30%	9%	106	+1.8	231/315/396	166	310	19	23	30%	9%	99	+1.1
●Ronny Simon 2022 · A	22	40→50	49→50	53→60	43	206/265/356	150	272	16	14	30%	7%	74	-0.6	220/270/357	137	283	15	22	27%	6%	75	-0.5	266/329/370	104	332	7	30	21%	8%	98	+0.9
●Zack Gelof 2022 · A	22	48→50	49→55	54→55	43	235/299/383	148	333	16	17	33%	8%	93	+0.8	233/296/404	171	326	21	20	33%	8%	97	+1.1	229/294/405	176	316	22	24	33%	8%	93	+0.7
✕Andy Burns 2013 · A	22	43→53	47→50	54→55	42	211/280/356	145	296	13	13	32%	7%	80	-0.2	234/282/362	128	290	11	16	22%	6%	80	-0.1	243/288/359	116	293	9	15	20%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	46	44→45	55	46	225/303/346	121	300	11	14	27%	8%	86	+0.3	225/283/333	108	304	9	9	28%	5%	75	-0.5	222/278/328	106	295	10	8	27%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Mario Lisson 2006 · A	22	46→49	43→50	57→55	49	219/303/341	122	299	9	19	28%	10%	84	+0.2	220/282/334	114	289	10	21	26%	7%	75	-0.5	230/303/360	129	300	15	8	27%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2023 · AA	22	46→55	49→55	58→55	37	233/270/393	160	293	16	19	27%	4%	84	+0.1	242/279/395	153	304	16	23	25%	4%	88	+0.4	253/291/409	156	303	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
●Jonathan India 2019 · A	22	42→52	45→50	51→50	44	205/288/330	125	297	12	10	33%	9%	76	-0.4	221/310/345	124	301	12	10	29%	9%	88	+0.5	247/345/400	152	300	17	11	22%	10%	111	+1.9
●Harrison Bader 2016 · A	22	47→56	48→55	51→55	39	238/288/382	144	305	16	17	27%	5%	88	+0.4	232/288/372	140	314	16	14	30%	5%	86	+0.3	237/325/434	197	292	24	15	26%	9%	109	+1.1
✕Chris Nelson 2008 · A	22	46→56	47→50	53→50	42	228/277/370	142	282	13	13	24%	6%	81	-0.1	229/282/356	127	285	12	12	23%	6%	80	-0.2	257/301/390	133	311	13	7	21%	5%	91	+0.5
✕Derek Fisher 2016 · A	22	43→50	50→55	55	42	218/282/367	149	303	18	18	33%	8%	82	+0.0	229/299/385	156	321	18	19	32%	8%	93	+0.8	225/302/403	177	309	23	18	33%	9%	95	+0.7
✕Nick Senzel 2017 · A	22	48→57	45→50	51→50	46	230/295/364	133	302	10	16	26%	8%	86	+0.3	251/305/391	140	330	12	14	26%	7%	96	+1.0	256/310/402	146	332	13	16	26%	7%	97	+0.7
✕Daulton Varsho 2019 · A	23	47→49	47→60	55→50	42	233/291/362	129	300	15	18	27%	6%	84	+0.2	239/303/406	167	279	19	17	21%	7%	99	+1.3	228/296/424	195	260	25	15	23%	8%	98	+1.1
✕Noelvi Marte 2023 · A	21	44→53	48→50	49→55	46	223/293/360	136	290	16	16	28%	8%	85	+0.2	236/289/364	128	302	14	19	25%	6%	84	+0.1	242/290/375	133	303	14	21	24%	5%	85	+0.1
●James Outman 2019 · A	22	39→49	47→55	53→50	39	201/258/335	134	281	16	11	34%	6%	66	-1.1	195/264/332	137	278	16	13	34%	7%	68	-1.0	227/320/420	193	316	24	14	33%	10%	108	+1.7
✕Jake Marisnick 2013 · AA	22	47→54	43→60	56→55	41	227/284/350	123	289	10	19	24%	5%	79	-0.2	231/278/351	120	296	11	23	25%	4%	77	-0.3	231/295/439	208	305	27	18	33%	6%	102	+0.7
●Justyn-Henry Malloy 2022 · A	22	45→55	44→50	47→45	48	222/295/339	117	300	12	10	29%	9%	81	-0.1	232/323/370	138	327	16	5	31%	11%	99	+1.2	232/338/377	145	320	16	5	30%	12%	104	+1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps