Juanyerlin Duran

P FCL Red Sox

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	10	10	37	4.42	2.55	22.6%	11.0%	—	K 15.3% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.54
2026	18	ROKBOS	9	2	18	5.40	6.05	23.6%	21.3%	—	K 16.0% · BB 26.7% · FIP 7.72
2027PROJ	19	MLBBOS	3	3	14	5.68	5.68	20.3%	18.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBBOS	3	3	17	5.37	5.25	21.1%	15.4%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJanser Lara (age 19) · Keegan Zinn (age 19) · Junior Mieses (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%20.3%

BB%18.0%

K-BB%2.3%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	10	10	37	164	37	18	0	100%	3.7	15.3%	13.7%	1.6%	0.0%	4.42	3.54	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	10	10	37	164	37	18	0	100%	3.7	15.3%	13.7%	1.6%	0.0%	4.42	3.54	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	10	10	37	164	37	18	0	100%	3.7	22.6%	11.0%	11.6%	0.0%	4.42	2.55	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	9	2	18	89	21	19	3	22%	2.0	16.0%	26.7%	-10.6%	4.7%	5.40	7.72	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	9	2	18	89	21	19	3	22%	2.0	16.0%	26.7%	-10.6%	4.7%	5.40	7.72	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	9	2	18	89	21	19	3	22%	2.0	23.6%	21.3%	2.2%	3.4%	5.40	6.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	BOS	3	3	14	59	12	11	2	100%	4.7	20.3%	18.0%	2.3%	3.0%	5.68	5.68	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	35	146	31	22	4	100%	4.9	21.1%	15.4%	5.7%	2.9%	5.37	5.25	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	BOS	3	3	17	72	15	11	2	100%	5.7	21.1%	15.4%	5.7%	2.9%	5.37	5.25	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	17	72	15	11	2	100%	5.7	21.1%	15.4%	5.7%	2.9%	5.37	4.87	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	176	129	24	100%	5.1	21.1%	15.4%	5.7%	2.9%	5.37	4.87	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		19	12	55	253	39	46	4	63%	2.9	15.6%	18.3%	-2.7%	1.7%	4.75	5.01	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	44	200	920	143	168	15	63%	2.9	15.6%	18.3%	-2.7%	1.7%	4.75	5.01	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juanyerlin Duran (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.68	20.3%	18.0%	3.0%	—	5.25	21.1%	5.7%	35	-0.43	—	—	—
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	88
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	86
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	85
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	85
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	83
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	83
Jaydenn Estanista R 2021 · 4.72 FIP	19	SP-	4.72	18.1%	19.2%	1.3%	.254	5.35	21.0%	2.6%	109	+0.63	4.59	230	82
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.71	17.6%	1.2%	150	+0.03	4.54	203	81
Jesús Palacios R 2024 · 5.24 FIP	19	SP-	5.24	19.7%	20.5%	2.2%	.279	4.92	20.4%	-0.6%	36	-0.32	2.43	128	81
Yosber Sanchez R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	18	SP-	5.58	14.6%	14.9%	3.3%	.315	4.61	20.2%	-5.2%	13	-0.97	3.21	200	81
Joseph Hernandez R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	18	SW	5.37	15.6%	15.0%	3.1%	.296	4.39	24.7%	8.0%	31	-0.98	4.39	260	81
Miguel Ullola R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	19	SP-	4.90	24.4%	24.8%	1.3%	.239	4.54	24.8%	7.6%	290	-0.36	3.87	511	80
Alex Santos II R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	19.4%	19.3%	1.2%	.282	6.11	18.9%	4.2%	189	+1.54	3.51	313	80
Yeriel Santos R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	19	SW	5.89	17.4%	22.9%	2.5%	.239	5.80	16.0%	-0.9%	276	-0.09	4.44	351	80
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	216	80
Yoniel Curet R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	19	SP-	5.18	21.8%	17.5%	3.1%	.205	3.80	23.9%	8.1%	273	-1.38	3.40	394	80
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	79
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	79
Ben Peoples R 2019 · 6.28 FIP	18	SW	6.28	21.8%	27.5%	2.8%	.227	4.51	23.0%	9.1%	103	-1.77	3.56	365	79
Yorman Galindez R 2022 · 4.93 FIP	19	SW	4.93	19.1%	18.3%	2.1%	.374	3.77	22.9%	6.2%	96	-1.16	3.63	201	79