Manuel Palencia — OGILVIE

Manuel PalenciaC Somerset Patriots

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs AA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION191 act + 127 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .293 / .287

PA127

HR0

K%21

BB%5

BABIP314

ISO42

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 56 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT56

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE43

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.3	$7M	+$5M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$5M	+$3M
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.3M
Totals		$12M		$41M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	120	28	6	0	0	7	22	3	5	2	233	292	283	576	50	283	17	5	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	116	35	8	0	0	11	15	3	5	2	302	377	371	748	69	343	11	8	340	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	137	33	4	1	0	12	15	1	4	2	241	307	285	591	44	268	10	8	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	130	42	7	1	0	19	10	1	4	2	323	413	392	806	69	347	7	13	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	2 teams	—	117	109	27	2	0	0	6	8	2	0	1	248	299	266	565	18	267	7	5	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	2 teams	—	117	105	30	3	0	0	10	5	2	0	1	286	359	314	673	29	300	4	9	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	98	23	5	0	0	3	19	0	1	0	235	257	286	543	51	287	19	3	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	96	27	6	0	0	5	12	0	1	0	281	317	344	661	62	318	12	5	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	4 teams	—	313	295	61	12	1	0	12	78	2	3	1	207	243	254	497	47	277	25	4	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	4 teams	—	313	289	76	15	1	2	18	61	2	3	1	263	311	343	653	80	323	19	6	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	NYY	—	191	176	40	4	0	0	12	36	1	1	1	227	280	250	530	23	282	19	6	239	41	-13	-0	+0	+3	+5	-0.4
YTD	23	AA	NYY	—	191	171	41	4	0	0	17	28	1	1	1	240	312	263	575	23	283	15	9	268	63	-8	-0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
ROS	23	AA	NYY	2%	127	118	29	5	0	0	7	27	1	1	1	245	293	287	580	42	318	21	5	276	69	-4	-0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
ROS	23	MLB	NYY	2%	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	333	333	333	667		319	33	0	272	67	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	23	AA	NYY	—	194	179	41	4	0	0	12	37	1	1	1	229	281	251	533	22	285	19	6	240	41	-13	-0	+0	+3	+5	-0.4
TOT	23	AA	NYY	—	318	294	69	9	0	0	19	63	2	2	2	234	285	265	550	31	294	20	6	254	52	-17	-0	+0	+6	+9	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	NYY	43%	362	337	86	15	1	4	20	76	2	4	2	255	301	341	642	86	319	21	6	290	80	-8	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.9
2028	25	MLB	NYY	62%	408	378	98	17	2	6	24	85	3	5	2	259	309	362	671	103	317	21	6	298	86	-6	+0	+0	+7	+12	1.3
2029	26	MLB	NYY	71%	436	403	104	18	2	7	27	91	3	5	2	258	309	365	674	107	316	21	6	302	89	-5	+0	+0	+8	+12	1.5
2030	27	MLB	NYY	74%	446	412	107	19	2	7	28	94	3	5	2	260	312	367	678	107	316	21	6	302	90	-5	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.6
2031	28	MLB	NYY	75%	448	413	107	19	2	7	29	95	3	5	2	259	312	366	678	107	315	21	6	301	89	-6	+0	-1	+8	+13	1.5
2032	29	MLB	NYY	74%	442	408	105	18	2	7	28	94	3	4	2	257	310	363	673	105	315	21	6	299	87	-6	+0	-1	+8	+13	1.3
2033	30	MLB	NYY	73%	434	400	101	18	1	6	28	94	3	4	1	253	306	347	654	95	314	22	6	297	85	-7	+0	-2	+8	+12	1.1
2034	31	MLB	NYY	72%	408	376	94	16	1	6	26	90	3	3	1	250	304	346	649	96	311	22	6	292	82	-8	+0	-3	+7	+12	0.8
2035	32	MLB	NYY	72%	380	351	86	15	1	5	24	85	2	2	1	245	297	336	633	91	308	22	6	287	78	-10	+0	-4	+7	+11	0.5
2036	33	MLB	NYY	78%	341	314	75	12	1	4	22	78	2	2	1	239	293	322	615	83	305	23	6	280	73	-11	+0	-4	+6	+10	0.1
2037	34	MLB	NYY	74%	290	268	63	10	1	3	18	68	2	1	0	235	288	313	602	78	299	23	6	271	66	-11	+0	-5	+5	+8	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	NYY	43%	156	145	39	7	1	2	9	33	1	2	1	269	316	372	689	103	320	21	6	287	78	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2028	25	MLB	NYY	62%	255	236	62	11	1	4	15	53	2	3	1	263	312	369	681	106	319	21	6	295	84	-5	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.7
2029	26	MLB	NYY	71%	311	287	74	13	1	5	19	65	2	3	1	258	308	362	671	105	318	21	6	299	87	-5	+0	+0	+6	+9	1.0
2030	27	MLB	NYY	74%	328	302	79	14	1	6	21	69	2	4	1	262	314	374	688	113	317	21	6	299	87	-5	+0	+0	+6	+9	1.1
2031	28	MLB	NYY	75%	335	309	80	14	1	6	21	71	2	4	1	259	310	369	679	110	317	21	6	298	87	-5	+0	-1	+6	+9	1.0
2032	29	MLB	NYY	74%	325	299	77	14	1	5	21	69	2	3	1	258	311	361	672	104	316	21	6	297	85	-5	+0	-1	+6	+9	0.9
2033	30	MLB	NYY	73%	316	291	74	13	1	5	20	68	2	3	1	254	307	357	664	103	315	22	6	294	83	-6	+0	-2	+6	+9	0.7
2034	31	MLB	NYY	72%	295	272	68	12	1	4	19	65	2	2	1	250	304	346	649	96	313	22	6	290	80	-7	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.5
2035	32	MLB	NYY	72%	274	252	63	11	1	4	18	61	2	2	1	250	305	349	654	99	310	22	7	284	76	-8	+0	-3	+5	+8	0.3
2036	33	MLB	NYY	78%	267	246	60	10	1	3	17	61	2	1	1	244	298	329	627	85	306	23	6	277	71	-9	-0	-3	+5	+8	-0.0
2037	34	MLB	NYY	74%	214	198	46	7	1	2	13	50	1	1	0	232	283	308	591	76	300	23	6	269	64	-9	+0	-4	+4	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3079	2840	723	126	11	46	193	666	20	28	10	255	307	355	662	101	316	22	6	291	81	-66	+2	-15	+55	+87	6.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	600	153	27	2	10	41	141	4	6	2	255	307	357	664	102	316	22	6	291	81	-14	+0	-3	+12	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	5336	4937	1227	211	18	62	321	1119	38	54	23	249	299	336	636	88	308	21	6	286	77	-139	+2	-20	+95	+151	9.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	601	150	26	2	8	39	136	5	7	3	250	300	339	640	90	309	21	6	286	77	-17	+0	-2	+12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	116	35	8	0	0	11	15	3	5	2	302	377	371	748	69	343	11	8	340	119	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2022	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	130	42	7	1	0	19	10	1	4	2	323	413	392	806	69	347	7	13	367	139	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
2023	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	38	35	11	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	314	368	314	683		333	5	8	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	79	70	19	3	0	0	7	3	2	0	1	271	354	314	669	43	284	4	9	312	97	-0	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2024	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	96	27	6	0	0	5	12	0	1	0	281	317	344	661	62	318	12	5	296	85	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2025	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	80	74	17	4	0	0	3	18	0	1	0	230	260	284	544	54	293	22	4	237	40	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	63	60	15	3	0	0	3	12	0	0	1	250	286	300	586	50	312	19	5	267	62	-3	-0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	22	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	121	109	34	7	1	1	10	17	2	1	0	312	380	422	802	110	363	14	8	362	135	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2025	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	49	46	10	1	0	1	2	14	0	1	0	217	250	304	554	87	281	29	4	245	46	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Dioner Navarrolast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,544 PA	12	3,544	77	14	250	308	370	+63	-1	12.1	11.6
	/162	664	14	3	250	308	370	+11.9	-0.2	2.3	pk7: 11
#3Toby Halllast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,501 PA	8	2,501	45	2	263	298	374	+32	+38	9.9	10.1
#3Toby Halllast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,501 PA	/162	664	12	1	263	298	374	+8.4	+10.1	2.6	pk7: 10
#4Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	7	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
