Manuel Palencia
C Somerset Patriots| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | ANYY | 102 | .281/.317/.344 | 0 | 1 | 53 | — | .245/.267/.296 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 313 | .263/.311/.343 | 2 | 3 | 41 | — | .217/.253/.269 |
| 2026 | 23 | AANYY | 317 | .264/.323/.368 | 7 | 1 | 76 | — | .258/.300/.346 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBNYY | 4 | .252/.294/.353 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ39% MLB | 25 | MLBNYY | 88 | .254/.297/.362 | 2 | 1 | 84 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ56% MLB | 26 | MLBNYY | 154 | .254/.299/.366 | 3 | 2 | 86 | 0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 131 | 116 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 302 | 377 | 371 | 748 | 69 | 343 | 11 | 8 | 340 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 151 | 130 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 323 | 413 | 392 | 806 | 69 | 347 | 7 | 13 | 367 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 38 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 314 | 368 | 314 | 683 | 333 | 5 | 8 | 317 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 79 | 70 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 271 | 354 | 314 | 669 | 43 | 284 | 4 | 9 | 312 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 102 | 96 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 281 | 317 | 344 | 661 | 62 | 318 | 12 | 5 | 296 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 80 | 74 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 260 | 284 | 544 | 54 | 293 | 22 | 4 | 237 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 63 | 60 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 286 | 300 | 586 | 50 | 312 | 19 | 5 | 267 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 121 | 109 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 312 | 380 | 422 | 802 | 110 | 363 | 14 | 8 | 362 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 49 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 250 | 304 | 554 | 87 | 281 | 29 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 317 | 288 | 76 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 264 | 323 | 368 | 691 | 104 | 291 | 15 | 8 | 309 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 131 | 119 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 202 | 269 | 244 | 513 | 42 | 236 | 14 | 6 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 151 | 136 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 280 | 250 | 530 | 44 | 216 | 8 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 38 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 316 | 278 | 594 | 315 | 8 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 79 | 73 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 219 | 278 | 247 | 525 | 27 | 233 | 6 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 102 | 98 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 267 | 296 | 563 | 51 | 287 | 17 | 3 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 80 | 75 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 247 | 280 | 527 | 53 | 295 | 29 | 2 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 63 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 197 | 222 | 230 | 452 | 33 | 265 | 25 | 3 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 121 | 113 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 273 | 283 | 556 | 62 | 268 | 20 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 317 | 295 | 76 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 59 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 300 | 346 | 646 | 88 | 293 | 19 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 131 | 119 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 202 | 269 | 244 | 513 | 42 | 235 | 14 | 6 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 131 | 116 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 302 | 377 | 371 | 748 | 69 | 343 | 11 | 8 | 340 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 151 | 136 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 280 | 250 | 530 | 44 | 224 | 8 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 151 | 130 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 323 | 413 | 392 | 806 | 69 | 347 | 7 | 13 | 367 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 117 | 109 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 239 | 291 | 257 | 547 | 18 | 255 | 6 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 117 | 105 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 286 | 359 | 314 | 673 | 29 | 300 | 4 | 9 | 314 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 102 | 98 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 267 | 296 | 563 | 51 | 293 | 17 | 3 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 102 | 96 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 281 | 317 | 344 | 661 | 62 | 318 | 12 | 5 | 296 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | 4 teams | — | 313 | 295 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 75 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 246 | 258 | 504 | 47 | 278 | 24 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK RAW | 4 teams | — | 313 | 289 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 61 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 263 | 311 | 343 | 653 | 80 | 323 | 19 | 6 | 293 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 317 | 295 | 76 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 59 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 300 | 346 | 646 | 88 | 299 | 19 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | Somerset Patriots | — | 317 | 288 | 76 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 264 | 323 | 368 | 691 | 104 | 291 | 15 | 8 | 309 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 131 | 119 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 202 | 269 | 244 | 513 | 42 | 236 | 14 | 6 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 151 | 136 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 280 | 250 | 530 | 44 | 216 | 8 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 117 | 108 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 291 | 259 | 550 | 19 | 260 | 6 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 102 | 98 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 267 | 296 | 563 | 51 | 287 | 17 | 3 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | 4 teams | — | 313 | 296 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 75 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 246 | 257 | 503 | 47 | 275 | 24 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 317 | 296 | 76 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 59 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 300 | 345 | 645 | 88 | 293 | 19 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 102 | 98 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 267 | 296 | 563 | 51 | 287 | 17 | 3 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | 4 teams | — | 313 | 296 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 75 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 246 | 257 | 503 | 47 | 275 | 24 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 317 | 296 | 76 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 59 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 300 | 345 | 645 | 88 | 293 | 19 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYY | 2% | 367 | 343 | 86 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 75 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 252 | 294 | 350 | 643 | 98 | 305 | 20 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYY | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 294 | 353 | 647 | 100 | 305 | 25 | 0 | 289 | 81 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYY | 39% | 227 | 212 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 297 | 358 | 655 | 105 | 305 | 20 | 5 | 292 | 84 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYY | 56% | 276 | 257 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 298 | 362 | 661 | 109 | 304 | 21 | 5 | 295 | 86 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYY | 62% | 301 | 279 | 69 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 251 | 299 | 362 | 660 | 110 | 303 | 21 | 6 | 295 | 86 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYY | 65% | 314 | 291 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 249 | 298 | 359 | 657 | 110 | 302 | 21 | 6 | 293 | 85 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYY | 64% | 311 | 288 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 247 | 296 | 356 | 651 | 109 | 300 | 22 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -6 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | NYY | 64% | 307 | 284 | 69 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 244 | 292 | 348 | 640 | 104 | 298 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 80 | -7 | -0 | -2 | +5 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB MLE | NYY | 70% | 279 | 260 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 62 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 287 | 338 | 625 | 99 | 295 | 22 | 6 | 280 | 76 | -8 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYY | 39% | 88 | 83 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 297 | 362 | 659 | 108 | 305 | 20 | 6 | 294 | 84 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYY | 56% | 154 | 144 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 299 | 366 | 665 | 113 | 304 | 21 | 5 | 297 | 86 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYY | 62% | 185 | 171 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 252 | 299 | 366 | 665 | 114 | 303 | 21 | 6 | 297 | 86 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYY | 65% | 203 | 188 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 298 | 364 | 662 | 114 | 301 | 21 | 6 | 295 | 85 | -4 | -0 | -0 | +4 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYY | 64% | 201 | 186 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 248 | 297 | 360 | 657 | 112 | 300 | 21 | 6 | 293 | 83 | -4 | -0 | -1 | +4 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | NYY | 64% | 198 | 183 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 293 | 352 | 645 | 107 | 298 | 22 | 6 | 288 | 80 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB CTX | NYY | 70% | 195 | 181 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 288 | 342 | 630 | 102 | 295 | 22 | 6 | 282 | 76 | -6 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1224 | 1136 | 286 | 49 | 6 | 24 | 71 | 260 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 252 | 299 | 369 | 668 | 117 | 305 | 21 | 6 | 292 | 73 | -25 | -0 | -5 | +22 | +27 | 1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 152 | 26 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 138 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 252 | 300 | 370 | 670 | 118 | 305 | 21 | 6 | 292 | 73 | -14 | -0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3338 | 3102 | 750 | 125 | 10 | 44 | 183 | 655 | 22 | 28 | 14 | 242 | 289 | 331 | 620 | 89 | 291 | 20 | 5 | 276 | 73 | -46 | +0 | -7 | +39 | +48 | 3.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 146 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 128 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 242 | 289 | 333 | 622 | 91 | 291 | 20 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -14 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AASomerset Patriots · 317 PAwOBA .305 → .281 (−23)K% 15.1% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.046 | ×1.012 | 25.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.046 | ×1.012 | 3.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.046 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.30% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .305 → .281; ISO .104 → .086; BABIP .291 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Yankees · 121 PAwOBA .352 → .239 (−113)K% 14.0% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.05% | ÷1.001 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 4.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.17% | ÷1.056 | ×0.820 | ×1.021 | ×0.965 | 20.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.61% | ÷1.043 | ×0.720 | ×1.021 | ×0.965 | 5.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.008 | ×0.720 | ×1.021 | ×0.965 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.09% | ÷2.059 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.40% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 312, 1B 111, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .352 → .239; ISO .110 → .065; BABIP .363 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASomerset Patriots · 80 PAwOBA .237 → .227 (−10)K% 22.5% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.50% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.75% | ÷0.977 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 2.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷0.969 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 23.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.953 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 111, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .237 → .227; ISO .054 → .049; BABIP .293 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 63 PAwOBA .260 → .200 (−60)K% 19.0% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.985 | ×1.310 | — | — | 25.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷0.984 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 2.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.870 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 21.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.014 | ×0.780 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.850 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.969 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .260 → .200; ISO .050 → .036; BABIP .312 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ATampa Tarpons · 102 PAwOBA .291 → .247 (−44)K% 11.8% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 16.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.90% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | — | 3.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.920 | ×1.038 | — | 23.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×1.038 | — | 5.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | ×1.038 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 94, K 92, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .291 → .247; ISO .062 → .051; BABIP .318 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Yankees · 79 PAwOBA .305 → .238 (−67)K% 3.8% → 5.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 3.80% | ÷0.951 | ×1.440 | — | — | 5.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.86% | ÷0.995 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.53% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.88% | ÷0.994 | ×0.820 | ×1.045 | ×0.985 | 20.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.48% | ÷1.106 | ×0.720 | ×1.045 | ×0.985 | 3.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×1.045 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.383 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 99, 2B 121, 3B 80, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .305 → .238; ISO .043 → .029; BABIP .284 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ATampa Tarpons · 38 PAwOBA .309 → .278 (−31)K% 5.3% → 7.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 7.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷1.079 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 31.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.086 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 95, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .309 → .278; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL NYY Yankees · 151 PAwOBA .360 → .236 (−124)K% 6.6% → 8.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.62% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 8.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.58% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 8.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.66% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.33% | ÷0.994 | ×0.680 | ×0.960 | ×0.985 | 18.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.83% | ÷1.101 | ×0.600 | ×0.960 | ×0.985 | 3.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | ×0.960 | ×0.985 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.195 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .360 → .236; ISO .069 → .038; BABIP .347 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .