Aaron Walton — OGILVIE

Aaron WaltonOF Lake County Captains

Age 22 R/R 6'4" / 218 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION368 act + 245 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .312 / .378

PA245

HR7

SB10

K%32

BB%9

BABIP307

ISO159

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT43

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$8M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$14M		$45M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	11	4	1	1	5	30	1	6	1	169	239	308	547	138	294	42	7	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	63	15	5	1	1	7	21	1	6	1	238	324	397	721	159	341	30	10	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	CLE	—	368	316	68	17	1	12	33	132	17	21	3	215	322	389	712	174	324	36	9	305	92	-3	+3	+0	-2	+10	0.8
YTD	22	A+	CLE	—	368	302	83	22	1	15	46	98	17	21	3	275	399	503	902	228	358	27	12	398	163	+26	+3	+0	-2	+10	3.8
ROS	22	A+	CLE	0%	245	214	47	11	1	7	21	78	8	10	2	219	312	378	690	159	300	32	9	309	95	-1	+1	-0	-1	+7	0.5
ROS	22	MLB	CLE	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						301	0	0	285	76	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	CLE	—	369	317	68	17	1	12	33	132	17	21	3	215	322	388	710	174	322	36	9	305	92	-4	+3	-0	-2	+10	0.8
TOT	22	A+	CLE	—	613	530	115	28	2	19	54	210	25	31	5	217	318	385	703	168	316	34	9	307	93	-5	+4	-0	-4	+17	1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CLE	35%	581	510	112	25	2	17	50	181	16	16	3	220	309	376	685	157	300	31	9	308	94	-4	+2	-0	-3	+16	1.1
2028	24	MLB	CLE	46%	609	535	120	26	2	19	53	185	16	16	3	224	313	387	700	163	300	30	9	312	97	-2	+2	-0	-4	+17	1.4
2029	25	MLB	CLE	52%	627	552	124	27	2	19	54	187	16	16	3	225	312	384	696	159	300	30	9	314	99	-1	+2	-0	-4	+18	1.5
2030	26	MLB	CLE	54%	638	561	127	27	3	20	56	189	16	16	3	226	314	392	707	166	299	30	9	315	99	-1	+2	-0	-4	+18	1.6
2031	27	MLB	CLE	54%	637	560	126	27	2	20	56	189	16	16	3	225	313	388	701	163	299	30	9	315	99	-1	+2	-0	-4	+18	1.6
2032	28	MLB	CLE	54%	629	552	123	27	2	19	56	188	16	15	3	223	312	382	695	159	299	30	9	314	98	-1	+2	-1	-4	+18	1.4
2033	29	MLB	CLE	53%	619	543	121	26	2	19	56	186	15	14	2	223	313	383	696	160	298	30	9	312	97	-2	+2	-2	-4	+18	1.2
2034	30	MLB	CLE	52%	609	534	117	25	2	18	55	184	15	14	2	219	310	375	684	155	296	30	9	309	95	-4	+2	-2	-4	+17	1.0
2035	31	MLB	CLE	52%	598	524	114	25	2	17	54	183	15	13	2	218	309	370	679	153	294	31	9	305	92	-6	+2	-3	-4	+17	0.7
2036	32	MLB	CLE	52%	587	515	109	23	2	16	53	182	14	12	2	212	302	357	660	146	290	31	9	300	87	-8	+2	-4	-4	+17	0.3
2037	33	MLB	CLE	52%	507	445	92	19	1	14	45	160	12	10	2	207	297	348	645	142	285	32	9	293	82	-10	+1	-4	-3	+14	-0.2
2027	23	MLB	CLE	35%	201	177	40	9	1	6	17	63	5	6	1	226	312	390	701	164	300	31	8	289	79	-5	+1	-0	-1	+6	0.0
2028	24	MLB	CLE	46%	282	249	56	12	1	9	24	86	7	8	1	225	311	390	700	165	301	30	9	293	83	-6	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.2
2029	25	MLB	CLE	52%	324	285	64	14	1	10	28	97	8	8	1	225	312	386	697	161	300	30	9	296	84	-6	+1	-0	-2	+9	0.3
2030	26	MLB	CLE	54%	346	304	69	15	1	11	30	103	9	9	2	227	315	391	706	164	300	30	9	297	85	-6	+1	-0	-2	+10	0.3
2031	27	MLB	CLE	54%	346	303	69	15	1	11	31	103	9	9	2	228	318	393	711	165	300	30	9	297	85	-6	+1	-0	-2	+10	0.3
2032	28	MLB	CLE	54%	341	300	68	15	1	11	30	102	8	8	1	227	314	393	707	167	299	30	9	296	85	-6	+1	-1	-2	+10	0.2
2033	29	MLB	CLE	53%	329	288	64	14	1	10	30	99	8	8	1	222	313	382	695	160	298	30	9	294	83	-6	+1	-1	-2	+9	0.1
2034	30	MLB	CLE	52%	319	279	61	13	1	9	29	97	8	7	1	219	310	369	679	151	297	30	9	291	81	-7	+1	-1	-2	+9	0.0
2035	31	MLB	CLE	52%	311	272	60	13	1	9	28	95	8	7	1	221	312	375	687	154	294	31	9	287	78	-8	+1	-2	-2	+9	-0.1
2036	32	MLB	CLE	52%	304	267	56	12	1	8	27	94	7	6	1	210	299	352	651	142	290	31	9	282	74	-9	+1	-2	-2	+9	-0.3
2037	33	MLB	CLE	52%	262	231	48	10	1	7	23	83	6	5	1	208	296	351	647	143	286	32	9	275	69	-9	+1	-2	-2	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3366	2956	655	142	11	101	297	1022	83	81	13	222	310	380	690	158	299	30	9	291	81	-73	+11	-9	-20	+95	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	126	27	2	20	57	197	16	16	3	221	309	380	689	159	296	30	9	291	81	-14	+2	-2	-4	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	6957	6110	1343	292	24	206	614	2122	176	174	31	220	309	377	686	157	298	31	9	308	94	-46	+22	-18	-42	+197	11.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	125	27	2	19	57	198	16	16	3	219	307	373	680	154	297	30	9	308	94	-4	+2	-2	-4	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	63	15	5	1	1	7	21	1	6	1	238	324	397	721	159	341	30	10	324	106	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alex Gonzalezlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,150 PA	6	3,150	86	34	246	304	402	-0	+23	9.7	9.7
	/162	664	18	7	246	304	402	-0.0	+4.9	2.1	pk7: 10
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	3,365	101	80	222	308	381	-20	+13	6.1	5.7
	/162	664	20	16	222	308	381	-4.0	+2.7	1.2	pk7: 5
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Walton (OGILVIE)	22	30→43	35→47	60	45	217/318/385	168	316	19	31	34%	9%	93	+1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Phillip Ervin 2014 · A	22	47→50	48→50	54→55	46	235/299/377	141	293	16	14	25%	8%	90	+1.0	211/279/333	122	267	11	20	24%	7%	70	-0.3	232/296/372	140	294	14	21	25%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Aaron Luna 2009 · A	22	42→44	50	51→45	45	210/316/367	157	290	18	7	32%	8%	96	+1.5	216/319/370	154	271	17	7	26%	8%	98	+1.6	214/320/367	152	267	17	7	25%	8%	95	+0.9
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→48	47→55	59→55	38	216/258/360	144	272	14	15	26%	4%	68	-0.5	239/275/399	160	304	18	22	27%	4%	85	+0.7	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Ronny Simon 2022 · A	22	39→49	50	53→55	42	205/263/357	153	269	17	14	31%	7%	70	-0.3	221/270/363	142	283	16	22	27%	6%	74	-0.1	261/322/377	116	323	10	29	21%	7%	95	+1.0
●Matt McLain 2022 · A	22	45→55	44→55	53→55	48	218/295/334	116	293	11	20	28%	9%	77	+0.1	236/317/422	186	323	21	22	31%	9%	109	+2.4	231/315/405	174	310	20	23	30%	9%	102	+1.7
✕Andy Burns 2013 · A	22	41→51	47→50	54→55	41	205/273/349	144	294	13	13	34%	7%	72	-0.2	233/279/364	131	293	11	16	24%	6%	77	+0.1	244/287/365	121	297	10	15	21%	5%	78	+0.2
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	47	44→45	55	46	225/302/347	122	301	11	14	27%	8%	83	+0.6	226/284/337	111	307	10	9	28%	5%	73	-0.1	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Mario Lisson 2006 · A	22	46→49	43→55	57→55	49	219/303/341	122	299	9	19	28%	10%	82	+0.5	220/282/336	116	290	11	21	26%	7%	72	-0.2	231/301/377	146	300	19	8	28%	7%	90	+0.7
●Zack Gelof 2022 · A	22	49→50	47→55	54→55	43	236/299/379	142	334	15	17	32%	8%	90	+1.0	235/298/420	185	327	24	20	34%	8%	101	+1.8	229/294/414	185	314	24	24	33%	8%	95	+1.2
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	44→48	43→45	51→50	41	215/278/328	113	300	10	11	30%	6%	68	-0.5	198/268/323	125	313	14	12	39%	7%	63	-0.8	237/319/364	126	339	12	15	31%	8%	92	+0.8
●Jonathan India 2019 · A	22	42→52	45→50	51→50	44	204/285/328	124	297	12	10	33%	8%	72	-0.2	221/309/342	121	304	12	10	29%	9%	86	+0.8	246/344/400	154	298	17	11	22%	10%	113	+2.3
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	51→55	44	215/274/342	127	287	12	11	29%	7%	70	-0.3	231/293/393	162	278	19	13	24%	7%	92	+1.2	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Alex Castellanos 2009 · A	22	43→49	46→55	58→50	35	215/264/350	135	301	13	18	32%	4%	68	-0.5	217/268/352	135	313	11	15	33%	4%	70	-0.3	226/288/398	173	303	17	15	30%	6%	89	+0.8
✕Noelvi Marte 2023 · A	21	44→53	49→50	49→55	46	224/295/363	140	285	17	16	27%	8%	85	+0.7	236/289/367	131	301	14	19	25%	6%	82	+0.5	242/290/380	137	303	15	21	25%	5%	84	+0.4
●Harrison Bader 2016 · A	22	48→56	48→55	52→55	39	240/287/385	145	307	16	17	27%	5%	87	+0.8	234/289/375	141	318	17	14	31%	5%	85	+0.7	235/323/425	190	291	22	15	26%	9%	105	+1.2
✕Jake Marisnick 2013 · AA	22	46→52	44→60	56→55	41	224/281/349	125	285	10	19	25%	5%	75	-0.0	231/279/352	121	296	12	23	25%	4%	75	-0.0	226/290/423	196	302	25	18	33%	6%	96	+0.7
✕Efrain Contreras 2009 · A	22	46	43→45	53→55	44	224/286/334	110	263	10	13	19%	5%	73	-0.1	202/257/282	80	288	6	8	30%	5%	46	-2.0	183/236/246	63	277	5	7	34%	5%	25	-1.3
●Derek Fisher 2016 · A	22	42→52	49→55	54→55	41	211/275/355	143	307	17	18	36%	8%	74	-0.1	230/301/385	155	327	18	19	33%	9%	93	+1.3	231/306/412	181	317	23	18	33%	9%	98	+1.2
✕Nick Senzel 2017 · A	22	47→56	44→50	51→50	46	228/291/356	128	301	9	16	26%	8%	81	+0.4	248/302/388	140	329	12	14	27%	7%	93	+1.3	253/307/401	148	331	14	16	26%	7%	96	+0.9
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	45	223/293/342	119	282	12	16	24%	7%	79	+0.3	210/268/294	84	282	6	12	26%	6%	55	-1.4	194/247/254	61	264	3	10	27%	6%	33	-0.8