Manuel Palencia — OGILVIE

Manuel PalenciaC Somerset Patriots

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs AA HR +8%BB +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2030

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .279 / .331

PA298

HR5

K%25

BB%6

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50↗55

PWR

29↗34

SPD

44↗49

EYE

35↗40

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$11M	+$11M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$11M	+$9M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+1.0	$10M	+$7M
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.7	$4M	+$0.6M
Totals		$11M		$61M	+$50M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Yankees 1	131	120	29	6	0	0	7	22	3	5	2	.242	.300	.292	.592	.050	.293	17	5	.262	59	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2022	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	151	137	33	4	1	0	12	15	1	4	2	.241	.307	.285	.591	.044	.268	10	8	.265	61	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2023	20	ROK	2 teams	117	109	26	2	0	0	6	8	2	0	1	.239	.291	.257	.547	.018	.257	7	5	.251	51	-7	-0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2024	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	102	98	25	6	0	0	3	18	0	1	0	.255	.277	.316	.594	.061	.309	18	3	.254	53	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2025	22	ROK	4 teams	313	295	62	12	1	0	12	76	2	3	1	.210	.246	.258	.504	.047	.279	24	4	.225	31	-24	+0	+0	+6	+9	-1.0
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	27	25	2	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	.080	.115	.080	.195	.000	.118	33	4	.079	-81	-6	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.4
ROS	23	MLB	NYY	271	250	56	11	1	4	17	67	2	4	1	.224	.279	.324	.603	.100	.288	25	6	.276	69	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
TOT	23	MLB	NYY	298	275	58	11	1	4	18	76	2	4	1	.211	.264	.302	.566	.091	.274	26	6	.258	56	-15	+0	+0	+5	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 11%	NYY	352	322	74	14	2	7	24	85	3	6	2	.230	.289	.351	.640	.121	.289	24	7	.286	77	-9	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.8
2028	25	MLB 26%	NYY	400	365	84	16	2	8	29	95	3	7	2	.230	.292	.351	.643	.121	.290	24	7	.292	82	-8	+1	+0	+7	+11	1.1
2029	26	MLB 44%	NYY	432	394	92	18	2	9	32	102	3	8	2	.234	.296	.358	.654	.124	.291	24	7	.296	84	-8	+1	+0	+8	+12	1.3
2030	27	MLB 59%	NYY	443	402	94	18	2	10	34	105	4	8	2	.234	.300	.363	.663	.129	.291	24	8	.296	85	-7	+1	+0	+8	+13	1.4
2031	28	MLB 69%	NYY	446	405	95	18	2	10	34	107	4	7	2	.235	.300	.363	.663	.128	.291	24	8	.295	84	-8	+1	-1	+8	+13	1.3
2032	29	MLB 77%	NYY	440	400	92	18	2	9	34	107	3	7	1	.230	.295	.352	.648	.122	.290	24	8	.293	83	-9	+1	-1	+8	+12	1.2
2033	30	MLB 85%	NYY	433	393	90	17	2	9	34	106	3	7	1	.229	.295	.351	.646	.122	.289	24	8	.290	80	-10	+1	-2	+8	+12	1.0
2034	31	MLB 91%	NYY	408	370	84	16	2	8	32	102	3	5	0	.227	.294	.346	.640	.119	.288	25	8	.287	78	-10	+1	-3	+7	+12	0.7
2035	32	MLB	NYY	379	344	78	15	2	7	29	97	3	4	0	.227	.293	.343	.636	.116	.287	26	8	.282	74	-11	+1	-4	+7	+11	0.4
2036	33	MLB	NYY	340	309	68	13	1	6	26	89	2	4	0	.220	.285	.327	.612	.107	.286	26	8	.277	70	-11	+1	-4	+6	+10	0.1
2037	34	MLB	NYY	290	264	57	11	1	5	22	78	2	3	0	.216	.281	.322	.603	.106	.285	27	8	.271	66	-11	+1	-5	+5	+8	-0.2
2038	35	MLB	NYY	235	213	45	8	1	4	18	66	2	3	0	.211	.279	.315	.594	.103	.283	28	8	.264	60	-11	+1	-6	+4	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5683	5190	1184	223	24	96	405	1345	45	86	19	.228	.290	.336	.626	.108	.288	24	7	.281	73	-171	+10	-25	+101	+161	7.7
/ 162G	—			650	594	136	26	3	11	46	154	5	10	2	.229	.290	.338	.628	.109	.289	24	7	.281	73	-20	+1	-3	+12	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Yankees 1	131	116	35	8	0	0	11	15	3	5	2	.302	.377	.371	.748	.069	.343	11	8	.340	119	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2022	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	151	130	42	7	1	0	19	10	1	4	2	.323	.413	.392	.806	.069	.347	7	13	.367	139	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
2023	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	38	35	11	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	.314	.368	.314	.683	.000	.333	5	8	.317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	79	70	19	3	0	0	7	3	2	0	1	.271	.354	.314	.669	.043	.284	4	9	.312	97	-0	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2024	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	102	96	27	6	0	0	5	12	0	1	0	.281	.317	.344	.661	.062	.318	12	5	.296	85	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2025	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	80	74	17	4	0	0	3	18	0	1	0	.230	.260	.284	.544	.054	.293	22	4	.237	40	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	63	60	15	3	0	0	3	12	0	0	1	.250	.286	.300	.586	.050	.312	19	5	.267	62	-3	-0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	22	ROK	FCL Yankees	121	109	34	7	1	1	10	17	2	1	0	.312	.380	.422	.802	.110	.363	14	8	.362	135	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2025	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	49	46	10	1	0	1	2	14	0	1	0	.217	.250	.304	.554	.087	.281	29	4	.245	46	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Palencia (OGILVIE)	23	50→55	29→34	44→49	40	.224/.279/.331	.107	.288	5	5	25%	6%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Allen 2022 · AAA	23	46→56	42→40	49→50	42	.226/.274/.332	.106	.290	9	14	25%	6%	66	-0.6	.230/.285/.322	.092	.279	8	15	20%	7%	69	-0.4	.243/.303/.319	.076	.291	6	16	17%	7%	74	-0.0
✕A.J. Jimenez 2013 · AA	23	52→58	40→45	48→50	42	.250/.290/.352	.101	.309	7	12	21%	5%	79	+0.3	.236/.273/.331	.095	.290	6	6	20%	5%	66	-0.6	.230/.265/.319	.088	.282	5	3	20%	4%	57	-0.5
✕Andy Paz 2017 · AA	24	48	38→40	51→45	46	.226/.282/.305	.078	.295	6	7	24%	7%	63	-0.8	.220/.267/.287	.067	.294	4	8	25%	6%	52	-1.6	.191/.231/.209	.018	.263	0	7	26%	5%	13	-1.4
✕James Tomlin 2006 · AA	23	51→61	41→40	47→50	45	.248/.288/.351	.103	.290	8	12	18%	5%	77	+0.1	.250/.287/.345	.095	.295	5	12	16%	5%	75	-0.0	.267/.318/.352	.085	.327	2	16	18%	6%	86	+0.6
✕Tyler Smith 2015 · AA	24	49→53	41→40	48→50	48	.235/.305/.338	.103	.299	8	10	23%	8%	82	+0.5	.231/.290/.316	.085	.296	6	8	22%	7%	69	-0.4	.221/.277/.294	.073	.282	5	7	22%	6%	55	-1.1
✕Colton Welker 2021 · AA	23	46→55	42→45	47→45	41	.228/.270/.334	.106	.293	10	5	26%	5%	66	-0.6	.213/.283/.323	.110	.281	11	6	27%	8%	69	-0.4	.192/.286/.266	.074	.264	7	3	28%	10%	55	-0.4
✕Juan Fernandez 2023 · AAA	24	49→55	39→40	50	44	.233/.290/.313	.081	.299	7	9	24%	6%	69	-0.4	.234/.294/.328	.094	.285	9	11	20%	6%	75	-0.0	.229/.294/.326	.097	.267	11	11	18%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Freddy Zamora 2023 · AA	24	48→52	40	49→50	46	.228/.296/.321	.093	.303	8	11	26%	8%	74	-0.1	.216/.287/.303	.087	.295	7	14	27%	8%	66	-0.6	.211/.287/.288	.077	.283	6	16	26%	8%	58	-0.8
✕P.J. Higgins 2016 · A	23	44→54	41→45	54→40	42	.215/.265/.321	.106	.286	8	8	27%	6%	59	-1.1	.230/.300/.300	.070	.287	3	4	19%	8%	69	-0.4	.241/.304/.366	.126	.307	13	3	24%	8%	87	+0.5
✕Kevin Flores 2008 · AAA	23	46→51	44→45	47→45	41	.226/.267/.341	.115	.281	11	9	24%	5%	66	-0.6	.224/.270/.308	.084	.283	6	9	22%	5%	58	-1.2	.272/.310/.368	.096	.313	11	0	17%	4%	88	+0.5
✕Luis Perez 2014 · A	23	45	43→30	50	40	.222/.267/.338	.116	.279	10	9	24%	5%	66	-0.6	.219/.258/.331	.112	.307	10	6	30%	5%	59	-1.1	.217/.244/.347	.129	.299	11	2	31%	3%	54	-0.4
✕Diego Madero 2015 · AAA	23	50→51	41→45	48→50	43	.243/.281/.343	.101	.281	9	13	17%	4%	72	-0.2	.246/.281/.336	.090	.283	7	15	15%	4%	70	-0.3	.253/.296/.353	.099	.286	10	17	15%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Humberto Castro 2013 · AAA	22	51	41→40	53→45	42	.248/.297/.346	.097	.308	9	13	22%	5%	80	+0.4	.230/.276/.307	.077	.279	6	8	19%	4%	61	-1.0	.264/.322/.324	.060	.311	3	5	15%	5%	80	+0.1
✕Gilberto Galaviz 2015 · AAA	23	47	42→40	46→30	40	.233/.266/.338	.105	.276	10	6	20%	4%	65	-0.7	.248/.285/.331	.083	.286	7	5	15%	4%	70	-0.3	.257/.294/.304	.047	.287	3	1	11%	3%	64	-0.3
✕Brandon Douglas 2009 · AA	23	51→56	45→40	49→50	45	.251/.292/.373	.123	.278	13	11	16%	5%	85	+0.7	.270/.314/.343	.073	.311	3	11	13%	5%	85	+0.7	.277/.318/.346	.069	.321	1	14	13%	4%	84	+0.4
✕Justin Sellers 2009 · AA	23	47→53	39→45	49→50	48	.223/.285/.311	.088	.269	6	10	19%	7%	66	-0.6	.228/.293/.329	.101	.280	8	9	20%	7%	74	-0.1	.224/.295/.332	.109	.271	9	7	20%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Starlin Rodriguez 2014 · AA	24	49→54	42→45	48→50	39	.235/.286/.346	.110	.311	9	11	27%	5%	76	+0.0	.221/.276/.338	.117	.289	10	9	26%	6%	69	-0.4	.224/.283/.362	.138	.288	13	5	26%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2023 · AA	23	49→54	44→45	48→50	39	.240/.282/.355	.115	.315	13	10	28%	5%	76	+0.1	.221/.283/.311	.090	.310	9	12	30%	7%	66	-0.6	.201/.271/.275	.074	.288	7	12	31%	8%	49	-1.4
✕Justin Miller 2012 · A	23	50→53	40→45	50	44	.237/.297/.334	.097	.312	7	8	25%	7%	77	+0.1	.241/.299/.348	.107	.320	11	14	26%	7%	82	+0.5	.241/.302/.344	.103	.319	11	16	26%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Billy Fleming 2016 · AA	23	53	38→45	48→40	46	.250/.307/.336	.086	.310	5	6	20%	6%	82	+0.5	.238/.287/.349	.111	.294	9	4	21%	6%	77	+0.1	.235/.281/.357	.122	.283	11	3	21%	5%	74	-0.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)