Manuel Palencia — OGILVIE

Manuel PalenciaC Somerset Patriots

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs AA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION317 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .200 / .200

PA10

HR0

K%20

BB%5

BABIP313

ISO80

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$36M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 58 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT58

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE42

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$23M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	116	35	8	0	0	11	15	3	5	2	302	377	371	748	69	343	11	8	340	116	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2022	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	130	42	7	1	0	19	10	1	4	2	323	413	392	806	69	347	7	13	367	134	+6	+0	—	—	+3	1.0
2023	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	38	35	11	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	314	368	314	683		333	5	8	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	79	70	19	3	0	0	7	3	2	0	1	271	354	314	669	43	284	4	9	312	98	-0	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	96	27	6	0	0	5	12	0	1	0	281	317	344	661	62	318	12	5	296	87	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	80	74	17	4	0	0	3	18	0	1	0	230	260	284	544	54	293	22	4	237	47	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	63	60	15	3	0	0	3	12	0	0	1	250	286	300	586	50	312	19	5	267	67	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	22	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	121	109	34	7	1	1	10	17	2	1	0	312	380	422	802	110	363	14	8	362	131	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
2025	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	49	46	10	1	0	1	2	14	0	1	0	217	250	304	554	87	281	29	4	245	52	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	120	29	6	0	0	7	22	3	5	2	242	300	292	592	50	286	17	5	262	63	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	137	34	5	1	0	12	15	1	4	2	248	313	299	613	51	265	10	8	266	66	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2023	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	38	36	10	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	278	316	278	594		311	8	5	275	72	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	79	73	16	2	0	0	4	5	2	0	1	219	278	247	525	27	236	6	5	242	50	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	97	25	6	0	0	4	18	0	1	0	258	287	320	607	62	296	18	4	255	59	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	80	75	16	4	0	0	2	23	0	1	0	213	234	267	500	53	281	29	2	217	33	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	63	61	12	2	0	0	2	16	0	0	1	197	222	230	452	33	280	25	3	210	28	-5	-0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	121	113	25	5	1	0	6	24	2	1	0	221	273	283	556	62	278	20	5	247	53	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	120	29	6	0	0	7	22	3	5	2	242	300	292	592	50	293	17	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	116	35	8	0	0	11	15	3	5	2	302	377	371	748	69	343	11	8	340	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	137	34	5	1	0	12	15	1	4	2	248	313	299	613	51	276	10	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	130	42	7	1	0	19	10	1	4	2	323	413	392	806	69	347	7	13	367	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	117	109	26	2	0	0	6	8	2	0	1	239	291	257	547	18	257	7	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	117	105	30	3	0	0	10	5	2	0	1	286	359	314	673	29	300	4	9	314	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	97	25	6	0	0	4	18	0	1	0	258	287	320	607	62	312	18	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	96	27	6	0	0	5	12	0	1	0	281	317	344	661	62	318	12	5	296	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	4 teams	—	313	295	64	13	1	0	12	75	2	3	1	217	252	268	520	51	287	24	4	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	4 teams	—	313	289	76	15	1	2	18	61	2	3	1	263	311	343	653	80	323	19	6	293	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	120	29	6	0	0	7	22	3	5	2	242	300	292	592	50	286	17	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	137	34	5	1	0	12	15	1	4	2	248	313	299	613	51	265	10	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	117	108	26	2	0	0	6	8	2	0	1	241	291	259	550	19	260	7	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	97	25	6	0	0	4	18	0	1	0	258	287	320	607	62	296	18	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	4 teams	—	313	296	64	13	1	0	12	75	2	3	1	216	252	267	519	51	279	24	4	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	117	108	26	2	0	0	6	8	2	0	1	241	291	259	550	19	260	7	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	97	25	6	0	0	4	18	0	1	0	258	287	320	607	62	296	18	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	4 teams	—	313	296	64	13	1	0	12	75	2	3	1	216	252	267	519	51	279	24	4	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	NYY	—	317	296	72	8	0	5	16	59	1	1	1	243	284	321	605	78	284	19	5	273	71	-11	-0	+0	+6	+7	0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA RAW	NYY	—	317	288	76	9	0	7	24	48	1	1	1	264	323	368	691	104	291	15	8	309	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AA MLE	NYY	2%	10	10	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		312	20	0	284	78	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	23	AA MLE	NYY	—	327	306	74	8	0	5	16	61	1	1	1	242	282	317	599	75	283	19	5	273	71	-11	-0	+0	+6	+7	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	43%	367	342	90	14	1	6	20	71	2	2	1	263	308	363	670	99	314	19	5	298	88	-5	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	62%	411	383	101	16	1	8	23	80	2	2	1	264	309	373	682	110	313	19	6	303	91	-4	+0	+0	+7	+9	1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	71%	439	407	107	17	1	9	26	86	3	2	1	263	312	376	688	113	312	20	6	306	93	-4	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	74%	448	415	108	17	1	9	27	89	3	2	1	260	310	371	681	111	311	20	6	306	93	-4	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	75%	449	415	108	17	1	9	28	89	3	2	1	260	312	371	683	111	311	20	6	305	93	-4	+0	-1	+8	+10	1.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	74%	442	408	106	17	1	8	28	89	3	2	1	260	312	365	677	105	310	20	6	303	91	-5	+0	-1	+8	+10	1.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	73%	434	402	103	16	1	8	27	88	2	2	1	256	306	361	667	104	309	20	6	301	90	-5	+0	-2	+8	+9	1.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYY	72%	409	378	96	15	1	7	26	85	2	2	1	254	305	354	660	101	307	21	6	296	87	-6	+0	-3	+7	+9	0.7
2035	32	MLB MLE	NYY	72%	380	351	88	14	1	6	24	80	2	1	1	251	302	348	650	97	304	21	6	291	83	-8	-0	-4	+7	+8	0.4
2036	33	MLB MLE	NYY	72%	341	315	77	12	0	5	21	74	2	1	0	244	296	330	626	86	300	22	6	284	78	-9	+0	-4	+6	+7	0.1
2037	34	MLB MLE	NYY	68%	290	269	63	9	0	4	18	64	1	0	0	234	285	312	597	78	295	22	6	275	73	-9	+0	-5	+5	+6	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	43%	158	148	39	6	0	3	8	31	1	1	0	264	306	365	671	101	315	20	5	297	88	-2	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	62%	256	238	63	10	1	5	15	50	1	1	1	265	311	378	689	113	314	20	6	303	91	-3	-0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	71%	313	290	77	12	1	7	18	61	2	2	1	266	313	386	699	121	313	19	6	305	93	-3	+0	+0	+6	+7	1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	74%	330	305	81	13	1	7	20	65	2	2	1	266	315	384	699	118	313	20	6	306	93	-3	+0	+0	+6	+7	1.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	75%	336	310	82	13	1	7	21	67	2	2	1	265	315	381	696	116	312	20	6	305	93	-3	+0	-1	+6	+7	1.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	74%	325	300	80	13	1	7	20	65	2	2	1	267	317	387	703	120	312	20	6	303	91	-3	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	73%	316	291	76	12	1	6	20	64	2	1	1	261	313	371	684	110	311	20	6	300	90	-4	-0	-2	+6	+7	0.7
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYY	72%	296	274	70	11	0	6	18	61	2	1	1	255	306	361	667	106	309	21	6	296	87	-5	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.5
2035	32	MLB CTX	NYY	72%	274	254	64	10	0	5	17	58	1	1	0	252	301	350	652	98	306	21	6	290	83	-6	+0	-3	+5	+6	0.3
2036	33	MLB CTX	NYY	72%	246	228	55	8	0	4	15	53	1	1	0	241	291	329	620	88	302	22	6	283	78	-6	+0	-3	+4	+5	0.1
2037	34	MLB CTX	NYY	68%	196	181	43	6	0	3	12	44	1	0	0	238	289	320	609	83	297	22	6	275	73	-6	+0	-3	+4	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3046	2819	730	114	6	60	184	619	17	14	7	259	308	368	676	109	311	20	6	298	83	-43	+0	-14	+54	+66	6.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	155	24	1	13	39	132	4	3	1	257	307	365	672	108	309	20	6	298	83	-9	+0	-3	+12	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5234	4853	1227	196	11	79	309	1035	33	31	15	253	302	347	649	94	305	20	6	290	83	-63	+0	-20	+79	+96	9.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	152	24	1	10	38	129	4	4	2	252	300	345	645	93	304	20	6	290	83	-9	+0	-3	+12	+14	1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Dioner Navarrolast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,544 PA	5.3	3,544	77	14	250	308	370	+63	-1	12.1	11.6
/162	664	14	3	+11.9	-0.2	2.3	pk7: 11
#3Ronny Paulinolast yr '12 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,027 PA	3.1	2,027	33	4	272	324	376	+36	+25	11.2	11.2
/162	664	11	1	+11.9	+8.2	3.7	pk7: 11
#4Toby Halllast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,501 PA	3.8	2,501	45	2	263	298	374	+32	+38	9.9	10.0
/162	664	12	1	+8.4	+10.1	2.6	pk7: 10
#5Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	2.5	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
/162	664	19	7	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
#6Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.6	3,053	55	13	258	304	362	+55	+32	9.3	8.5
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+7.0	2.0	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Palencia (OGILVIE)	23	53→58	34→39	44→49	42	256/294/332	77	312	3	2	20%	5%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Billy Fleming 2016 · AA	23	54	38→45	49→40	46	255/312/343	88	317	5	6	20%	6%	87	+0.4	236/284/346	110	290	9	4	21%	6%	78	-0.3	232/278/348	116	279	10	3	20%	5%	73	-0.3
✕A.J. Jimenez 2013 · AA	23	52→58	40→45	48→50	42	248/288/348	100	305	7	11	21%	5%	79	-0.2	232/269/323	91	284	6	6	20%	5%	66	-1.1	228/262/313	85	278	4	3	19%	4%	59	-0.7
✕Carlos Garay 2018 · A	23	59→65	36→30	45→30	41	278/308/341	63	322	3	4	15%	3%	84	+0.2	260/292/338	78	307	5	5	16%	4%	78	-0.3	287/308/357	70	330	4	0	14%	2%	82	+0.0
✕Daniel Robertson 2017 · AAA	23	50→54	40→45	44→40	47	238/306/334	96	301	6	4	22%	7%	84	+0.1	235/325/345	110	307	10	5	24%	10%	94	+0.9	232/336/343	111	304	11	4	25%	11%	96	+0.6
✕Robinzon Diaz 2007 · A	23	57→61	37→45	50→45	44	269/298/345	76	300	3	7	12%	3%	81	-0.1	268/293/352	84	289	6	6	9%	3%	81	-0.1	276/298/358	82	290	6	3	7%	2%	83	+0.0
✕Andy Paz 2017 · AA	24	50	38→40	51→45	47	238/292/318	79	305	5	7	23%	7%	74	-0.6	224/272/294	70	295	5	9	24%	6%	61	-1.5	203/243/222	19	273	0	7	24%	5%	30	-1.2
✕Iván De Jesús Jr. 2011 · AAA	24	52→62	39→40	50	45	249/291/334	84	300	6	8	19%	5%	76	-0.4	246/293/334	88	317	6	7	23%	6%	78	-0.3	263/320/354	91	340	5	4	23%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Gavin Cecchini 2017 · AAA	23	53→57	40→45	46→45	49	256/306/354	98	296	7	5	16%	7%	87	+0.4	233/279/326	93	278	7	6	18%	6%	71	-0.8	220/251/302	82	269	7	8	20%	4%	52	-0.8
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2018 · AA	23	54→56	36→40	47→55	46	251/300/316	65	295	3	11	16%	5%	76	-0.4	245/303/332	87	293	5	12	17%	6%	81	-0.1	262/305/349	88	305	7	19	16%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Justin Miller 2012 · A	23	51→52	40→45	50	44	240/300/338	97	314	7	8	24%	6%	82	-0.0	238/296/342	104	317	10	14	27%	7%	81	-0.1	240/300/342	102	318	11	16	26%	6%	80	-0.1
●Francisco Cervelli 2009 · AA	23	53→62	38→45	45	48	245/330/337	92	324	4	6	23%	8%	94	+0.9	245/309/329	84	297	6	5	18%	7%	83	+0.1	257/369/378	120	318	11	4	20%	13%	115	+1.5
✕Francisco Urbaez 2022 · AAA	24	51→57	40→45	48→45	48	241/307/335	95	297	6	6	20%	7%	84	+0.1	237/300/335	98	295	8	7	21%	7%	82	-0.0	247/308/352	106	292	7	7	17%	7%	87	+0.2
●Kevin Newman 2017 · AA	23	57→62	39→45	49→50	51	270/324/358	88	297	5	11	11%	6%	95	+0.9	258/298/348	90	293	6	15	13%	5%	82	+0.0	273/317/370	97	305	8	18	13%	5%	91	+0.5
✕Mike Dowd 2013 · A	23	52	38→40	46→40	44	247/289/328	82	288	5	6	16%	4%	75	-0.5	210/254/285	75	259	5	4	20%	4%	52	-2.2	190/228/250	60	234	5	1	21%	3%	32	-1.4
✕Lou Marson 2009 · AA	23	55→54	40	44→50	51	259/332/354	95	338	7	4	24%	9%	97	+1.1	233/305/322	89	298	5	9	22%	9%	80	-0.1	206/296/289	83	260	4	13	21%	11%	68	-0.5
✕Steve Clevenger 2009 · AA	23	56→59	39→45	46→45	51	264/318/354	90	303	5	6	14%	7%	91	+0.7	265/307/362	97	306	5	5	14%	6%	89	+0.5	278/317/385	107	315	6	3	13%	5%	96	+0.6
✕Brandon Douglas 2010 · AA	24	58→55	36→40	52→50	47	271/318/339	68	307	4	9	13%	5%	88	+0.4	261/302/337	76	306	2	13	15%	5%	81	-0.1	257/298/332	75	304	2	14	15%	5%	75	-0.4
✕Tony Granadillo 2008 · AA	23	53→58	44→45	48→30	47	254/316/380	126	305	10	3	20%	7%	97	+1.1	227/298/331	104	285	7	4	22%	8%	80	-0.2	200/282/284	84	255	6	1	22%	9%	61	-1.0
✕Juan Fernandez 2023 · AAA	24	51→57	38→40	50	44	240/296/316	76	305	6	10	22%	6%	75	-0.5	238/298/332	94	287	9	11	19%	6%	80	-0.1	236/300/329	93	273	10	11	17%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Jon Gilmore 2012 · AA	23	54→58	38→40	42→30	41	257/293/340	83	319	5	3	21%	4%	78	-0.3	220/270/307	87	316	6	6	30%	6%	63	-1.4	160/207/202	43	270	0	0	38%	5%	14	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps