Robert Alvarez — OGILVIE

Robert AlvarezC DSL CLE Mendoza

Age 18 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 50 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .276 / .285

PA50

HR1

K%26

BB%8

BABIP253

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT46

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$8M	+$8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$8M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$7M	+$7M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.6	$6M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+1.5	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-3	$6M	+1.3	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$17M		$39M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	128	115	12	1	0	0	8	37	1	0	0	104	169	113	282	9	148	29	6	143	-32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	128	110	17	2	0	0	13	25	1	0	0	155	250	173	423	18	193	20	10	203	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	PIT	—	76	64	13	1	1	2	10	17	2	1	0	203	329	344	673	141	244	22	13	275	69	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
YTD	18	ROK	PIT	—	76	58	15	1	1	2	16	12	2	1	0	259	434	414	848	155	295	16	21	390	157	+5	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.9
ROS	18	ROK	PIT	0%	50	45	9	1	0	1	4	13	1	1	0	197	276	285	561	88	277	26	8	270	65	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
ROS	18	MLB	PIT	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		275	—	—	260	58	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	PIT	—	76	65	13	1	1	2	10	17	2	1	0	200	329	338	667	138	239	22	13	275	69	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
TOT	18	ROK	PIT	—	126	109	22	2	1	3	14	30	3	2	0	201	308	319	627	119	248	24	11	273	67	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	PIT	34%	198	176	38	6	1	3	17	50	3	3	1	216	296	312	608	97	278	25	9	277	70	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
2028	20	MLB	PIT	48%	336	298	66	10	2	6	30	83	5	5	2	221	303	329	632	107	281	25	9	285	76	-9	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.7
2029	21	MLB	PIT	54%	440	392	87	13	3	8	39	108	6	7	2	222	302	332	634	110	283	25	9	290	80	-10	+1	+0	+8	+12	1.1
2030	22	MLB	PIT	57%	514	455	103	16	4	10	46	125	8	9	3	226	308	345	654	119	284	24	9	293	82	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.4
2031	23	MLB	PIT	58%	520	461	104	16	4	10	46	126	8	9	3	226	307	343	650	117	285	24	9	294	84	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2032	24	MLB	PIT	57%	520	460	105	16	4	10	47	125	8	9	3	228	311	346	656	117	285	24	9	296	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2033	25	MLB	PIT	57%	520	460	106	16	4	11	47	125	8	9	3	230	313	354	667	124	285	24	9	296	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2034	26	MLB	PIT	57%	520	460	105	16	4	11	47	125	8	9	3	228	311	352	663	124	285	24	9	297	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2035	27	MLB	PIT	55%	520	460	105	16	4	11	47	125	8	9	3	228	311	352	663	124	285	24	9	297	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2036	28	MLB	PIT	55%	520	459	104	16	4	10	48	126	8	9	3	227	311	344	655	118	284	24	9	296	84	-9	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.5
2037	29	MLB	PIT	53%	520	459	103	16	3	10	48	127	8	9	3	224	309	338	646	113	283	24	9	294	83	-10	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.3
2038	30	MLB	PIT	53%	520	459	101	15	3	10	48	128	8	9	3	220	305	331	636	111	282	25	9	291	81	-11	+1	-2	+9	+15	1.1
2039	31	MLB	PIT	52%	504	445	97	14	3	9	47	126	7	8	3	218	303	324	626	106	280	25	9	287	78	-13	+0	-3	+9	+14	0.8
2027	19	MLB	PIT	34%	68	61	13	2	0	1	6	17	1	1	0	213	294	295	589	82	277	25	9	267	62	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	20	MLB	PIT	48%	163	146	32	5	1	3	14	40	2	3	1	219	296	329	625	110	280	25	9	273	67	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2029	21	MLB	PIT	54%	239	213	47	7	2	4	21	58	3	4	1	221	300	329	628	108	281	24	9	278	71	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2030	22	MLB	PIT	57%	291	259	58	9	2	6	26	71	4	5	2	224	304	344	648	120	282	24	9	281	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2031	23	MLB	PIT	58%	299	266	60	9	2	6	27	72	4	5	2	226	306	342	649	117	283	24	9	283	74	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2032	24	MLB	PIT	57%	296	264	59	9	2	6	26	71	4	5	2	223	303	341	644	117	284	24	9	284	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2033	25	MLB	PIT	57%	295	263	59	9	2	6	26	71	4	5	2	224	304	342	646	118	284	24	9	284	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2034	26	MLB	PIT	57%	294	262	59	9	2	6	26	71	4	5	2	225	305	344	648	118	284	24	9	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2035	27	MLB	PIT	55%	289	257	58	9	2	6	26	70	4	5	2	226	307	346	653	121	283	24	9	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2036	28	MLB	PIT	55%	286	254	58	9	2	6	26	69	4	5	2	228	310	350	660	122	283	24	9	284	75	-8	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.5
2037	29	MLB	PIT	53%	278	246	54	8	2	5	26	68	4	5	2	220	304	329	634	110	282	24	9	282	74	-8	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.4
2038	30	MLB	PIT	53%	274	243	54	8	2	5	25	68	4	4	1	222	305	333	638	111	281	25	9	279	72	-9	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.3
2039	31	MLB	PIT	52%	263	233	51	7	2	5	24	66	4	4	1	219	303	330	633	112	278	25	9	275	69	-9	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3335	2968	662	100	23	65	299	812	46	56	20	223	304	338	642	115	284	24	9	281	73	-101	+3	-4	+60	+94	5.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	128	19	4	13	58	158	9	11	4	221	302	336	637	114	281	24	9	281	73	-20	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	6330	5604	1245	188	43	120	569	1549	95	105	35	222	305	335	640	113	283	24	9	289	80	-146	+7	-7	+113	+179	15.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	127	19	4	12	58	159	10	11	4	221	303	330	633	110	282	24	9	289	80	-15	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	128	110	17	2	0	0	13	25	1	0	0	155	250	173	423	18	193	20	10	203	13	-13	+0	—	—	+4	-0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#4Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,441	66	59	225	303	340	+61	+32	9.0	7.5
	/162	664	13	11	225	303	340	+11.9	+6.2	1.7	pk7: 6
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Robert Alvarez (OGILVIE)	18	41→46	33→38	43→48	58	201/308/319	119	248	3	2	24%	11%	67	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	57	-1.2	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	62	-0.9	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	63	-0.3
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	43→46	38→45	47→55	49	203/297/279	76	256	6	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	211/299/308	97	254	9	16	20%	9%	72	-0.2	216/299/322	106	259	12	19	21%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→46	39→45	48→45	46	210/278/294	84	284	6	8	27%	8%	59	-1.1	225/302/319	94	296	6	8	24%	10%	76	+0.0	210/281/328	118	268	13	6	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	65	-0.7	213/293/327	114	268	10	14	23%	8%	75	-0.0	214/280/327	113	274	11	12	25%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Edward Duran 2022 · A	18	49→45	37→40	49→50	46	231/297/312	81	291	3	9	21%	7%	72	-0.2	217/290/287	70	281	2	8	22%	8%	63	-0.9	225/304/305	79	304	5	8	25%	8%	70	-0.2
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	46→51	41→45	48→45	46	220/292/328	108	287	7	4	25%	7%	74	-0.1	209/280/297	88	296	5	4	29%	7%	61	-1.0	232/306/347	116	310	11	3	27%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Adrian De Leon 2022 · A	18	43	38→40	49→45	42	202/274/283	81	295	6	6	32%	7%	55	-1.4	204/293/283	79	316	6	6	34%	9%	64	-0.8	155/264/219	64	269	6	3	39%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	44→46	40→50	51→65	48	211/282/302	91	281	6	10	26%	9%	63	-0.9	210/268/306	96	286	7	34	27%	7%	58	-1.2	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	44	197/261/279	83	254	5	7	24%	6%	49	-1.8	211/290/283	72	267	5	9	21%	9%	62	-0.9	219/316/271	52	272	4	10	19%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	40→45	49→30	44	198/265/288	89	272	7	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	202/288/300	98	309	8	4	34%	10%	66	-0.6	205/306/334	128	325	13	2	37%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Francisco Herrera 2012 · A	18	46	40→45	47→30	49	220/280/315	95	261	7	8	19%	7%	66	-0.6	225/284/324	99	267	9	5	19%	6%	69	-0.4	225/284/320	95	260	10	3	17%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Meibrys Viloria 2015 · A	18	45→47	40→45	46→40	48	218/285/316	97	280	7	5	24%	8%	68	-0.5	235/286/325	90	300	6	3	22%	6%	70	-0.3	247/290/366	119	318	11	2	25%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Jose Ovalles 2012 · A	18	42	40→45	47→40	52	202/296/293	91	253	8	4	22%	10%	68	-0.5	208/277/318	110	251	9	5	20%	7%	66	-0.6	202/266/322	119	235	10	4	18%	6%	59	-0.4
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	47	37→45	47→50	48	219/301/296	77	303	4	8	27%	9%	70	-0.3	210/316/279	69	269	4	14	21%	11%	73	-0.1	220/318/345	125	249	16	10	18%	10%	88	+0.4
✕Jonathan Galvez 2009 · A	18	45→46	39→50	51→55	53	209/310/290	81	290	7	9	27%	11%	73	-0.1	209/281/326	117	306	11	14	33%	8%	69	-0.4	230/282/341	111	315	10	15	29%	6%	69	-0.3
✕Deiber Olivera 2012 · A	19	44	38→40	50→45	44	210/259/296	86	269	4	8	23%	6%	50	-1.7	236/277/312	76	275	3	7	15%	4%	63	-0.9	255/291/322	67	289	2	7	12%	3%	69	-0.1
✕Alexander Campos 2018 · A	18	46	37→40	39→45	51	214/291/283	68	279	4	8	23%	9%	62	-0.9	195/266/265	70	306	4	9	34%	8%	46	-2.0	215/312/294	79	295	8	4	27%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→47	41→55	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	64	-0.8	211/283/328	117	302	11	8	32%	8%	71	-0.3	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Oswaldo Linares 2022 · A	19	42	36→40	47→40	54	195/298/259	64	275	4	8	28%	12%	60	-1.0	196/296/284	88	277	8	5	29%	11%	66	-0.6	173/283/253	79	246	9	2	30%	12%	51	-0.6