Aaron Walton

OF Lake County Captains

Age 23 R/R 6'4" / 218 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#239ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	71	.238/.324/.397	1	6	45	—	.185/.254/.323
2026	22	AA/A+CLE	569	.269/.393/.496	22	33	100	—	.227/.331/.407
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCLE	1	.225/.315/.384	0	0	99	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	24	MLBCLE	196	.228/.317/.390	6	5	101	0.4
2029PROJ55% MLB	25	MLBCLE	303	.229/.318/.393	9	8	102	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed90

wRC+85

Chase%85

ISO82

wOBA80

BB%73

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 79%

CompsMatt McLain (age 23) · Bo Naylor (age 23) · Anthony Volpe (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†99

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .315 / .384

PA1

HR0

K%28

BB%9

BABIP290

ISO158

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	63	15	5	1	1	7	21	1	6	1	238	324	397	721	159	341	30	10	324	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	201	166	43	14	1	7	26	52	7	12	0	259	382	482	864	223	330	26	13	380	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	368	302	83	22	1	15	46	98	17	21	3	275	399	503	902	228	358	27	12	398	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	29	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	301	41	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	201	173	39	12	1	6	19	64	7	12	0	225	327	410	737	185	305	32	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	368	316	72	18	1	12	33	124	17	21	3	228	333	405	738	177	318	34	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	29	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	314	41	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	63	15	5	1	1	7	21	1	6	1	238	324	397	721	159	341	30	10	324	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	569	489	110	30	2	17	52	188	24	33	3	225	329	399	728	174	324	33	9	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	569	468	126	36	2	22	72	150	24	33	3	269	393	496	889	226	348	26	13	392	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	29	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	301	41	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	569	488	110	30	2	17	52	188	24	33	3	225	329	400	729	174	313	33	9	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	29	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	301	41	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	569	488	110	30	2	17	52	188	24	33	3	225	329	400	729	174	313	33	9	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	539	471	106	24	2	16	48	149	15	15	2	224	315	385	700	161	289	28	9	314	99	-1	+2	+0	-3	+12	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	225	315	384	699	160	290	0	0	314	99	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	38%	517	452	103	23	2	16	46	141	14	14	2	227	317	391	708	164	290	27	9	317	101	+0	+2	+1	-3	+11	1.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	55%	546	478	109	24	2	17	49	147	14	14	2	229	318	394	712	165	290	27	9	319	102	+1	+2	+1	-3	+12	1.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	64%	552	483	110	24	2	17	50	147	14	14	2	229	318	394	713	165	290	27	9	319	102	+1	+2	+1	-3	+12	1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	551	483	111	24	2	17	50	146	13	13	2	229	317	392	710	163	290	26	9	318	101	+1	+2	+1	-3	+12	1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	67%	545	479	109	24	2	16	49	145	12	12	2	228	315	388	704	160	289	27	9	315	99	-0	+2	+0	-3	+12	1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	72%	536	471	107	23	2	16	48	144	12	11	2	226	313	382	694	156	287	27	9	311	97	-2	+1	-0	-3	+12	0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	75%	525	462	103	22	2	15	46	143	12	10	1	222	309	374	683	151	285	27	9	307	94	-4	+2	-1	-3	+11	0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	77%	512	451	99	21	2	14	45	141	11	8	2	218	304	364	668	146	282	28	9	301	90	-6	+1	-2	-3	+11	0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	38%	196	171	40	9	1	6	18	53	5	5	1	228	317	390	708	163	291	27	9	317	101	+0	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	55%	303	265	61	14	1	9	27	81	8	8	1	229	318	393	712	164	291	27	9	319	102	+1	+1	+1	-2	+7	0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	64%	351	307	71	16	1	11	32	94	9	9	1	230	319	394	712	164	291	27	9	319	102	+1	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	362	317	73	16	1	11	33	96	9	9	1	229	318	392	709	162	290	27	9	318	101	+0	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	67%	364	320	73	16	1	11	33	97	8	8	1	228	316	388	704	159	289	27	9	315	99	-0	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	72%	384	338	76	17	1	11	34	103	9	8	1	226	313	382	694	156	288	27	9	312	97	-1	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	75%	393	346	77	17	1	11	35	107	9	7	1	223	309	374	683	151	286	27	9	307	94	-3	+1	-1	-2	+9	0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	77%	395	348	77	17	1	11	35	109	9	6	1	218	304	364	668	145	282	28	9	301	90	-5	+1	-1	-2	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2748	2412	548	122	8	81	247	740	66	60	8	227	316	385	701	158	291	27	9	313	98	-7	+9	+0	-16	+60	4.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	130	29	2	19	58	175	16	14	2	228	317	385	702	158	291	27	9	313	98	-2	+2	+0	-4	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5134	4496	1014	228	20	152	459	1429	133	141	20	226	316	387	702	161	293	28	9	313	98	-9	+14	+2	-27	+97	7.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	129	29	3	19	58	181	17	18	3	227	317	388	705	162	295	28	9	313	98	-1	+2	+0	-4	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 368 PAwOBA .389 → .314 (−75)K% 26.6% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.63%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	33.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	8.98%
HBP% /PA	4.62%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	3.69%
Singles /BIP	22.06%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.008	×1.012	20.69%
Doubles /BIP	10.78%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.008	×1.012	8.91%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.008	×1.012	0.42%
Home runs /BIP	7.35%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	5.95%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .389 → .314; ISO .228 → .180; BABIP .358 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 201 PAwOBA .374 → .317 (−58)K% 25.9% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.87%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	31.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.94%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	9.44%
HBP% /PA	3.48%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	3.08%
Singles /BIP	18.42%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.969	×1.042	18.03%
Doubles /BIP	12.28%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.969	×1.042	10.66%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.969	×1.042	0.84%
Home runs /BIP	6.14%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.042	4.99%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .374 → .317; ISO .223 → .185; BABIP .330 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 71 PAwOBA .315 → .235 (−80)K% 29.6% → 40.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.58%	÷0.989	×1.360	—	—	40.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.86%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.08%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.12%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷1.071	×0.920	—	×1.015	16.60%
Doubles /BIP	11.90%	÷0.921	×0.830	—	×1.015	10.89%
Triples /BIP	2.38%	÷1.020	×0.910	—	×1.015	2.16%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷1.184	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.63%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 114, 2B 84, 3B 104, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .315 → .235; ISO .159 → .116; BABIP .341 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mark Whiten'90-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,521 PA	5.3	3,521	105	78	251*	332*	421*	-35	+22	11.8	11.5
/162	664	20	15	-6.6	+4.2	2.2	pk7: 11
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Leroy Stanton'70-'78 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,883 PA	4.3	2,883	77	36	245*	314*	430*	-33	-1	6.5	7.8
/162	664	18	8	-7.7	-0.2	1.5	pk7: 9
#4Chas McCormicklast yr '25 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,567 PA	2.4	1,567	56	37	247	321	413	+2	+14	7.3	7.3
/162	664	24	16	+0.8	+6.0	3.1	pk7: 7
#5Franklin Stubbs'84-'95 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,899 PA	4.4	2,899	104	74	229*	301*	428*	-43	+18	6.0	6.2
/162	664	24	17	-9.8	+4.2	1.4	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	4.1	2,749	80	60	227	311	386	-16	+14	6.0	5.8
/162	664	19	14	-4.0	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 6
#6Dustan Mohr'01-'07 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,537 PA	2.3	1,537	49	13	241*	315*	412*	-15	+20	3.8	3.8
/162	664	21	6	-6.6	+8.6	1.6	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Walton (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	222/312/381	159	289	6	6	28%	9%	99	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	41→51	50→55	59→55	48	209/297/370	161	292	17	24	33%	10%	89	+0.5	248/327/426	178	332	20	21	29%	9%	113	+2.3	229/312/388	159	300	18	22	28%	9%	98	+1.1
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Tyler Locklear 2024 · AA	23	48→53	51→50	53→50	46	239/324/402	162	306	18	11	27%	8%	107	+1.8	243/321/392	149	323	16	12	28%	8%	103	+1.5	245/324/392	147	326	16	13	28%	8%	102	+1.2
✕Aaron Luna 2010 · AA	23	41→46	50	49→45	46	207/315/368	161	265	17	8	27%	8%	97	+1.1	228/330/374	146	284	16	8	24%	9%	103	+1.6	228/337/371	143	283	17	6	24%	9%	103	+1.0
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	213/278/339	126	273	14	11	26%	8%	74	-0.5	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
●Davis Schneider 2023 · AAA	24	42→45	50→55	53→50	47	209/294/363	154	302	17	13	34%	10%	86	+0.3	219/320/402	183	292	21	10	30%	12%	105	+1.7	212/323/402	190	276	23	9	30%	13%	106	+1.4
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	46→51	52→55	49→50	45	236/302/402	166	297	20	12	27%	7%	98	+1.2	247/306/406	159	329	18	11	29%	7%	100	+1.3	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	43→41	51→50	52→55	45	223/290/390	167	279	19	17	27%	8%	91	+0.7	180/256/301	121	262	15	21	35%	8%	59	-1.7	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Eguy Rosario 2023 · AAA	23	48→54	48→55	52→55	45	238/301/386	148	304	14	21	26%	7%	94	+0.9	222/284/374	152	291	16	17	28%	7%	85	+0.2	202/265/351	149	268	17	17	30%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Joe Benson 2011 · AA	23	46→52	53→55	51→50	42	231/304/411	181	319	19	16	32%	7%	101	+1.4	221/288/375	154	306	15	14	31%	7%	86	+0.3	208/274/344	136	292	12	14	31%	7%	72	-0.5
✕Lewis Brinson 2017 · AAA	23	48→55	51→55	52→50	40	243/287/408	165	311	18	15	28%	5%	94	+0.9	221/272/370	149	289	16	12	28%	5%	79	-0.2	235/276/408	173	305	22	8	30%	5%	88	+0.2
✕Jordan Beck 2024 · AA	23	43→49	51→50	50	46	220/290/383	163	296	19	13	31%	9%	89	+0.5	226/286/364	138	314	14	16	31%	8%	83	+0.1	224/283/356	132	309	13	18	30%	7%	80	-0.1
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	46→53	52→55	52→55	44	230/294/392	162	319	20	13	33%	8%	93	+0.8	234/299/408	174	324	21	23	32%	8%	99	+1.2	228/297/401	173	313	21	27	33%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Ryan Ritter 2024 · AA	23	44→48	49→50	52→50	40	214/290/365	152	331	17	14	38%	8%	86	+0.3	231/304/361	130	324	13	14	31%	7%	90	+0.6	239/315/362	122	327	11	14	28%	7%	91	+0.4
●Ronny Simon 2023 · AA	23	39→49	52→50	56→60	39	213/257/378	165	265	21	22	29%	5%	76	-0.4	236/292/361	125	301	12	24	24%	7%	84	+0.2	273/337/383	110	340	8	30	21%	8%	103	+1.3
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	40→37	53→60	56→55	45	215/274/388	172	252	21	15	24%	7%	84	+0.2	225/290/408	183	256	22	16	22%	7%	95	+1.0	223/291/402	179	250	21	19	20%	7%	93	+0.5

Aaron Walton

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps