Robert Alvarez

C DSL CLE Goryl

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs ROK HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1358ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL CLE Mendo…	128	.155/.250/.173	0	0	-20	—	.096/.169/.105
2026	18	ROKDSL CLE Goryl	133	.214/.382/.301	2	7	32	—	.144/.275/.198
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBPIT	243	.214/.287/.288	2	4	65	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBPIT	42	.218/.292/.299	0	1	70	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBPIT	107	.221/.295/.310	1	2	74	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%77

Whiff%73

Speed73

K%67

Chase%63

Z-Con%57

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRubén Tejada (age 19) · Nick Allen (age 19) · Luisangel Acuña (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 69 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .284 / .285

PA69

HR1

K%26

BB%8

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT53

scouting grade only

POWER36

scouting grade only

EYE63

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	128	110	17	2	0	0	13	25	1	0	0	155	250	173	423	18	193	20	10	203	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL CLE Goryl	—	133	103	22	1	1	2	26	24	2	7	1	214	382	301	683	87	253	18	20	323	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	128	114	11	1	0	0	9	31	1	0	0	96	169	105	275	9	124	24	7	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	133	111	16	1	1	1	18	29	2	7	1	144	275	198	473	54	163	22	14	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	128	114	11	1	0	0	9	31	1	0	0	96	169	105	275	9	128	24	7	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	128	110	17	2	0	0	13	25	1	0	0	155	250	173	423	18	193	20	10	203	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	133	111	16	1	1	1	18	29	2	7	1	144	275	198	473	54	181	22	14	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	—	133	103	22	1	1	2	26	24	2	7	1	214	382	301	683	87	253	18	20	323	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	128	117	11	1	0	0	9	31	1	0	0	94	169	103	272	9	124	24	7	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	133	112	16	1	1	1	18	29	2	7	1	143	275	196	471	54	163	22	14	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	128	117	11	1	0	0	9	31	1	0	0	94	169	103	272	9	124	24	7	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	133	112	16	1	1	1	18	29	2	7	1	143	275	196	471	54	163	22	14	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	PIT	0%	243	219	47	7	2	2	20	62	2	4	1	214	287	288	574	74	286	26	8	264	65	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	PIT	34%	123	111	23	3	1	1	10	31	1	2	1	218	292	301	593	83	288	25	8	271	70	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	PIT	48%	221	198	44	6	2	3	19	55	2	4	1	221	296	312	608	91	289	25	9	277	74	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	PIT	54%	333	298	67	10	2	5	28	82	4	7	2	224	299	322	621	97	290	25	8	282	77	-9	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	PIT	57%	412	370	85	13	3	7	35	101	4	8	3	227	301	330	631	103	291	25	8	286	80	-10	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	PIT	57%	445	399	92	14	3	8	38	108	5	9	3	229	303	336	640	107	292	24	9	290	82	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	PIT	57%	445	399	92	14	3	8	38	108	5	9	3	229	304	338	641	109	292	24	9	290	83	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2034	26	MLB MLE	PIT	56%	445	399	92	14	3	8	38	108	5	9	3	229	304	338	642	109	292	24	9	290	83	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2035	27	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	445	399	92	14	3	8	38	109	5	9	3	228	303	335	638	107	291	24	9	289	82	-10	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2036	28	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	445	400	90	14	3	7	38	110	4	8	3	226	301	331	631	104	290	25	9	286	80	-11	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.7
2037	29	MLB MLE	PIT	53%	445	400	89	13	3	7	38	111	4	7	3	224	298	324	622	101	289	25	9	282	77	-12	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.4
2038	30	MLB MLE	PIT	53%	445	401	89	13	3	7	37	113	4	7	4	221	294	316	610	96	287	25	8	278	74	-14	-0	-2	+8	+10	0.2
2039	31	MLB MLE	PIT	52%	426	384	83	12	2	6	35	110	4	6	5	216	289	306	595	90	284	26	8	272	70	-15	-1	-3	+8	+9	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	PIT	34%	42	38	7	1	0	0	4	11	0	1	0	218	292	299	591	81	289	26	10	270	70	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	PIT	48%	107	96	21	3	1	1	9	27	1	2	1	221	295	310	605	89	290	25	8	276	74	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	PIT	54%	181	162	36	6	1	2	15	45	2	4	1	224	298	319	617	95	291	25	8	281	77	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	PIT	57%	233	209	47	7	2	3	20	57	2	5	2	226	301	326	627	100	292	24	9	285	80	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	PIT	57%	252	226	52	8	2	4	21	61	3	5	2	228	303	333	635	105	293	24	8	288	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	PIT	57%	251	225	51	8	2	4	21	61	3	5	2	228	303	334	637	106	293	24	8	289	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	PIT	56%	251	225	51	8	2	4	21	61	3	5	2	228	303	334	637	106	292	24	8	289	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	247	221	51	8	2	4	21	61	3	5	2	227	302	332	634	104	292	25	9	287	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	244	219	50	8	2	4	21	60	2	4	2	225	300	327	627	102	291	25	9	285	80	-6	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.3
2037	29	MLB CTX	PIT	53%	238	214	47	7	2	3	20	60	2	4	2	223	297	321	618	98	289	25	8	281	77	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2038	30	MLB CTX	PIT	53%	234	210	45	7	1	3	20	59	2	4	2	220	293	313	607	93	287	25	9	276	74	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2039	31	MLB CTX	PIT	52%	222	200	43	7	1	3	18	57	2	3	3	216	289	304	592	88	284	26	8	270	70	-8	-1	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2502	2245	501	78	18	35	211	620	25	47	21	223	297	321	618	98	291	25	8	283	74	-64	+1	-4	+45	+54	3.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	130	20	5	9	55	161	6	12	5	223	297	321	617	98	291	25	8	283	74	-17	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4960	4445	979	144	33	77	425	1224	51	93	35	220	296	319	615	99	284	25	9	278	74	-122	+4	-7	+84	+102	6.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	128	19	4	10	56	160	7	12	5	220	297	317	614	98	283	25	9	278	74	-17	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL CLE Goryl · 133 PAwOBA .321 → .216 (−105)K% 18.0% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.05%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	22.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.55%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	13.62%
HBP% /PA	1.50%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	1.05%
Singles /BIP	22.78%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.972	×0.995	14.98%
Doubles /BIP	1.27%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.972	×0.995	0.73%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.972	×0.995	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	2.53%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	1.18%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .321 → .216; ISO .087 → .047; BABIP .253 → .163. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL CLE Mendoza · 128 PAwOBA .203 → .138 (−65)K% 19.5% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.53%	÷0.981	×1.220	—	—	24.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.16%	÷0.977	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.33%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.55%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷1.003	×0.680	×0.950	×1.008	11.45%
Doubles /BIP	2.35%	÷0.970	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	1.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.991	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.940	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 98, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .203 → .138; ISO .018 → .011; BABIP .193 → .124. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.9	2,572	40	47	226	297	327	+46	+28	5.3	4.8
/162	664	10	12	+11.9	+7.2	1.4	pk7: 4
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Robert Alvarez (OGILVIE)	19	48→53	31→36	47→52	63	212/284/285	73	286	1	1	26%	8%	65	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rubén Tejada 2009 · A	19	47→57	36→40	47→50	47	220/280/288	68	271	3	9	19%	6%	63	-1.4	249/304/321	72	295	3	9	16%	6%	79	-0.2	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Nick Allen 2018 · A	19	43→53	37→40	49→50	42	205/255/273	69	279	4	10	27%	6%	49	-2.4	210/260/281	71	273	2	14	22%	5%	53	-2.1	253/316/328	75	310	5	13	19%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Luisangel Acuña 2021 · A	19	46→56	37→45	51→60	54	217/290/290	73	257	3	13	16%	9%	67	-1.1	237/295/343	106	326	11	30	28%	7%	81	-0.1	250/307/357	107	337	11	39	27%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2014 · A	19	51→58	34→40	50→55	44	236/285/290	53	305	2	14	22%	6%	64	-1.3	241/294/285	44	301	1	9	19%	6%	67	-1.1	265/312/343	78	301	6	21	14%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Jadher Areinamo 2023 · A	19	47→55	35→45	45→55	47	218/278/282	64	272	2	7	20%	6%	61	-1.5	242/281/336	94	284	7	15	17%	5%	74	-0.6	248/287/352	104	282	9	18	15%	5%	79	-0.2
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	44	37→45	46→55	51	205/287/284	78	263	3	8	22%	9%	65	-1.2	197/282/292	95	244	7	14	21%	8%	65	-1.2	200/269/297	97	251	8	12	23%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→47	39→45	48→45	46	211/280/295	84	285	6	8	27%	8%	65	-1.2	225/304/318	93	298	6	8	24%	10%	79	-0.2	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Manuel Palencia 2022 · A	19	45	35→40	48→40	47	210/268/274	64	254	2	9	18%	6%	55	-1.9	216/272/269	53	248	1	6	13%	7%	55	-1.9	224/277/259	35	251	0	4	10%	6%	51	-0.5
✕Cooper Pratt 2024 · A	19	49→52	37→40	54→55	41	226/288/305	78	332	4	11	31%	6%	70	-0.9	228/299/323	95	293	8	23	23%	8%	78	-0.3	229/306/324	95	284	8	29	21%	9%	81	-0.1
✕Edinson Rincon 2010 · A	19	47→56	37→45	48→30	45	218/288/289	71	313	4	5	30%	8%	66	-1.1	233/279/353	120	293	12	2	24%	5%	78	-0.3	255/295/362	107	317	10	1	22%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Emerson Landoni 2008 · A	19	43→53	35→40	45	45	201/274/257	56	276	2	7	26%	7%	54	-2.0	223/278/293	70	290	4	8	23%	6%	63	-1.3	259/302/329	70	307	3	4	16%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Gilberto Celestino 2018 · A	19	43→53	39→45	53→55	43	206/263/292	86	288	6	12	30%	7%	57	-1.8	220/271/312	92	287	7	10	24%	6%	65	-1.2	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Samuel Gil 2024 · A	19	44→46	38→30	49→50	49	209/281/286	77	274	5	9	24%	9%	63	-1.3	207/282/262	55	276	2	9	23%	9%	58	-1.7	203/281/245	42	265	1	9	22%	9%	51	-1.5
✕Victor Rodrigues 2024 · A	19	42	37→30	47→50	51	198/275/273	75	246	5	10	21%	9%	58	-1.7	215/298/280	65	272	5	7	21%	10%	69	-0.9	213/306/263	50	270	4	5	20%	11%	66	-0.5
✕José Mejía 2024 · A	18	47→45	37→40	52→50	50	220/299/296	76	279	4	16	21%	8%	72	-0.7	209/295/292	83	249	5	20	17%	9%	70	-0.8	206/298/295	89	251	6	19	19%	10%	70	-0.4
✕Orlando Calixte 2011 · A	19	42→50	36→45	49→55	50	198/271/271	73	260	3	9	24%	9%	56	-1.9	209/250/304	95	289	8	9	29%	5%	55	-2.0	225/267/312	87	298	9	20	27%	5%	61	-0.7
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Raynel Delgado 2019 · A	19	50→56	36→40	50→60	45	226/293/294	68	335	3	11	31%	9%	69	-0.9	208/262/282	74	311	4	10	32%	6%	55	-2.0	246/311/338	92	338	7	32	27%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Ozzie Martínez 2008 · A	20	46→56	36→40	47→50	47	216/268/283	66	263	4	9	19%	6%	57	-1.8	253/296/337	84	301	5	9	17%	5%	79	-0.2	269/315/355	86	313	4	10	15%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Tim Kennelly 2006 · A	19	46→52	38→40	48→40	51	217/292/304	87	269	4	7	20%	9%	72	-0.7	214/271/302	88	296	5	6	27%	7%	63	-1.4	239/299/330	91	299	5	4	20%	6%	77	-0.2

Robert Alvarez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps