Samuel Gil
SS West Michigan Whitecaps| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ADET | 370 | .229/.330/.288 | 1 | 7 | 47 | — | .204/.278/.246 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+/ADET | 384 | .235/.365/.295 | 1 | 12 | 56 | — | .196/.299/.246 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+DET | 413 | .244/.327/.290 | 1 | 12 | 49 | — | .215/.280/.255 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBDET | 1 | .203/.280/.248 | 0 | 0 | 55 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBDET | 126 | .209/.286/.272 | 1 | 2 | 63 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBDET | 189 | .215/.292/.292 | 2 | 3 | 70 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 205 | 177 | 46 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 260 | 361 | 390 | 751 | 130 | 317 | 18 | 12 | 341 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers | — | 192 | 161 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 32 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 298 | 408 | 404 | 812 | 106 | 359 | 17 | 15 | 369 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 370 | 319 | 73 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 44 | 78 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 229 | 330 | 288 | 618 | 60 | 296 | 21 | 12 | 289 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 22 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 77 | 455 | 77 | 531 | 100 | 14 | 41 | 327 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 362 | 306 | 74 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 49 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 242 | 359 | 304 | 663 | 62 | 285 | 14 | 14 | 313 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 413 | 365 | 89 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 62 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 244 | 327 | 290 | 617 | 47 | 289 | 15 | 9 | 287 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 205 | 184 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 44 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 163 | 249 | 234 | 482 | 71 | 209 | 21 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 192 | 172 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 47 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 227 | 304 | 302 | 606 | 76 | 301 | 24 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 370 | 333 | 68 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 103 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 204 | 278 | 246 | 524 | 42 | 284 | 28 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 22 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 62 | 318 | 62 | 381 | 92 | 18 | 27 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 362 | 319 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 67 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 204 | 298 | 257 | 555 | 53 | 252 | 19 | 10 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 413 | 376 | 81 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 79 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 215 | 280 | 255 | 536 | 40 | 263 | 19 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 205 | 184 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 44 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 163 | 249 | 234 | 482 | 71 | 209 | 21 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 205 | 177 | 46 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 260 | 361 | 390 | 751 | 130 | 317 | 18 | 12 | 341 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 192 | 172 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 47 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 227 | 304 | 302 | 606 | 76 | 298 | 24 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Tigers | — | 192 | 161 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 32 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 298 | 408 | 404 | 812 | 106 | 359 | 17 | 15 | 369 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 370 | 333 | 68 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 103 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 204 | 278 | 246 | 524 | 42 | 289 | 28 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 370 | 319 | 73 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 44 | 78 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 229 | 330 | 288 | 618 | 60 | 296 | 21 | 12 | 289 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 384 | 335 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 71 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 197 | 299 | 248 | 547 | 51 | 247 | 18 | 11 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 384 | 319 | 75 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 59 | 52 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 235 | 365 | 295 | 659 | 60 | 278 | 14 | 15 | 314 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 413 | 376 | 81 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 79 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 215 | 280 | 255 | 536 | 40 | 268 | 19 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 413 | 365 | 89 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 62 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 244 | 327 | 290 | 617 | 47 | 289 | 15 | 9 | 287 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers 2 | — | 205 | 182 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 44 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 165 | 249 | 236 | 485 | 71 | 209 | 21 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 192 | 171 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 47 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 228 | 304 | 304 | 608 | 76 | 301 | 24 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 370 | 333 | 68 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 103 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 204 | 278 | 246 | 524 | 42 | 284 | 28 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 384 | 332 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 71 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 199 | 299 | 250 | 549 | 51 | 243 | 18 | 11 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 413 | 376 | 81 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 79 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 215 | 280 | 255 | 536 | 40 | 263 | 19 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 370 | 333 | 68 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 103 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 204 | 278 | 246 | 524 | 42 | 284 | 28 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 384 | 332 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 71 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 199 | 299 | 250 | 549 | 51 | 243 | 18 | 11 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 413 | 376 | 81 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 79 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 215 | 280 | 255 | 536 | 40 | 263 | 19 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | DET | 0% | 523 | 468 | 97 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 43 | 100 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 206 | 282 | 252 | 535 | 46 | 256 | 19 | 8 | 250 | 55 | -28 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +11 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | DET | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 280 | 248 | 528 | 45 | 253 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 55 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | DET | 35% | 364 | 325 | 69 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 69 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 213 | 289 | 277 | 566 | 64 | 259 | 19 | 9 | 262 | 63 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | DET | 46% | 408 | 365 | 80 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 77 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 218 | 295 | 298 | 593 | 79 | 261 | 19 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | DET | 52% | 455 | 407 | 90 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 86 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 222 | 298 | 311 | 610 | 90 | 263 | 19 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | DET | 54% | 475 | 425 | 95 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 91 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 223 | 300 | 320 | 620 | 96 | 264 | 19 | 9 | 283 | 77 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | DET | 58% | 480 | 430 | 96 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 93 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 224 | 300 | 322 | 622 | 98 | 265 | 19 | 9 | 283 | 78 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | DET | 56% | 477 | 428 | 95 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 93 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 222 | 298 | 317 | 616 | 95 | 265 | 19 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -14 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 59% | 467 | 419 | 92 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 93 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 296 | 311 | 607 | 92 | 263 | 20 | 9 | 277 | 74 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +10 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 56% | 456 | 409 | 89 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 92 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 292 | 304 | 596 | 87 | 262 | 20 | 9 | 273 | 71 | -16 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +10 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | DET | 35% | 126 | 112 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 209 | 286 | 272 | 558 | 63 | 255 | 19 | 9 | 259 | 63 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | DET | 46% | 189 | 169 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 215 | 292 | 292 | 584 | 77 | 257 | 19 | 8 | 269 | 70 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | DET | 52% | 235 | 210 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 218 | 295 | 305 | 600 | 87 | 259 | 19 | 9 | 275 | 75 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | DET | 54% | 258 | 231 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 297 | 313 | 610 | 93 | 260 | 19 | 9 | 279 | 77 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | DET | 58% | 280 | 251 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 54 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 297 | 315 | 612 | 95 | 261 | 19 | 9 | 279 | 78 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | DET | 56% | 269 | 241 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 53 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 295 | 310 | 606 | 92 | 261 | 20 | 9 | 277 | 76 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 59% | 276 | 247 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 293 | 305 | 597 | 89 | 260 | 20 | 9 | 273 | 74 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 56% | 255 | 228 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 51 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 289 | 298 | 587 | 84 | 258 | 20 | 9 | 269 | 71 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1888 | 1689 | 364 | 52 | 8 | 25 | 162 | 366 | 22 | 24 | 6 | 216 | 293 | 300 | 593 | 85 | 260 | 19 | 9 | 274 | 66 | -59 | +2 | -2 | +20 | +41 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 126 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 56 | 126 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 217 | 295 | 305 | 599 | 88 | 261 | 19 | 9 | 274 | 66 | -20 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5356 | 4796 | 1028 | 139 | 27 | 57 | 460 | 1078 | 67 | 100 | 24 | 214 | 292 | 290 | 582 | 76 | 264 | 20 | 9 | 266 | 66 | -124 | +6 | -4 | +41 | +82 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 125 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 56 | 131 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 215 | 293 | 290 | 583 | 76 | 264 | 20 | 9 | 266 | 66 | -21 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 413 PAwOBA .282 → .241 (−41)K% 15.0% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.01% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 19.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 23.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 2.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.27% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .282 → .241; ISO .047 → .038; BABIP .289 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 362 PAwOBA .306 → .253 (−53)K% 13.5% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.54% | ÷0.998 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.81% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 10.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.96% | ÷1.051 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×1.015 | 20.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.67% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.015 | 4.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | ×1.015 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.39% | ÷0.864 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.37% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 110, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 100, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .306 → .253; ISO .062 → .053; BABIP .285 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 22 PAwOBA .322 → .231 (−92)K% 13.6% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.960 | ×1.270 | — | — | 18.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 40.91% | ÷1.106 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 26.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 9.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.850 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 92, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .322 → .231; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .100 → .092. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 370 PAwOBA .284 → .238 (−46)K% 21.1% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.08% | ÷1.028 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.89% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.90% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×1.030 | 25.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.32% | ÷1.351 | ×0.830 | ×1.040 | ×1.030 | 2.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.66% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×1.040 | ×1.030 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.099 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.31% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 96, 2B 170, 3B 121, K 106, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .284 → .238; ISO .060 → .044; BABIP .296 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Tigers · 192 PAwOBA .362 → .274 (−88)K% 16.7% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.972 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.10% | ÷0.987 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.68% | ÷0.987 | ×0.820 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 24.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 4.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷0.924 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.32% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .362 → .274; ISO .106 → .078; BABIP .359 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Tigers 2 · 205 PAwOBA .333 → .219 (−114)K% 17.6% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.56% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 8.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.28% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | ×1.016 | ×1.008 | 14.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.80% | ÷1.047 | ×0.600 | ×1.016 | ×1.008 | 4.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.113 | ×0.600 | ×1.016 | ×1.008 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.42% | ÷0.933 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.72% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 109, 3B 123, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .333 → .219; ISO .130 → .072; BABIP .317 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).