	/162	664	19	7	254	303	396	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
#5Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,084	44	27	254	302	351	+55	+32	7.8	7.3
	/162	664	9	6	254	302	351	+11.9	+6.9	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Palencia (OGILVIE)	23	51→56	28→33	44→49	43	234/285/265	31	294	0	2	20%	6%	52	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2018 · AA	23	52→56	36→40	47→55	45	246/294/309	63	293	3	11	17%	5%	69	-0.4	244/301/332	88	293	6	12	18%	6%	78	+0.2	264/312/341	77	299	6	21	14%	5%	81	+0.3
✕Billy Fleming 2016 · AA	23	54	38→45	48→40	45	252/308/339	87	316	5	6	21%	6%	83	+0.6	238/285/355	117	293	10	4	22%	5%	77	+0.1	235/280/361	126	282	12	3	21%	5%	75	-0.0
✕Bryson Brigman 2019 · AA	24	53→59	37→40	50	45	251/300/324	73	312	4	13	20%	6%	75	-0.0	240/296/324	84	302	5	9	21%	7%	74	-0.1	236/292/330	94	300	7	11	23%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Maikol Gonzalez 2009 · A	23	52→60	37→40	48→60	47	243/295/323	80	304	3	10	20%	7%	72	-0.2	234/293/312	78	306	2	15	22%	7%	69	-0.4	255/317/323	68	317	2	25	19%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Andy Paz 2017 · AA	24	49	38→40	51→45	45	233/286/312	80	303	6	7	24%	7%	66	-0.6	214/262/283	69	291	5	9	26%	6%	48	-1.9	174/216/193	19	246	0	7	28%	5%	3	-1.6
✕Chesny Young 2016 · A	23	60→65	35→30	49→50	49	280/327/343	63	327	2	12	15%	6%	91	+1.1	255/303/318	63	308	3	11	17%	6%	75	-0.0	246/293/299	53	300	2	10	18%	6%	62	-0.7
✕Roy Morales 2018 · A	23	50	37→30	49→45	50	234/300/300	66	275	4	8	16%	7%	70	-0.3	228/291/302	74	282	4	10	19%	7%	66	-0.6	271/335/332	61	323	4	8	16%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Paco Figueroa 2006 · A	23	53→56	37→40	49→55	50	246/319/325	79	310	3	11	20%	8%	84	+0.6	250/306/327	77	304	4	16	18%	6%	79	+0.3	258/316/340	82	311	3	19	17%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Mike Dowd 2013 · A	23	52	38→40	45→40	44	247/291/331	84	291	5	6	17%	5%	73	-0.1	207/251/281	74	259	5	4	22%	4%	43	-2.2	183/221/242	59	230	5	1	22%	2%	17	-1.5
✕Carlos Garay 2018 · A	23	59→64	36→30	45→30	42	278/307/342	64	320	3	4	14%	3%	82	+0.5	259/291/337	78	310	5	5	17%	4%	74	-0.1	283/303/353	70	334	4	0	16%	2%	78	+0.1
✕Alberto Gonzalez 2006 · A	23	55→58	38→40	52→45	43	258/293/348	90	304	3	10	16%	4%	78	+0.2	252/292/346	94	288	5	8	14%	4%	77	+0.1	249/293/344	95	283	5	7	13%	4%	76	+0.0
✕Stephen Bruno 2014 · A	23	52→51	38→40	48→50	42	241/307/331	90	331	4	11	27%	6%	81	+0.4	231/290/310	79	307	4	9	25%	5%	69	-0.4	232/290/322	90	294	7	10	23%	4%	70	-0.2
✕Juan Fernandez 2023 · AAA	24	51→57	39→40	50	43	241/297/322	81	311	7	10	24%	6%	74	-0.1	241/303/348	107	291	11	11	20%	7%	84	+0.6	239/308/354	115	275	14	11	18%	7%	83	+0.4
✕Tyler Smith 2014 · A	23	49→54	39→40	50	44	230/289/323	93	288	5	11	21%	6%	71	-0.3	238/302/328	90	309	6	9	23%	8%	78	+0.2	241/302/328	87	309	6	8	23%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Brandon Douglas 2010 · AA	24	58→54	36→40	52→50	47	271/318/340	68	307	4	9	13%	5%	86	+0.8	255/296/329	74	303	2	13	16%	5%	74	-0.1	249/290/321	72	300	2	14	17%	5%	66	-0.5
✕A.J. Jimenez 2013 · AA	23	51→57	41→45	48→50	42	246/287/348	102	303	7	11	21%	5%	76	+0.0	232/269/326	94	287	6	6	21%	5%	63	-0.9	228/262/316	88	282	5	3	20%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Robinzon Diaz 2007 · A	23	57→61	37→45	50→45	44	269/298/345	76	300	3	7	12%	3%	79	+0.3	269/293/355	86	290	6	6	9%	3%	80	+0.4	277/299/362	86	291	7	3	8%	2%	82	+0.3
✕Leonardo Reginatto 2014 · A	24	57→61	36→30	47→45	45	265/307/330	65	327	2	8	19%	6%	79	+0.3	252/300/314	62	310	2	8	18%	6%	72	-0.2	248/295/303	55	305	2	7	18%	5%	65	-0.5
●Kevin Newman 2017 · AA	23	56→62	39→45	49→50	51	263/318/350	86	291	5	11	12%	6%	89	+1.0	257/298/348	91	292	6	15	14%	5%	81	+0.4	275/321/371	96	307	7	18	13%	6%	92	+0.9
✕John Brontsema 2018 · A	23	53	40→45	46→45	39	245/299/335	90	342	7	9	29%	5%	79	+0.3	221/282/318	97	324	8	11	32%	6%	67	-0.5	175/244/255	80	263	7	16	34%	5%	33	-0.7